Component Prices vs Ammo Prices

[slowr1der]

I started shooting quite a bit about 10 years ago. Before Obama got elected the first time and ammo prices on most everything other than 22 ammo are at lower prices than they were back then. Not including rebates that make some ammo extremely cheap these days. Since factory ammo has come down in price significantly and seems to be getting lower every day I would have expected the same trend with reloading components, but that just doesn't seem to be the case.

While components are down from the crazy panic prices, they still seem quite a bit higher than I was paying before the panic. Much less 10 years ago. Primers are pretty cheap again, as is brass, but bullets and powder are about 20-30% higher than I was paying pre panic. Even trying to buy in large quantities. Does it seem odd to anyone else that factory ammo has come down in price so much while reloading components don't see to have followed the same trend? Or maybe it's just the brands that I've been using. Do you all think now is the time to stock up, or is it better to wait. I'm starting to get lower than I'd like on a few things, but I probably have enough to last another year or so. I'm debating if I need to start replenishing my stock, or if I should hold out for a while.

 

[higgite]

Does it seem odd to anyone else that factory ammo has come down in price so much while reloading components don't see to have followed the same trend?

Supply and demand.

Do you all think now is the time to stock up, or is it better to wait. I'm starting to get lower than I'd like on a few things....

Sounds like you answered your own question.

 

[Hokie_PhD]

slow1der,
It does appear that the price drop of components is more of a gradual decline than a fast drop.

I'm sure you know this but you have a few choices.

One , make a big investment in components now. If something were to happen and a panic we're to occur tomorrow, you'd look like a genus as you'd have bought at the lowest prices.

Two, wait for prices to drop more. If they do, you win and look smart. If something happens you don't and miss out on the lower prices.

Three, you buy some components now and hold off until prices drop more. This way you have some components at the cheaper price if something happens, but you've paid more than the future prices if they continue to drop.

Four, you use a technique in investing called "dollar cost averaging". In it you take a certain amount at regular intervals say each week, each month or each quarter and but a certain dollar amount of components. Again your not paying the absolute lowest price but you're buying at lower and lower prices until the market hits bottom.

Five buy randomly.

There are other options but these are the main ones I can think of right now as their the most common.

In other words if you think about this, all you're doing here is switching reloading components as an investment vs stocks. You might not be looking at your components as an investment but they are in a way. Unlike the stock market that's currently rising pretty fast, the component market is going down slowly.
Investment advisors say not to time the market. But most people don't listen as we tend to be emotional creatures and we can't predict events. It's why dollar cost averaging is a good option for most people as it takes the emotion out and makes this a mechanical exercise.

 

[someguy2800]

I think they will start to come down soon. Reloaders tend to make purchases for the long term and I think there is still a slight demand in the market over what's being consumed because people are still stocking up on stuff they haven't been able to get for a long time. Once people get back to a comfortable stock of components I think the demand will go down and retailers will respond with better pricing. Online retailers will come down first since they turn over product faster than the local retailers tend to sit on product for a long time.

 

[WVsig]

I am a big fan of dollar cost averaging both loaded ammo and reloading components. This takes the emotional irrational part out of the discussion. I try to buy smaller amounts in this manner. This keeps me stocked at a "par" level at all times.

Then I also take advantage of great one time deals. For example when Cabelas was selling S&B primers for $15 I bought as many as I could locally and online. In the past few months I have bought a 4,000 rounds of 556 from Natchez for $239-$250 per 1000 after using the mail in rebate which i maxed out. I also picked up 1000 rounds of 9mm at $.13 a piece delivered.

I think that the soft gun market in general is driving the loaded ammo prices down. Across the board the market is soft. Reloading is a much smaller part of the shooting market and even though there have been shortages those shortages were effecting a smaller part of the market and were created because of the incredible demand on the loaded ammo side not necessarily the reloading side alone.

Volume and production forecast are what are driving loaded ammo lower. They need to move the metal. They are making millions of rounds everyday and sending them into the distribution chain so they need to push out the existing inventory. This is also why there are so many rebates on guns right now as well.

Also if you look at even the really low prices on loaded ammo it is about the same as the 20%-30% over what you used to pay for reloading components. 10 years ago you could walk into any Walmart in the country and buy WWB 9mm for $8.99 to $9.99 for 100 rounds. Now $.13 is a good deal. Don't forget to account for inflation when comparing todays prices to say 10 years ago.

