brasscollector
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Re-figure that number with 50 rounds/box and it's more like 800,000,000 rounds.
LGS Price Difference
- Thread starter Axis II
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edwardware
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You missed a full half of the price setting equation. . . consumers.
Prices won't persist a single penny higher than the demand will support.
George P
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I meant to say 16 million boxes - good catch! And since the entire industry made ~ 5 billion rounds last YEAR, 800,000,000 isn't getting made overnight.Re-figure that number with 50 rounds/box and it's more like 800,000,000 rounds.
Prices here havent changed much, availability is limited.
Zero small anything primers (friend just snagged a couple K)
9s gone
556/223 rare
Shotguns always like 12-15 bucks a box, so same.....
Uhhh.....powders srill 30-40
Large primers are 35-45/1k
When current supply is depleted i expect forced rationing, and increased cost. One store only allows one box of each cartridge a day now.
Zero small anything primers (friend just snagged a couple K)
9s gone
556/223 rare
Shotguns always like 12-15 bucks a box, so same.....
Uhhh.....powders srill 30-40
Large primers are 35-45/1k
When current supply is depleted i expect forced rationing, and increased cost. One store only allows one box of each cartridge a day now.
CapnMac
Member
None of this is much helped by the persistent belief that retail stores are paying a penny for things they are selling for a dollar, and have zero sunk overhead costs in that dollar.
The possibility that the "penny" item is actually 80¢ before the shop owner put the 15¢ on to keep the lights on and employees paid, is also glanced over as if of no import.
Further, that it's harder to sell things in a bare shelves shop, that it costs money to make a store look prosperous to browse within. And, that this rule of marketing holds fast if a person owns one, a hundred, or even a thousand stores.
Now, if we want to look at why LGS A has a different price than LGS B, that's subject to a number of variables. Like the rent paid for the location; what the utilities bills are like; or even what the cost of good labor is.
This is a long chain of events from factory to retail shelf. Factory sells for a penny, wholesaler sells for 30¢, distributor for 60¢, all for the retailer to buy before it can go on their shelf. And, that's in normal availability.
Just business econ 101. Yet, every increase gets our community all hurr-hurr gouging! hurr-hurr--and pointlessly, too.
In 2015 an S&W M&P carbine would sell like hotcakes at $900; by 2018, $400 was the going rate. Now we are back to $900? Does no one remember the two-grand ARs of years past?
The possibility that the "penny" item is actually 80¢ before the shop owner put the 15¢ on to keep the lights on and employees paid, is also glanced over as if of no import.
Further, that it's harder to sell things in a bare shelves shop, that it costs money to make a store look prosperous to browse within. And, that this rule of marketing holds fast if a person owns one, a hundred, or even a thousand stores.
Now, if we want to look at why LGS A has a different price than LGS B, that's subject to a number of variables. Like the rent paid for the location; what the utilities bills are like; or even what the cost of good labor is.
This is a long chain of events from factory to retail shelf. Factory sells for a penny, wholesaler sells for 30¢, distributor for 60¢, all for the retailer to buy before it can go on their shelf. And, that's in normal availability.
Just business econ 101. Yet, every increase gets our community all hurr-hurr gouging! hurr-hurr--and pointlessly, too.
In 2015 an S&W M&P carbine would sell like hotcakes at $900; by 2018, $400 was the going rate. Now we are back to $900? Does no one remember the two-grand ARs of years past?
bikerdoc
Moderator In Memoriam
Capnmac brought it back between the rails. Keep it there!
Oldschool shooter
Member
I've heard from several LGS that ammo.will be tough to get thru mid 2022. These guys are small shops that have to pay a higher price for ammo than the big box stores buying by the truck load. One place is selling 9mm defense loads at $59 per box. He showed me his shipping receipt, his cost was $55 per box. Not saying some aren't gouging, but I will continue to support my LGS.
I've tried to explain this before and now I'll try to explain it again. I worked in retail for more than fifty years and the wholesale and retail costs of firearms and firearms related merchandise is unlike that of almost all other merchandise. First, I admit that I've been out of the business for many years now and things have certainly changed to some degree during that time. For example, there are far fewer jobber and distributors, which means less competition than ever. The use of computer based distribution programs is now much more widespread that it was when I was involved. However, in talking with folks who are still in the business, the general practice remains pretty much the same.
