Article claims "States with higher gun ownership have higher murder rates"

[Justin]

So your opinion could not be changed by facts or logic? And the results would be false even if they're true because you don't like the conclusion?

Tellner, can I assume that if this study is indeed factually correct that you will be getting rid of the firearms you own?

 

[Speer]

Typical misleading poison. How many of those deaths were justified? And I wonder what the researchers consider a child? 11? 25? How about the 16 year old crackhead who gets dropped by a cop? How many children are alive because a gun was there to save them? Indeed, how many times is a gun used defensively compared to criminally?

Me personally, I dont care if there is 500% more murders in states with more guns.

Of course. I don't want safety if it means life in a straightjacket. But that's what these people are selling: Tyranny wearing the mask of Public Safety. But just how safe is a public when it's stalked by unrelenting burglary? Here in California there is severe gun restriction, but it has not made us any safer from violent crime, which is all over this state.

 

[carebear]

In addition, even if this study stood up to even a cursory examination, which it doesn't (at least as described), it directly contradicts a slew of other, peer reviewed and confirmed studies on the same and/or very similar subjects that say the exact opposite.

Just because a study is a lone voice crying in the wilderness doesn't necessarily make it incorrect but it should mean it is held to a very high standard by responsible scientists before its results are bandied about.

The likelihood of it capturing some factor overlooked by multiple other actually peer-reviewed (this study has not yet been I'm sure) and proper methodology studies is unlikely.

Decent, non-biased scientists in this situation would show more restraint. The fact they haven't colors my view of them right off the bat.

 

[shield20]

OK - could not download a copy of this report, but I did find another similiar report "An evaluation of state firearms regulations and homicide suicide rates", from a Univ of Pittsburgh group.

Now - 1st thing, while looking at gun laws, they compare "homicide" and "firearm homicide" rates - NOT "murder", "gun related murder", or other gun related crimes, so what exactly they were trying to prove escapes me; they mention however the attempt to study 'the benefits of shall issue laws enacted with the goal of curtailing fiream deaths'... [hmmmmmm...'K....thought they were enacted to give the people back the right to self-security, avoid letting the people be unwilling victims of violent criminals, or...]

BUT ANYWAY, from Table 2:

Rates per 100,000...
Firearm Homicides [with shall issue law]: 5.00
Firearm Homicides [w/o shall issue law] : 5.90
All Homicides [rate with shall issue law] : 7.5
All homicides [rate w/o shall issue law] : 8.99

Summary Point 3::"A "shall issue" law that permits the carrying of a handgun in an unrestricted fashion may be associated with an increase in homicide rates."
WHAT????? But the numbers...right there...BOTH "w/ shall issue" homicide rates were lower...???

And from Table 4 Suicides
Rates per 100,00...
Firearm Suicides [with shall issue law]: 9.70
Firearm Suicides [w/o shall issue law] : 10.20
All Suicides [rate with law] : 14.5
All Suicides [rate w/o law] :14.5

Summary point 4: "Little evidence was observed that any of the laws evaluated (they include legal age 21 laws) were associated with a significant reduction in either firearm homicide or firearm suicide rates."
GREAT - not that is an issue, but what about the fact that...
THE CHARTS - YOUR CHARTS - show a reduction in not only Firearm Homicides, but all homicides AND a reduction in firearm suicides with shall issue laws vs. w/o shall issue laws, so what the $^^$#???

THIS IS WHAT WE ARE UP AGAINST! TOTAL BS, DESPITE THEIR OWN NUMBERS THAT SHOW THE CONTARY - THEY MAKE ABSURD STATEMENTS LIKE "MAY" AND "NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION" without mentioning what the study REALLY showed:

"with regards to the enactment of shall issue laws, even firearm homicides and suicides did not get worse, and in fact, they went down slightly. Giving the people the opportunity to defend themselves in NO way made homicide/suicide rates worse, but instead made them slightly better."

What crap!!

 

[jlbraun]

"In states with the most guns, firearm homicide rates were 114 percent higher, the researchers reported in the February issue of Social Science and Medicine."

That's idiocy. Of COURSE states with more firearms per person (say, WY) are going to have comparatively more people per 100,000 die from firearms than a disarmed state like New Jersey. But the article is maliciously trying to tell you that OVERALL the murder rate is higher - and trying to conflate the two.

It's malicious, bad statistics, and wrong - in other words, the usual.

