Caliber, bullet, "One shot stop", placement.... Stopping power

[CDW4ME]

If I set out 3 bullets, side by side, 9mm, 40, 45 and look at them, my brain tells me the 45 MUST work better since it's bigger.
I have typically chosen a 45 when pistols of equivalent size are being considered for carry: Glock 30, 23, 19.
If I couldn't have the pistol in 45, (XDsc) then I would carry the 40.

In the Stopping Power Book, the results of many shootings are rank ordered for caliber and load.
According to actual results, the 9mm in +P and +P+ loadings is roughly as effective as the 40 or 45.
In their best loadings all three have proven to deliver a "one shot stop" about 9 times out of 10 (90%).
A certain bullet might be effective 9.4 times out of 10 (94%), but generally the data supports the notion that bullet selection is fairly important and there isn't a lot of practical difference between the best ones in 9, 40 and 45.
However, if you load your 9mm with 147 gr. HP then it has proven to deliver a "one shot stop" about 7 times out of 10.
Some of the bullets have been used in 100 or more shootings, which makes the results seem convincing.

I know they counted any hit in the thorax and some would certainly be better than others, guts versus sternum; but the sheer numbers of shootings for some of the loads (100 +) should include the good & bad for each, making the average effectiveness represenative.

According to these actual results, it wouldn't really matter if I carried a Glock subcompact 26, 27, or 33 (all are the same size for comparison sake) or Glock 30, 23, 19 (same comparative size). I should shoot each and select the one that has the best combination of accuracy and control, since the actual effectiveness is roughly the same.

Thoughts?

(Don't tell me to use the search feature or that this has already been beaten to death)

 

[duns]

The "Stopping Power" books have been widely criticized with allegations made that the statistics were made up. Personally, I don't believe it. I think it was a pretty well designed and implemented series of studies and AFAIK the only extensive source of data on stopping power based on real gunfights.

The main alternative way of assessment as I recall is based on gelatine testing and some sort of scoring system that measures the effectiveness of a shot in terms of whatever factors were considered important (depending on the scoring system, these factors might include penetration, permanent cavity volume, temporary cavity volume, etc.). Seems to me those scoring systems are somewhat idealized and may not reflect additional factors that might come into play on the street.

I can fully believe that a hot 9mm JHP is about as effective as a 40 or 45 JHP. I seem to recall that the best 9mm round was the Corbon +P 115gr JHP. If this was the same round at the time of the Stopping Power surveys as the currently available round, it has a muzzle energy of 465 ft lbf, which compares with 461 ft lbf for (say) a Hornady 230 gr +P 45 ACP. The 9mm may make a smaller hole but its higher velocity may compensate for that. Also, if the 9mm is easier to shoot accurately, that may have helped its on-street performance.

 

[philip964]

In a recent movie "Surrogate" Bruce Willis is faced with a situation of trying to save the whole world, being unarmed, but looking down the barrel of what looks like a .22 or .25 mouse gun held by a much older man than Bruce. To me it didn't look like much a threat. Change out the gun to a 1911 and the world's odds look much worse even without Bruce or me reading the stopping power book.

 

[lions]

If I set out 3 bullets, side by side, 9mm, 40, 45 and look at them, my brain tells me the 45 MUST work better since it's bigger.

That's like asking if you want to get run over with an F-150, F-250, or F-350. Does it really matter?

I should shoot each and select the one that has the best combination of accuracy and control...

I think you found the best answer.

 

[Hatterasguy]

I think putting any of those rounds on target will yeild pretty good results.

Personaly I would want to get shot with any of them.

 

[RonBernert]

Always an interesting topic.

