Guns and cartridges you expect will be extinct in 30 years

[Gun Master]

Future Forcast Frontal Lobotomy

The Colt 1911 .45ACP will be the equivocal successor of the Colt Peacemaker .45 Colt Long, in the next 30 years.

I, personally, do not plan to be here to see if I'm correct.

 

[USAF_Vet]

So you (OP) don't think the .30-06, which has been around over a hundred years already, will still be around in 30? Or the .30-30, which is even older and has been in constant production?

I think your list is... well let's just keep it High Road and say I disagree.

I will agree with .45 GAP, and maybe even .357 Sig. Neither really ever caught on, and even most of the police departments who used them because of the massive discounts ended up going another way.

I think with the way things have been trending since the expiration of the federal AWB, more guns have come out, more variety has been introduced, more innovation has come down the pipe.

5.7, .22TCM, and even some of the more modern loads for .22 rimfire magnums have revolutionized small bore pistols, and while they haven't completely gone mainstream, I don't see them going away since there isn't anything to replace them.

Some of the super short magnums may die off, or be reduced to hand loading only, but that may be about it.

Revolvers will always be around. The idea that they are obsolete is naive. Auto loaders haven't killed them off yet, and unlikely ever will. Near obsolete cartridges like .38 S&W still have limited factory production, and we haven't had a new gun chambered in that round in what... 50 years or more?

.30 Remington died off, which is too bad. My wife stands to inherit a Remington model 8 in .30 Remington.

 

[YumaKid]

I believe that revolvers will be around ad infinitum. Sure, there will be "improvements" from time to time. And there already are "corrections" - Smith & Wesson have reintroduced the .357-on-a-K-frame with the return of the Model 66 Combat Magnum. In 30 years, I'll be 83, and I'll have one.
Went in "halves" on a grungy-looking 66 at a gunshow in Atlantic, Iowa with my son-in-law back in August of 2012; so that my daughter could have her ".357 just like Mom's". After 1/2 bottle of Hoppes and a couple of bronze brushes and a cylinder full of full-jacket ball rounds; that bore looked almost as pretty as the 13's bore.

(Actually her mother's .357 is in fact a Model 13, but does a couple-three ounces for an ejector rod shroud mean all that much? Especially if "Mom" liked it so much that she claimed it away from her husband. What was I gonna do? Say no???)

Some firearms transcend "the march of time". A good, well-assembled double action revolver like just about ANY K-frame is the quintessential "safe gun" for a beginning gun-owner. Any one made "back in the 80's" or later has a good hammer-block safety, good balance and a propensity to put the shooter on-target in short order. No fancy "safety on the trigger" mechanisms, no laser sights (although I'm sure a competent gunsmith could do the work if you don't want to do it yourself); just pick it up, line up the sights and hit your intended target. Just doesn't get any easier than that.
And my 18-yr-old son has already expressed an interest in my 629; don't expect the .44Spcl/.44 Rem Mag to disappear any time soon.

Same for .30-06 (and its derivatives like the .270) 7.92x57, .308, .223/5.56 - NOT going away in 30 years; there are plenty of military arms out there, STILL giving exemplary service. Okay, the number of '98 Mausers is presently capped by "Presidential fiat'; but I'd be willing to bet that there are more than a few still 'marking time' in a closet or gunsafe, just waiting to be pressed into service.

And if there is no longer a manufacturer of 1911's; I'll just go find myself a SIG 220 in .45ACP!

Some things are just "too good to die"; no matter which generation is 'in charge'.

When all else fails, I do know of vendors of charcoal, sulfer, and the preservative commonly used in the the commercial baking of breads and cakes; and can make "good ol' Black Powder" to fill the chambers of my "eye-tal-yen" replica's. And I can cast my own "round ball" slugs.

Don't know about you city folk, but "... a country boy can survive."

 

[Red Wind]

Yesterday. The Savage Hog Hunter in 308. I don't know when it was introduced but yesterday was the first time I saw and handled one. I have absolutely no need for it but that isn't going to stop me from getting one.

Handguns? The two new Berretta 92's. Ruger New Vaquero.

Still bored?

Try blackpowder shooting . There are bunch of cap and ball revolvers and rifles.

Still bored?

Try flintlocks.

Ok. you want other modern new products. Build your own custom guns.

I have a Ruger Single-Six in 41 Special that was built for me. Probably only a dozen of them made.

Future projects;

Ruger New Vaquero. Adding adjustable sights and usual stuff like action job, trimming some metal off here and there, refinishing.

How about a S&W Model 586 converted to 41 Special?

How about some used stuff?

