WI: we may win, we may lose. What will you do?

[Monkeyleg]

With the exception of a couple of polls conducted by stoned UW sophomore students, the race here for governor is a dead heat.

For the past week, I've been studying trends from past elections from polls conducted by Rasmussen, Zogby, and other reputable polling firms.

There's nothing in these past polls that offer an insight into what's going to happen next week.

More importantly, the people who regularly cover such campaigns--liberal or conservative--have no idea which way the votes will go.

One thing that partisans from both sides agree on is that turnout is the key. The party that gets the most voters to the polls wins.

By any measure, Jim Doyle should have been toast months ago. He's crossed the taxpayers by vetoing a freeze on property taxes; he's twice vetoed a bill that would require photo ID for voting (an idea that is supported by 85% of the people in my Democrat district); he opposed expanding indian gaming before he ran for governor in 2002, and then changed his mind when the indian tribes gave him nearly $1 million in that election; he's under federal investigation for campaign fraud; one of his staffers is already going to federal prison, and his campaign manager is in hiding, and rumored to be the next indicted by the federal prosecutor; he opposes school- choice vouchers, which give inner-city kids a chance to go to better schools (his veto is going to cost him big-time in the inner cities).

Does that sound like the winning resume' for an incumbent, much less an incumbent who has yet to break the 50% mark in polling?

The only reason that Doyle is holding the numbers that he has is because of the supposed "Democrat revolution" that's supposed to take place on November 7th. This new "revolution" is based on Democrats' opposition to Bush, their opposition to Iraq, their opposition to Bush's foreign policy in general, and their supposed momentum, as described by the MSM.

What does any of that have to do with Governor Jim Doyle?

Every mouthpiece for every candidate campaign, as well as the media pundits, are saying that voter turnout will be the key to the outcome.

That's the truth. And that begs the question: how much time will you give to the various campaigns in the next few days? What will you do?

How about just three hours this weekend? Can you fit it in?

There's a whole bunch of THR members who've been fighting for shall-issue CCW in Wisconsin for years.

Whether we all succeed or fail will probably not be known until early in the morning on November 8th.

Please, get out and help.

 

[Low-Sci]

Its a tough call, and I really don't trust the polls in the least.

Out of curiosity, I haven't heard squat from the NRA on the whole thing. Are they coming, or did they already hit so fast and hard with their endorsements that nobody saw it?

As far as what I'll be doing, our college group that's backing the republicans (as filthy as that can be) are just getting going in earnest. We'll be doing everything we can to pitch our candidates over the course of the next week; after that we've done everything we really can.

I think we have a more than fair shot at winning this. Its just too bad that Green has to have the abortion stance that he has, because that's not helping him at all.

 

[Monkeyleg]

Low-Sci: after the failure to override Doyle's veto of the concealed carry bill last February, Darren LaSorte of the NRA/ILA promised that he would make Wisconsin "ground zero" for the fall elections.

He's lived up to his word. The following print ad is running in targetted districts around the state: http://www.gunshopfinder.com/NRADoylead.pdf

The NRA is also running TV ads. Radio ads. They've been trying to recruit new election volunteer coordinators (EVC's).

I honestly do not know what more the NRA can do.

As for abortion? That's not within the NRA's charter.

But, as for Green's stance, I think it fits neatly within the mainstream of voters' stances. Granted, you're in a university setting, so you might have a different perspective.

The people in my age group--50 years old+---are far more likely to vote than those in college. With enough money, somebody could probably swing this election just by having a free beer day in Madison, LaCrosse, and other college towns that would keep the students drunk and away from the polls.

 

[Monkeyleg]

One more thing, Low-Sci: the reason you're probably not hearing the NRA's advertising is that you're in Madison.

Spending money in that ad market against Jim Doyle would be spitting in the wind.

 

[Low-Sci]

Me being in madison would explain quite a bit, you're right.

Its quite possible that it looks much bleaker from where I'm standing than the next guy because I'm damn near stewing myself in college and Madison politics, so I've seen exactly nothing from the NRA. But you're right, we're not the target audience there.

Hope the rest of the state is seeing more sunlight than I've been seeing here.

 

[scout26]

Dick, It could be worse. Here in Illinois Blago's major fundraiser turned himself into the fed's last week after being indicted for all kinds of financial highjinks, but Blago still leads in the polls by 15+ percentage points.