I've been involved in a justifiable homicide. I carried a .38 S&W MOD. 442 on me, and a Para Ordinance P14-45 in a cigar box under the counter. We had a robber come in, brandishing a Taurus 6 shot revolver. His revolver was malfunctioning so it only ended up firing twice. He was shot 7 times with a .45ACP before it incapacitated him. These were not shots fired in rapid succession, either. They were shots fired slowly and with aim, not "cover fire".. 5 of the 7 were considered center mass and he JUST KEPT COMING!!
So.. the whole thing people kept telling me about "hit 'em in the elbow with a .45 and that'll kill 'em dead!" is crap. There is no magic round, the 9mm is as effective as the .45 in EVERY situation, and most of what you hear people get on thier soap boxes about is ballistic mumbo-jumbo. Real world is completely different than what it looks like on paper.
This is honest, real information from someone who has been in a real situation.
What do I carry now? I still carry the same 442, recently bought a 642 that can handle +p that I am "warming up" to.. I'll also carry a KelTec P3AT in my cargo shorts when concealment is key. Whenever I can pull it off, I carry a Ruger Security Six in .357.

 

[DeepSouth]

http://www.chuckhawks.com/handgun_power_chart.htm

 

[Mad Magyar]

Hell, even Massad Ayoob will tell you: "Bigger is Better"; especially in light that the holder is less efficient than the pistol or ammo he's using: you know, slightly off target......
Why do LEO's miss more often while firing at the BG's. Take a close look at the F.B.I. Uniform Crime Data for NYC? The point being when "all hell breaks loose"; don't depend on accuracy as if you're on the range. Personally, I don't need to read Evan Marshall's and countless others to know I want a bigger-heavier bullet...

 

[pv18463]

Here are some articles written about the "Stopping Power" books.

http://www.firearmstactical.com/marshall-sanow-discrepancies.htm
http://www.firearmstactical.com/streetstoppers.htm

 

[Ratdog68]

I buried two cousins within a year. One was shot with the muzzle of a Security Six .22mag pressed up against her forehead by her "ex" while she was at work. She died where she stood as she was trying to dial 911. The other one was accused of cheating at a board game (by a roomate who was "under the influence") and was shot from across the room of a small house with a .30-06 through the side of his torso, taking out the bottom of both lungs and his heart. While running half a block down the alley to get away, took one more round in the back from the same rifle. He died in the arms of a passerby that listened to his last words. A second victim in that shooting sustained a round (same gun/shooter) to the neck and survived.

My point? The placement of the much smaller bullet, with far less power "did the intended job" far quicker than did the much bigger bullet from a much more powerful round. Shot placement... central nervous system. Both of them perceived the immediate threat... one was dialing 911, the other one was trying to flee, neither one were armed/capable of defending themselves from their attackers.

I prefer to carry a .45 of the 1911 variety... but, have others that will protect my sorry old hide just fine... provided I do my part in that critical moment.

 

[Manco]

I think that there is only a small difference between the relative effectiveness of these calibers per round, and it varies by the individual loads, as well. If one particular load penetrates more deeply and creates a wider permanent wound channel than another, then it must make some difference, but I suspect it is not that significant. Real-world comparisons are difficult at best because there are many factors that cannot be controlled, and even purely statistical comparisons are based on anecdotal data and are therefore compromised by subjective factors. Purely theoretical comparisons will typically yield just a few percentage points of greater effectiveness for larger, more powerful calibers, I think, all else (e.g. type of bullet used) being equal. That said, sometimes a few percentage points can mean a lot, as having a 90% success rate means that you're twice as likely to fail as if you had a 95% success rate. In the end, it's all about your level of comfort and confidence, and I'd like to reiterate that ammo selection between these calibers mostly depends on the specific load. I went with .40 S&W for home defense because most of the loads that met my terminal ballistics requirements were in that caliber (about as powerful as .45 ACP but with better potential for penetration), capacity was not an issue as I'm limited to ten-round magazines anyway, and the cost isn't much more than 9mm where I live. Others will have their own valid reasons for choosing a different caliber and/or load for their needs.

If I set out 3 bullets, side by side, 9mm, 40, 45 and look at them, my brain tells me the 45 MUST work better since it's bigger.

What does your brain (or your eyes, anyway) tell you about 9mm versus .38 Special?

In the Stopping Power Book, the results of many shootings are rank ordered for caliber and load.

These findings, albeit based on actual shootings, have always seemed suspect to me. They're also outdated since a whole new "generation" of JHP bullet designs has been developed.

However, if you load your 9mm with 147 gr. HP then it has proven to deliver a "one shot stop" about 7 times out of 10.

The performance of heavy 9mm bullets is much improved now, and some loads may be preferable to those with lighter bullets.

