Bird Flu pandemic

[pcf]

Ragged Claws, You beat me to it

This statistic only counts those infected chicken farmers in Asia, right? The ones with the excellent nutrition and medical care, right?

Is H5N1 a very serious threat? Yes, but before we get informed by the educated TEOWAWKI types at the Wall Street Journal.........

Some decent things to read on avian flu and the flu in general,

CDC-Influenza

CDC-Avian Flu

WHO(CSR) Disease update Influenza

WHO(CSR)-Avian Flu

Doctors are experts on safe gun design, like the WSJ are experts on the threat posed by avian flu.

 

[Thin Black Line]

Quote:
"The problem is that over 50% of the people who have caught the disease have died from it."
---------------------

Actually, 25% die and only 50% even show symptoms. What this means
is 50% of people with the virus will show no symptoms whatsoever.

 

[Byron Quick]

That's a mighty big "if".

No, it's not. Not when you are looking at a flu virus. The only question about flu vius mutation is when and what the result will be, not if it will mutate. Mutate is what flu virii do-constantly. Study it.

 

[c_yeager]

No, it's not. Not when you are looking at a flu virus. The only question about flu vius mutation is when and what the result will be, not if it will mutate. Mutate is what flu virii do-constantly. Study it.

This is correct, it is also the reason why a new flu vaccine has to be made every single year.

 

[bcochran]

information

I have been tracking the avian flu situation for three years. During that time I discuss the same with my sister who is a full professor and an epdimeologist.
Our grandfather died of the Spanish flu in 1918.

Things to understand:

1. only about 50% of the people exposed to a flu every exhibit symptoms.
2. the mortality rate among people who have expressed symptoms is about 50%.
3. flus do mutate. The second year of the three year cycle is usually the worst for deaths. You will have a vaccine by the time of the second year.
4. what you understand to be a flu vaccine is actually a vaccine for protection against several previous mutant strains.
5. it takes at least 90 days to put out a vaccine, even then, it might not be effective if the flu has mutated too much;
6. there is no cure;
7. there is no current vaccine;
8. only avoidance, hydration, good food and rest are available.
9. in the worst pandemics, the deaths occur within 2 weeks in a geographical area and the unfortunates die in just a few days.
10. the worst hit are people with existing respirtory diseases, workers betwen 20 and 30 and small children - so stay indoors for a couple of weeks and pray.

Last week 500,000 people in Romania were put on tamiflu. Tamiflu is an anti viral that does not prevent. It only ameliorates symptoms. It must be administered with 48 hours of exposure, not 48 hours of expression of symptoms. The inference is that there was believed to be human to human transmission. Otherwise, several million dollars were spent ineffectively by a poor country.

There has been at least one documented human to human transmission last year in Thailand wherein a mother contracted it from her dying daughter in the hospital. The facts were that the mother was not living in the home or town, the child was being raised by someone else and the mother returned home 100s of miles and stayed in the hospital with her daughter. The mother died too.

By the way, on a different topic, SARS originated with a Red Chinese physician who went to Hong Kong. He was a researcher at a Red Chinese biochemical warfare laboratory on the mainland. oops!

 

[c_yeager]

Last week 500,000 people in Romania were put on tamiflu. Tamiflu is an anti viral that does not prevent. It only ameliorates symptoms. It must be administered with 48 hours of exposure, not 48 hours of expression of symptoms. The inference is that there was believed to be human to human transmission. Otherwise, several million dollars were spent ineffectively by a poor country.

Not to mention a growing concern about tamiflu rapidly losing its effectivness through overuse. Japan in particular is already experiencing a noticable increase in resistance to the medication, probably resulting from the fact that they hand it out like candy (see mexico + penecillin).

 

[T. Bracker]

Byron,

What exactly is your experience with taking care of actual patients suffering from influenza? My opinion of modern medical care is, in fact, very correct. I will give you one example, IV antibiotics. The previous posts are correct with regards to the actual mortality. Not 50% of all infected. As I said before, more hype. Just like the vaccine shortage last season, it was a typical year for the flu, no significant uptick in the number of flu related deaths. Oh, by the way, most of the deaths are not from influenza, but from a secondary coinfection with bacteria (treatable).

