Where is the proof?

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Edmond

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Where is the statistical evidence that proves that the states which have concealed carry (which is almost all of them) and/or that do not have strict gun control have less crime than states such as Chicago :D or CA?

I'm going to write a letter to the newspaper about the gun violence in Chicago and I need to back up my statements with facts, not hearsay or speculation.
 
I'm actually not convinced there is a direct correlation between violent crime and concealed carry in either direction, but here is a clip from one of my letters to the editor if it will help.

You also claim that you feel like crime will rise, but offer no
statistical proof. The actual fact is concealed carry allows the checked
out and certified good guys to protect themselves and lowers the crime
rate. The nation`s violent crime rate has decreased every year since 1991
and in 2002 hit a 23-year low. In the same period, 17 states adopted and
13 states improved RTC laws. RTC states have lower violent crime rates, on
average: 24% lower total violent crime, 22% lower murder, 37% lower
robbery, and 20% lower aggravated assault. The five states with the lowest
violent crime rates are RTC states. This comes from FBI data. In Florida
there have been 1.1 million concealed carry licenses issued, and 157 (0.01%)
revoked due to firearm crimes by licensees since 1987.
 
Where is the statistical evidence that proves that the states which have concealed carry (which is almost all of them) and/or that do not have strict gun control have less crime than states such as Chicago or CA?
Two words: John Lott
 
I'm actually not convinced there is a direct correlation between violent crime and concealed carry in either direction,

+1

Two words: John Lott

I suggest you read fro the following BEFORE quoting John Lott

http://www.thehighroad.org/showthread.php?t=188836&highlight=john+lott

http://www.thehighroad.org/showthread.php?t=188836&highlight=john+lott

Also check out (hold nose he is an anti but as far as I can tell honest )

http://timlambert.org/lott/

Also check out the CDC and NAS review of gun control studies

I think the best evidence shows that nothing significant happens to the crime rate when CCW is introduced. There have been numerous states that have gone to "shall issue" in the last 20 years. Do a newspaper search set for 1 year, 5 years and 10 years post shall issue. EVERY article I've read states that crime rate has not risen as the antis said they woudl and crime rate has not fallen as pro gunners said it would. All the articles I've read has said nothing changed in terms of crime rate. If someone else has articles that state otherwise please send them to me.

Bottom line do you really want your right to own and bear arms to be controlloed by statistics ?

NukemJim
 
If someone attempts to perpetuate a crime and you are able to defend yourself with a CCW, do these incidents still get included in crime statistics?

There was still a crime perpetuated, just unsuccessfully.

I would be more interested in the number attempted vs the number stopped by a CCW. The number of crimes attempted I would expect wouldn't be affected all that much by legal CCW, not unless it becomes very common. But I would expect the success rate of those crimes to be affected as the number of CCW rises. I would expect that the number of successful crimes would go down at about the same rate that CCW goes up.

ANyway to find those kinds of numbers?
 
Not only do the stats prove that crime is reduced as gun ownership and carry increases, but common sense should tell you it does. Just look at where all the worst violent crime is in this country. It's always worse where the gun laws are the most restrictive and least where the gun laws are most liberal (in the proper sense of that word, i.e., tending to enhance liberty). Compare DC to Virginia, for example. The more the culture discourages gun ownership and carry among non-criminals, the more violent crime you will find in that location. It is a pattern that screams out at you, and really doesn't require a study, anymore than you need a study to know that when it rains more people use umbrellas than when it doesn't. Some things are just plain to see, but if you need a study, there is a book called More Guns, Less Crime which is chock full of statistics confirming the obvious.
 
Edmond said:
Where is the statistical evidence that proves that the states which have concealed carry (which is almost all of them) and/or that do not have strict gun control have less crime than states such as Chicago or CA?
There is none.

There are two important facts to note, however. The first is that crime in all states seems to go up and down by similar percentages, indicating that socio-economic forces have far more to do with crime than anything else. Second, concealed carry has nothing to do with reducing crime. It has everything to do with defending your life at the moment when you are attacked by a violent offender. It’s reason for being does not have to be justified with statistics. It is justified by our right to life.
 