Judy Baar-Topinka can't get any traction because she's perceived (probably correctly) as just as corrupt as our current governor. The Green party candidate is polling 12-15% !!!

The voters in Illinois are digusted and the Liberitians have once again missed the opportunity to miss the opportunity by having a write-in candidate this year, when they could have made huge in-roads with the voters with a little marketing and advertising.

So we're going to end up with Blago for another 4 years (or until he's indicted by the feds and Pat Quinn takes over.) The Grassroots/Fitzgerald part of the Illinois GOP needs to takeover and clean house, if we ever want to have another GOP governor/Senator. The only way we can do that is NOT vote for JBT (gotta love those initials.) but also not vote for Blago. I'll be writing in Mark McCoy's name on my ballot.

 

[El Tejon]

Go get them, Wisconsin.

 

[peyton]

I think the biggest issue in this election is to get your friends and family to vote!! My family is split right down the middle and I am the referree. My thought is if you don't vote SHUT UP!!!!

Peyton

 

[Gene_WI]

I fear that the Democrats will cheat, and cheat badly. It will be a close election.

 

[progunner1957]

"Bannana Republic" election tactics have got to go

I fear that the Democrats will cheat, and cheat badly.

Since the 2000 Presidential election, "win any way you can" has become their mantra.

There needs to be prosecution and prison time for those found to be unlawfully influencing election results (i.e. CHEATING, STEALING VOTES, DEAD PEOPLE VOTING, MULTIPLE VOTING, THROWING OUT THE OPPONENT'S VOTES, TINKERING WITH VOTING MACHINES, MANIPULATING VOTE COUNTS, FALSIFYING VOTE COUNTS) or else elections will soon mean nothing as far as what We The People want.

If this feces is not brought to a halt, we will be no different than the third world Bannana Republics whose coke lords control election outcomes for their own purposes.

As I recall, that's not what America is about.

 

[ilbob]

I fear that the Democrats will cheat, and cheat badly.

Why would you think otherwise? They long ago abandoned even a pretense of winning elections in an ethical fashion.

 

[Gene_WI]

The city of madison has a media outlet called madison.com read it for an inside glimpse of the WI Democrat mindset.

 

[brufener]

Is there anything that non-Wisconsinites can do to help? I already donated to wisconsinconcealedcarry.org. Anything else?

 

[Monkeyleg]

brufener, you could contribute to Mark Green's campaign by going to this site.

Doyle's corrupt contributions have enabled him to buy a ton of advertising. Yesterday I received two very slick printed pieces from his campaign. I had the dog pee on them.

This is maddening. We're just a couple of percentage points from getting CCW for Wisconsin.

 

[Monkeyleg]

progunner1957, in the 2004 elections, we had a group of punks slash the tires of vehicles rented by the Republican party to help people get to the polls.

One of the punks was the son of the congresswoman from the north side of Milwaukee. IIRC, another was related to a Milwaukee alderman.

They were prosecuted and sentenced, although the sentences weren't nearly as severe as they should have been.

BTW, a little bit more hope: the Zogby polling organization now shows Green leading Doyle by 47% to 46%.

 

[SomeKid]

While probably not new, the only advice I can give is what I have learned.

Never trust polls. Even if they say you are winning 75-25, campaign like you are 5 points down.

 

[lamazza]

Its pretty obvious(to me) that the Dems are on a hardcore propaganda campaign about how they are going to sweep elections and take over..the world.
This appeals to the ignorant and uninformed voter.Everyone wants to be on winning team right?
Everyone that I know is voting for Green. Doyle's corruption isn't so transparent anymore.

 

[StopTheGrays]

Belling was hyping the poll numbers on his show today saying based on Zogby's polls Green should beat Doyle. He was hammering on Doyle again concerning his ethical lapses. Good stuff.

I have been telling everyone I know to either be sure to vote or if you are going to be gone to get an absentee ballot and vote now. Dems are going to gin up as many votes they can get and we need to make sure we get our people to the polls to counter that.

PS if anyone here is voting for Doyle, remember you cannot vote for him until Nov 8th.

 

[Monkeyleg]

I would urge every WI member of THR to look at the Journal Sentinel's editorial columns regarding the governor's race. They started running editorials yesterday in which they "endorse" Doyle or Green on a particular issue.

It shouldn't come as a surprise that they're giving Doyle the endorsement on every issue so far.

What should come as a surprise is that the Journal Sentinel has never before run daily editorial endorsements for one candidate over another. Not even in presidential campaigns.

