Why has everyone assumed China will become powerful?

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Fletchette

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As long as I can remember people have been declaring China as the next superpower, and would displace the United States. Here is an example:

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/article358568.ece

Why? Sure, they have more people than us, but so does India. Why have people assumed (and therefore perhaps made it happen by investing heavily into China) that they would be the next Superpower? More importantly, why have people assumed that the U.S. would decline? It seems to me that many of our 'leaders' have had a fatalistic outlook for the last several decades and simply resigned themselves to have the U.S. go down the toilet like previous world powers. Why?

It seems to me that a more optimistic foreign policy could have had a major impact. Why did Nixon try to open China? Why not just leave it closed so they could stay an agrarian giant with little abilty to threaten the U.S.? Why did Klinton push to get China into the WTO (okay, we know he did it for the kickbacks, but everyone went along with it)?

If we had played our cards differently I could see a bankrupt China, much like the Soviet Union, that kicked the Communists out of power. Now we have a well-funded and nationalistic Communist regime.
 
It seems to me that a more optimistic foreign policy could have had a major impact. Why did Nixon try to open China? Why not just leave it closed so they could stay an agrarian giant with little abilty to threaten the U.S.? Why did Klinton push to get China into the WTO (okay, we know he did it for the kickbacks, but everyone went along with it)?
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Flechette, I'm not being sarcastic here. I would say that in the misguided pursuit of profit, and the fact that hindsight is almost always 20/20.. we opened China looking for opportunities to make a fast dollar. Meddling by Britain, France, U.S.A., India and Japan have helped rip apart the normal development curve and bring about change a lot faster.

It will be interesting to see where exactly China is going to be getting fossil fuel in the future. As China cranks up industrial capacity (at this early a level, fossils fuels are crucial), it will need massive amounts of energy. With a looming crunch, the result will be spectacular. Will China develop an alernate source or will they go to war? China may have a unique advantage over us in this area. Their infrastructure is not so set that they cannot shift over to something other than fuel. Our economy and way of life are set already, if we were to run out of fuel most if not everything would come to a standstill. If China were to develop alternate energy means, they can tailor their society to fit.

Anyway, good questions.. but the answer is in the wind. Why did they do this? why did they do that? Only time will tell. I think the best we can do is prepare for the worst by teaching our children and learning as much as we can.. and always hope for the best.
 
The answer is, China has become powerfull! China controls the Panama Canal. The US no longer has first in line transiting priority, commercial or military. China has the worlds largest shipping container port located in the Bahamas, just a few miles off the US coast. They have also just completed a huge airfield there. China is, one of if not, the largest holders/buyers of US debt. China has immense influence in both Central and So. America. China has made, at least in part, virtually everthing you own. If that's not powerfull, what do you call it? :)
 
National power comes from economic power. The US is a superpower because of our economic might. Aircraft carriers, stealth bombers, spy satelites, and all that other good stuff is EXPENSIVE. Right now, we're the only nation that can afford these sorts of goodies. The really big knock-down-drag-out wars like WWI and WWII were more about production output than about military might. We won them because we were the most capitalist nation around and we had the most efficient economy (or do I repeat myself?).

Economic capacity is all important. That's why the European Union was created. That's why the Soviet Union failed. That's why Bush I, Clinton, and Bush II have all quietly, steadily moved towards the creation of a solid trading block between Mexico, Canada and the US.

Opening trade relations with China was not a mistake. Anything that allows our economy to expand into giant new markets is a good thing for our national strength. Most people don't seem to understand that. They think that corporate profits are somehow bad for the US as a nation. This 180 defrees from the truth. Profits (and the tax revenues they generate) are the KEY to a strong nation.

In the past, economies were primarily based on industrial production and labor. Resources, and the ability to utilize and distribute them efficiently, were the limiting factors. Our superior capitalist system made us the best in the world at doing that. Hence our rise to superpower status.

But the world is changing. Economies are moving towards a technical/informational/data/communications basis. That requires smart people, and as many of them as you can get.

China and India have vastly more people than we do, by a ratio of about 3 or 4 to 1. That means they each have 3 to 4 times more inately intelligent people to work with than we do. Once they figure out how to educate and apply their brainpower, they'll be able to compete successfully with the best the world has to offer (that means US!).

China stubbornly refuses to learn how to do this. India, on the other hand, is doing it right now. They know the score, and they're going to exploit their population advantage for everything it's worth.

We'll have to stay on our toes if we want to keep ahead of them.
 
The U.S. is twice the market that China is BUT China is buying 600 tons of GOLD every year. And our money policy and welfare baby boomer spending is a joke.
 
why have people assumed that the U.S. would decline?
Click to expand...

I believe history has shown us that all powerful nations and empires have declined. Many would argue that the US started its decline in the '60s and is proceeding apace.
 
In a nutshell?

China is rapidly embracing free-market capitalism.

America is gradually embracing centralized authority and a planned, socialist economy.
Click to expand...