It’s reason for being does not have to be justified with statistics. It is justified by our right to life.
There is no need to deny the obvious in order to advocate the inalienable right of self defense. One does not threaten the other.
 
Remember, you do not need evidence that a lack of gun control has a net positive effect on crime statistics. To the extent that the statistics matter at all, you only need a lack of evidence for a net positive effect from strict gun control.

YOU are not proposing a new or radical idea, and YOU are not proposing to take anything away from any American. The other side is asserting that such is necessary, and it's their job to provide the evidence.
 
Remember, you do not need evidence that a lack of gun control has a net positive effect on crime statistics. To the extent that the statistics matter at all, you only need a lack of evidence for a net positive effect from strict gun control.
YOU are not proposing a new or radical idea, and YOU are not proposing to take anything away from any American. The other side is asserting that such is necessary, and it's their job to provide the evidence.
Underlining by NukemJim

We have a winner!



And for those who want to argue statistics.

the Task Force on Community Preventive Services (the Task Force), an independent nonfederal task force, conducted a systematic review of scientific evidence regarding the effectiveness of firearms laws in preventing violence, including violent crimes, suicide, and unintentional injury. The following laws were evaluated: bans on specified firearms or ammunition, restrictions on firearm acquisition, waiting periods for firearm acquisition, firearm registration and licensing of firearm owners, "shall issue" concealed weapon carry laws, child access prevention laws, zero tolerance laws for firearms in schools, and combinations of firearms laws. The Task Force found insufficient evidence to determine the effectiveness of any of the firearms laws or combinations of laws reviewed on violent outcomes

Taken from http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/rr5214a2.htm


There is no credible evidence that "right-to-carry" laws, which allow qualified adults to carry concealed handguns, either decrease or increase violent crime. To date, 34 states have enacted these laws

Taken from http://www4.nationalacademies.org/news.nsf/isbn/0309091241?OpenDocument

For those who like logic

he had "controlled" for population size in his analysis. But introducing a statistical control in the mathematical analysis did not make up for the fact that he simply had no data for the major cities where the homicide problem was most acute.

In 1991, David Freedman, a distinguished sociologist at the University of California at Berkeley and the author of textbooks on quantitative research methods, shook the foundations of regression modeling when he frankly stated "I do not think that regression can carry much of the burden in a causal argument. Nor do regression equations, by themselves, give much help in controlling for confounding variables"

Taken from http://www.crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/mythsofmurder.htm

There are two important facts to note, however. The first is that crime in all states seems to go up and down by similar percentages, indicating that socio-economic forces have far more to do with crime than anything else. Second, concealed carry has nothing to do with reducing crime. It has everything to do with defending your life at the moment when you are attacked by a violent offender. It’s reason for being does not have to be justified with statistics.

Taken from Graystar ( Thank you Graystar )

By the way when Lott first book was published I bought it immediatly. Thought it sounded good. Then started looking at it a bit closer and the more I looked the less I liked it. The math is WAY over my head (and dare I say it about 99.99% of the population ). My understanding is that it requires mainframe time not able to be done on a PC. When I started looking into Lott's response to his critics (expecting to be able to explain away charges) I found out that unfortunetly they had several major points. Then the "Mary Rosh" fiasco came up which to me just put frosting on the cake as far his reputation concerned.

NukemJim
 
Looked at this last night

If you go to Entrez Pub Med and look for abstracts of all articles in the medical literature in last 5 years, you will find an article on exactly that issue published in MMWR. You can read it on line for free.
Net-Net: no evidence that it helps (despite an obvious wish to find that gun control reduces violence). Poverty, drugs, etc. are much more involved.
BTW, last time someone published Brady grades here, I regressed gun crime on then grades and it showed a slight, non-significant trend toward lower crime in states with lower grades. But VT has very low crime, AZ has a lot.
Good luck.
 
