Where Are All The Primers? Powder Valley version

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kcofohio

kcofohio

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Not to be a Debbie downer, but this came in an email yesterday. I think Powder Valley has a better pulse on things than most others! So I thought it only fitting to post here. From Powder Valley;

If you’ve tried to purchase ammo or reloading supplies lately, you’ve probably noticed a lot of products are out of stock. Of all the components needed to reload ammo, it seems primers are the toughest to find, prompting many reloaders to refer to the current crisis as “The Great Primer Shortage of 2020.” The primer supply shortage doesn’t just affect reloaders, though. It’s also limiting the production of many popular types of ammunition. This can be frustrating for shooters and hunters looking to keep their edge on the range, and can be concerning for preppers, survivalists, and others who are concerned about their safety.
We are in the midst of the greatest primer shortage of all time, and we don’t see things getting better anytime soon. Read on as the experts from Powder Valley delve deeper into the primer shortage of 2020.
Click to expand...

I realize many threads have been shut down because of rehashing of the dead horse.
But I also realize some have speculated a soon coming relief of supply.

They have a link in the email that doesn't go to an article that was suppose to be recent. So here is their most recent blog from 5/26/21;
https://www.powdervalleyinc.com/blog/
 
AJC1 is right, as much as we can love and hate it the law of supply and demand isn’t something we can change.

That said, I do think things are improving some. I’ve seen ammo prices drop. I’ve seen some powder, and a few primers from time to time. Stores are slowly getting ammo and not selling it all.

So while things aren’t going to improve as fast as we like it looks like things are slowly improving. Now don’t get me wrong. One incident, a new law, etc etc etc and things can change it in a second but right now, I don’t think it’s as bleak as OP implies. Granted it’s bad, but much better than months ago.
 
I think retailers (not manufacturers) putting out these types of memos probably serves two purposes. If the shortage is real then they can take a few days off here and there and not process orders 24/7 for once and no buyers will be the wiser.

If the shortage is letting up, they can rekindle the mania and keep the revenues coming for a bit longer while they make a business plan for if sales volume relaxes a bit and do what they have to do for that decreasing revenue stream.
 
I spoke at length yesterday with a high school buddy who moved to Singapore back in the early 90's to work for a financial software firm and has lived there ever since. The news about America in Asia is how we're going through a massive hiring shortage - not a labor shortage (we have lots of labor sitting idle) but a hiring shortage (very few people actively seeking employment). The labor numbers confirm it - 9.3 million vacancies across all industries EXCEPT public civil service jobs, which are also going unfilled but at a lower rate. All of these supply-chain industries require labor. Consider JUST shipping alone: raw materials, tooling, chemicals, finished product, boxing materials, shipping materials, truck drivers, fuel transport, mechanics, all require people - some skilled, some not so skilled and some unskilled - to get things done. Ammunition and components is a tiny industry compared to food, fuel, fabrics and medicine but those industries are also seeing shortages of labor and raw materials - thus shortages of supply. This is not just a US thing but Asia and Eastern Europe have recovered MUCH more quickly. Their markets are reflecting that recovery. Contrary to what some good people think, this isn't about "profit" it is about supply and demand. Even not-for-profit industries respond to supply and demand curves. "We" - our Federal Nanny-State - is paying people who were laid off, furloughed, or taken off schedule because the business was closing in response to government shelter-in-place, isolate and quarantine orders, more not to work than even a high-wage job pays - andm any of those service-industry jobs were not high-paying. Is it any wonder we're experiencing delays and shortages across multiple market segments?
 
kcofohio said:
Not to be a Debbie downer, but this came in an email yesterday. I think Powder Valley has a better pulse on things than most others! So I thought it only fitting to post here. From Powder Valley;



I realize many threads have been shut down because of rehashing of the dead horse.
But I also realize some have speculated a soon coming relief of supply.

They have a link in the email that doesn't go to an article that was suppose to be recent. So here is their most recent blog from 5/26/21;
https://www.powdervalleyinc.com/blog/
Click to expand...
I found this line interesting: "Foreign primers are coming into the US for OEM only use which will allow for some relief on the US manufacturers." I have to wonder if that doesn't explain the refusal of some permits to import - not just Noah at NFT but the several other firms tied to the same Canadian shipper/importer as NFT? Those "foreign primers" are NOT for OEM use... they are for retail sales.
 
blackd24 said:
I’m seeing more and more primers on a local trading site (for at least $125). I bet cabellas is getting more primers and people are still trying to flip them.
Click to expand...
Sporting goods manager at my local BPS said the same people are showing up every morning before opening asking to buy primers, ammo, and powders. They've caught some reselling them in the parking lot, illegally, to the late-comers. Unlicensed retail on a licensed retail property is illegal in Florida but its a minor offence. The other lady who works there told me a few have even said they are reselling online and there's nothing BP can do about it. She said they're right, the store can't refuse service because a customer is obnoxious. The public accommodations lawsuits would fly like bats at dusk.
 
GeoDudeFlorida said:
Sporting goods manager at my local BPS said the same people are showing up every morning before opening asking to buy primers, ammo, and powders.
Click to expand...

It is like this during every shortage. I remember extended families standing in line at Walmart at 6am, each one buying their 3 box limit of 22LR to sell online.
 
