Where's the powder?!

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coloradokevin

coloradokevin

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I'm generally patient with these panic buying cycles that seem to pop up from time-to-time, and I think we all realized this one was going to be a bad one.

But, seriously, it has been over a year now and the store shelves and major online retailers are still out of almost everything, especially powder. The guys at the local stores (even some of the BIG ones) are reporting very little powder supply coming in, and this doesn't give me much hope that the supply issue is going to be resolved anytime soon. Plus, no one is really accepting backorders for this stuff anymore.

Do any of you guys have any thoughts on when this might start to ease up (industry inside information, professional knowledge, etc)? At some point I'd think that the manufacturers would decide that the demand curve has just changed, and start to secure more production capability... after all, this stuff is still in very high demand a full year later, and no one can seem to find what they're looking for (unless you want to pay $50 for a $25 pound of powder, etc). It seems that in addition to the panic, there has also been a huge increase in individual gun ownership in the past few years (so, as more people are doing it, more supply will be required).

I had a good 1-year supply of components on hand for my precision rifle, but I'm about tapped out at this point. I shoot Varget powder in this rifle, and haven't seen any of it on the shelves since last December. A friend of mine who reloads for the .260 using H4350 is reporting similar problems.

So, where's the light at the end of this tunnel?
 
It's not going to be very soon, according to my supplier. He orders his primers directly from Federal, and had over 2,000,000 ordered for this year. Of that order, he received approximately (since I'm going from memory of what he told me) 400,000, and Federal cancelled the rest of his order, telling him they couldn't fill it, and had completely stopped taking orders for primers back around October.

As for powders, he currently has orders in for over 800 pounds of various powders. His suppliers are telling him they don't know when, or if, they'll be able to fill those orders.

When this all started last year, I predicted the shortages would last at least two years, but I may have been optimistic with that estimate. The CMP just sent out an e-mail newsletter and said it may be up to five years before they can fill some of the orders for ammunition they currently have now.

I think some things will show up in small amounts over time, but there just isn't the production capacity for powder to be able to supply the increased demand worldwide. Most of our powders now come from out of the U.S., with the exception of those made by the St. Marks Powder Company, in St. Marks, FL. If you look at the labels of your powders, you'll see they're made in Finland, Hungary, Russia, Australia, Canada, etc. No company with any business sense is going to make huge investments in production equipment and manpower if they don't believe they can make a profit on it in the long run, which simply means sustainable income on the investment. There is also the political climate to consider. Companies can't base their future investments on the U.S. Market, since politicians can change that market at any time, and do.

The bullet supply has started to ease, and they're becoming easier to find all the time, but without powder and primers, they're just sinkers (except in Calif., where they've outlawed lead sinkers).

Hope this helps.

Fred
 
My friends in other countries are saying that there isn't a shortage of components. It is the US marked that is upside down right now.
 
ole farmerbuck said:
colokevin, if you get to western Ks look me up. I bought a bunch of Varget 2 years ago and havent used any of it.
Click to expand...
If I'm out that way anytime soon I'll be getting ahold of you before I head out. I've been babying 2lbs of Varget all year. It doesn't meter all that great but it's sure easy to make good loads with.
 
A very good assessment by ReloaderFred. I remember about this time last year, guys on this forum were saying in 6 months the supply shortage would be over. I told them that this time was different from droughts in previous years. The first thing you have to realize is, these things are caused by fear. When you hear guys saying it is caused by hoarders, they are not looking deep enough. Think of it like someone telling you that your cough is caused by phlem in your lungs, while completely ignoring the fact that you have phlem in your lungs due to pneumonia. In previous droughts, the shortage was caused by fear simply generated by a person or party coming into power, with no direct threat being made by the person or party. This time you have a direct threat being made by the current administration that has been doing everything it can to pass legislation making it more difficult for shooters. While we may get a respite if things go well in the mid-term election of 2014 (as in the same party controlling the Senate as currently controls the House), but IMHO, I believe the supply situation will remain and is our new reality. I hope I am wrong.

Don
 
Of all the powders, I think Alliant is the hardest to find. RL15 anyway. Could just be around here but I havent seen any rl15 for quite some time. Good thing I have a good supply of 8208,335 and BLC-2.
 
Per our pm's, I loaded 3 different loads for my AR .204 with Varget. I havent used any before but I have plenty so I might as well try it.:) Thanks bds.
 
seems I am not alone in my curiosity of powder availability. Luckily I have 8# kegs of WST, 700x, AutoComp, and Hogdon Titegroup.

I load 9mm, and .45acp. I still have about 26# of the original 32#.