 

[c_yeager]

My opinion of modern medical care is, in fact, very correct. I will give you one example, IV antibiotics.

IV antibiotics have no effect on the flu itself. The reason why antibiotics are often given to people suffering the flu is because those people typically have compromised immune systems in the first place (hence hospitalization for the flu), which is exacerbated by the viral infection. This places them at *extreme* risk for secondary bacterial infection, which is what the antibiotics are for.

I belive that Bryon is a nurse BTW.

 

[shermacman]

There has been at least one documented human to human transmission last year in Thailand wherein a mother contracted it from her dying daughter in the hospital.

At risk of not becoming hysterical over The Turd World flu, color me under-whelmed.

 

[Capteddie]

Preview
The biggest threat from the avian-flu virus or any other disease outbreak, is going to be the break down in infrastructure and supply. Those of us who choose to take responsibility for our actions and the welfare of our families and ourselves will be faced with the majority of people who prefer to believe that the gov't will take care of them. I would expect many of these less prepared individuals to attempt to gain access to the supplies those of us who take our continued existence into our own hands have squirreled away.

Of course there is always the possibility to 'shoot'em on site', however this would potentially lead to several undesirable outcomes. Legal, justified or not you would likely still have to prove it once the SHTF situation subsides. Retaliation, even scum balls are likely to have someone who is going to take their demise the wrong way. Disposing of the carcass, remember these are potentially infected people who also decided to put their life in the hands of others. Most importantly, ALERTING OTHERS TO THE FACT THAT YOU ARE PREPARED.

It may seem like a deterrent to let others know you are armed, and in the beginning it may be, but if the situation is at all prolonged those who are not prepared will rapidly become desperate. At this point the fact that you are armed may also indicate that you are otherwise prepared / provisioned. Making you a target for repeated attack. You say, 'No Problem, I have plenty of ammo. I can take care of myself'. Maybe so, but what happens when the unprepared stop thinking about taking our stuff and start thinking about killing you just because you have stuff, they don't, and 'they said on TV this bird virus was going to kill us all anyway'. Just look at the 'people' shooting at the rescue helicopters in N.O.

One of the most difficult things in the world to do is stop people who have no hope of living or therefore fear of dying, as has been proven again and again in history.

My plan in the event of a pandemic is to hole up with my family in our home and to the very best of my ability make it look as if I was as unprepared as most people will be. Examples, no cooking outdoors, dispose of waste at night and out of site, not burning lights at night, etc... Basically avoiding doing anything to give those outside my home the impression that I and my family are HAVES and not HAVE NOTS

If all else fails I would not hesitate in the least to use one of my guns to defend my family and property, but only as a last resort and not without careful consideration of the consequences.

 

[c_yeager]

At risk of not becoming hysterical over The Turd World flu, color me under-whelmed.

Learn more about how this works. Human to human transmission is the single missing piece of the puzzle that makes this into a world wide outbreak. Once the virus makes that single step there is nothing left to stop it.

 

[Thin Black Line]

Quotes:

"Last week 500,000 people in Romania were put on tamiflu. Tamiflu is an anti viral that does not prevent. It only ameliorates symptoms. It must be administered with 48 hours of exposure, not 48 hours of expression of symptoms. The inference is that there was believed to be human to human transmission. Otherwise, several million dollars were spent ineffectively by a poor country."

And:

"There has been at least one documented human to human transmission last year in Thailand wherein a mother contracted it from her dying daughter in the hospital."
--------------------
The fact is that this was never confirmed. Human to human has not been
found yet. Yet.

The people in Romania are not receiving tamiflu en masse. They are
receiving standard flu shots. Here are the current measures being
undertaken in Romania:

"Control measures:

A. Undertaken:
- stamping out;
- quarantine;
- movement control inside the country;
- screening;
- disinfection of infected premises/establishment;
- dipping/spraying."
------------

A standard flu vaccine is being given so people are not weakened by
one flu and killed by the other. Giving tamiflu when it is not indicated
would result in the possibility that the virus would develop a resistance
to it.

Are you sure you didn't get the two confused? Do you have a source
article for the current use of tamiflu?

 

[stevelyn]

Yup, need to keep the sheep whipped up in a frenzy of fear.

