Bird Flu pandemic

[Venkman]

Might I suggest people make sure to take their vitamins and get enough sleep starting now! Nothing combats sickness like being healthy in the first place.

 

[hso]

dsquared has made an excellent point.

Think about the problems that happen at work when cold/flue season hits. You can't get the copier fixed because the service guy is out sick. You can't get your expense report back because the clerks are sick (or their kids).

Multiply this and ask how many essential services are automatic enough to tolerate having people who run them out for a coupe of weeks with no backup?

Now that's got my interest!

 

[Dave Markowitz]

WSJ Article on Avian Flu

From the Wall Street Journal:

AVIAN FLU: PREVENTING A PANDEMIC

Avian Virus Caused
The 1918 Pandemic,
New Studies Show

By BETSY MCKAY
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
October 6, 2005; Page B1

There is a new reason to worry that the avian-flu virus could erupt with
little notice into a global pandemic that kills millions of people: It
happened already.

After nearly a decade of research, teams of scientists said yesterday
that they had re-created the historic influenza virus that by some
estimates killed 50 million people world-wide in 1918 and 1919. The
scientists concluded that the virus originated as an avian bug and then
adapted and spread in humans by undergoing much simpler changes than
many experts had previously thought were needed for a pandemic.

Some mutations of the 1918 virus have been detected in the current
avian-flu virus, suggesting the bug "might be going down a similar path
that led to 1918," says Jeffery Taubenberger, chief of molecular
pathology at the U.S. Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, who led one
of two studies.

The studies, published yesterday in the journals Nature and Science by
researchers from the Armed Forces institute, the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, and Mount Sinai School of Medicine, suggest that
a bird-flu pandemic could erupt in more ways than previously thought --
and could be as lethal as its predecessor. Unlocking the mysteries of
the 1918 bug "has taken on new urgency," says Dr. Taubenberger.

The findings could also help researchers hone their efforts to develop
vaccines and treatments for avian flu by pinpointing which pieces of the
virus made it so virulent. CDC researchers narrowed in on a gene in the
re-created 1918 virus that allows the bug to attach itself to cells and
multiply. With the gene, the virus was highly lethal; it lost its
virulence when researchers removed it. Those findings and the genetic
makeup of the virus will now be publicly available. The U.S. National
Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity endorsed making the genetic
information public to promote development of tests, treatments and
preventive measures, the CDC said.

Deciphering clues from the bug has never been so urgent. Avian flu
continues to spread in poultry flocks and is jumping to humans with
increasing frequency. The lethal strain has claimed 60 lives in
Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia since late 2003.

Most of those cases occurred in people who had direct contact with
infected poultry. But health officials are concerned that the virus
could mutate and begin spreading between humans, and that when it does,
it will rapidly sweep the globe. On Tuesday, President Bush unexpectedly
announced he would consider using the military to enforce quarantines in
the event of an outbreak in the U.S.

"If 1918 happened like this, why couldn't or shouldn't 2005 happen like
this?" says Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious
Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, who has
warned in several papers that the H5N1 virus could morph into a
1918-like pandemic. "These viruses are kissing cousins."

Precisely why and how the 1918 virus killed so many people has been
considered one of the greatest remaining secrets of virology, and the
team led by Dr. Taubenberger has spent the past nine years trying to
decipher it. According to historical accounts, suffocating victims
turned deep shades of blue; many hemorrhaged, bleeding even from their
eyes and ears. More people died during the pandemic than in World War I.
Unlike with most flu epidemics, most of the casualties were
otherwise-healthy people ranging in age from 15 to 34.

But studying the virus was nearly impossible until recently because
virus samples weren't preserved at the time. In February 2004, Dr.
Taubenberger and his team published sequences for five of the 1918
virus's eight genes, using material preserved from the lungs of U.S.
soldiers killed by the flu, as well as the body of an Inuit woman
exhumed in 1997 from the Alaskan permafrost. The team completed
sequencing the remaining three genes, and their work is published this
week in Nature.