 

[Standing Wolf]

Everybody knows French fries cause violent crime: after all, over 99% of all violent felons in prison ate French fries as children, didn't they?

 

[bumm]

"Our findings suggest that in the United States, household firearms may be an important source of guns used to kill children, women and men, both on the street and in their homes," said Matthew Miller, assistant professor of health policy and injury prevention, who led the study.

Obviously, a statement made by an unbiased researcher, simply reporting the results of his study...
Marty

 

[TallPine]

Well, this took me all of about 3 seconds to find ...

http://www.statemaster.com/graph/cr...p-murder-nonnegligent-manslaughter-per-capita

#1 District of Columbia: 3.597 per 10,000 people
#2 Louisiana: 1.269 per 10,000 people
#3 Maryland: 0.93 per 10,000 people
#4 New Mexico: 0.876 per 10,000 people
#5 Mississippi: 0.777 per 10,000 people
#6 Nevada: 0.712 per 10,000 people
#7 Arizona: 0.697 per 10,000 people
#8 South Carolina: 0.677 per 10,000 people
#9 Georgia: 0.676 per 10,000 people
#10 California: 0.662 per 10,000 people
#11 Michigan: 0.635 per 10,000 people
#12 Arkansas: 0.633 per 10,000 people
#13 North Carolina: 0.613 per 10,000 people
#14 Missouri: 0.61 per 10,000 people
#15 Illinois: 0.608 per 10,000 people
#16 Texas: 0.597 per 10,000 people
#17 Tennessee: 0.589 per 10,000 people
#18 Kentucky: 0.565 per 10,000 people
#19 Alaska: 0.558 per 10,000 people
#20 Alabama: 0.557 per 10,000 people
#21 Florida: 0.532 per 10,000 people
#22 Oklahoma: 0.524 per 10,000 people
#23 Pennsylvania: 0.523 per 10,000 people
#24 Virginia: 0.517 per 10,000 people
#25 Indiana: 0.504 per 10,000 people
#26 New York: 0.462 per 10,000 people
#27 Ohio: 0.451 per 10,000 people
#28 New Jersey: 0.45 per 10,000 people
#29 Kansas: 0.448 per 10,000 people
#30 Colorado: 0.435 per 10,000 people
#31 West Virginia: 0.374 per 10,000 people
#32 Montana: 0.321 per 10,000 people
#33 Washington: 0.302 per 10,000 people
#34 Wisconsin: 0.278 per 10,000 people
#35 Massachusetts: 0.264 per 10,000 people
#36 Connecticut: 0.259 per 10,000 people
#37 Hawaii: 0.259 per 10,000 people
#38 Vermont: 0.257 per 10,000 people
#39 Oregon: 0.247 per 10,000 people
#40 Rhode Island: 0.242 per 10,000 people
#41 South Dakota: 0.232 per 10,000 people
#42 Nebraska: 0.227 per 10,000 people
#43 Minnesota: 0.22 per 10,000 people
#44 Wyoming: 0.216 per 10,000 people
#45 Idaho: 0.21 per 10,000 people
#46 Delaware: 0.202 per 10,000 people
#47 Utah: 0.186 per 10,000 people
#48 Iowa: 0.155 per 10,000 people
#49 North Dakota: 0.141 per 10,000 people
#50 New Hampshire: 0.137 per 10,000 people
#51 Maine: 0.136 per 10,000 people

I don't think you can prove too much either way with this information, but notice that states like SD, WY, ID, UT, and ND (states with liberal gun laws) are in the bottom 10.

Seems to me the northern states in general have a lower murder rate - maybe you can blame global warming

MT (which probably has more guns than people) is #32, but I believe about 90% of our violent crime happens on (or is connected to) the reservations.

 

[carebear]

DC is DC but control, say, LA for Nawlins and I bet it drops waaaaaaay back in the pack. Similarly for MD for urban areas proximate to the Capital.

In fact, I bet if the numbers were controlled for population density it'd be a list of big, "liberal" cities leading the pack with the rural hinterlands down in insignificant numbers for the most part.

 

[TallPine]

Well, the Brady Bunch gives Maryland an A but it has the third highest murder rate.

Wyoming earns an F

I think one could statistically prove that there are more murders in the states with the highest homicide rates.

 

[Zundfolge]

So your opinion could not be changed by facts or logic?