A Lee Enfield .303.

A 1917 in 30.06.

How about getting outside and hunting buffalo with single-shot big bore buffalo guns like the Remington Rolling Block or the Sharps in 40-65, 45-70, 45-90, 45-100, 45-110 or 50-90? Filled with blackpowder of course and shooting from cross-sticks using tang rear sight and globe front sight.

Build a custom rifle and go hunting elk on horseback.

Gun cranks never run out of guns and cartridges to get excited about.

That was a fun post. I enjoyed it, thank you. Especially the bolded part. Buffalo hunting the 19th century way. Very cool.

 

[jbm]

I think as manufacturing gets easier and easier, we will see a revival of even more older cartridges that are already gone today. I don't think anything will just start going away.

Brad

 

[Jason_W]

So you (OP) don't think the .30-06, which has been around over a hundred years already, will still be around in 30? Or the .30-30, which is even older and has been in constant production?

I think your list is... well let's just keep it High Road and say I disagree.

Those two will depend on the popularity of hunting in 30 years. There's little practical reason for a non-hunter to own a .30-06 or .30-30.

I also think that people might be misunderstanding me sentiments. I'm not advocating a whittling down of available firearms and cartridges, I'm actually lamenting what I see as a sad inevitability.

Manufacturers only make what they know they can sell at a profit. More tradition firearms (revolvers, lever action rifles, bolt action rifles with actual wood stocks) still sell to some degree largely because baby boom generation loves them (understandably) and buys them.

Guys my age and younger tend to not share my affinity for guns of wood and steel. To an 18-year-old kid, a Marlin 1894 simply isn't going to be as alluring as an AR-15, with rare exceptions of course.

I do hope I'm I'm wrong, of course. I hope I'm wrong about most of my suspicions and expectations. And who knows, hipsters did revive, to a degree, vinyl records, so maybe a similar movement will take hold among younger people in the firearms world.

 

[USAF_Vet]

I don't see .30-06 or .30-30 as "hunting only" cartridges.

.30-06 is a great medium to long range target round.
.30-30 is a decent home defense round. I'd use it in a heartbeat.

 

[Jason_W]

I don't see .30-06 or .30-30 as "hunting only" cartridges.

.30-06 is a great medium to long range target round.
.30-30 is a decent home defense round. I'd use it in a heartbeat.

No arguments from me about their effectiveness.

Still, I would venture that most people would gravitate toward the .308 for target and the 5.56 for home defense.

I'm digging around trying to find sales figures to see what's up, but the best I've found so far is this.

http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/2012/09/foghorn/buds-gun-shop-lists-top-10-guns-for-2012/

I'm basing a lot of my assertions off of what's been introduced by manufacturers in the last few years. Remember Ruger's big unleashing of new guns a couple of months ago? With the exception of their GSR in .223, it was a new variation of the American (budget bolt) A polymer pistol of some kind, and an AR. Manufacturers make what the majority buys.

 

[johnandersonoutdoors]

I definitely disagree with the OP for a variety of reasons.

1) I have not done the research, but I would bet that if we looked at the historical rate of extinction of guns or calibers it is much smaller than what is being suggested above. There is no reason why the trend would accelerate so dramatically as suggested, unless we are figuring on factors of economic depression and other things.

2) My personal list consists of 22lr, 38spl, 9mm, 223, 30-06. Having recently sold my only shotgun (a 12 guage) and an AK. I hold the same disagreement as I mention above. I have consolidated slightly and really don't care for more calibers than I currently have. I shoot more than most gun owners. I focus my current pistol training on one gun in 9mm. But most folks I know that shoot less have even more guns and variety of calibers than I do. I don't see that changing either.

3) The OP mentions only synthetics and such being available. Why? Barring major economic changes people will always have a desire for nice wood stock guns.

This is not the best argument I can make but it is late and I am tired. Just don't agree, assuming no incredibly major economic, legal, or cultural changes to the US.

 

[Sheepdog1968]

I would expect any cartridge that has come out in the last 5 years will be unlikely to stand the test of time. I could live quite happily with cartridges that are at least 100 years old.

 

[morcey2]

Barring government intervention of some sort, very few of the current cartridges will be extinct. There are many that have been "obsolete" for close to 100 years that are nowhere near extinct. Just off the top of my head, I'll list what I think will still be made in production guns 30 years from now (along with what you listed):

30-30
30-06
270
280
7mm-08
243
300 win mag
7mm Rem mag
Most of the weatherby clan
22-250
17 HMR
22 WMR
10/12/16/20/28 gauge - 410 bore
260 Rem
6.5x55
25-06
300 RUM
338 RUM
204 Ruger
6.5-284


And that's just off the top of my head while I'm exhausted. I'm sure there are more. And even more when you consider custom guns:

257 Roberts
7x57 Mauser
35 Whelen
338-06
etc...
Many Ackley Improved versions of lots of them

Cartridges fall out of favor, but they very rarely go extinct. It just gets harder to find brass.

