One should keep in mind that there will be exceptions to any general case, and that studies like Hitchman's are general extractions from the analysis of millions of casualties.
SIGH! I am not talking about exceptions. In fact much of Hitchman's hypothesis and incorrect conclusion are due to his example being the exception.
Chieftain, you make allusions to errors by Hitchman, and yet you provide no cites. Please quote specific errors in "Operational Requirements for an Infantry Hand Weapon" and cites for refutations.
I don't need cites for me to say he is wrong. Something like the experts stating that the Titanic is unsinkable. His conclusion is wrong.
I've seen lots of on-line criticism of the Hitchman report, but have yet to see one single specific refutation where an 'error' was quoted, and contradictory data was provided.
His conclusions are wrong. The believe me, the Titanic can sink.
Is there a role for aimed fire? Certainly, particularly in specific situations. Hitchman was addressing wholesale ground combat, and noting that statistically speaking the effectiveness of of so called 'precision marksmanship' was not a significant factor in infantry ground combat.
When was the last time we had Wholesale ground combat? World War II. Of course in your first paragraph you correctly state that there are exceptions. Where has there has been wholesale ground combat in the last 50 years involving US troops? The last time was in Korea, The Chinese Thanksgiving offensive of 1950 which included the Corps Chosin fight.
This yahoo, Hitchman is trying to justify why we shouldn't have used aimed fire in major mechanized battles of WW II. And a few scattered others since. THEY ARE IN FACT THE EXCEPTION!
The fact of the matter is that small arms in generally account for less that 1% of casualties on a modern mechanized battlefield, and it is precisely for this reason that little or no effort has been placed on small arms development in the last 50 years aside from generic projects like ACR and OICW which are little more than test bed projects with no goal of actually replacing small arms in the current inventory in any immediate time frame.
The numbers are simply untrue. Weapons other than small arms do deliver and inflict the most casualties. But those numbers are in the 88-90% (10-12% small arms) range, not 99%/1%. If you want the cite look it up. I ain't your secretary. Frankly in some modern conflicts it has run as high as 20%.
Projects like Salvo, SPIW, ACR and OICW have all validated Hitchman in that weapons that addressed the realities of modern infantry combat do lead to an increase in hit probability by introducing systems with multiple projectiles, or high rates of fire combined with intentional nutation of projectiles. ACR did partly achieve the goals of increased hit probability per target engagement. It just failed to produce the 100% improvement the Army was interested in. This was not a result of improved accuracy, but rather by using systems that compensated for the inability of the infantryman to accurately engage point targets while under the stress of combat.
The projects you cite, used Hitchman's incorrect conclusions to justify their ridiculous costs. It was rationalizations, not substantiation.
Unfortunately, too many people who have done nothing more than shoot at known distance ranges assume that scenario is valid in infantry combat. There certainly are situations where that occurs, but they are highly limited. Shooting at unknown distances at people who are shooting back at you, while moving, in difficult terrain, where both the shooter and target are utilizing terrain and concealment, is a very, very different matter.
I have certainly shot a lot of known range courses. I also have substantial combat experience. So just what is your point with this last statement?
If aimed fire is not effective, according to Hitchman and apparently you, why are we finding our guys so effective with the new combat optics, lasers, RedDots..etc?????
Why, because aimed fire does work. It will not create the large number of casualties that crew served and heavy weapons can accomplish. It will get a few more of our guys home alive, and hurry some T's to their meeting with 72 virgins at last count.
I know the damage these modern machines of war can deliver and inflict. I was a FAC. I was instrumental in the delivery of some of the most devastating conventional weapons in our arsenal at our time.
There aren't many Americans alive today that have ever been on the receiving end of a heavy and continuous heavy artillery bombardment. Not over hours, days, or weeks, a couple months. I am one of them.
I still believe in Aimed small arm's fire. I don't know many guys that have been in infantry ground combat that don't. Of course you have Hitchman and his conclusions.
Go figure.
Fred