Thats pretty much it. There is still hope, but not without change here. The chinese also have some major rough times ahead with social stability problems, but they are better equipped to deal with that than we are to deal with our problems.
 
who cares about china..

it's a great country that's become more of a capitalist society every day (also more democratic).. it's also too interdependent with europe and the U.S. with the foreign trade so it will never be involved in a war with the U.S.. democratic states that depend on each other for their economy will never go to war with each other.
 
Capitalists need new markets. Growth is the first and last commandment. If they can't find new markets, they create them. China and India are our creations. Whether they become Frankenstein monsters depends in part on us and our future policies.

China and India are growing rapidly off very smalll bases. Both nations have lots of assets but also lots of problems. China has a huge, restive peasant class they will have to do something about. They have turned themselves into a great factory for the West but so far the designs and the imagination are still coming from outside.

The U.S. is flailing about but still has more intrinsic adaptiveness and imagination than both. Don't count us out just yet.

Beware of extrapolating current trends.
 
some historians say

that China uses a people-based management philosophy that can grow a country strong or fail spectacularly depending on the top dog who is navigating the country at the moment.

What with engineers at the helm, how can china not be a growing threat? China will certainly out grow the States with lawyers at the helm.


oh yeah, that and the trend that the States is veering toward socialism.
 
You know, they censor the internet in China. At least, they try.

I wonder if Chinese people can come to THR? I seriously doubt it, subversives that we are.

Until that changes, we will always be stronger. That can't change without lots of other changes. China is in for some interesting times.
 
It's not a matter of China becoming powerful, China IS powerful. Oh, their military isn't as sophisticated as ours in some ways, but as the old saying goes, quantity has a quality all its own.

China's power lies in money, they have it in abunance, we don't. We have a lot of paper wealth in supposed appreciated values of real estate and stocks, they have warehouses full of $100 bills (metaphorically and in reality).

In the last two years I have notes of over $1 TRILLION dollars of Chinese investment, laying the groundwork for their future. They're buying rights to develop oil fields, iron ore, copper, minerals of every kind and energy resources of every kind. They're buying rights to the Canadian oil sands, they bought the biggest wind generator manufacturer in the United States. They invested over $200 Billion in Iran to get rights to Iranian oil, they're investing heavily in Venezuala to get access to their oil, and they have the spare money to spread around for social giveaways to win "hearts and minds". They're investing heavily in the trans-Caucasus republics across central Asia to get access to minerals and oil from that area. Their military is all over the world, especially Central and South America, training and equipping militaries in those regions.

You're not going to see much of this in the US media, you just get the party line, but if you use the wonder of the internet and read papers directly from around the world you'll see a bit different picture of world politics than the heavily skewed version we're fed. The Chinese have a long-term view. American policies tend to be driven by the next quarter's financial report or the next election cycle. The Chinese are looking 20-50 years down the road and setting themselves up to succeed.
 
In a nutshell?

China is rapidly embracing free-market capitalism.

America is gradually embracing centralized authority and a planned, socialist economy.
Click to expand...
Justin, you've nailed it.

I find that China is still free of a lot of the government and popularly-mandated fluff that, IMHO, pulls down the USA. There is no such thing as "PC" (politically correct) here. There are no labor unions. There is no "entitlement" mentality, surprising as it may be for a supposedly communist country. People here in the big city work their hinds off to make their own lives better and know that they can get fired if they mess up, and will accept it and look for work again instead of taking their former employers to court. Parents take all the responsibility for their kids and wouldn't dare trust somebody else (like a schoolteacher) to teach them morality. They can and do discipline their children without fear that some self-rightgeous meddler will call Child Services. Traditional family values still dominate here.

China's a good place for businesses to grow. Growing businesses means growing economic strength. Growing economic strength = greater international influence and power. China has the manpower, the resources, and the will to become the world's top economic superpower... but the questions are whether they can maintain control over their massive population long enough to do so.

I wonder if Chinese people can come to THR? I seriously doubt it, subversives that we are.
Click to expand...
Yep, they can. I do. The internet censors know that THR has a pretty much nonexistent effect on their country, so couldn't care less what anybody here says good or bad. Now when a massive infoengine like Google steps out of line... that's where the shutdowns start :eek: Case in point, Google Video is blocked here. I get a cute little message saying "Thanks for your interest in Google Video. Currently, the playback feature of Google Video isn't available in your country.":rolleyes:
 
If we had played our cards differently I could see a bankrupt China, much like the Soviet Union, that kicked the Communists out of power. Now we have a well-funded and nationalistic Communist regime.
Click to expand...

I have said it before and I'll say it again here.
China is the worlds largest capitalist nation, pretending not to be.

China is coming out of a very poor and oppressive time in her history. Capitalist blood is beginning to flow through the veins of the country and the people love it. Unlike the Soviet Union, Chinese leaders understand this and are letting it go because they profit from this as well.

I say good for them.
 
In a nutshell?