WeekendReloader said:
It is like this during every shortage. I remember extended families standing in line at Walmart at 6am, each one buying their 3 box limit of 22LR to sell online.
Click to expand...
I never saw any of that at the time. I fully expected the previous three shortages and was able to prepare so I never really noticed them. This time I saw it coming but lacked the funds to prepare accordingly. As a result, I got caught a little short on small pistol primers. At my current rate of use, assuming I run out of primers first, projectiles last, and can't reload my favorites anymore, I will run out of my top-two favorite pistol loads around 2025 and my top-two favorite rifle loads about five years from now in around 2026/27. I will run out of all rimfire .22 some time possibly in the next ten years.

2025 is only 3-1/2 years off! :eek::oops:
 
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ammoseek had primers (or links to suppliers with primers), they ranged from 14 to 40 cents each. Was happy to see them, too high priced, but that was the first time my search came up with any.
 
It is a simple process that retail stores don’t want to do.Limit the sell per person and have them scan in there driver’s license this way the same person or family member can not buy the ammo on separate transactions. This would allow places like Acadamey and Cabelas to be able to restock there shelves and it will slow down the demand.
 
I probably wouldn’t let them scan my DL but then again I haven’t bought anything this panic. I already had enough nuts so I have left the stuff I have come across on the shelves. Did see CCI .22 LR at a Walmart the other day for $3 and change per box as well as 450 BM. .223 & 7.62x39 has been on many shelves I have seen for months now. Even CCI primers at an Academy a few weeks ago $5/100. All the places have had limit signs but having not made a purchase, no idea if/how they enforce the policy.
 
blackd24 said:
I’m seeing more and more primers on a local trading site (for at least $125). I bet cabellas is getting more primers and people are still trying to flip them.
Click to expand...
Bass Pro here has primers. 1 sleeve to a customer.

LGS has got plenty of ammo. 2 boxes of each caliber per person. Powder has been showing up and primers too for the last 6-8 weeks. Powder was limit 1 to a customer. They took the sign down the other day. SPP and SRP we’re limit 2 sleeves. I bought a brick of LPP ( no limit on those) as I needed some of those since I just started loading 45 Colt. They have had a few LRP lately too.
 
GeoDudeFlorida said:
Y'all would be amazed how much supply is in the hands of reloaders who no longer reload. Horse-trading is and barter is your path to continuing through this shortage. It helps to have friends. :)
Click to expand...

That’s what We do here. There are several of Us that trade back and forth or just give the things We have to each other. I’ve given primers away. A Buddy gave Me several pounds of His extra powder.
 
AgPilot said:
Bass Pro here has primers. 1 sleeve to a customer.

LGS has got plenty of ammo. 2 boxes of each caliber per person. Powder has been showing up and primers too for the last 6-8 weeks. Powder was limit 1 to a customer. They took the sign down the other day. SPP and SRP we’re limit 2 sleeves. I bought a brick of LPP ( no limit on those) as I needed some of those since I just started loading 45 Colt. They have had a few LRP lately too.
Click to expand...


Our local Bass Pro has no limit on primers. And their ammo policy is two boxes per caliber per customer unless you use their credit card. Then it makes you eligible to six boxes. And that's per caliber also. Some of my coworkers have walked out with an armload of ammo thanks to their credit card policy.
 
GeoDudeFlorida said:
I spoke at length yesterday with a high school buddy who moved to Singapore back in the early 90's to work for a financial software firm and has lived there ever since. The news about America in Asia is how we're going through a massive hiring shortage - not a labor shortage (we have lots of labor sitting idle) but a hiring shortage (very few people actively seeking employment). The labor numbers confirm it - 9.3 million vacancies across all industries EXCEPT public civil service jobs, which are also going unfilled but at a lower rate. All of these supply-chain industries require labor. Consider JUST shipping alone: raw materials, tooling, chemicals, finished product, boxing materials, shipping materials, truck drivers, fuel transport, mechanics, all require people - some skilled, some not so skilled and some unskilled - to get things done. Ammunition and components is a tiny industry compared to food, fuel, fabrics and medicine but those industries are also seeing shortages of labor and raw materials - thus shortages of supply. This is not just a US thing but Asia and Eastern Europe have recovered MUCH more quickly. Their markets are reflecting that recovery. Contrary to what some good people think, this isn't about "profit" it is about supply and demand. Even not-for-profit industries respond to supply and demand curves. "We" - our Federal Nanny-State - is paying people who were laid off, furloughed, or taken off schedule because the business was closing in response to government shelter-in-place, isolate and quarantine orders, more not to work than even a high-wage job pays - andm any of those service-industry jobs were not high-paying. Is it any wonder we're experiencing delays and shortages across multiple market segments?
Click to expand...

I believe you are correct, it's like the perfect storm with demand far outpacing supply compounded by the weak labor force.
My trash pickup company can't keep people because they can make more $$ sitting on their butts.
Most states are ending their expanded unemployment benefits now but it will take some time before manufacturing ramps back up to full speed.
 
scott1970 said:
Our local Bass Pro has no limit on primers. And their ammo policy is two boxes per caliber per customer unless you use their credit card. Then it makes you eligible to six boxes. And that's per caliber also. Some of my coworkers have walked out with an armload of ammo thanks to their credit card policy.
Click to expand...

There was a brick limit at Bass Pro when I went there about a month ago. Then went last week and it was the one sleeve. Didn’t need them and told the guy I wasn’t standing in line for one sleeve. They have very limited ammo. And Didn’t ask what limits were. Haven’t bought factory ammo in quite awhile. I usually do business with Our LGS’s due to living in a very small town. BP is over an hour away and don’t go there very often. Luckily Our local places have had things and limit it so everyone has a chance to get what they need. But the best thing is Most People here only buy what They need instead of emptying the shelves.
 
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