"AHHHH! SCALPERS SUCK! PEOPLE WHO WANT TO RESELL THEIR AMMO ARE MEANIES!"
OK, so I'm a bit tongue-in-cheek here.
Pardon me if I'm a bit off-putting here but the OP has it right...bide your time, watch for the turn in the market availabilities, and make your purchases then.
Ammo and related supplies come and go in the market in recent years due to political and economic fears. I get it. Pretty sure we all get it.
But let's set a few things straight here: When I buy something it undergoes a magical transformation from "merchandise" to "private property". That means it's now "mine".
"Mine" as in "do whatever I wish with it, however I see fit".
If I choose to buy things like ammunition, ammunition components, magazines, etc. with an eye for "investment", then it's no different than buying comics, bitcoin, stocks, antique furniture, gold and silver, or anything else for investment. I buy it on the premise that its future value will increase, whereupon I can then sell it at a profit.
Whether I budget a case of ammunition a payday or month or whatever for this purpose is nobody's business except my own. All I've done is look at the market, noted some predictable variables such as political and economic climate triggers, and judiciously invested in material goods which have historically demonstrated a sharp increase in value when they occur. Then I start apportioning a bit of my income in stocking up on those material goods in the expectation that the future market will again drive the value up and I can make a profit. Buy low. Sell high. Basic.
If I do this and people don't like my asking prices for my own private property, then they can pass me by...just like anybody else. I'll either have to depend on others paying my asking price, or lower my asking price if my goods aren't selling.
I am under absolutely no obligation to sell my property at what someone else "thinks" is a fair or just price.
How many people here would buy a 100 round box of Winchester White Box 115 gr. FMJ from me for $30 Academy is currently asking? That's fair, right?
How many people here would buy that same box of ammunition for three times the current cost at Academy? $90 a box would be an awesome deal for me, right?
OK, now what if I told you I had several thousand rounds of the same ammunition that I bought at $10 a box years ago when every time I went to Walmart for anything I would walk out with at least $20 of ammunition each trip.
So, I sell you that same box of ammunition for three times what I paid for it at $30 a box and you, of course, think this is such a FAIR deal!
Or, maybe, I sell it for $40 or $50 a box...because it's scarce now and people in general are quite willing to pay a bit more. What about $60? $90?
Well, guess what? It's mine and if I can sell it for $100/box I'll do it...because it's MINE. Nobody HAS to buy it. They can go elsewhere.
OR...I can just sit on it. (Literally, with all the ammo cases it's stored in.) Because it's MINE and I don't have to sell it either. Then I'm a "hoarder", right?
If someone has a lot of something someone else wants and tries to sell it at any kind of a profit when the market takes a sharp upswing, they're labeled a "scalper" or "gouger".
If someone has a lot of something someone else wants and decides to keep it for themselves when the market takes a sharp upswing, they're labeled a "hoarder".
Let. It. Go.
It's not your property. You don't have to buy it from such people. You have no right to demand they transfer ownership in any fashion whatsoever.
We've had a few years of plentiful ammunition availability since the last run and everybody has been around long enough to have seen this cycle. We've all had the opportunity during the recent few years of plentiful supplies to buy the extra box or two every once in a while to stock up. A year or two of doing that will give a person quite a bit of buffer and they wouldn't be stressing when things are scarce. Coincidentally, such people wouldn't feel the need to use words like "scalper", "gouging", and "hoarder" with their fellow man.