Doesnt stop me from looking for more, just in case.

be safe, and Merry Christmas!
 
Nobody knows when powder will be back, how long it will stay on the shelf or what varieties we will see. When this panic first started there was a substantial debate on forums whether to buy with the panic to wait it out so as to not contribute. Hopefully everyone now realized that it is better to have than not, panic or no.

Also now is a time to be flexible. IMR and Accurate 4064 is available right now.
 
I was going to start reloading over winter break last year. The start of break was 12/17..the day of the shooting.

I doubt I could have picked a worse time to get into reloading. After a year, I feel like I have been able to accumulate a pretty good supply of everything I need with two exceptions.

RL 15: Which I have never seen retail at any price
Berger VLD 87 grn bullets

I have established a set routine of five vendors, that I try to hit up four or five times each day. I remember the first time one of these searches turned up varget. I got the shakes, like first deer kind of deal.

I am VERY DISAPPOINTED my entire reloading experience has been in this environment, but after a year, I have all I need but the two listed items. The RL 15 isn't really needed, but it is a thorn in my ass. I have gone from 0 pounds of powder in December 2012, two approximately 34 pounds as of this morning..

Anyway, I won't be content until I can find some RL15, but suspect that will be awhile.
 
WSF?
Been looking for at least eight pounds. Looked everywhere I can think of and haven't seen a pound anywhere except GB, and that was going for gold bullion prices.
Anybody seen any?
 
Jcinnb said:
I was going to start reloading over winter break last year. The start of break was 12/17..the day of the shooting.

I doubt I could have picked a worse time to get into reloading. After a year, I feel like I have been able to accumulate a pretty good supply of everything I need with two exceptions.

RL 15: Which I have never seen retail at any price
Berger VLD 87 grn bullets

I have established a set routine of five vendors, that I try to hit up four or five times each day. I remember the first time one of these searches turned up varget. I got the shakes, like first deer kind of deal.

I am VERY DISAPPOINTED my entire reloading experience has been in this environment, but after a year, I have all I need but the two listed items. The RL 15 isn't really needed, but it is a thorn in my ass. I have gone from 0 pounds of powder in December 2012, two approximately 34 pounds as of this morning..

Anyway, I won't be content until I can find some RL15, but suspect that will be awhile.
Click to expand...
Yup, I even called Alliant. They gave me the name of vendors where I could get it. They acted like they had never heard of it. There is some on line for $49.99/lb but they can keep it. I found out yesterday that Varget works just fine.
 
when the market started to get REALLY tight, I was able to order some "substitutes" for powders I was currently using.. Green Dot instead of Unique, Herco instead of 800x.. H4227 in place of RL7.. and my VV powders were expensive enough to begin with they stayed in stock a little longer..

I paid too much for primers a couple of times.. and had to ration what I shot for about six months to let the guys at Missouri Bullet calm down and catch up..

There ain't NUTHIN' out there right now..
Lead shot is $54. a bag for #8 or #9.. good luck finding #4 or #6 that even COMES in a 25lb bag.. and it's $35 for a ten pounder..

someone, somewhere, does not want us shooting..
 
Luckily for me I shoot a lot of 38 Spl.
I say luckily because I can find Tite Group from time to time & that's my go-to powder for that caliber.

I can find all manner of primers & bullets are no prob seeing I cast my own, but any other powder is almost non-existent.

I don't buy enough other powders to absorb the hazmat fee, so it's local buying only.

Here's hoping 2014 sees a relaxing of the shortages.
 
just got back from LGS just checking on what they had..
most Alliant powders he had.. I left the last can of RL7 sitting on the shelf... grabbed a pound each of Blue Dot, 2400..
good selection of Hodgdon, although the only BLC-2 he had was an 8lb'er.. grabbed a pounder of H335.. They had at least two of each of the Hodgdon Clays series..
bought 1000 each Lg Pistol Mag and Small Pistol primers.. he had no rifle primers other than white box CCI..
IMR powders were pistol only.. although he did have a couple cans of Pb, and I hadn't seen any of that in a couple years..


brass selection was the most disappointing.. bags of 20 300RUM, .44-40 and 7mm Rem mag.. and not much else..
 
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I managed to get a couple of pounds of IMR 3031 a couple of months ago, but only after searching the internet for reloading supplies and making some long distance phone calls. Then I had to drive 150 miles (300 round trip) to pick it up! I still suspect that availability has been curtailed because of concern about the nuts out there that might use it for purpose other than what it's intended for, but maybe I'm wrong and it's just a supply and demand issue. I would also strongly advise against teaming up with someone you don't know to purchase propellant.
 
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