Let's start with manufacturers. The "big" manufacturers such as Browning generally don't like to deal with the small local gun shop. Most of the time the "big" manufacturers put all sorts of road blocks in the path of the LGS such as requiring proof of a store front, requiring proof of x dollars in sales, or even proof of a huge line of credit. Then there was the price structure of the "big" guys. If you bought x dollars of merchandise, then the price was y, and the more you bought the lower the price per item went.... most of the time. But then with Browning, for example, if you wanted the best possible price on firearms, you had to buy a specified amount of clothing and/or accessories. Then there was the payment structure. If you paid the balance in x days, the price was y; the longer you took to pay, the higher the price went regardless of the price you had agree upon before this all started. Some called it a "price adjustment" and others called it a "finance charge." With the "big" manufacturers, the general rule was and remains: the bigger your business, the better we will treat you. One result is the big box sporting goods stores in many cases will pay only 60% of the cost that the LGS is forced to pay from the "big" manufacturers, if they are willing to sell direct to the LGS. Another issue with manufacturers that folks don't really understand is that the production numbers are generally pretty low. Even the "big" guys do not have the capacity to produce unlimited numbers of products. For example, when I toured one major manufacturer in the late 1990s, I was surprised to learn it could only produce two different revolvers and two different semi-autos at a time. Those numbers are further limited by production schedules. The "big" manufacturers decide months, sometimes years in advance when they are going to make a product and how many units are going to be made. As a result, not only are numbers limited, generally there are not warehouses or storerooms filled with products simply waiting to be sold. In many cases, the "big" guys will have sold an entire production run of a product to one of the big box stores even before it is produced!
Now let's turn to wholesalers. The same rule applies here: the bigger you are, the better they treat you. But that rule takes many forms. For example, an LGS that does $250,000 a year with a wholesaler will be charged more for an item that a LGS who does $500,000 in business a year with the wholesaler. In my experience that difference may be as little as 2% or as much as 55%, but it's always a significant difference. In addition, the smaller LGS may not even learn of items that the wholesaler has received. Yes, there are computer inventory systems, but the telephone is still important for the sale of limited commodity items. Let's say a wholesaler receives a shipment of desirable items from a manufacturer. The sales people for that distributor know which of their clients really want those items and can afford them; so they call up the LGS and the conversation goes something like this. "We just got in x number of that thing you mentioned that you really wanted. I can let you have y number of those items, if you're willing to take x number of these other items (that nobody really wants) along with it." Now that sales person is usually on some sort of commission or bonus program, so he/she calls the LGS with the deepest pockets first. It is also common for that number of desirable items to be distributed among the salespeople who are often geographically based. So your LGS can be too small to be on the "preferred customer" list or be located in an area of the country where the saleperson for that region was sick that day and all of the items go somewhere else. Another issue with distributors today, is that they often promise items to their LGS customers that they haven't even received as an enticement to get them to buy other stuff. Now its "Have I got a great deal for you. I'll let you have x number of these things when they come in, if you take x amount of this other stuff now." Of course you ask, "what's going to be my price on these desirable things?" and the person responds "Oh, somewhere around $xxx." You think that's great but then the problems really start. First, the items may not show up for days, weeks or even months. Second, the wholesaler may bill your account for the merchandise even though you don't have it and it hasn't even been shipped. And third, when it finally arrives, it turns out to be much more than the price you were quoted, but you go ahead and take it because you know your customers want to see these on your shelves and you don't want to be cut off from these "great deals" in the future.
The point of all this is that there is generally no one fixed price for anything for the LGS. Two LGSs withing a few miles of each other can be charged dramatically different prices -- even different from the prices they had agreed to -- for the same items. Once upon a time, I was standing behind the counter in the "hunting department' I was running when the bright folks from corporate introduced the brilliant, MBA, child wonder they'd hired to oversee the "hunting" program (even then they thought it was politcally unwise to call it a "gun program" or a "firearms program." This person proudly announced that "selling this stuff is just like selling washers and dryers -- you order it, it shows up and people buy it!" That company went bankrupt within 2 years. The "firearms business" is just not as simple as most folks seem to believe. One of my comrades who owned a Christmas tree farm said it was sort of like selling Christmas trees. You just never knew what was going to happen to your product or how much to charge until the last moment!
