WI CCW - Tommy for Governor?

[AJ Dual]

What would an eleventh-hour Tommy Thompson Gubernatorial run do to our CCW effort?

Pro's:

• He's insanely popular in WI, Tommy has a TWENTY (20) point lead over Doyle, without any campaigning, and that's with him not even entering the race yet. That's just if his name were on the ballot in an imaginary election "tomorrow".
  
• He hates Doyle, just on personality conflict, and from back when Doyle was a constant thorn in his side as the Democrat Attorney General.
  
• He's a nominally conservative Republican, albeit a spendy and populist one.

Con's:

• I have the impression that privately, Thompson did not want to see CCW ever reach his desk. I don't know if that's because he was against CCW in principle, or if he felt it was simply a hot potato. However, the Democrat control of the Legislature made that somewhat moot.
  
• Thompson's extremely high level of popularity gave him some power over the Democrats, I don't recall him ever using it to push for pro-RKBA bills.

Would he hurt or help WI's CCW effort? I'd love to see such a slam-dunk of Doyle, OTOH, I fear that on RKBA/CCW issues he'd be wishy-washy, like Ohio's RINO Governor, Taft. Then again, the "CCW Revolution" was far from being so complete when Thompson was Governor, and perhaps he'd just "go with the flow" on CCW? Especialy after seeing how postitive/neutral CCW has been in every other state that's shall-issue?

Please discuss/speculate. Especially "those in the know".

 

[Monkeyleg]

From what I've been told by people who should know, there was always an understanding that the concealed carry bill was never to hit Thompson's desk. It was too controversial.

That's why the first chance we had for a floor vote was in 2002, after McCallum took over.

Thompson's no friend of ours.

 

[AJ Dual]

That's what I feared. I thought it was the case, but wasn't certain.

OTOH, being spineless on CCW is a far cry from being anti.

If it's a case of spinelessnes over CCW, the fact that only WI and IL have no carry, + the WI SC decisions urging permits would change that. Despite the rhetoric, CCW is no longer "controversial". He's got ample cover now...

Frankly, what I wanted so far has come to pass, Green for GOP nomination, Walker stays the Republican Milwaukee County Exec where we need him. (For THR's who don't under stand WI politics, this is a big deal.)

My biggest hope would be Tommy decides he likes Washington, and snipes Kohl's seat in the Seanate instead. At least it would be a plus for confirming any pro-RKBA judicial appointments Bush might throw in between now and '08…

However, the consensus is, if Tommy runs, he wins.

What do we do about it. FWIW, he can't be worse than Doyle...

He might like CCW now just to spite Doyle...

 

[Standing Wolf]

OTOH, being spineless on CCW is a far cry from being anti.

Yeah, like a $20 street hooker is a far cry from a $200 call girl. Sorry, but so-called "spinelessness" when it comes to the Second Amendmend is just a slightly more polite form of shameless anti-SecondAmendment bigotry.

 

[StopTheGrays]

The same poll had Green only a few points behind Doyle. That is bad news for Doyle, as the incumbent he should be scoring much higher in a head to head poll against Green.

 

[AJ Dual]

Yeah, a whore is a whore.

But I still stand behind my question. Was Tommy against it because of the "controversy", or because he didn't like CCW? Which is it?

Because if his opposition was merery over controversy, WI being the second-to-last state to conceivably get CCW (leaving the de-facto no-issue states out of the argument for now...), the controversy is pretty much past us, IMO.

Because when it comes to getting CCW in WI, I'm a $20 whore. I don't care if Tommy "likes CCW" and RKBA, I just care if he'll sign the damn PPA.

If Tommy enters the race, unless a dead hooker turns up in his hotel room (since we're on the subject...), he'll win, period. After a minor tiff within the state GOP because of the time invested, Mark Green would likely bail on the Governor's race, and start running to get his seat in Congress back.

If Tommy's the Governor, what does it mean for CCW? His lack of credibility in the past is established, I'm not debating that. What happens in the future? Does anyone care to speculate?

I'll go first. Because of the CCW landslide in the past decade, CCW in WI is no longer the hot-potato it used to be. I give a 75% chance Tommy will sign. Mark Green is 100% he'll sign, but he's got about a 50/50 chance (right now, which is phenominal, I agree, but not a sure thing...) of beating Doyle.

 

[Monkeyleg]

The Thompson/Doyle poll says something significant: voters dislike Doyle so much that they would overwhelmingly vote for a candidate who hasn't been on the WI stage for 5+ years.

Doyle obviously has statewide name recognition. Yet he trails a former governor, and is only running about head-to-head with Mark Green, who has almost no name recognition.

With the departure of Scott Walker from the race, Doyle is now facing a more formidable candidate than he expected.

I hate to keep repeating myself, but we have just three options:

Elect Mark Green, and keep the legislature in Republican control. We win.

Elect Doyle, and we lose.

Elect Mark Green but lose control of either the senate or assembly, and we lose.

 

[Monkeyleg]

AJ, everything we've witnessed the past four years has been pre-ordained.

The committee hearings, the floor votes, the veto override votes...they're all for theater.

The votes were cast and the deals struck before the floor votes even happened. (The only case where I think that didn't happen was with the heated argument between Senator Russ Decker and Senate minority leader Jon Erpenbach back in 2004; and I still have my doubts about whether or not that was just theater as well).

Steinbrink and Van Akkeren were given the go-ahead to vote for the bill in December. But at least one of them was told that they couldn't vote for a veto override. I'd bet my right testicle on that.

What did they get? Down in Steinbrink's district, take a look at the sale of the Dairyland Greyhound Racing track to the indian casino tribes. Also look at the land-grabs that were approved by Doyle and Steinbrink for Abbott Laboritories along I-94. Lots of local businesses got the heave-ho.

It's too late for Thompson to enter the race. He'd split the money and the votes, and Doyle would win. Walker was asked to leave, and he did so gracefully.

If Thompson was serious about running for governor, he would have started his campaign last year. IMO, he's just feeding his ego by floating his name.

IOW, just another RINO looking for an ego boost.