Matt

 

[EchoM70]

Sounds like a sad world you are envisioning.

I think most will still be around that we have today except for the few that are already heading toward the grave, like WSSM's, 17 WSM, RCM's, SAUM's, 30 Remington AR. Just the ones in recent memory that never took off, not even a cult following really. I'm sure they'll be far more choices in the next 30 years than we have now... Variety is the spice of life.

 

[Rollis R. Karvellis]

I, have a feeling that in thirty years a true Colt Python clone will be made by someone. Probably the Italians, but possibly the Chines.

''Lets face it gentlemen in thirty years from this year of our lord 1912, there is no doubt that those thumb cocking revolver's, as a matter of fact any revolver, will even be known of let alone available or wanted.'' Internet Gun Expert 1912*.

*Yes the internet existed in 1912, it just wasn't as fast.

 

[IlikeSA]

I believe that some of the already on the brink of cartridges being gone.

Anyone find 22 shorts easily? My brother and I went looking at the gun show for some. We found a brick for 150 dollars. My brother only gave 100 dollars for the gun - a stubby little pocket pistol. I told him to sell it: it's too much trouble to find ammo.

I think some of the rimfires may go the way that 22 short, long, and cb shorts have gone, especially if they don't make enough. I like .22 LR, but at the price they are when you can find them, I'd rather shoot centerfire. People will get frustrated trying to find rimfire and get rid of those guns. I think some of the .17 calibers will go too.

I see trends of yesteryear: the 70's and the -add number- maximum/super magnum loads: the 80's and 90's polymer revolution: the mid 90's and early 2000's answering the question "How powerful can we make a revolver?" Currently we are still in the "how small and convenient can we make a carry pistol?"

Rifle-wise we went from bottlenecked loads for efficient power, with new ultra magnum, ultra short magnum, etc. Currently we are in the "develop new loads for AR's" and "let's make affordable rifles."

These affordable rifles and pistols are a good thing. They whet people's appetites without asking too much commitment. You get the affordable AR. You get the polymer pistol. You wonder "what's the allure of the 1911?" "Why do people like that custom revolver?" with derision. Ammo gets a little expensive. You start reloading. You then start to appreciate some of the more arcane aspects of bullet design, pet loads. You seek better accuracy. Then quality comes into play. You see the quality of these custom weapons and want one. You come to the pinnacle belief that the revolver is superb for some of these loads. A polymer pistol and rifle becomes a bit boring. Wood and steel call out. That's where I am. If only my wallet would keep up.

I think that 357 sig will not be with us. It's a good round but too difficult to find. Make barrels cheaper and produce mass quantities of ammo to make it cheaper and it may survive. That won't happen though.

I think that 41 mag will be a specialty round, as it is now. Great round, but too powerful for a home defense round, too expensive of ammo, and hunters will take the 44 mag.

I think 460 XVR will be gone as well. Another great round but too niche.

 

[toivo]

I am gonna have to say, the .380 ACP is here to stay. There are soo many guns as of late chambered in this, all mouse guns but still i don't see it going anywhere.

I agree. Currently there are pocket .380s on the market from Ruger, Kel-Tec, SIG, Beretta, Kahr, S&W, Taurus ... I could go on, but it's late and I'm tired.

That's not to mention the larger .380s, like the SIG P232, Glock 42, and Bersa Thunder. No, I think .380 ACP is going to be around for a while.

 

[JeeperCreeper]

I could go on about how smart I am, but I will just say that we will have more options in the future, not less.

Guns are a business, and business means selling stuff to make money. Making money does not mean "let's cut all our product lines and only make run-of-the-mill Glock-1911-AR-Magnums since that's what the internet likes".

 

[likesguns]

.45gap,.357sig are obvious chooses.

 

[Tanshanomi]

The only ones I would bet money on are .25NAA and .32NAA. They just really never caught on. .357SIG ammo will still be around, but you might not be able to buy a new one. .22TCM is a crapshoot at this point -- it could fizzle or really take off. I think it depends on whether anybody other than Armscor jumps into that pool.

 

[DeepSouth]

/I doubt you'll see any WSSM's in 30 years.

I tend to agree, they seem like a solution looking for a problem to me.
And as much as I like my .450 Marlin I doubt it'll be around in 30 years.