They concluded that the pandemic was caused by an avian virus. The
scientists also discovered 10 changes in amino acids that distinguish
the 1918 virus from avian bugs, suggesting that the virus mutated on its
own, without mixing with another virus, to become transmissible in
humans, they say. The current avian bug has made five of the 10 changes
found in the 1918 virus. (Emphasis added by DM.)

In the study in Science, researchers from the CDC, Mount Sinai, and
others then re-created the virus using a process known as reverse
genetics to determine which of its features made it so lethal. The virus
was then injected into embryonated chicken eggs and mice and was found
to be "exceptionally virulent," says Terrence Tumpey, a senior scientist
at the CDC who led the effort. The team also found that the bug had an
unusual ability to penetrate cells that flu viruses don't usually reach
deep in the lungs, providing some clues as to why the disease's symptoms
were so severe.

While the research advances scientists' understanding of the avian-flu
threat, it raises questions about how to keep the virus from escaping
from a laboratory or falling into the hands of bioterrorists. Not only
has the virus now been created in a CDC lab, but its genetic information
will be published in GenBank, a public genetic-sequence database
maintained by the National Institutes of Health.

Dr. Tumpey says the experiments were approved by two CDC committees with
internal and external experts, and were conducted under strict safety
and security standards inside a CDC lab.

The 1918 flu virus would be unlikely to cause a pandemic today, Dr.
Tumpey says. This virus is in the same family as the seasonal influenza
viruses that have been circulating for several years. Many people today
have some immune protection from these types of viruses because they
have been exposed to the seasonal flu viruses either through natural
infection or vaccination.

The researchers say they are pushing ahead with their work. Dr. Tumpey
says he and his colleagues plan to analyze the remaining four of the
eight genes whose virulence they didn't study, with the hope of
identifying more virus proteins. Dr. Taubenberger of the Armed Forces
Institute says his team's goal is to create a "checklist" that would
help researchers tracking viruses determine which mutations are
important and which are minor.

"We hope to work out in the future the rules of how this happens, how a
bird virus becomes a human virus," he says.

 

[WT]

I can't see a military enforced quarantine working.

You've got a bunch of 20 something year old soldiers trying to round up a bunch of sick people. Once the soldiers start coughing, gagging and dying the soldiers will run off ala' NOPD.

Heck, my county's emergency management team has the mass gravesites already picked out.

I feel sorry for you young guys. All us old pharts will have your girlfriends and wives chasing us when you are gone and buried.

 

[Lone_Gunman]

I feel sorry for you young guys. All us old pharts will have your girlfriends and wives chasing us when you are gone and buried.

Maybe, but without the workers in the Viagra factory, you ain't gonna be doing nothing with those women, old timer.

 

[det.pat]

from what i have read on the 1918 flu, it started/was traced back to Ft. Leonard Wood and to troops processing to ship to europe. then from europe on to the rest of the world. these things can be very persistant agents as witnessed by the current strains of plague in asia today being traceable to the strains released by japanese biowar units in WWII china. [unit 714 i believe]
pat

 

[Dave R]

Our church (Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints--aka Mormons) recommends that members store a year's supply of food, clothing and fuel where practical. ( I would add ammo ) Maybe that's why.

They also recommend keeping a 72-hour kit, AKA a bug-out bag.

 

[CDignition]

What costitutes a years worth of food for family of 4?? I would think youre looking at a Semi truck of stuff...

 

[mr_dove]

I don't have 4 but we just bought some of our "years supply"

400 pounds of rice
350 pounds of beans
75 pounds of sugar
16 pounds of salt

That's just a start for us but it will cover many essentials.

Ok, back on topic.

 

[Blue Jays]

Hi All-

Allow me to "second" that idea of using this time to get fit, take a few extra vitamins, obtain sufficient sleep, and ensure suitable exercise. If the virus makes the transition, avoid human contact, wash your hands frequently, wear a respirator, and do your best to ride it out. Folks in closer quarters would certainly have more to fear than those in suburban or rural conditions in terms of exposure risk. What a frightening scenario in the WSJ article.