When the shooting community or any buying market shows a tolerance for higher pricing like we did during the ammo and reloading components shortages of the past why would a seller ever go back to the pricing of the good old days. They will lower is to the point where it moves again but it will not go as low as it once was unless the market simply stops. Which had not happened yet.....

So to answer the question buy early and buy often. Buy all the time and take advantage of the big sales and deals but don't drive yourself crazy trying to time the perfect buy.

 

[salpal48]

More and More People are not Reloading. The Only ammo That is Cheap are the calibers people shoot. 40,s&w, 9mm, 223. . That is basically the only ammo Non reloader buy.
If you shoot anything else . 270 w, 243, 45/70 50/70 You will pay more depending on the place.
Component have no relationship to loader ammo

 

[WVsig]

More and More People are not Reloading. The Only ammo That is Cheap are the calibers people shoot. 40,s&w, 9mm, 223. . That is basically the only ammo Non reloader buy.
If you shoot anything else . 270 w, 243, 45/70 50/70 You will pay more depending on the place.
Component have no relationship to loader ammo

I am not sure that is an accurate statement. 22lr, 380 auto, 38 spl, 762 X 39 and 357 are all still very popular but the general point is for the most part accurate. I disagree that components have no relationship to loaded ammo. Look at who makes the components. CCI, Winchester, Remington, S&B, Federal etc... The same goes for powder. If a company like Federal has a choice to sell primers for price X but the profit to move those primers into the loaded ammo market is higher they will move that production capacity to the higher margin product. This as much as panic buying of components is what created the last shortage IMHO.

 

[otisrush]

I haven't gathered hard data, but anecdotally it seems to me that:
* Inventories (store shelves) have DEFINITELY increased for loaded ammo. Step back and look at a Walmart ammo cabinet: There are virtually no "out of stock" spaces on the shelves. (Except .22.)
* Inventories of components, in general, have increased.
* I have not seen prices come down on bullets or primers.
* I have noticed a little bit of a price drop on powder.

I think we are definitely in a "this is the time to stock up" phase. I'm kind of concluding if I think it might be a good time to stock up - then it is. Because I know when there is a shortage there is NO QUESTION there is a shortage.

OR

 

[Toprudder]

The nice thing about online powder purchases now, as opposed to a couple of years ago, is that a lot of the powders are in stock. That makes it easier to mix multiple powders in one order so that the hazmat fee is easier to deal with. If I want to buy a powder I have not used before, I certainly don't want to buy more than one pound of it initially.

But, in my case, there is a gun show in town every couple of months, and there are a couple of vendors there that have decent prices and between the two of them they have had most everything in stock. I buy all my hazmat stuff at the gun shows now.

 

[hdwhit]

slow1der wrote:
Does it seem odd to anyone else that factory ammo has come down in price so much while reloading components don't see to have followed the same trend?

No.

While components are assembled to make ammunition and both handloaded and factory ammunition are used for the same purpose, factory ammunition and reloading components are two separate and distinct markets. As a result, they are influenced by different factors (there is, of course, some overlap of those factors with the ammunition market) and thus follow different trends.

 

[Jack B.]

I have one gun I don't reload for and when I buy factory ammo for it and shoot it, afterwards I feel like I'm wasting something. I tend not to shoot it very often. When I go to the range and see all the brass that people leave laying on the ground. Just seems like a waste.

 

[egd]

Granted, I don't go searching for it, but I sure don't see 9mm ammo for 13 cents anywhere. That's what I reload it for using fmj bullets. I have seen it for 18-19c per round, but then there was shipping involved.

 

[Hokie_PhD]

I was just in a Walmart in central Va and saw 9mm for 13 cents a round. It's the first time I've seen it this low.

 

[hdwhit]

WVsig wrote:
If a company like Federal has a choice to sell primers for price X but the profit to move those primers into the loaded ammo market is higher they will move that production capacity to the higher margin product

It's not simply a question of chasing margins.

Move all your primers to the ammunition line so that they disappear entirely from the reloading shelves and desperate reloaders will switch to something else and your market share will decline - and you may never get it back. That's how CCI lost me as a customer during one of the 1980's component droughts.