 

[RaggedClaws]

Mutate is what flu virii do-constantly. Study it.

I apologize if I wasn't clear. I wasn't taking issue with the statement that it will mutate. I was taking issue with the statement that it will mutate in a very particular way. Of course it will mutate, but it will mutate randomly. All simple organisms with tiny life cycles will mutate in a random way constantly, that's an obvious fact to anyone who passed high school biology (at least I hope it is).

What isn't a fact is that the next [hundred thousand million] mutation of the Avian Bird Flu virus will enable quick and easy human-to-human communicability. The idea that such a mutation is inevitable and close at hand is hype intended to inspire fear.

 

[Colt]

I have a feeling that if an area was quarantined, soldiers would probably bring by some MREs so that people wouldn't leave their home, and to prevent looting within the area.

I agree. At least initially, before the flu became wide-spread, the military would supply staples to the quarantined areas.

I'm not sure I would take them, though. I'd much rather use my own provisions than risk bringing something into my house that I'm not 100% sure is pure. I'd lock up the house and sit tight.

 

[Byron Quick]

Duplicate post.

 

[Byron Quick]

Byron,

What exactly is your experience with taking care of actual patients suffering from influenza? My opinion of modern medical care is, in fact, very correct. I will give you one example, IV antibiotics. The previous posts are correct with regards to the actual mortality. Not 50% of all infected. As I said before, more hype. Just like the vaccine shortage last season, it was a typical year for the flu, no significant uptick in the number of flu related deaths. Oh, by the way, most of the deaths are not from influenza, but from a secondary coinfection with bacteria (treatable).

I have worked for 11 years as a registered nurse in the emergency department and on medical floors of hospitals. I have a Bachelor of Science in Nursing. Your opinon of modern medical care is correct, as far as it goes. What it does not take into account is the availability of that care to everyone who would be infected in a pandemic. Give you a hint: If we had an injection that would cure a pandemic influenza immediately, and had as few as 10 million people infected, we would have a very large number of deaths simply due to a lack of the logistical ability to get the medicine to the infected people along with enough people trained to give the injections. It's not the absolute ability of medical care that I am doubting. It's the ability of the existing infrastructure to deliver that care in a timely fashion to those infected millions in a pandemic. And, friend, the medical knowledge might be there. The infrastructure to deliver that care in the next week to ten million people or more is not.

And your quibbling about what you call hype. What I am saying is that over 50% of those infected have died. You say, oh no, only 50% of those infected develop symptoms. Only 50% of the people who develop symptoms die. Apples and oranges, friend. It's still a mortality rate of 25%. So with your 'hype' removed, let's assume that 20 million people are infected in the US. Only 10 million develop symptoms and only 5 million die. Some hype. Oh, and the ten million that don't develop symptoms? They're actively spreading the virus to more people. But rest easy, by your scenario only 25% of the people that 10 million infect will die. Do a Google search on 'virgin field epidemics.'

Your IV antibiotics. OK. Do a google search for the IV antibiotics used. Then find out what the total number of doses used in a serious case is. Then find out what the total stock on hand is. And the total stock of IV tubing. And the total number of people qualified to administer IV therapy. And how long it takes a person so qualified to treat one patient with IV antibiotics. Then manipulate the results with basic arithmetic. I think you'll see what I'm saying very soon.

It's like I told a lady threatening to sue the other day because we did not treat her daughter immediately in the Emergency Department:"Lady, we have given your daughter a medical screening. She is in no immediate or imminent danger. When we have a room open, we will treat your daughter. But we are FULL. If you think that you can find a lawyer who will sue us because every room is full, our one doctor is treating those patients, and our nurses are assisting him...go right ahead and do it."

Tell me exactly how IV antibiotics will help someone who cannot get into the hospital because there is not even walking space in the halls. What good is IV antibiotics going to do someone when ALL of the IV antibiotics have been exhausted? What good is IV antibiotics going to do when ALL of the IV tubing sets have already been used? Even if you have the good fortune to be in a hospital that has room, the IV antibiotics and IV sets...what good is that going to do if the people that can inititiate the therapy have worked down the line of waiting patients, around the clock and into complete exhaustion, and still haven't made it to where you're trying vainly to breathe?