I don't care if banning all guns would cause the spontaneous resurrection of every person murdered with one I would not support stripping me or anyone else of the right to keep and bear arms. Liberty is more important than security. Period.

And the results would be false even if they're true because you don't like the conclusion?

Not sure how you came to that conclusion. I'm arguing that the results are likely false (because these "studies" that support the anti-gun position pop up all the time and are often disproven within hours by someone like David Kopel or other pro gun activists) and that even if the facts of the study were true (that more guns are owned in areas with higher murder rates) I wouldn't agree with the conclusion that guns need to be banned.

Thank you. You have just told me everything I need to know.

Wow it must suck to be you having to share the world with people that don't just reflexively agree with you and pucker up to your backside.

 

[Librarian]

One question would be how did the survey determine gun ownership? Past surveys from the Harvard School of Public Health have included such wonderful methods as using gun deaths as a proxy for gun ownership. The resulting study then went on to trumpet that places with high gun ownership had the highest gun death rates - go figure.

The survey is Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. CDC is actually quite good about their methodology (it's their conclusions I sometimes have issues with, but this survey is only grist for the Harvard researchers, not a CDC analytical product.)

The researchers used the 2001 survey, which included this question:

Section 12: Firearms

The next question is about firearms, including weapons such as pistols, shotguns, and rifles; but not BB guns, starter pistols, or guns that cannot fire.

12.1. Are any firearms now kept in or around your home? Include those kept in a garage, outdoor storage area, car, truck, or other motor vehicle. (109)

1 Yes
2 No
7 Don’t know/Not sure
9 Refused

The (109) is the position in the data record for question 12 in this survey - STATE data value is in positions 1 and 2 - CA is " 6", DC is "11", WY is "56"; there are no " 3", " 7", "14", "43", "52", but I have no idea why.

The answers are as suggested in the press release:

                                                     Weighted 
     Value  Label                Frequency    Percent   Percent
     1     Yes                    67786     32.18     30.22
     2     No                    134095     63.65     64.98
     7     Don’t know/Not Sure      1074      0.51      0.56
     9     Refused                 7712      3.66      4.25
     Blank     Question not asked (Illinois)     1843

Probably the 2000 fatality data would be the appropriate set to analyze in comparison to the answers to the 'firearms...kept' answers from 2001. WISQARS, again.

The complete BRSS 2001 Zipped data file is available if someone wants to play - it expands to 160 megabytes, and is 212,510 records of 788 characters each. I have no tools at home to deal with a data set that big.

 

[Stretchman]

why is it in Texas, that CW holders are like, 2 % of the indecency with a child crowd? What's up there? I think it shows that overall, the crime rate for people who have CWs are lower, except that one statistic just rockets off the page.

Guys, better lock your daughters up when friends from this board come over...

Stretch
Quit cigs 1W 2D 34m ago. So far saved $54.14, 360 cigs not smoked and counting ...

 

[Waitone]

In all things political, begin by following the money

http://discoverthenetwork.org/funderProfile.asp?fndid=5310
<snip>
Today the Joyce Foundation seeks to “suppor[t] efforts to protect the natural environment of the Great Lakes, to reduce poverty and violence in the region, and to ensure that its people have access to good schools, decent jobs, and a diverse and thriving culture.” The Foundation has six main Giving Programs toward which it directs its philanthropy:

1. . . . . .

2. The Anti-Gun Program seeks to drive small gun dealerships out of business by placing the firearms industry completely under consumer product health and safety oversight. It misrepresents the findings of research on gun-related deaths by failing to distinguish between gun-related deaths among inner-city gang members, where the death rates from shootings are astronomical, and gun-related deaths among members of the general population, which are relatively rare. As a result, it depicts gun violence as a national epidemic, thereby creating a perceived justification for what it hopes will be the erosion of Second Amendment rights.

3. . . . . . .

4. . . . . . .

5. The Money and Politics program decries the effect that big money plays in American political life, and urges ever-stronger campaign finance reform laws. It also supports groups dedicated to coalition-building, advocacy, and litigation. The objective is to use trial lawyers and activist judges to promote leftist agendas that the citizenry and its elected lawmakers do not pass via the legislative process.

6. . . . . . .

