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Don't plan for them to run

Discussion in 'Strategies, Tactics, and Training' started by mbt2001, Jan 26, 2015.

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  1. mbt2001

    mbt2001 Member

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  2. notaglockfanboy

    notaglockfanboy Member

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    That is the main reason me and the wife have nightstand weapons, and she can shoot with the best of them. Too bad the guy got excited and missed, that would have been two less thieves to worry about.
     
  3. JohnKSa

    JohnKSa Moderator Staff Member

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    Good points. Bad guys often run when the shooting starts, but you can't bank on it.
     
  4. RetiredUSNChief

    RetiredUSNChief Member

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    Personally, I like this comment by Assistant Chief Herman:

    "It appears to just be a random home invasion. There again, the gentlemen was keen enough to have his pistol for protection," Herman said.

    :)
     
  5. Deaf Smith

    Deaf Smith Member

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    What did King Leonidas say about that when he got to Thermopile?

    I'll just say if they run, they run, but I EXPECT them to not run.

    Deaf
     
  6. RetiredUSNChief

    RetiredUSNChief Member

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    Actually, I think what he said was "...the idea of kneeling, it's- You see, slaughtering all those men of yours has, uh, well it's left a nasty cramp in my leg, so kneeling will be hard for me."

    At least, that's what he said in the movie.

    :D
     
  7. MedWheeler

    MedWheeler Member

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    Quite a bit is still missing, such as for how long did the intruders stick around to fire, or were they doing it as they were running away? I also wonder how many rounds of those thirty were the homeowner's.

    That's indeed a lot of shooting, far more than any of us hope we'd have to let off. I agree that we can't bank on popping off one or two and being safe after that.

    Seems like all worked out to a nearly-ideal resolution.

    What I thought was kind of funny was the reporter's statement that "neighbors have said they're going to 'find their guns' and 'load their guns'.."

    "Find their guns"? :eek:
     
  8. strambo

    strambo Member

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    Yeah, that was funny, what has Texas come to?

    I love how everyone thinks they live in a violence free bubble where nothing like this can happen...until it does, then they talk about moving or how they thought it was safe, how they are going to get a gun now etc. Newsflash, there isn't a type or location of neighborhood where something like this can't happen, there is no violence immunity card.

    I know we'll never get the details, but with all the really high bullet holes and some looking like they may have been from outside the home, I'd like to know how it went down.

    It was a decent size home in the dark, with multiple moving criminals seeking cover and returning fire, that isn't a simple square-range marksmanship problem, which is why I like carbines with lights and red dot sights for HD.
     
  9. HankB

    HankB Member

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    So much for Joe Biden's recommendation of a double-barrel shotgun for home defense. :rolleyes:

    30 rounds, zero hits?

    Note to self: "Spray and pray" isn't a good strategy.
     
  10. Sam1911

    Sam1911 Moderator Emeritus

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    Homeowner alive. No bystanders or neighbors injured. Perps gone, threat ended.

    That's a WIN.

    Anytime nobody dies, that's just gravy. Can't always be such a positive outcome, and deaths may be an inevitable part of stopping some attacks, but no reason at all to Monday-morning-quarterback this guy's response.
     
  11. Mainsail

    Mainsail Member

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    I don’t see anything in the article that says they didn’t run after the first shot. Number or rounds notwithstanding, they did run. They could have been shooting over their shoulder for all we know, and the homeowner may have been firing toward the open door without ever having gotten up.

    In any event, it isn’t wise to try to make the outlier your base. For home invasions, this event is pretty far outside the standard deviation. We plan for worst case, we live within the six-sigma.

    As an aside, I still don’t understand why everyone doesn’t use a door bar- a bar that goes from the doorknob to the floor. It will seriously slow down a home invasion and only costs freaking $15 for crying out loud.
     
  12. DeepSouth

    DeepSouth Member

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    Thirty shots fired:eek: sure some weren't his but still!

    Somebody go tell that guy he'll never need more than 10 rounds in a mag, I be he'll disagree!
     
  13. Apachedriver

    Apachedriver Member

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    I agree with HankB.

    It's a win, but it's a lucky win if "spray and pray" was in fact the order of the day by the homeowner. Did you see how close the homes are laid out in that neighborhood? You can see bullet holes going into the home and I wonder if any bullets were fired out the front of the house. Where did they end up? It looks like those homes are all brick so that's a plus.