YOU are not proposing a new or radical idea, and YOU are not proposing to take anything away from any American. The other side is asserting that such is necessary, and it's their job to provide the evidence.

Too few americans will remember the good old days for that tactic to work.

1) The antis will say they knew it wouldnt stop crime, because getting rid of crime was not the goal.
2) They will not say what the goal was.
3) They will claim that living as we do now with gangs and crime is better than living with "the alternative".

Look at how they respond to people like Mrs. Hupp after the lubys shooting with: "If you had a gun, it could have made the situation worse!"... in the same way they would probly say having a fire extinguisher is no use in saving your home from a fire.

I think its better to appeal with common sense than to try and compare before and after statistics.
Good evidence isint hard to find when you compare CCW passage with falling crime rates... but to make an undisputed link is nearly impossible when the anti's are willing to link it with global warming or some crap long before admitting that more guns actually meant for less crime.
 
you only need a lack of evidence for a net positive effect from strict gun control.

Don,

Thank you. After reading the posts, that's what I have realized. I don't have to prove that I'm innocent because I'm innocent until proven guilty. I was going about the whole matter the wrong way.

I feel like I'm back in a Social Psychology class. :D
 
Edmond, the statistical data-crunch done by Wright, Rossi & Daly for their 1985 "Under The Gun" (Univ. of Fla press) led to the conclusion that no gun control law ever passed by the Florida legislature had ever affected the rate of violent crimes where firearms were involved.

The Florida Department of Law Enforcement data showed a decline in some violent crimes after passage of their CHL laws. Mostly, crimes against strangers as opposed to family violence or inter/intra-gang drug murders. The uncertainty factor. Interviews with some violent criminals revealed that tourists had become a more favored target, as there was less uncertainty about the victims' vulnerability--particularly air travelers in rental cars.

Some 42 years ago, the police department of the City of Orlando offered handgun training lessons to women. One of the graduates had occasion to shoot a would-be rapist in a city park. Attempted rapes thereafter fell to zero for several months...

Art
 
As Art alluded to, the Florida data is the most relevant to any debate about crime and CCW. When an already low-crime place like Vermont or Alaska adopts liberal carry policies there is likely to be little effect on violent crime. The smaller the number of crimes, generally, the fewer crimes against strangers you're likely to see. Sadly, things like CCW do little to prevent truly domestic violence and similar offenses.

Pre-CCW Florida, on the other hand, was as crime-ridden as places come. It really was the perfect test case. All sorts of crimes of opportunity were being committed against strangers. I don't have the citations handy, but if I remember correctly there has been a drop in violent crime against strangers greater than the national average since the passage of shall-issue in FL. Hunt around on the web and you'll likely find something. Granted, one event happening after another doesn't prove causation (post hoc, anyone?)--but it at least begs the observer to investigate a potential connection.

In high-crime areas like Chicago, New York, and Baltimore the Florida data is potentially our best friend. I sympathize with the "RKBA is inalienable, 'nuff said" crowd, but the fact is that contemporary Americans (and especially urbanites) have been far too infected with utilitarianism to care. Appealing to the crowd requires pragmatic arguments.
 
Why do you need statictical proof of your,our, right to carry a firearm.

You, we, should not have to defend our postion when our rights are involved. What you are doing is placing us true Americans on the defensive. It should be the other way around. The anti-Americans should be placed on the defensive.
 
From our annual state police reports -

http://www.michigan.gov/msp/0,1607,7-123-1645_3501_4621---,00.html

Total Index Crime reported (murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, motor vehicle theft, and arson):

1997 419537
1998 456345
1999 407334
2000 401398
2001 405633
2002 388684
2003 380126
2004 356753

Michigan went shall issue halfway through 2001.
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It looks like the slope has steepened to me.
 

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Ryder said:
It looks like the slope has steepened to me.
This is a perfect example of why it’s so difficult to get meaningful knowledge from statistics.