<snip>

 

[ptmmatssc]

Have to chime in . My state has very few gun laws . We are shall issue , can have full auto and silencers, can open carry etc etc . The best part is that we have a very low crime rate yet we have A LOT of gun owners . Go figure . Maine is , and has been , considered a "safe" state regardless of the fact of there being a high gun ownership rate . Found this little article and what amazed me was the fact that they actually gave REAL reasons for more crime and not the "more guns" nonsense .


http://homes.mainetoday.com/news/021029crime_st.shtml


Maine had 19 murders in 2005 for a population of 1300000 . I'd say thats not to bad .

 

[longeyes]

living to be buff

+1 Waitone

Concern for health and the environment has become the weapon of choice for the anti-gun crowd. It's also their religion.

Health, with its high priesthood trumpeting the way, has become an obsession for an America that figures it had better massage its nerve-endings as much as possible and as well as possible during this short and terminal earthly stay.

 

[Justin]

FWIW, The Joyce Foundation is easily one of the biggest financial supporters of the anti-gun movement.

Our own Geekwitha.45 did a writeup on them awhile back.

If the Joyce Foundation is anywhere near by, you can bet that they knew the conclusions before even beginning the study.

 

[geekWithA.45]

Glenn Reynolds, aka Instapundit, wraps up the BS study neatly, and puts a big red bow on it:

http://instapundit.com/archives2/2007/01/post_1665.php

Money Quote:

If a drug company were as cavalier about science as these people are, its executives would all be in jail.

 

[ProguninTN]

Climate and Race

Climate and Race are factors. The colder states have lower rates. This could because people are more likely to remain in their warm homes rather than out in public where criminals may be lying in wait. Also, Malum Prohibitum acknowledges the relation of race to the statistics. As much as people want to ignore it, race is also a factor. The South has a higher percentage of Blacks, and Blacks have a higher prevalence of the perpetrators and victims of violent crimes. With the South also having a high prevalence of gun ownership, it provides a convenient front for antis to blame the guns for crimes rather than those committing them.

This angers the pro-gun crowd, and I'm sure it also angers law-abiding blacks, especially those who may also be pro-gun.

 

[Redneck with a 40]

Guns have been banned in Wash. D.C for 35 years and their homicide rate is six times the national average. On average, states that have "right to carry laws", see a significant reduction in violent crime, rapes fall by 25%, murders by 7%, robberies by 5%, ect. This study is a skewed, flawed study that is taking biased, selective information to reach faulty conclusions. A typical tactic of the anti-gunners.

www.gunfacts.info

 

[cbsbyte]

Wash. D.C is a southern city for many of us Notherners.
States with large urban areas tend to have higher crime rates than more rural states such with no large urban areas. Urban areas triple the murder rate in a state. If you look across the country rural states have less crime, than high population states.

 

[carebear]

If you control race for income many of the differences go away. Poor folks of every ethnicity tend to commit more violent crime. There's still a discrepency, but remember it is primarily a sociological (lifestyle), and not a color thing. Middle class and wealthy blacks, hispanics and asians commit violent crime at about the same rate as their white peers.

You give me a compact, urban bunch of white trash poor boy methheads and I'll show you about the same level of violent crime within that sub group as a bunch of poor black crack dealers. Blacks and hispanics tend to be concentrated in crappy urban areas which really spikes the numbers just due to proximity and density. Many poor whites in similar circumstances are more rural and don't have the density to push up the rates.

There's a lot more to it than race , using the truth in shorthand is okay, but don't forget the reality behind the generalizations. It's mostly poverty and the attitudes it can generate, not race.

 

[svtruth]

I think it is BS

1) When Brady grades came out a couple of years ago I converted them to a 4.0 point scale and regressed gun violence rates against them-it resulted in a weak negative correlation. That is high Brady grades were associated with higher levels of gun violence.
2) The CDC published a paper that found no link between (legal) gun availability and gun violence.
3) Like Kedic, I am very suspicious of using the quartiles vs just ranking the states.
Just my two cents.

 

[ProguninTN]

Carebear

Yes, income is also relevant. Perhaps, I should have mentioned that. You include a reference to lifestyle; Might that be a reference to Routine Activities Theory ? (Lifestyle is indeed another important factor.)

 

[Prince Yamato]

If this school is funded by tax payer dollars and they spent time and money doing research and the conclusion they came up with was essentially false, I'm going to be pissed. I swear, I sometimes think I want to do a study proving that higher instances of birds means more human babies because of a higher stork population. I mean cripes.