What is the chance of the Hearing Protection Act becoming law?

I hope it passes, but it's politics as a whole that will decide if it does or not. I'm personally not optimistic. Sure, the Republicans have majorities in both houses, and Trump is pro-2A, but if the Democrats put up enough of a fight it may not be worth the effort to make sure it passes. Face it, Congress has a lot bigger fish to fry this term, and if the R's need to sacrifice something to gain more support on other issues (Affordable Care Act, anyone?), they'll drop it like a hot rock. Regretfully, of course. That way the D's get to save face with a "victory" on a minor issue (no flames, please!) right out of the gate, before they cave on other things.

In other words, who the hell knows? It'll be interesting to watch, though. And I think we'll be a lot more productive if we keep concentrating on gun issues at the state level, anyhow.

I give it a 60% chance of passing, with a 50% chance that it will morph into something less than desired.

Best chance is if it is attached as a rider to the Obamacare repeal bill.

I think it's got the best chance it's going to get in the foreseeable future so everyone should be contacting their representatives right now.

TFB is not a credible source of, well..................anything.

Call me an optimist, but I think there is a very good chance that it is going to pass, if narrowly. It gets to be a little more realistic when proposed as "Hearing Protection".

It can pass the House, provided a Committee Chair or member of leadership get's on board as a leader to drive it. Neither Duncan nor Carter on their own have the juice. Not sure whether Carter is tight with Chairman Brady? That would help. The smartest vehicle for this would be as a rider in comprehensive tax reform.

In the Senate, it faces a seriously uphill battle. I don't see it, but maybe in the context of comprehensive tax reform it could slide by. No way it makes it as a stand alone in regular order or attached to anything that isn't must pass. My opinion.

I think it will be passed with an amendment for universal background checks and a de facto ban on private sales

I hope not though, suppressor sound nice to have. I am one the guys that would never pay a $200 tax for one, but think they are neat and would consider buying one if it wasn't part of nfa.

I think it will pass in the House without any problem. I’m not very confident about the Senate. Then there’s Trump and that little thing about “Every things negotiable” idea of his.

I think the best approach to attach it to a budget bill to remove the $200 tax and therefore the registration requirement.

I say 0%. These are still politicians, and they don't all like or agree with Trump. They will not start magically getting along and working for a common cause on 1/20/17. They will find a way to waste the opportunity that has been given to them, I am confident in that.

Trump is pro gun has been said. I hope so. Passing the bill would have a better chance if the Federal Treasury wasnt going to lose the money, 200 bucks each and months behind cashing checks daily. He is also a buisnessman and his mindset isnt to lose money. I think good will come from discussion of the subject of the saftey aspect of the idea a win pass or not.

Being a businessman, he's also not blind to the revenue that "tax" brings in. But maybe he'll recognize that if they dropped it from $200 to $50, more people would pay it. I know I would. Granted no tax would be ideal. But I'll take $50 and smile as I file my form.

It's smart(er) business to sell many widgets at a small profit than one widget at a large profit. People are more apt to buy sale items. And that would be like a government 75% off sale on suppressors.

I wonder what a 405gr 45-70 sounds like suppressed.

Decoy80 said:

Trump is pro gun has been said. I hope so. Passing the bill would have a better chance if the Federal Treasury wasnt going to lose the money, 200 bucks each and months behind cashing checks daily. He is also a buisnessman and his mindset isnt to lose money. I think good will come from discussion of the subject of the saftey aspect of the idea a win pass or not.

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Trump won't veto it. The issue is really the Senate and getting to 60 for cloture. Thus the need for it as a rider on a must pass. As to revenues, I bet eliminating the $200 tax doesn't even score with the Congressional Budget Office. Anything under 1 million registrations per year and it's a rounding error on the Hill...

RPRNY said:

Trump won't veto it. The issue is really the Senate and getting to 60 for cloture. Thus the need for it as a rider on a must pass. As to revenues, I bet eliminating the $200 tax doesn't even score with the Congressional Budget Office. Anything under 1 million registrations per year and it's a rounding error on the Hill...

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I would like to see it pass for sure. It would be a win in two ways maybe more. Common sense shown by our leaders actions would be a boost in the confidence the common people have in them. Also it would remove the NFA status from a device feared by Game Wardens during the great depression that does more good than harm. I have confidence that even bringing it up for debate will raise awareness to our public servants that the good outweighs the bad in this one instance. They are duty bound to their constituents to act in that interest.

RPRNY,
I'm sure you're right about the budget. But a few "pro gun" bills getting passed and they will get something more valuable than revenue.... Votes. Around 80 million of them. And also, how many people would go out and buy a gun just so they could get a suppressor? They get the revenue from that gun sales also. It would add up.

What do you think the chance of the HPA becoming law is?

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Better if everyone gets in contact with their respective senators and representatives from each state. I contacted mine last week.

Everyone I talk to seems to be very hopeful. As for me, not so much. I don't have any solid reasoning for feeling this way. It's more the fact that I am not used to any pro gun legislation passing, so this is a very alien feeling. As a long-time NFA collector I hope it passes. I want everyone to be able to enjoy the same toys that I enjoy.

BigBore44 said:

RPRNY,
I'm sure you're right about the budget. But a few "pro gun" bills getting passed and they will get something more valuable than revenue.... Votes. Around 80 million of them. And also, how many people would go out and buy a gun just so they could get a suppressor? They get the revenue from that gun sales also. It would add up.

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I take it you've never spent any time in Congress?

You have just demonstrated more common sense than the entire body and, in doing so using less than 35,000 words, have violated the "Bamboozle Principle" which requires that anything to be said be must be said using, at a minimum, twenty times more words than needed, preferably ambiguous or confounding in nature.

Because the elimination of the $200 tax would have "budget impact", I am fairly sure it will have to be scored - ie CBO will have to model the budget impact of doing away with the tax. CBO does not do dynamic scoring, so they would not counter the loss in revenue from the NFA provision with an estimate on increased Pittman-Robertson excise taxes from any projected gun sales, but, presumably suppressors would be subject to Pittman-Robertson, so the losses associated with revision of the tax code on suppressors would be offset, unless suppressors are already subject to Pittman Robertson as well. In any event, this will not be decided on a revenue basis. GOP legislators will largely support, though there will be a few waffles in the Senate, and Senate Dems will largely oppose.

Since the House definitely intends to pursue comprehensive tax reform, probably in 2017, that's where this will likely end up. As a provision or rider on a tax bill, it could pass the Senate. I just can't see this making it as a stand alone in regular order. But, happily, I am often wrong.

Ain't never gonna happen

Aim1 said:

What is the chance of the Hearing Protection Act becoming law?

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Ahhhhh, Speculation ... one of the forums' Major Food Groups.

I have a friend who can't wait for this to pass. His argument is if it passes it would help reduce the noise damage his ears endure while he is shooting. Same guy rides a Harley with straight pipes in a group of other riders with straight pipes. Things that make you go hmmm.

Does it need 60 votes? It is a tax issue after all.

BobTheTomato said:

Does it need 60 votes? It is a tax issue after all.

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It could theoretically go through under budget reconciliation. Any NFA reform could. The problem is getting it out of committee, etc. Don't assume that all Republicans would automatically be for it. I suspect that most just hope that the whole issue goes away.

For this to have any chance at all, there would have to be some legislative maneuvering, such as attaching it to a "must-pass" bill. Who is ramrodding those kinds of efforts?