I know they counted any hit in the thorax and some would certainly be better than others, guts versus sternum; but the sheer numbers of shootings for some of the loads (100 +) should include the good & bad for each, making the average effectiveness represenative.

It's not that many in the context of statistical analysis. It's a pretty small sample size considering all of the variables involved, in my opinion.

According to these actual results, it wouldn't really matter if I carried a Glock subcompact 26, 27, or 33 (all are the same size for comparison sake) or Glock 30, 23, 19 (same comparative size). I should shoot each and select the one that has the best combination of accuracy and control, since the actual effectiveness is roughly the same.

Thoughts?

It doesn't matter much but it matters a little bit, as long as you use the best available defensive loads, anyway.

 

[CDW4ME]

Here are some articles written about the "Stopping Power" books.

http://www.firearmstactical.com/marshall-sanow-discrepancies.htm
http://www.firearmstactical.com/streetstoppers.htm

pv18463 : I had not see the information presented by firearmstactical before, interesting.

I aslo have the Street Stoppers book with the goat shootings. One thing I noticed was, the goats typically took about 9 seconds to fall to a typical JHP from a 9, 40 or 45 (excluding the exotic prefragmented loads). Of course, there were differences between the loads, but majority were within 1 second of each other.

I believe the average person supposedly has about 10 seconds worth of oxygen in their brain for voluntary movement unless the CNS is hit. This notion is supported by my hunting experience. I've shot several deer through both lungs with broadheads that made a 1'' plus diameter cut and an exit hole, they still ran 60-70 yards after the lethal hit; they were dead and on the ground within 10 seconds, but still capable of considerable "voluntary action".

I know bullets & broadheads work by different mechanisms, one is cutting, but the approximate 9 second time obtained with various handgun loads on goats is very similar to the elapsed time with a 1''+ broadhead on deer.

Makes me think the results from the goat test are credible.

If a handgun bullet took nearly 10 seconds to "incapicate" a person, whether it was a 9 or a 45, would caliber matter once at the 9mm diameter with about 400# KE?

I don't know the answer, that's why I'm asking.

 

[JoeSlomo]

I should shoot each and select the one that has the best combination of accuracy and control, since the actual effectiveness is roughly the same....


I would agree with that approach 100%.

Defensive handgun stopping power pretty much sucks...period. Some suck more than others. For every caliber that has a "one shot stop" story, there is also a "shot multiple times and kept going" story for that very same caliber.

A single well placed shot, or a controlled pair / double tap would be nice, however, it is the shot string of 3 or more rounds that is usually needed to stop a threat with pretty much any defensive handgun.

Shoot what is comfortable, and what you can shoot accurately with the fastest.

 

[Haifisch]

I'll stick with the Mighty 10mm.

 

[NMGonzo]

Or .45 super!

 

[Ratdog68]

Today's projectiles are far different/better than yesteryears' offerings... their ability to cut a big wound channel for blood pressure drop/fluid loss is key to a non central nervous system shot placement... thus dieing from shock becomes a key factor in lethality.

Another factor is the amount of blunt force trauma imparted on the body. If you can get the projectile to not "pass through"... the entire force of the bullet's energy is absorbed by the target.

Finding a balance between controlling overpenetration (loss of "stopping power"), and creating a massive wound channel, as well as shot placement... that would be more important (to my thinking) than caliber selection for a handgun.

 

[mec]

The morgue monsters and jello junkies have done such a good job of repudiating each other that everybody is now free to make up their own theory of stopping power. alternative is Faith* .

*Faith. Why Faith is believing something that every reasonable person knows perfectly well ain't so.
Mark Twain

 

[gunnie]

one shot stop = mythology...

almost ANY caliber, handgun-rifle-shotgun, will have documented evidence of failing dramaticly with a well placed shot.

WAY TOO MANY VARIABLES TO LIST IN SOMETHING SHORT OF A BOOK!

get a weapon that YOU can shoot accurately. practice until completely familiar with it and reloading quickly.

pull the trigger until the threat is stopped. if the weapon is emptied, reload and repeat to point desired results are obtained......

gunnie

 

[KM]

I can't take this argument anymore...