    Keep in mind, one man's Monday-morning-quarterbacking is another man's after action review. The homeowner's household is safe and that's important to him. For the rest of us, the takeaways are what matters.
     
  14. Ankeny

    Ankeny Member

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    An AAR generally consists of what was planned, what actually happened, and what could we do better next time. Everyone involved in the incident participates in the AAR.
     
  15. Sam1911

    Sam1911 Moderator Emeritus

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    Ok, my point here is not that training isn't good and practice isn't needed. More that the results were satisfactory without actual death resulting. Stop the threat, that is all.
     
  16. Coyote3855

    Coyote3855 Member

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    Well said, Sam. Your views are well received after hearing from keyboard commandos. Not necessarily in this thread or in this forum where such posts are discouraged.

    We had an incident in this community many years ago. A plumber came back after hours. Killed the husband, when up stairs for the wife. She fired six shots from a revolver down a hallway at the intruder, missed all six and he killed her also.

    Yeah, they don't always run.
     
  17. Deaf Smith

    Deaf Smith Member

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    RetiredUSNChief,

    Yea it would bother them if you said:

    "Men, here is where we stand", "here is where to stop them", "here is where they die".

    "madness"?

    "THIS IS SPARTA!"

    Yea, I love that show!

    Deaf
     
  18. Apachedriver

    Apachedriver Member

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    Absolutely. However, if the actors aren't available, you still move forward. You look at the events and available data, try to separate facts, and assess/discuss in order to make needed changes or reinforce current SOP.

    Otherwise, why bother sharing news events? There'd be no point in the discussion that followed. It'd be little more than gossip.

    It's not optimum but sometimes it's all you have online.
     
  19. HankB

    HankB Member

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    The OUTCOME is satisfactory - nobody died, and that's a good thing; we're in agreement here.

    BUT . . . how much of the good outcome was pure luck?

    It's like walking away from a major car crash without a scratch; good outcome, but proper prep would reduce the reliance on Lady Luck, who can be fickle at best.
     
  20. Sam1911

    Sam1911 Moderator Emeritus

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    Hank, I don't disagree, but we sure don't know anything about the homeowner. He might be a USPSA Grandmaster for all we know. Lady luck always gets her say, and we don't know how much he "relied" on her.

    After midnight, homeowner startled awake and doubtlessly quite terrified, bad light, real-life fast-moving targets appearing and disappearing quickly in confusion and noise. We don't even know how many rounds the homeowner fired compared to the bad guys. One of him and more than one of them -- they could have blasted 90% of the rounds fired and he only missed a few shots.

    We should all train and practice. But the fact that no one was hit doesn't mean he didn't do a fantastic job of defending himself. That's my only point in quibbling here.
     
  21. Fred Fuller

    Fred Fuller Moderator Emeritus

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    The thing about gunfights is, they don't come with guarantees. You can do everything wrong, and still prevail. You can do everything right, and still die.

    The reason we study, train and practice is to be able to do the best we can under unexpected, highly uncertain and trying circumstances.
     
  22. TimSr

    TimSr Member

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    For most of us, no matter how safe the area we live, the hardcore criminal element is probably less than a 30 minute drive away, and more and more of them are taking that drive to find less prepared victims.
     
  23. strambo

    strambo Member

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    Heck, in my area (Portland, OR) billions are being spent on mass transit that doesn't pencil out to help transport them back and forth.
     
  24. JohnKSa

    JohnKSa Moderator Staff Member

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    Based on what I see of real world gunfights, I think that most of the time the outcome is pure luck--whether bad or good. People are lucky to get any hits at all, let alone solid center of mass hits. People's guns jam, they forget how to work them, they forget to use the sights, etc.

    Not ALL the time, but a lot of the time--probably most of the time.

    I'd say any time a single armed defender prevails against more than one armed attacker it's pure luck (the attackers run which is lucky--or are all neutralized which is even more lucky) or amazing skill. All you have to do is run the probabilities on what it takes to hit more than one defender more than once and it becomes obvious what a tough row that is to hoe.
     
  25. Phaedrus/69

    Phaedrus/69 Member

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    There's luck involved but it can't all be luck! I recall one trainer (maybe he's a member of THR, I don't recall) that has had 60 students that have won gunfights :)eek:). Just going by recollection he's only had two that didn't survive and those two were trained by him but weren't armed at the time they found themselves in a lethal encounter. I know nothing about gunfights save the AARs I've read but it seems that having solid (ie practical) training is a force multiplier.
     
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