Salmoneye
Member
I'm just observing current market trends that I don't expect to change.
And you see a drop in production in manufacturing and sales of guns in .38/357 at this time do you?
*popcorn*
I'm just observing current market trends that I don't expect to change.
Posted by Jason_W:How well did your 1985 predictions for 2015 pan out?
well then in that case add 7.62x54r (still used in conflict areas and by countless nations) and i'm already good to go!I also predict that the above guns will only be chambered in the following.
.308 win
.223 Rem/5.56 NATO
7/62x39mm (maybe)
9mm
.40 s&w
.45 ACP
.22 LR
I think the changes for CIVILIAN guns will be minor in the next 3 decades, unless some materials are developed that replace steel found in slides, barrels, etc. I doubt that occurs.
Otherwise, we've reached the zenith in designs for ergonomics and controls and such.
No idea what winners and losers as far as calibers, but would suggest that the niche calibers like .327 and perhaps some of the WSSMs and WSMs which are redundant will die off.
I'm perhaps the last generation of folks that like bluing, wood, and steel and wheelguns and I as born in the 1970s. So in 30 years my generation will be dying off statistically. Blued and steel guns will reach quite venerable ages as well and parts for repairs get harder to find... so these guns over time will end up set aside - or perhaps actually IN gun shops for repairs or trade ins.
Military hardware will likely change. There are advances in ammo propulsion which will likely impact those - but that will be prohibited from civilian use.
True that. There are over 20 million deer in the United States at the moment and the numbers keep growing. More than when Columbus sailed in 1492.
Hunting will become stronger, and most of those, "to be extinct" cartridges, will still be thriving in 2045.
I'm bookmarking this thread for '45. I'll only be 102 by then!
I dunno...it's cool to speculate a bit. I'm a big "write it down and see if it happens" kind of guy who ran my own electronics business for 20 years and had to analyze trends and such to modify a business that existed in an environment that was changing daily.
The present trend in that field? I tried to predict it but the only prediction that came true was to be agile and flexible because it was gonna change and change fast but where it was going would not be clear until shortly before it went there.
I doubt we have much idea of where a lot of things will be in 30 years and firearms/calibers are no different. It's gonna change but change in the next 30 years will be more than the change we have seen in the last 100. I think it's fun to speculate but I'd not take any of that to the bank. It's not impossible for anything to happen.
VooDoo
Ammo calibers that are popular today but have with limited application that will likely be hard to find and expensive (including many "say-it-aint-so's"): 7.62x54R (same fate as the other WWI/WWII rounds like 6.5mm, 7mm, and 8mm from various countries since the supply of mosin-nagants will soon dry up and no one chambers new rifles for them in volume), 30 carbine (very few new guns), 9x18 (no new guns), 7.62x38 (no new guns), 5.56x39 (only use is AK pattern rifles which will be overtaken by 223 chambering in the US market),
Jason,
With all due respect your view is very narrow.
We are living in the golden age of firearms and ammunition developments and improvements. Our choices of firearms of all types and price ranges has never been better. Radically new bullet designs are hitting the market every day (Hornady Flextip for example). Consider the new life that the 9mm is enjoying. All but dead 30 years ago now probably the most popular self-defense handgun cartridge in the U.S.
I expect niche handgun cartridges such as the 327 Federal and 357 SIG to die off along with some rifle rounds. On the other hand manufacturers will be introducing new rounds and bullets designs and old favorites will enjoy improved sales as the new generation "rediscover" Grandpas old guns.
The revolver being dead? Hardly. Take a look at their sales now. Small frame revolvers enjoy good sales with women for concealed carry. Consider that California is killing off sales of new semi-autos. Is it really realistic to expect the gun laws in California (and Washington and Oregon States) to become less restrictive?
AR's, while popular, simply don't the needs of many shooters in the real world. See my thread about the Savage Hog Hunter in 308.
When was the last time a manufacturer introduced a new gun that made you excited?