~ Blue Jays ~

 

[The_Antibubba]

Vaccine

Obviously, you can't create a vaccine for a virus that doesn't exist yet. But why not create one using the known avian strains, including the one from 1918? It wouldn't confer complete protection, but it would give some coverage, wouldn't it?

 

[Gabe]

Everyone need to get a flu shot this year, and every year. Reason being if you get sick inspite of a flu shot, you have a much better idea if something is really wrong.

Here's a product you might consider:

http://www.antisepticausa.com/?OVRAW=+bird +flu&OVKEY=bird flu&OVMTC=standard

 

[Dave R]

What costitutes a years worth of food for family of 4??

Its not nearl a semi-truck load. Remember, we're talking survival basics. Minimums. You can find guidelines at Provident Living

 

[T. Bracker]

I think the media is using this story as the "next big thing". Let's start with the fact that there have only been about 150 deaths from avian flu since 1997. We have nearly 30,000 deaths annually associated with standard influenza every year in this country. It is not 1908 with the medical treatment available then, so the idea of "millions" of deaths just doesn't hold up in our country. In third world countries? Yes, it could be a big problem.

 

[Mannlicher]

Why don't we just assume that the whole bird flu thing is a sensationalized minor maybe event that just is not going to happen. Again, the Media, and government are blowing this way beyone reality, for god knows what reason.

There, now you don't have to worry about another non event. Remember, the last 'pandemic', SARS, killed only 800, and that was to be the mother of all pandemics.

 

[mr_dove]

Don't we say, in reference to our guns, that its better to have one and not need it than to need one and not have it. I think that this is much the same. Best to prepare needlessly then to wish we had prepared when its too late.

 

[TCW]

It's good to be capable of self-reliance for an extended period of time...bird flu or not.

Let's say there's a major terror attack (nuke). Even if the event happened hundreds of miles away, how long before panic kicked in and the food shelves were emptied? And of course, natural disasters, pandemics and bio-terror could happen at any time, and we cannot rely on the Gov't (or anyone) for immediate assistance. I suggest that everyone take measures to have significant food, water, meds/sanitization, masks, flashlight/batteries, communication/portable radio, blankets, etc. "Store what you eat, eat what you store" = no money lost.

THR is about being prepared. Let's get prepared.

 

[Dragun]

nice link, Dave R. i'm going to make good use of it, thx.

 

[Cosmoline]

Given the high level of global traffic, the pandemic virus may spread rapidly, leaving little or no time to prepare.

Exactly--and this is why GW's notions of clamping down on some small town to keep the thing from spreading is absurd. By the time anyone notices, thousands at airports will have been exposed, and taken the germs to hundreds of thousands more all over the nation. Quarantine only works when you have fragile pathogens with super high mortality transferring by fluids--Ebola for example. A flu? Forget it.

about 150 deaths from avian flu since 1997

True, but the concern isn't about avian flu in its current form, but rather a potential mutated form that spreads like normal flu by human to human vector not just by bird to human vector. Even more disturbing is the potential that, like the Spanish Flu, it will seem like a normal flu at first to the afflicted. They will have been around no asian chickens, so they'll figure it's just the seasonal flu and go about their business.

 

[Byron Quick]

T Bracker,

The potential for a catastrophic pandemic from a mutated avian flu can not be minimized by saying only 150 have died from it since 1997. That's true but that's not what the problem is. The problem is that over 50% of the people who have caught the disease have died from it What is keeping it from being a pandemic now is that it only crosses from infected birds to humans in close contact. There's been one case of human to human contagion but it went no further. If it mutates to allow the contagion rates of ordinary human influenza, we've got problems.

Your opinion of modern medical care with regards to the flu is not correct. We can vaccinate for a particular strain if we have enough time to manufacture the vaccine. The manufacturing facilities use technology that is about fifty years old. We don't have any plants using modern technology.