First, the numbers include property crime. For 2003 there were 330,565 property crimes and 51,550 violent crimes. So the bulk of the values presented have nothing to do with crime that can be affected by CCW laws. This becomes most important when you compare the number with 2004. In 2004 there were 309,208 property crimes and 49,577 violent crimes. The property crime rate dropped 6.46% percent but the violent crime rate only dropped 3.8%.

Another problem is that the value doesn’t account for population changes. The correct numbers to use are the per 100,000 rates. Using those numbers actually improves the violent crime rate drop to 4.1%

Finally, you need to compare this to other states. According to the UCR the average drop in violent crime across the country is 2.2%. However, New York state, which has done nothing but add to its gun laws, enjoyed a 5.2% drop in violent crime. New York also had a lower per-100,000 rate than Michigan to start with.

So what does all that tell us? It tells us that the same numbers can tell us whatever story we want to hear. It all depends on how we choose to look at them.
 
where are the rivers of blood in the gutters after CCW?

In 1986, the US state Right To Carry (weapons for self-defense) laws
stood thusly:
1 Unrestricted, no permit or license required (VT)
8 Shall-issue, permits issued to applicants who qualify
24 Discretionary, permits issued at discretion of authorty
17 No Right to Carry, no permit or license granted.

In 2006, the US state Right To Carry (weapons for self-defense) laws
stand thusly:
2 Unrestricted, no permit or license required (VT & AK)
37 Shall-issue, permits issued to applicants who qualify
9 Discretionary, permits issued at discretion of authorty
2 No Right to Carry, no permit or license granted (WI & IL).

Of course, whenever one of those 29 new states passed a "shall
issue" carry permit law, Sarah Brady and Handgun Control Inc.
(aka Brady Campaign, Brady Center, Brady Center to Prevent
Handgun Violence, Center to Prevent Handgun Violence, etc.)
issued dire warnings that the gutters would flow with rivers of
blood as Wild West Shootouts broke out in the streets of [state
name goes here]. The predictions were trumpeted in the mainstream
media, but the fact they never come true was lost in the
publicity for the next gun control campaign.

THE ANTIS SHOULD HAVE THE BURDEN OF PROOF, just as the
assailant or home invader should have the "duty to retreat."

-------------------------------------------------------------

Getting information about Lott from Tim Lambert is about like
getting information about Charlton Heston from Sara Brady or
Michael Moore.

In the Yale Law School article:

http://islandia.law.yale.edu/donohue/Fordham Law Review (2004).pdf

we find footnote 6:
The details of the charges against Lott raised by Lindgren
and Duncan are recounted in exhaustive detail in a web page by
the highly talented Australian professor* Tim Lambert.
Tim Lambert, John Lott's Unethical Conduct, at
http://www.cse.unsw.edu.au/~lambert/guns/lott98update.html
(last modified Sept. 20, 2004). Lambert also notes that Lott has
repeatedly generated estimates based on data sets flawed by coding
errors and refused to acknowledge these problems when the errors
were brought to his attention.
* MY NOTE: Lambert is a lecturer at The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia,
who teaches Computer Graphics and Computational Geometry, and operates a weblog on John Lott.


But elsewhere in the WorldWideWeb we find:
Mr. Lindgren adds that he believes it extremely unlikely that any
coding errors were the result of a conscious intent to distort the
study's findings. Lindgren notes that Mr. Lott has not only shared
his data sets with other scholars, but has made them generally
available to the public on his Web site <http://www.johnlott.org/>.
"You tend not to do that if you've intentionally miscoded your
variables," Lindgren says.

While Lindgren found literally hundreds of misrepresentations of
fact in Michael Bellesiles' Armimg America, in John Lott's
More Guns, Less Crime Lindgren found one questioned statistic
(98 percent of DGU is brandishment only) and dubious evidence
about the survey that could have backed it.

And the weighting of the regressions with the Lott-Mustard data set
on CCW are so esoteric, different researchers can crunch the numbers
different ways and still get very minor differences. And those critics
have their critics.

And the gutters still did not flow with rivers of blood as predicted
by the antis.
 
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