You're not over-estimating the ability of modern medicine to treat a particular illness. You are grossly over-estimating the ability of modern medicine to deliver a particular treatment to millions of people within a very short time frame. While you're googling...look for the total number of hospital beds in the US.

Oh, by the way, most of the deaths are not from influenza, but from a secondary coinfection with bacteria (treatable).

This is too good to pass up. Do you see the oxymoron here? Most of the deaths come from secondary infections that are treatable. The secondary infections must not have been very treatable or the patients would not have died.

 

[T. Bracker]

Byron,

Sorry, but the illnesses are treatable, whether they were or not is a separate question. May have been a very elderly patient who was DNR for other reasons etc. Very few healthy, non compromised patients die from the flu. Exceptions certainly happen, there are a handful of deaths related to complications from the chicken pox every year. All I am saying is that at this point the hype exceeds the risk and that the media is doing a good job of scaring average folks about their relative risk.

By the way, I am a MD with 15 years of experience and was discussing this very thing with a infectious disease specialist with 20+ years experience and his opinion mirrors my own. No question that it could be a problem, but the end of the world disaster that some in the media would have you believe? No. Do a google on the SARS issue and again you will see that the hype exceeded the actual problem.

 

[Sinsaba]

No question that it could be a problem, but the end of the world disaster that some in the media would have you believe

I don't understand (please forgive me I'm just a layman), if 10% (I use 10% to err on the low side) of the US population were die, this wouldn't be an "end of the world disaster"? Maybe not for the human race but what about the United States?

Ok, the other 90% would live but what would it do to society? Not just the deaths, but the steps that people would take?

Look at the steps the mayor of NO took; Look at the Governor of LA. Just recently the President of the US was talking about using troops in such a situation.

We saw looting in NO the day after the flooding, would disruption of this magnitude (death of 10% of the population, at least temporary disability of 40% more) pass by more quietly?

I don't think that we need to PLAN for TEOTWAWKI just yet. But if the mutation that allowed easy human to human transmission did happen, would we have time then?

If the virus did mutate that way, once it got into this country, how would we stop it? We can't even stop thousands from contracting the flu when our infrastructure is functioning well. That is a thought that is worth looking in to... just how many people contracted the flu last year? If we assume that a mutated version of the avian flu was not any more contagious than the flu we suffer every year, we might have an idea for a ball park figure of how many deaths to expect (I'll stick with my 10% just to have a low end estimate, one should really do a high end estimate too)

Could our infrastructure handle that? I don't know.

One thing I do know is that if we don't look into it, we won't have any chance of being prepared. Dismissing investigation as hype won't do it. That said, I agree that because bad new sells, the media is over reporting this. But, of course, that isn't anything new.

 

[c_yeager]

Oh, by the way, most of the deaths are not from influenza, but from a secondary coinfection with bacteria (treatable).

You do realize that the vast majority of people who "die from A.I.D.S" die as a result of a "treatable" bacterial infection, right? By your logic getting AIDS isnt a very big deal since it doesnt kill you all by itself.

No question that it could be a problem, but the end of the world disaster that some in the media would have you believe? No. Do a google on the SARS issue and again you will see that the hype exceeded the actual problem.

Has it occured to you that noone you are arguing with has made a claim that this would be some kind of "end of the world disaster". Im struggling to find your actual point here.

 

[T. Bracker]

C,

I don't think anyone was saying end of the world, but there was some serious SHTF hype earlier. People talking of having to "bug out" etc. My point was that the media hypes many health related stories to make them sound much worse than they are, witness Ebola virus a few years ago. Recently all the hype surrounding West Nile virus. Over the last few years there have been a number of cases of West Nile, and some deaths but not the devastation that I had read about in the media when it first started. Look at the CDC site, they are not over-hyping the disease (influenza) at this point. It is correct to be concerned and to start to lay out plans, but my whole purpose in getting involved in this thread is to put a little reality to all the media hype.

Sorry but your AIDS comparison doesn't work, in that condition it is the immune system itself that is gone bad, and so any conventional treatment will only be marginally effective at best. Influenza is not a immune system depressant as its primary activity, so the person's immune system is grossly intact.