We've got one drug, Tamiflu, that is somewhat effective against the flu. If used early enough. Modern medical care of people with life threatening cases of the flue consists primarily of supportive therapy which aims to keep you alive while your immune system finally drives off the virus. Count the hospital beds and you'll realize something real fast. If a serious pandemic strikes, there won't be enough hospital beds, doctors, or nurses to provide medical care to everyone that's sick. If a hundred million people catch a pandemic flu in the US, that's slightly more that 1/3 of the population. One of every three. Including one of every three doctors and nurses. (Actually, there will probably be a higher infection rate among hospital employees) I don't think many of that hundred million will see much modern medical care. If they get 1918 level medical care, it will be a wonder.

Those infection and fatality rates are worst case scenario for an influenza pandemic. But Hurricane Katrina should have taught the folks who believe in sticking their heads in the sand and ignoring problems to make them go away a lesson. And Hurricane Katrina was not the worst case scenario for a hurrican hitting New Orleans. I don't think our health care system could handle a pandemic that only infected 10 million people in the US. Not one that had a 50% fatality rate.

No one can say when the next pandemic will happen. No one can say that it will be this avian flu virus that mutates. But, judging from the past, and filtering it through what is known of virii-it can definitely be said that a pandemic will occur. Some are not that bad.

Do you know of anyone who died in the pandemics of 1957 or 1968? I don't.
Never heard of anyone who died in those two. Now 1918...my grandmothers told me about that.

 

[rudolf]

Obviously, you can't create a vaccine for a virus that doesn't exist yet. But why not create one using the known avian strains, including the one from 1918? It wouldn't confer complete protection, but it would give some coverage, wouldn't it?
__________________
The Antibubba

That is exactly what has been done. But the H5N1 coming now is quite different from the H1N1 from 1918.

 

[Andrew Rothman]

I'm convinced.

Going to Sam's Club today anyhow. Time to stock up on the bug-in food.

* Big ol' bag-o-rice
* Canned hams (yum!)
* Beans, pasta, grains in bulk
* Dried milk? (This stuff doesn't store very well, and we don't regularly use it)
* Cans of chili, stew, etc.
* Peanut butter
* Evaporated milk?
* Dry oatmeal


The way I see it, if it's stuff you use anyhow, you can't lose.

Now I just need to find some airtight storage....

 

[rudolf]

Your home will be the best place to stay. You'll need lots of supplies, and you might need to treat a relative or yourself. The best place for that will be your home.

A good idea would be to install some kind of 2way communication at your house, Then you can communicate without letting the virus in.

 

[charby]

I'm just going to bug in, I have 6 weeks of sick leave built up at work. I'm going to make sure my cable bill is paid up and maybe add a few more movie channels for my bug in. I have at least a month worth of food on hand. Not to worried if I get quarentied but I'll be lonely without the Internet because I am low tech at home except for cable TV

Charby

 

[RaggedClaws]

The problem is that over 50% of the people who have caught the disease have died from it

This statistic only counts those infected chicken farmers in Asia, right? The ones with the excellent nutrition and medical care, right?

If it mutates...

That's a mighty big "if". If HIV mutates so that... If a more common flu virus mutates to become... If a presently harmless bacteria mutates in such a way... If If If. It's not only that it mutates, but that it mutates in a very specific way. Don't get me wrong, we are certainly due for a serious disease outbreak, such have been the bane of humans for thousands of years, but I don't see the cause of the panic that's sweeping the MSM right now about this bird flu.

Yes, we should always be as prepared as possible for disease outbreaks. Stay as healthy and well-rested as you realistically can. Keep medicines stocked at home and deal with symptoms as quickly and effectively as you can. Get regular check-ups, wash your hands often, etc. But I don't think that because a handful of Asian chicken farmers died from a flu variant they got directly from their chickens, we should be preparing for the end of the world as we know it.