This amounts to nothing more than a week of free advertising for Doyle. Buying an ad the size of one of these editorials in the Journal Sentinel's main section would cost at least $7,000 a day.

Our NRA/ILA lobbyist remarked a couple of years ago that, of all the states he's worked, he's never seen a media as biased as it is in Wisconsin.

 

[Desertdog]

One thing that partisans from both sides agree on is that turnout is the key. The party that gets the most voters to the polls wins.

Repeat! The party that gets the most voters to the polls wins.

Actually this is only true in a honest election, but that is the way it should be. That is what we are working to obtain.

IMHO there can be other factors than the offices to be filled that will get the vote out. If there are other items on the ballots that voters feel strongly about, they will come out to to help pass them, or to kill them. CCW seems to be a fairly mediocra item in most elections. But abortion, same sex marriage, legalizing drugs do seem to be hot button items, whether your for or against.

If the polls were always right, the Dems never would have lost power. Just ask yourself; Why do the MSM keep telling the poll results? Is it to dicourage the Republicans and encourage the Democrats? Probably, but it may backfire by the Democrats getting too confident ans staying home. I hope so'
Do you ever hear a poll where the Repubs are winning? Even the exit polls are wrong at times.

 

[FireBreather01]

Even the exit polls are wrong at times.

In 2004 the exit polls had Kerry inaugurated by noon. I do think that because the media are overpopulated by lefties that they tend to promote the polls that reflect their own positions and wishes. And, perhaps in a more conspiratorial tone, they do these things with an eye toward influencing the public. Their problem in the 21st century however is that their stranglehold on information has loosened dramatically with the internet, Fox, and conservative talk radio.

Repeat! The party that gets the most voters to the polls wins. Actually this is only true in a honest election, but that is the way it should be. That is what we are working to obtain.

And in WI I am convinced that in any state-wide race republicans must overcome a built-in 1% or 2% advantage that the dems have from illegal voting. I voted today using an absentee ballot - no one asked for any form of ID - I could have said I was any one of my former neighbors, friends, family that have moved or died, etc. All I had to do was fill out a form with my name and sign it - that's it. Hundreds and hundreds of absentee ballots and registrations have turned up with bogus addresses - almost all of them from deomocrat voter registration drives.

A state senator I know and respect once told me that if I thought voter fraud was bad in Milwaukee and Madison it was "nothing" compared to the rampant fraud on the reservations, where 'voters' want make sure that their hundreds of thousands of dollars spent in campaign donations to Doyle don't go to waste. When Doyle was AG he adamantly opposed Indian gaming/gambling. After he was gov for a year and he got donation after donation he suddenly did an about-face and became the state's biggest supporter of gambling.

I've donated as much as I can afford and worked some phone banks for Green - if Doyle still wins with all of his sleaze and his just outright backward vetoes I'm going to get real friendly with a bottle of gin!

 

[ArfinGreebly]

You will have noticed . . .

You will have noticed that as we've gotten closer to the actual election the polls have "magically" swung to the right.

Yeah. Of course. Suddenly whole droves of voters change their minds with a suddenness that makes a right-angled bend look positively shallow.

No.

Actually, what you're seeing is pollsters whose motivation is the fostering of apathy and defeatism of folks on the right so that fewer of them will show up at the polls, figuring that it's no use. They're actually trying to influence the outcome -- shooting for self-fulfilling prophesy scenarios.

However, pollsters have to eat, and their credibility is what they use to buy food. As the actual event draws near, they MUST get closer to the actual outcome if they are to continue eating. So, on the longer run-up, you see their "wish" polls; as it nears Fat Lady time, their bread and butter requires something closer to realism.

 

[Desertdog]

I voted today using an absentee ballot - no one asked for any form of ID - I could have said I was any one of my former neighbors, friends, family that have moved or died, etc.

This explains why there is a push for positive ID for registration and voting.

All I had to do was fill out a form with my name and sign it - that's it. Hundreds and hundreds of absentee ballots and registrations have turned up with bogus addresses - almost all of them from deomocrat voter registration drives.

There is a certain amount of builtin safe guard here in the simple fact that the absentee ballot has to be mailed to a legitimate address. The bogus addresses are returned to sender by the USPS and cannot be used.

I wish that the govs would keep track of and cross reference the addresses, and send an inspector out to see if an address with multiple registrants is actually an apartment building or other multipul address location.