Could the Anti's be Correct?

[Dick1911]

Or at least half right? I pulled some stats from Disaster Center and I was looking at the rate of violent crime here in The Old North State (North Carolina for those of you without tar on your heels) and comparing that to the rate in the non right to carry or discresionary issue states. I was shocked!

NC is currently in the middle of the pack for violent crime! Some of those Yankee States we love so much down here like NJ and NY ("Well back home we always did it this way...") are currently reporting violent crimes rates below ours! Apparently the ability to carry here in NC isn't reducing the crime rates much. The stats are the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting numbers so are "supposed" to be consistent. Is everyone cooking the books on these numbers?

The crime rates did drop in NC after we implemented the conceal carry law, but it also dropped in all those states that didn't. When I looked at the total crime rate NC was the next to highest and has been for several years. Only HI was higher in the recent years...

I've attached the graph of violent crime, although it's hard to pick out specific states, I made NC bold so it's easy to see we're sitting right in the middle of the pack. How are you other CC states faring against the non-carry states?

I did leave DC out of the graph, they are so high you couldn't differentiate the others - at least I can say we're better than DC!

 

[bensdad]

Hmm. Interesting thought. Too bad that violent crime rates have nothing whatsoever to do with my constitutional rights.

Look at whatever data you like, find any facts you'd like to share, then, when you understand that I have a right to protect myself and my family, get back to me.

 

[takhtakaal]

Richard, so long as a man armed with a knife can easily kill me at a running start from 21 feet away, and so long as competent enterprise can construct arms, ammunition, and the means to conceal same, I will maintain the right of the law-abiding man to defend himself with powder actuated weapons.

No ifs, ands, or buts.

 

[TexasRifleman]

So your violent crime rate is down 1/3 from the early 90's, that's what that graph tells me.

The uptick right at the end is too small, and for too short a time, to show any kind of trending.

And of course those statistics are only good through 06 anyway, so you are missing more data.
The UCS also includes all manner of domestic violence and defensive firearms rarely matter in those cases.
You will also note that those statistics include VEHICLE THEFT, another one that has absolutely nothing to do with defensive firearm use.
Auto theft nationwide is on the rise in a big way.
You didn't mention which section you pulled these numbers from so it's hard to tell. Did you do the county by county violent crime search?

Raw data doesn't tell you much, it's too wide coverage.


If you want to see the statistics, sorted through properly, with population etc taken into account, John Lott has published much on the subject.

 

[Vermont]

There are anecdotal examples for both sides of the argument. Vermont has some of the lowest violent crime rates in the union, and we also have very few restrictive gun laws.


I think what these anecdotes prove is that there are far more important factors to violent crime rates than gun laws. I don't think you can use these examples to prove that either side is right.

 

[qwert65]

it's per captia-whats the pop. in nc compared to nj?

 

[rocinante]

There are just too many variables to do apple to apple comparisons between states. To me the only crimes to look at would be public armed robbery and home invasion and even then drugs and poverty and gang macho are not distributed equally.

I agree it is a constitutional right and talk about crime control is just a side show.

 

[Old Fuff]

Your chart doesn't reflect on crimes prevented, just crimes commited. It also doesn't show what amount of the crimes were commited by those with concealed weapons permits.

The fact of the matter is that very few crimes are commited by license holders, and very few have to actually fire a shot when they discouraged or prevented a criminal act.

 

[Pat-inCO]

What about Kennesaw Georgia? There is a city ordinance there that requires everyone to have a gun. Crime rate dropped, no murders in Kennesaw since.

That covers twenty five YEARS. Hummmm.

Statistical anomalies are not worth worrying about.

 

[MachIVshooter]

Barely enough time has passed since so many states went shall issue to draw any conclusions regarding CCW/violent crime rate correlation. Do remember that just because people can get permits doesn't mean they will. Even in my VERY pro-gun county, the percentage of the population that are CCW permit holders is quite low. The number of those folks that actually carry on a regular basis is even lower.

Unless we get a large portion of the population to actively carry, it is unlikely that we will see CCW having a definitive impact on crime rates.

One can safely say at this point that concealed carry has really had no impact on crime rates. To that same end, since it also has not increased violent crime, there is no reason that we should lose CCW rights. In fact, the only data regarding CCW/crime correlation that is useful is that CCW holders as a group tend to be much more law abiding than the general population.

 

[mike101]

disaster-center is a good site

Over all, crime is up 313% (per 100,000 inhabitants) according to those same stats, from 1960-2006. I can't help but think that 40 years of gun control isn't at least partially responsible for that increase. It can't be a coincidence.

I remember what life was like before the Gun Control Act of '68. It was a lot safer then. You never heard about home-invasions, and people did not mow eahother down in the streets.

Does anyone else remember that?

 

[Patrick_Henry]

Three Types of Lie

1. Lies
2. Darned Lies
3. Statistics

As useful as they can be stats can do all kinds of interesting things and are very very fallible, even when they are done with effort at accuracy... Logic triumphs over stats every time and logic says guns work...

 

[WayneConrad]

Crime statistics are a distraction.

The right to keep and bear arms isn't about crime. Criminals are responsible for only a tiny fraction of the unjust deaths that occur. Most of them are due to governments. It's far more likely that someone else's government will try to kill you, or yours will, than it is that you will be murdered by a criminal. That's a fact.