Let's start with manufacturers. The "big" manufacturers such as Browning generally don't like to deal with the small local gun shop. Most of the time the "big" manufacturers put all sorts of road blocks in the path of the LGS such as requiring proof of a store front, requiring proof of x dollars in sales, or even proof of a huge line of credit. Then there was the price structure of the "big" guys. If you bought x dollars of merchandise, then the price was y, and the more you bought the lower the price per item went.... most of the time. But then with Browning, for example, if you wanted the best possible price on firearms, you had to buy a specified amount of clothing and/or accessories. Then there was the payment structure. If you paid the balance in x days, the price was y; the longer you took to pay, the higher the price went regardless of the price you had agree upon before this all started. Some called it a "price adjustment" and others called it a "finance charge." With the "big" manufacturers, the general rule was and remains: the bigger your business, the better we will treat you. One result is the big box sporting goods stores in many cases will pay only 60% of the cost that the LGS is forced to pay from the "big" manufacturers, if they are willing to sell direct to the LGS. Another issue with manufacturers that folks don't really understand is that the production numbers are generally pretty low. Even the "big" guys do not have the capacity to produce unlimited numbers of products. For example, when I toured one major manufacturer in the late 1990s, I was surprised to learn it could only produce two different revolvers and two different semi-autos at a time. Those numbers are further limited by production schedules. The "big" manufacturers decide months, sometimes years in advance when they are going to make a product and how many units are going to be made. As a result, not only are numbers limited, generally there are not warehouses or storerooms filled with products simply waiting to be sold. In many cases, the "big" guys will have sold an entire production run of a product to one of the big box stores even before it is produced!
Now let's turn to wholesalers. The same rule applies here: the bigger you are, the better they treat you. But that rule takes many forms. For example, an LGS that does $250,000 a year with a wholesaler will be charged more for an item that a LGS who does $500,000 in business a year with the wholesaler. In my experience that difference may be as little as 2% or as much as 55%, but it's always a significant difference. In addition, the smaller LGS may not even learn of items that the wholesaler has received. Yes, there are computer inventory systems, but the telephone is still important for the sale of limited commodity items. Let's say a wholesaler receives a shipment of desirable items from a manufacturer. The sales people for that distributor know which of their clients really want those items and can afford them; so they call up the LGS and the conversation goes something like this. "We just got in x number of that thing you mentioned that you really wanted. I can let you have y number of those items, if you're willing to take x number of these other items (that nobody really wants) along with it." Now that sales person is usually on some sort of commission or bonus program, so he/she calls the LGS with the deepest pockets first. It is also common for that number of desirable items to be distributed among the salespeople who are often geographically based. So your LGS can be too small to be on the "preferred customer" list or be located in an area of the country where the saleperson for that region was sick that day and all of the items go somewhere else. Another issue with distributors today, is that they often promise items to their LGS customers that they haven't even received as an enticement to get them to buy other stuff. Now its "Have I got a great deal for you. I'll let you have x number of these things when they come in, if you take x amount of this other stuff now." Of course you ask, "what's going to be my price on these desirable things?" and the person responds "Oh, somewhere around $xxx." You think that's great but then the problems really start. First, the items may not show up for days, weeks or even months. Second, the wholesaler may bill your account for the merchandise even though you don't have it and it hasn't even been shipped. And third, when it finally arrives, it turns out to be much more than the price you were quoted, but you go ahead and take it because you know your customers want to see these on your shelves and you don't want to be cut off from these "great deals" in the future.
The point of all this is that there is generally no one fixed price for anything for the LGS. Two LGSs withing a few miles of each other can be charged dramatically different prices -- even different from the prices they had agreed to -- for the same items. Once upon a time, I was standing behind the counter in the "hunting department' I was running when the bright folks from corporate introduced the brilliant, MBA, child wonder they'd hired to oversee the "hunting" program (even then they thought it was politcally unwise to call it a "gun program" or a "firearms program." This person proudly announced that "selling this stuff is just like selling washers and dryers -- you order it, it shows up and people buy it!" That company went bankrupt within 2 years. The "firearms business" is just not as simple as most folks seem to believe. One of my comrades who owned a Christmas tree farm said it was sort of like selling Christmas trees. You just never knew what was going to happen to your product or how much to charge until the last moment!
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P5 Guy
Member
Throughout any & all panics, banics, school shootings, terrorist attacks and other similar etc., this has stood true; SUPPORT YOUR LOCAL SHOP.
The post I reference above ^^ is just one of the more CHILLING reasons, but still an ATTACK on our ability to partake, AS WE SO SEE FIT, or just as plainly, AT OUR INDIVIDUAL WHIM/ DESIRE, our version of 2A participation.
Support any & all sources of ammo and other 2A items.
Those are unrealistically pessimistic. Buyer fatigue will set in and demand will fall off or manufacturers will add production capacity to meet demand if demand was really expected to increase over that span. Right now the investment to add production is only being made in any significant way by the small AZ manufacturer Ammo International.
FFGColorado
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- Mar 2, 2020
- Messages
- 1,129
NOTHING about 2020 was 'normal'. Don't make decisions in 2021/2022-etc, based on 2020. BUT, it's driven by 'you know what'
..When that subsides, and it will, 'things' will return to something approaching 'normal'..whatever that is. BUT there hasn't been a worldwide disruption like this since before and during WWIIIMHO and all that.
