Purchased Jan 28 & submitted paperwork. Check cashed Mar 22.. Approved Oct 26. Received Nov 10. And I thought I had beaten the rush. Another guy at work bought his Hybrid on the same day, submitted same time, and got his 3 weeks earlier than I did.
Bought a third on three weeks after the first set this year. One might think - ah, 3 weeks after the last was received.. Well, I checked Wednesday, and it was still pending. It's actually getting longer if this is the way it's working for most.
I believe that when the great influx of forms came in just prior to July 13th, the ATF stopped processing current forms, and worked diligently to input the forms and, yep, cash those checks.. Pretty sure that the system is pretty clogged; and if your forms are received later, well, the best thing to do is to forget about it, and be surprised when it does come in. If you bought after the July 13th deadline, I'd be betting on the 1 year plus..