If someone tells you that you can give up your gun because crime is down, they are engaging in slight of hand.

 

[Wineoceros]

Drawing conclusions based on a comparison between such limited data points is an exercise in futility.

About a month ago I actually entered the FBI's violent crime statistics as well as the Brady Center's own scores for all 50 U.S. states as well as D.C. into an Excel spreadsheet to try to find some relationship(s) between the two sets of data, and found pretty much no correlation between them.

 

[Feud]

The crime rates did drop in NC after we implemented the conceal carry law, but it also dropped in all those states that didn't.

That's a perfectly acceptable statistic in my book. I don't buy into the idea that guns prevent crimes, but I do buy into the idea that they allow the innocent to fight back.

While allowing concealed carry didn't drop your crime rate, the more important issue is that it didn't raise it. Many antis like to say that more guns equal more violence, and those statistics prove otherwise. You folks allowed for more guns, it didn't raise your crime rate, and it allowed people to defend themselves.

 

[Wolfgang2000]

I'm willing to bet those are rigged reports.

Every official stats I've ever seen showed that "shall issue" states have lower crimes rates than those with stricter gun control laws.

I would look very closely at where these stats are coming from, and who is compiling them.

 

[Soybomb]

Guns are objects, they do not cause crime or prevent crime (on the whole that is). People don't turn into robbers and rapists because they have a gun, they do it for much deeper reasons. A robber or rapist doesn't stop robbing or raping because there's a 1 in 200 chance he is going to run into someone with a gun. Everyone, on both sides, needs to learn to quit looking at such a superficial thing as guns as having any link to crime. If you really want to look for criminal motivations you need to be looking at socio-economic factors like income levels, unemployment rates, education levels, family situations, the upbringing of people, etc. Examine why people feel like they need to turn to crime and why they feel like its okay to do so, not the tool they use.

 

[Griff]

I suppose that if some congress-critter wanted to justify treating me, in Harnett county, the way we wish the gang-bangers in Charlotte would be, then those statistics might come in handy. Rubbish.

Thanks for the update on the enemy's playbook, though. Good to know they're up to the same old tricks.

Take care

 

[mewachee]

Guns don't equal violent crime, cultural personality does.

Violent crime is more the result of the populations living environment, politics and number of people per square mile.

We had some friends over last night, and the wife expressed her concern about her husbands CCW and his 40. That concern comes from ignorance and the lack of guns in her home growing up. He was out of state for the last week, and she admitted that she does not sleep when he is gone, because she doesn't feel as safe as when he is home. I asked her, "Would you have felt better if you knew how to handle his pistol?" She answer "Yes." I know this is off subject, but it shows that gun perception is more a factor of use and comfort.

My wife had the same concerns. She didn't like it when I brought hunting rifle in our home, but for my last birthday she bought me a 454 Alaskan. Now she wants her first conceal carry.

In Idaho, we have a large gun culture. However, ours is among the least violent in the country.

Guns don't equal violent crime, cultural personality does.

 

[tinygnat219]

First thing I'd say about NC concealed Carry law is that it sucks.

You can't carry in places that serve alcohol, if there is a "no guns" allowed sign punishment is harsh, you can't carry on universities or college campuses, you can't carry in local or state institutions, you can't carry in places where there are demonstrations or large gatherings, and the kicker: you can't carry in places that charge admission: goodbye movies.

THAT might have something to do with it.

Another thing to ask is how NY and NJ are reporting their violent crime?

The last thing to remember: There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

 

[MarcusWendt]

There are so many variables and guns would figure in as a very small part of those variables.

Illegal immigration, economy, LE budgets, among so many other things.

I would hazard a guess that NY as a whole is greatly affected by what goes on in NYC. After 9/11 NYC saw an unpresidented LE presence, funding, and scrutiny. I suspect that might have affected crime in NYC greatly and thus the state as a whole. Just speculating.

 

[deanf]

Who cares? Stats have got nothing to do with my gun or my right to own it or my right to self-defense.

 

[serrano]

Violent crime has nothing to do with the availability of weapons.

 

[MachIVshooter]

That's a perfectly acceptable statistic in my book. I don't buy into the idea that guns prevent crimes, but I do buy into the idea that they allow the innocent to fight back.

Oh, they most certainly do when they are held by responsible citizens and the criminals know it. I made an example of my county before, and I will use it again:

Where I'm at, there are between 3 and 5 county sheriff's deputies on patrol at a given time for 1860 square miles. In a small (but wealthy) town about 15 miles out of the county I live in there is a police force that has roughly 20 officers on duty at a time to patrol less than 50 square miles. I feel like I've got pretty good odds of running over the speed limit and not getting a ticket in my county, but I don't dare speed in that smallish town. It's simply numbers; higher concentration of police mean I'm much more likely to get popped for speeding if I choose to speed.

It's no different when we're talking about CCW having an impact on crime. Criminals know that there are armed citizens in the population, but with the odds of encountering that armed citizen being about 1 in 1,000, they figure it's pretty unlikely. If the odds were one in 10, you would see an effect. Now we just have to figure out how to convince 30 million American to start packing.

 

[george29]

Gangs

I read somewhere that NC has the highest MS-13 population of all the states and is also the fastest growing MS-13 state. I think you will find that the statistics are gang related and gang targeted.