I started using CCI primers because they were all that I could get when I first started reloading. But then I got familiar with them, learned to trust them and when other brands became available, I continued to "dance with the girl that brought me" - even when other brands of primers cost less. That was until CCI became unobtainable and what I could get was Winchester. Now all of my loads have been developed with or transitioned to Winchester primers and even though other brands are now available, I continue to buy Winchester primers - even when other brands cost less - because I am familiar with and trust them.

 

[Jack B.]

I was just in a Walmart in central Va and saw 9mm for 13 cents a round. It's the first time I've seen it this low.

Seen them as low as 9 cents a round If you are willing to buy them in bulk.

 

[Hokie_PhD]

Seen them as low as 9 cents a round If you are willing to buy them in bulk.

I reload. So I haven't used much factory ammo in awhile.

I was just killing a little time after picking up something I forgot on this business trip. So went by the gun section when I was done. Remembering the thread I started looking at prices and running a few calculations.

 

[higgite]

I was just in a Walmart in central Va and saw 9mm for 13 cents a round. It's the first time I've seen it this low.

What brand? Brass cases? FMJ?

Seen them as low as 9 cents a round If you are willing to buy them in bulk.

What brand? Brass cases? FMJ? Bulk source?

 

[Hokie_PhD]

Winchester White box 150 rounds.

 

[peterk1234]

Been reloading for about nine months. Being in the state of Massachusetts, it is so worth it. Plus IT IS SO MUCH FUN

I can't keep inventory in stock right now because I am loading for three of us. Most 9mm and 38 special. We have a pin shoot on Sunday and it looks like all three of us will be doing it (me, wife and youngest daughter). I will be bring 500 round of ammo just in case. Cost.... about 65 bucks. If I had to buy it here..... about 120 bucks.

Buying 38 special or 357 mag here in Mass.... forget about it. Probably $55 per 100. Heck I just tested a new load today; 50 rounds fired off for about $6.50. And have I told you guys I really enjoy reloading?

Now that I am finally figuring things out I can start to build inventory and buy larger quantities of primers, powders and bullets. I am picking up range brass as fast as possible.


Pete

 

[brewer12345]

I just bought all the stuff for casting, so for 38 which is by far most of what I shoot bullets will be really cheap. I am surprised powder still costs so much. I am waiting for it to drop so I can buy a couple kegs. That will keep me set for at least a few years.

 

[higgite]

Winchester White box 150 rounds.

Interesting. I've never seen 9mm WWB in 150 round boxes. But I have seen 150 round boxes of Winchester "USA Forged”, which is steel cased. And cheap.

 

[Hokie_PhD]

Interesting. I've never seen 9mm WWB in 150 round boxes. But I have seen 150 round boxes of Winchester "USA Forged”, which is steel cased. And cheap.

I didn't look really close. If I was buying I would have as I don't buy steel cases.

 

[WVsig]

Interesting. I've never seen 9mm WWB in 150 round boxes. But I have seen 150 round boxes of Winchester "USA Forged”, which is steel cased. And cheap.

At .09 it would have to be the steel line but even if it is steel that is a good price. $22 is as low as I have seen the 150 round box but I don't go to Walmart very often.

 

[WVsig]

It's not simply a question of chasing margins.

Move all your primers to the ammunition line so that they disappear entirely from the reloading shelves and desperate reloaders will switch to something else and your market share will decline - and you may never get it back. That's how CCI lost me as a customer during one of the 1980's component droughts.

I started using CCI primers because they were all that I could get when I first started reloading. But then I got familiar with them, learned to trust them and when other brands became available, I continued to "dance with the girl that brought me" - even when other brands of primers cost less. That was until CCI became unobtainable and what I could get was Winchester. Now all of my loads have been developed with or transitioned to Winchester primers and even though other brands are now available, I continue to buy Winchester primers - even when other brands cost less - because I am familiar with and trust them.

I can understand that but to be honest I bet they made more $$$ then moving that production vs the $$$ they would have made on you for the rest of your life. Just saying. It would be nice if the bottom line did not drive the company but it does.

There have been times people were buying anything and everything on the shelves. The ammo manufacturers are going to follow the $$$.

I would be willing to bet that all the primers I will use to reload for my entire life won't be as much as CCI might run on a single line running 9mm ammo in a day.

 

[AR-Bossman]

It's only been 10 months since people thought it was the end of the world.
The shelves are filling up.. and up.. and up. Which means at some point there will be a correction assuming there is room for a correction. It "may" be possible the component companies just can't make it much cheaper. I don't know.