 

[Zaydok Allen]

Extinct? I doubt very much that any particular gun type or cartridge will TRUELY go extinct that is in production today, or sought after by collectors. They may get hard to find, but there is a difference between extinct and rare. If folks like us pass on the interest, and we document the knowledge, and demonstrate the purpose of these fine old "archaic" designs, they will remain.

I expect innovations in new powders and metallurgy to add new offerings to the mix. This will undoubtedly lead to new preferences by new shooters, and thus production of some types of guns and ammo will greatly diminish. However, with the number of collectors out there, and the number of shooters out there, combined with the fact that passing on an interest in guns through family ties is common, SOMEONE will find that niche market for obscure cartridges, and "old gun" smithing, and make a business out of it. Thank you capitalism.......

If revolvers go the way of the dodo, I will be soon to follow.

 

[MachIVshooter]

I think some of the rimfires may go the way that 22 short, long, and cb shorts have gone, especially if they don't make enough. I like .22 LR, but at the price they are when you can find them, I'd rather shoot centerfire. People will get frustrated trying to find rimfire and get rid of those guns. I think some of the .17 calibers will go too

The way of the short? Are you speaking of the little round that was one of the first metallic cartridges (and the oldest rimfire) which has been in continuous production for 170 years? The one that is still hugely popular for small game hunting and pest control?

Just because you don't see it's merits and can't find a decent price on it doesn't mean it is without use, unpopular or universally expensive.

The short, both in CB and high velocity versions, will be with us to the end. Now, the long, yeah; to my knowledge, CCI has been the only manufacturer to offer it for some time, and while it will probably never completely vanish, very few people buy it, since it is basically inefficient packaging of the short.

 

[Jason_W]

Sounds like a sad world you are envisioning.

I think most will still be around that we have today except for the few that are already heading toward the grave, like WSSM's, 17 WSM, RCM's, SAUM's, 30 Remington AR. Just the ones in recent memory that never took off, not even a cult following really. I'm sure they'll be far more choices in the next 30 years than we have now... Variety is the spice of life.

I am undeniably a pessimist. Can't help it. It's how I was raised

 

[Jason_W]

3) The OP mentions only synthetics and such being available. Why? Barring major economic changes people will always have a desire for nice wood stock guns.

To clarify, I don't think that wood stocks (or revolvers) will be gone completely, I just think they'll be specialty items beyond the price real of what the everyman can afford. Sort of like the status that fine double barrel shotguns and drillings currently have.

 

[Gun nutty]

Sort of, but not really.

What's the difference between a Glock, a Springfield XD, and the S&W M&P? Minor variations in appearance and ergonomics, etc. At their core, all three are just polymer pistols chambered for common semi-auto handgun rounds.

What's really the difference between the savage Axis, the Ruger American, The Mossberg ATR, the Marlin X series, and the TC Venture?

When was the last time a manufacturer introduced a new gun that made you excited? I might just be jaded, but my response to new guns over the last few years has been a sarcastic, "Yay, yet another AR?budget bolt action?polymer auto."

Jason you should look into the mossberg MVP line.

As well as FNH's FNX line.

Just some newer guns that I think are pretty awesome

 

[BSA1]

Jason,

As I said you are looking out too small of a window.

Those two will depend on the popularity of hunting in 30 years. There's little practical reason for a non-hunter to own a .30-06 or .30-30.

Consider just the 30-30. There are millions and millions of Winchester and Remington lever action rifles in good working condition out there (I think 6 million Winchesters alone have been made). Assuming they are stored indoors from the weather to avoid rusting those guns will still be here in 30 years. So it spite of that you are predicting 30-30 ammunition will not be made anymore. What do you think is going to happen to all of these Winchesters and Marlins? Used as fenceposts?

From a strictly political angle these are among the last long rounds that will be banned. The lever action rifle probably has the best image as a "good guys" (i.e. the American Cowboy) gun. It is also one of the best choices for home self-defense. The carbine is light enough for most women, the buttstock will fit many woman and can be easily shortened, very simple to operate, avoids the evil high capacity magazine while the 30-30 has enough power to deal with any large threat, it's not black, it's not made for war and spraying bullets and it is easy and safe to store loaded standing ready for instant use unlike the AR which has to have a magazine.

Reread the comments on this thread. Other THR posters have made excellent points as to why we believe your viewpoint is wrong. You need to get out more often and start shooting on outdoor ranges that allow rifles and handguns. You will be amazed at the hugh variety of rifles and calibers that are being shot.

And shooting is just plain fun!