China is rapidly embracing free-market capitalism.

America is gradually embracing centralized authority and a planned, socialist economy.
Click to expand...

I'd call it fascist capitalism, not free market capitalism.

Is operating without any humane labor standards free-market capitalism?

Is stealing intellectual property free-market capitalism?

Maybe the "cure" is not more "free-market capitalism."

Maybe it's about time we stopped helping the oppressive giant get stronger? Maybe it's time our own rich stopped trying to get richer and thought of their own nation?

Maybe it's time to charge the Chinese through the nose for access to the world's great consumer market--until such time as we can wean the Great American Child, aka Consumer, from being a debt addict?

You cannot compete head to head with a nation that has radically different labor standards and values. You are foolish to try.

If we permit China to bring in $9,000 cars so we can put the final nails in the coffins of GM and Ford we will only have ourselves--or, rather, our politicians--to blame.
 
But the world is changing. Economies are moving towards a technical/informational/data/communications basis.
Click to expand...
Yeah, right ... :rolleyes:

Ultimately, if you don't grow it, dig it, cut it, or catch it then it doesn't matter.

Try eating a digital hamburger for lunch, or using a database to keep the rain off while you sleep :p
 
I have said it before and I'll say it again here.
China is the worlds largest capitalist nation, pretending not to be.

China is coming out of a very poor and oppressive time in her history. Capitalist blood is beginning to flow through the veins of the country and the people love it. Unlike the Soviet Union, Chinese leaders understand this and are letting it go because they profit from this as well.

I say good for them.
Click to expand...

Well, until recently we lacked the exploitable peasant class. Thanks to Clinton and the Bushes we're importing that as fast as we can.

"Free market capitalism" bougth at the price of suppression of political liberty--which is exactly what China has done--is nothing to cheer about. I'd say we're a lot closer to doing the same thing in America than some think.

I think it's disgusting that our techno-honchos--yes, that's you, Bill Gates, among others--have no trouble lending their expertise to quash dissent in China, all for the sake of expanding sales and earnings.
 
longeyes,
GM and Ford would benefit from bankruptcy. Such a thing would allow them to get rid of damaging union agreements as well as trim off uneeded fat (does GM really need both Chevy and GMC trucks?) and adopt better business practices.

I do see your point though.
 
Wasn't I supposed to be speaking Japanese by now? I could have sworn that in the 80s they were going to be the new masters of all they surveyed.

A large population is not an automatic boon. Wow, the Chinese might have more people, in raw terms, who'd make fine engineers, than itty bitty America, who only has 300 million souls but what about the dark side of that coin?. The problem for China and India is that they also have many hundreds of millions more in their respective underclasses, which are nothing more than economic millstones around their necks.

A country with a substantial minority or majority of citizens ill-equipped to cope with the modern global economy is in serious trouble if only the elites get richer, just ask the leaders of France what they think of their lazy, anti-globalist rabble.:) The strength of our system is that we will siphon off the best of anywhere if they want to partake in our risk/reward economy rather than be a cog in someone's national aspiration scheme, so we are unlikely to fall behind because we sort of cheat.:D
 
GM and Ford need major reform, no question about that. But I don't think the model can be China, that's all. Somewhere, between featherbedding labor unions and de facto slave labor, there must be a "happy compromise."

I still believe we have sapped the will and spirit of our nation by addicting our population to easy consumption--or, rather, what appears to be easy consumption only because we shut our eyes to the longer-term consequences economically, socially, and morally.

China is heading for major upheavals in the years ago. They will have to brutalize a lot of people to keep the great Chines "miracle" going. Let's hope we don't have a nation here that justifies our helping them do that by arguing that the American consumer must have $500 laptops and $8,000 pick-up trucks.

It does seem, in retrospect, that a lot of our own internal cultural problems began and co-developed with what appeared to be the "progressive" step of "opening up China" under Nixon. Certainly China became the great economic Oz that has bewitched every capitalist in our nation. Or maybe the Great Pusher? Perhaps we need to put all that into perspective in light of what else has happend to America in the last three decades.
 
Why has everyone assumed China will become powerful?



Maybe due to the Clinton Administration allowing rocket guidance technology that was formerly under the control of the State Department, to be controlled by the Commerce Department under Ron Brown.

Apparantly, if reports were true, since the Chinese Government paid monies to the Clinton campaign as donations through a church that was a Buddhist Temple, (remember no controlling legal authority?) for some reason, some of the guidance technology was transfered to China.

So if I recall correctly, a lot of folks think it was due to these Chinese Army Generals getting the capability of making their rockets fall precisely where they want them to, within the Continental United States.

It isn't the amount of people, but the ability to hit us with their rockets (which they could not do previous to the Clinton Administration's change in policy) that makes them pretty darn powerful.
 
pimp my nation

Hey, they paid good money--and to the right people--for that tech! Business is business, right? Ask the guy at Loral.

When everything is for sale, you don't have a country, just a FedEx address.
 
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