P5 Guy
Member
Pessimism on this issue is well founded. The panic will end for some models when they become banned by those with the power to do so.
I have faith that they will never stop pushing for disarming the general populace. And panics will become more severe and longer lasting.
Only to end in bans.
Ammo is what I'm referring to, not guns.
Guns are far less predictable, being driven by one crisis or another.
P5 Guy
Member
Apply my words to ammunition too. Ammunition is easier to be regulated. Remember the ban on Norinco 7.62x39? The panic over Black Talon? The died before being made Black Rino? Only a couple of generations ago folks had to show ID and sigh a ledger to buy ammunition. California restricts who and where citizens can buy ammunition from.
For as long as the federal government is controlled by anti-gun (and I've said all politicians are anti-gun to some extent) politicians the panic will run, and citizens will pay thru the nose.
Yes, but why do 2 other shops have ammo for normal price-$3-5 more and these guys are charging 3x more? The 3x more place had a line out the door for guns and ammo Saturday.
Yes, some types of imported ammunition has been banned and could be a factor, but US manufacturing capacity is where we're choking with demand. And US ammunition manufacturing is bottlenecked by primer production. I'm unaware of any attempt to increase primer manufacturing (please let us know if anyone is aware of increased primer production being invested in).
WRT Black Talon, all Winchester did was rename it Ranger SXT (jokingly referred to as Same eXact Thing).
I see the ammo shortage and pricing as a straight forward supply/demand issue due to a temporary bubble. As soon as public perception of crisis settles a bit or buyer fatigue occurs prices will drop with dropping demand.
I understand that I'm in the "We've seen ammunition buying bubbles before and past performance predicts future behavior so this too will pass." camp while others are "This will only get worse" camp. If you don't want to believe one or the other I'm not going to persuade you since it is predicting the future and people believe what they want.
WRT Black Talon, all Winchester did was rename it Ranger SXT (jokingly referred to as Same eXact Thing).
I see the ammo shortage and pricing as a straight forward supply/demand issue due to a temporary bubble. As soon as public perception of crisis settles a bit or buyer fatigue occurs prices will drop with dropping demand.
I understand that I'm in the "We've seen ammunition buying bubbles before and past performance predicts future behavior so this too will pass." camp while others are "This will only get worse" camp. If you don't want to believe one or the other I'm not going to persuade you since it is predicting the future and people believe what they want.
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The longer it drags the more likely that imported products will be hitting the market and producers will implement incremental supply increases. Eventually the demand will be met and prices will fall back to some semblance of normal. When this happens is dependent on a number of factors. I wouldn't be surprised to see prices start dropping this fall and winter and return to normal next summer, however a big push for gun control could drive prices even higher and keep the panic buying going for quite awhile. Anyone who "knows" when ends is just guessing.
At this point in time shops are getting ammo from any source they can. They are paying higher prices so they can have stuff on their shelves. $18 for a box of primers is kind of ridiculous, but the other option is no primers at all. If every store started selling items at the market rate the shelves would fill up and the panic buying would die down in short order.
At this point in time shops are getting ammo from any source they can. They are paying higher prices so they can have stuff on their shelves. $18 for a box of primers is kind of ridiculous, but the other option is no primers at all. If every store started selling items at the market rate the shelves would fill up and the panic buying would die down in short order.
I usually hear them apologizing for the pricing.
George P
member
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Most of our imports come from countries heavily restricted with Coivd issues which is why there haven't been much on the shelves from them.
jag1954
Member
I'm fortunate that here in central Ohio I have a few LGS within a 50 mile radius and the Rural King outlet is 5 minutes away. I'll continue to support them, but I too have seen in the short time that I've begun purchasing again some pretty wild swings in prices. I don't complain, I know it's crazy times, but right now it's the price I pay. I've been able to accumulate a fair (some at reasonable pre-panic prices) amount of ammo for all (6, there's gonna be more....) of my guns that should last me for a bit. Retirement allows me the time to hop in the car and cruise around, browsing, price comparing and such and I always seem to come home with something. Sure I could sit at my pc and surf the web all day looking for deals, but a brick and mortar day is pretty hard to beat.
I don’t blame the local shops for charging what the market value is on the guns. If they don’t charge market value scalpers will buy them and sell them for market value. You would be ignorant as a business owner to leave four to $500 on the table on every gun you sold. Especially when restocking may be near impossible.
George P
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DING! DING! DING! Winner Winner Chicken Dinner; someone else gets Econ 101 Basic Supply and Demand
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