 

[Gabe]

Bird Flu Virus Resistant to Tamiflu


By MALCOLM RITTER, AP Science Writer
1 hour, 52 minutes ago



NEW YORK - Bird flu virus found in a Vietnamese girl was resistant to the main drug that's being stockpiled in case of a pandemic, a sign that it's important to keep a second drug on hand as well, a researcher said Friday.

He said the finding was no reason to panic.

The drug in question, Tamiflu, still attacks "the vast majority of the viruses out there," said Yoshihiro Kawaoka of the University of Tokyo and the University of Wisconsin-Madison. The drug, produced by Swiss-based Roche Holding AG, is in short supply as nations around the world try to stock up on it in case of a global flu pandemic.

Kawaoka said the case of resistant virus in the 14-year-old girl is "only one case, and whether that condition was something unique we don't know."

He also said it's not surprising to see some resistance to Tamiflu in treated individuals, because resistance has also been seen with human flu.

In lab tests, the girl's Tamiflu-resistant virus was susceptible to another drug, Relenza, which is made by GlaxoSmithKline.

Kawaoka and colleagues report the case in the Oct. 20 issue of the journal Nature, which released the study Friday. The researchers conclude that it might be useful to stockpile Relenza as well as Tamiflu.

There's no evidence that so-called H5N1 viruses — like the one recovered from the girl — are becoming generally resistant to the class of drugs that includes Tamiflu, the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday.

Both Tamiflu and Relenza are being stockpiled by the U.S. government. Doctors have good reason to believe Tamiflu would be effective at combatting a pandemic strain of bird flu, although it's not clear how long people would have to be treated or what doses they'd need, said Dr. John Treanor of the University of Rochester.

In adults with mild cases of ordinary flu, Tamiflu speeds up recovery by a day or two, he said. Its effect on severe flu like bird flu isn't clear, he said.

The new report, while not surprising, shows scientists must find out more about how people with bird flu respond to Tamiflu and how often they shed drug-resistant virus, he said.

The shed virus could become a problem if it is transmitted to other people, he said. He noted that in the new report, as in prior studies, the resistant virus was less able to reproduce itself than normal virus was, which might cut down on the chance of transmission.

The girl, who had been caring for an older brother with the disease, had been taking low doses of Tamiflu as a preventive measure when the virus was isolated in late February. She later got sick and was given higher doses. She recovered and left the hospital in March.

Kawaoka said it's not clear whether the low preventive dose had encouraged the emergence of drug resistance.

Dr. William Schaffner of Vanderbilt University called the report important and said it shows the importance of watching for drug resistance.

"It is not unusual to find the occasional resistant virus," he said. "It could be just a biological oddity, or we could see this more frequently.

"This is a blip on the radar screen, and it surely does mean that we have to keep the radar operative," Schaffner said. "We have to keep testing more viruses."

 

[Byron Quick]

No question that it could be a problem, but the end of the world disaster that some in the media would have you believe?

I don't think that it would be an end of the world disaster. I do think that a flu of the same magnitude of virulence as the Spanish flu could overwhelm our health care system, in turn leading to deaths that could have been prevented with proper care.

Do you think the infrastructure is there to handle even a large fraction of the numbers they're talking about? Forget the superflu. Just on the basis of the Spanish flu pandemic, do you think we've got the beds, the personnel, the equipment, and the medicines in stock to adequately treat the victims in a timely fashion?

 

[Sam]

There ain't no bird flu.
It's all a Trilateralist plot to make Dubya cooperate with the EU, the Rooshins and Chiner.
Don't let 'em sucker ya boys, it all a plot I tell ya.

Sam

 

[Tokugawa]

Dear T. Bracker- I would never presume to be a medical professional, but all reports regarding the 1918 pandemic indicated it was precisely the healthy 20 to 40 year olds who were inexplicably suffering the highest mortality, NOT the elderly or otherwise compromised population.
I also think that the essence of the problem is medical delivery- remember that the infected so far are in a hospital setting with good medical care,etc., and there is still a 50% death rate.
For some interesting reading on the 1918 flu, from a contemporary Doctors viewpoint, go to www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/ This has letters from an army Doc and other info from the time.