But I will say that if anybody trains and expects one stop shots, aside from being the most ridiculous marksman ever that can get head shot results from any angle and situation, then I feel sorry for you...

 

[duns]

Here are some articles written about the "Stopping Power" books.

http://www.firearmstactical.com/marshall-sanow-discrepancies.htm
http://www.firearmstactical.com/streetstoppers.htm

Those are two of the many articles that claimed Marshall and Sanow made up their statistics. The criticisms were grossly exaggerated and full of ad hominem attacks repeated ad nauseum.

For a scientific review of the criticisms made of Marshall and Sanow's work, see http://arxiv.org/ftp/physics/papers/0701/0701268.pdf. This paper concludes that the original work by Marshall and Sanow was more sound than the published criticisms of it. I quote part of the conclusions:

In light of the demonstrated ad hominem attacks, exaggerations and fallacies in the criticisms of these experimental findings, one wonders whether the critical authors were depending more on their reputation as experts and the quantity of their fallacies (ad nauseum fallacy) rather than quality arguments, sound reasoning, and repeatable experiments. The critical authors left quite a paper trail in the literature, but reason, the scientific method, and repeatable experiments and analysis have shown the original works to be more sound than the published criticisms.

 

[agtman]

"If I set out 3 bullets, side by side, 9mm, 40, 45 and look at them, my brain tells me the 45 MUST work better since it's bigger. ***"

Okay, ...

... we'll assume you had an inadvertent "senior moment," 'cause you forgot one - the one that so easily eclipses those you listed:

 

[Haifisch]

Okay, ...

... we'll assume you had an inadvertent "senior moment," 'cause you forgot one - the one that so easily eclipses those you listed:

Amen Brother !!

 

[shockwave]

The laws of physics are helpful here, inasmuch as we can say that a BB fired at 400 fps will carry more destructive power than a brick at 10. The collective sense of owners, as captured by reports and surveys, is that .38 spl or 9mm represent the lower end and .45 and .357 the upper of a standard CCW round. Go lower and stopping power requires precise placement with no room for error, and higher leads to rounds that are difficult to control and weapons too large to comfortably conceal.

Outliers abound, with many reports of smaller and larger calibers proving successful. The calculus is dynamic because smaller rounds allow for better concealment or more rounds carried, larger rounds have more force but less capacity onboard. I've found it easy to put all 6 or 7 .357s in a tight group, but can't manage that with a .45. For me, a .357 is comfortable, whereas the .45 is just too much gun. Others handle the .45 with aplomb. So...

I should shoot each and select the one that has the best combination of accuracy and control, since the actual effectiveness is roughly the same....

That's about all you can say.

 

[Evil Monkey]

There's no such thing as "stopping power" and other non sense.

It's only the energy the bullet generates and what that bullet can do with that energy. If you have a bullet with 500ft-lbs of energy but is shaped like a football, it's not going to be very lethal. But if was a soft point, it would be devestating, because it's making the most use of the energy and cause more bleeding, which in turn produces incapacitation.


Many loads in 40sw have more energy than 45acp, but both behave similarly in FBI protocol ballistics gelatin. I believe there are some 5.7mm loads more powerful, energy-wise, than hollow point 9mm loads, but the 9mm consistently displaces more tissue in ballistics gelatin than 5.7mm self defense loads. Goes to show how wild ballistics can be.

All else being equal, size does matter. Since nothing is really equal between most major self defense rounds, size doesn't matter as much. As long as a bullet has the energy to make effective use of a hollow point, it's good. 9mm, 40, 45, all practically the same.

"one shot stops" are usually a result of the victim lacking the will to fight and have been conditioned to "fall like in the movies" when shot.

It's also my understanding that the same "one shot stop" victims usually are more likely to survive because of faster medical attention.

 

[1911Tuner]

Since any conventional handgun is a pretty innefectual thing...that is, handguns designed to be carried for the purposes of personal defense rather than some of the behemoths that are intended to take Cape Buffalo and such...it would be unwise to rely on abstract things like energy or velocity or striking energy or tissue disruption or expanded diameters...which may not even happen...to stop an attack.

Placement and penetration.