Ballistics opinion statement.....Opinions?

[phantomak47]

I have never seen this ballistics opinion/quasi report here on the highroad and I was wondering how credible it is and valid. The purpose of my posting this link is not to start a flame war between 9mm vs. .45 acp as that has been beaten to death here and other places. Flames are not productive.


How reliable is this report?


http://www.gunthorp.com/Terminal Ballistics as viewed in a morgue.htm

 

[gbran]

Some good anecdotal info. I'm not sure it's unbiased or consistent. Of course, I'm being polite.

 

[MostlyGenius]

The authors best points (that I will paraphase) shoot what you shoot well, and shoot whatever caliber you believe in.

The biggest problem I see is that there is nothing in the anecdotes about "when" the bad guy stopped. A single hit from the caliber of your choice may have dropped the assailant stone dead, or he drove home microwaved a TV dinner, and finally bled out the next morning.

If we believe in "one-shot-stops" and we define a "stop" as the bad guy being no longer interested in continuing the encounter then the caliber probably doesn't matter. If we define a stop as kills the bad guy stone dead on the spot then I think that shot placement is orders of magnitude more important than caliber, or bullet selection.

 

[Millwright]

Hey, you got an 'on the scene report' from someone alleging to see a lot of lethal trauma. Maybe. Take it for what its worth - a purely subjective recounting of observations.

On the negative side, I can't reconcile the tone, or demeanor of the writer with that of a medical professional knowing he will be called upon to testify on his observations. >MW

 

[elrod]

Lot of good common sense. Nothing earth-shaking that I saw, interesting to see it through his eyes, however.

 

[davepool]

In defensive shooting and real estate it's all about location, location,location....sooo, practise, practise, practise. He did say he's seen more 9mm and .380 than any other.

 

[Conqueror]

He did say he's seen more 9mm and .380 than any other.

This is a non-sequitur. Quantity does not equal percentage, and percentage is what's important. Since more people get shot with 9mms, it stands to reason that more people die from 9mms regardless of how effective the caliber is. I suspect deadmeat's data would look something like this:

Caliber......# of shootings...........# of deaths
.380..............400........................220
9mm..............300........................200
.45................100........................85

While he would see more deaths, quantitatively, from .380 and 9mm, when you compare the actual death rate from the different calibers, you would see that .380 has a ~55% death rate, 9mm has a 66% death rate, and .45 has an 85% death rate. This is why percentages are most important. I've read many times that .22LR is the most common fatal gunshot wound in the US, but that's obviously not because it's a highly lethal round. It's simply because everyone and their mother owns a .22 so lots of people get shot with them (but the death rate from .22 GSWs would be quite low).

 

[davepool]

Wonderful stats where did you find them?

 

[antsi]

I also like bullets to expend all their energy in the body, not only for the protection of nearby civilians, but because I think it imparts more damage.

I have heard many people say this, but it makes no sense to me at all.

I am not super impressed with the linked web page. Anecdotal evidence, even based on a great deal of experience, can be extremely misleading. There are all kinds of biases in human recall. If you're not keeping track of data in a systematic way, and carefully analyzing the processes that select what data you see and what data you don't see, you are very likely to be misled. In short, the guy is probably correct about some things and incorrect about others. Unfortunately, neither we nor he have any way of knowing which is which.

a purely subjective recounting of observations

Bingo.

 

[Conqueror]

Wonderful stats where did you find them?

They aren't real, I made them up. I was just illustrating why the guy could simultaneously see lots of dead BGs from .380 or 9mm but still not favor it for self-defense.