Ammo search...The result?

[PapaG]

The hardware store in Plymouth, Indiana has a massive amount of ammo at reasonable prices. Their shelves are jammed full. They had probably 200 boxes of 9mm a few weeks ago for example

They also have a lot of obscure stuff. .303 Savage, .218 Bee. Weatherby rounds. .416.

Prices?

 

[Ignition Override]

Despite having Lots of stored 7.62x39, I just bought the nib PTR-91, and decided to slightly fatten my .308 reserve supply which began days ago with a 500-rds. case ordered Online.

In Academy yesterday at 2:00, this was far more ammo than I had seen before in any store , including in 2017. —Probably due to the prices.—

Many Cases of .223, 7.62x39, 5.45, .308, “9mm” etc had arrived that morning.

So much was on full carts that it just sat there.
Remember- 2:00 PM.
My Russian Monarch .308 was $18/ 20 rounds.

By the way, the fluted chambers used in the G3, HK-91 and PTR 91 ….Prefer steel-cased ammo for the easiest extraction in a violent process sometimes known to leave part of the brass Stuck in chambers, despite the “Fluting”.

 

[redneck2]

Prices

IIRC, the 9mm seemed reasonable, but I really don’t remember. I reload my center fire and I’ve got over 10k of .22, so I wasn’t buying. I just happened to see the overflowing shelves

 

[wbm]

Lot's of 223/5.56 NATO ammo here in low country South Carolina but all is $1.00 per round or more in LGS...way better online. 12-13/box

 

[Barbaroja]

Shelves are filling up in SW Washington. Prices still elevated but I doubt they will go down much further. If a box was $22 in early 2020 and $35 now. With the price increases from manufacturers, coupled with inflation. How outta whack is that price really? I don’t expect it to come down but another few dollars at most

 

[Will Munny]

Shelves are filling up in SW Washington. Prices still elevated but I doubt they will go down much further. If a box was $22 in early 2020 and $35 now. With the price increases from manufacturers, coupled with inflation. How outta whack is that price really? I don’t expect it to come down but another few dollars at most

For reference here is some price data.
https://ammopricesnow.com/9mm/
https://ammopricesnow.com/223-rem/
Note that the methodology on these is seeking a minimum price, so it is not going to reflect store prices very well. However, looking more at the relative changes than the absolute gives us some good data.

Price increases from manufacturers are not immutable, they can certainly go down. Inflation on the other hand is not going to be reversed, so that price increase is permanent. How much does that matter?
On 6/7/2020 .223 was selling at $0.32 per round, today it is selling at $0.43 a round, so an increase of 11 cents. Using the CPI, 3 cents of that is due to inflation, so the other 8 cents is real price increase.

So when looking at ammo on the shelf, about 27% of the relative increase is due to inflation. In your example then, the box that was $22 is up about $3.25 due to the inflation factor, which gives a real price of $25.25.
So, can $32 fall to $25.25?
I seriously doubt it.
First, because inflation is still high and though real ammo prices might fall it will take time and thus the nominal dollar figure they need to fall to to return to "normal" pricing is rising with time. So taking that trend into account perhaps $27-$28 might be the real convergence point.
Second, as the graph shows, we have been reaching a steady state since last August. This corresponds almost perfectly with what I saw on shelves over that time. In August, shelves were mostly empty, and now they are mostly full. So price stabilized during that time, had it continued to fall there would have been less on the shelves. While I do think some calibers that are currently hard to find, such as 30-06, have some room to decrease still, the popular NATO calibers seem to be in a steady state now at the current price.
Third, we have another election year with very serious political risk, it is entirely possible we end up with Democrats running the entire federal government come November. If Republicans do not both gain in the senate and take the house by a sizeable majority prices are likely to see another shock. Conversely, taking both houses will likely have a minimal impact on prices as even with congress in place there is a very serious risk the executive branch simply uses executive orders to do what it wants anyway.
Thus, my ammo forecast is improving availability with stable to slightly decreasing prices until end of summer, when both hunting season and political uncertainty begin to reduce availability and raise price.