How much ammo in the supply chain?

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A couple coworkers and I were discussing one of those what-if scenarios over lunch:

If ammunition manufacturers stopped producing new ammo today (zombies, Democrats, natural disaster, whatever) - how long would it take for popular calibers to disappear off the shelves?
 
I couldn't accurately state a time frame but a look back at when Obama was first elected could give a pretty good idea.

Popular and less popular calibers dropped in availability rather quickly. Meanwhile, production was still ramped way up at the time. Sure, two wars had a part to play, but his election, and people's perception of things to come because of it, played a rather large part in that situation as well.

For example, Walmart started rationing how many boxes per caliber one could buy due to people buying everything they had on site the minute it hit the shelves. That did nothing to stem the tide of buyers and if anything increased the 'panic'.
 
Who knows man.......... a day or two? Does it matter? If it is a concern to you, I recommend having lots of it on your own shelves.

If there were a Democrat threat, the ammo would probably be gone weeks ahead of any legal decission.

If it were a natural disaster bad enough to stop all manufacturing, you probably won't be too worried about it. Food, shelter, and water will be a lot bigger concern to everyone. If it's that big of a disaster, the stores will be closed and it will be a matter of hours before the deadbeats start looting.

Either way, you should have a little saved.
 
You not being able to get it, and it not being produced, are two very different things. If manufacturers ever stopped actually making ammo, 2008-2009 would look ammo-rich in comparison. I know my town would be completely dry as soon as there was indication that supply was slowing down.
 
Popular survivalists predict that store chains would be cleaned out of everything valuable (food, water, ammo) within 1 week of anything SHTF.
 
Living on the Gulf Coast for many years, I can assure you that a week is grossly overestimating the supply of most anything. The last hurricane I went through was Ike in 2008. The grocery store shelves were empty within a few hours of the governor ordering an evacuation. Gasoline was gone within a day and plywood was gone long before the announcement.

The time to buy supplies is BEFORE there's an event of any type.
 
This topic will be locked if the subject of S*** continues.
They don't allow it.

If we suddenly lived under WROL (Google will have it), my concern would be finding refrigerated insulin for my wife, or she would soon be a goner, along with many other people needing medications. Guns would not help.
 
Spend your time reloading and you wont have to worry about it...

The grocery store shelves were empty within a few hours of the governor ordering an evacuation.

Its very surreal to walk into a store and it be empty, even of the crap people dont actually NEED to survive. Another important lesson Ive been dealt by Hurricanes is CASH.
 
A couple coworkers and I were discussing one of those what-if scenarios over lunch:

If ammunition manufacturers stopped producing new ammo today (zombies, Democrats, natural disaster, whatever) - how long would it take for popular calibers to disappear off the shelves?

Shelves?

If it were big enough...1 day, maybe 2.

The supply chain? Wouldn't matter, you probably wouldn't be able to get your hands on anything at that point.
 
If the ammo manufacturers announced they were stopping production, then the big box stores would sell out within a day or two, but all privately owned gunshops and such would still have ammo except it would probably cost you $100 for a box of .22lr.
 
Ditto on medalguy comment.

One only has to look at the history of past events such as natural disasters and civil unrest.

By the time I got off work around 4:00 pm on 9/11/11 the lines at all the gas stations were at least a city block long with some people waiting in line for a hour.

Since I knew that with the resulting gasoline shortages running was not option my concern was ensuring we had enough food and water while the truckers were shut down. I stopped off and brought several cases of bottled water. Before the store closed a few hours later they were out of bottled water.

Oh and all of those Preppers won't seem so extremist any all!:what:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQKKj_qeOBQ&feature=player_detailpage
 
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With most domestic manufacturers running JIT (just in Time) lines of ammo to satisfy confirmed orders only - I'd say you're on your own in an emergency.

Then there's the scenario we've seen recently of the period of many domestic manufacturers having been diverted to direct or support supply of the military and its operations as in the past decade.

Nope, you'll have what you've already got... And can keep!
 
Last year I was talking to a military friend. He told me that ammo they used on the ground in Iraq was dated and was only one month old, that is it had been made one month before it was issued. He thought that was an indication of reserves, and it may be, but no way to be sure.
 
Last year I was talking to a military friend. He told me that ammo they used on the ground in Iraq was dated and was only one month old, that is it had been made one month before it was issued. He thought that was an indication of reserves, and it may be, but no way to be sure.

Oh, don't worry about the military. They have a metric crap ton of ammo on hand.
 
Military being part of government does wierd stuff regarding ammo. Like various branches being sure to waste most of what they have from last year in order to justify getting the same amount the following year.

It is a typical defense industry tactic, never use less money than you might need the following year or they will see you can get by with less and reduce your budget, and you may need more the next year. So they waste more tax payer money than needed doing things like burning through a bunch of perfectly good ammo to insure they get the same amount the following year.

You see similar things at all levels of government, they are sure to spend their budget because a surplus or being efficient and getting by with less than they had available means they may get their budget cut. So they burn through everything and then ask for more.
It is part of why government is horribly inefficient.




As for ammo, apparently the DHS was ordering massive quantities this year of hollow point ammunition. Which is obviously for domestic use. A bunch of nuts were all into that story and turning it into something else.
I think I saw two orders for 750 million rounds.
That is probably not helping bring down the cost of ammo.
Another interesting thing is since they are spending tax payer money, burning through tons of defensive rounds that can retail for $1 each instead of just practicing with FMJ rounds of the same grain bullets and velocity is how they do it.
Citizens may not be able to afford it and use cheaper ammo to practice, but when spending your money they use only the good stuff.



So there is a lot of ammo out there. In an interruption though you won't be getting it. However if you stop using ammo recreationally you really don't need very much.
Criminals for example often use so little ammo they can find them with magazines of multiple types of ammo, topped off with what they had on hand at the time they last fired some rounds.
You only burn through large quantities of ammunition recreationally or providing suppressive fire. An hour supply at the range would last you a long time.
It would take a civil war to need the type of quantities many hoard.
Well if we look to foreign examples of such situations, let us just take some war torn places like Afghanistan or Iraq during conflict. Far more people died of hunger than violence.
For example quick search for an example turned up this from 2009:
http://www.aolnews.com/2009/11/06/hunger-is-afghanistans-biggest-killer/

An estimated 25 times as many Afghan citizens die every year as a result of hunger and poverty than from violence
(And many many times more civilians die in violence in that conflict that soldiers or security forces, so 25x more dying of hunger is massive.)

When you got civil war a lot of jobs close. A bunch of bullets don't feed you, and hunting is a pipe dream because there is in reality very little game amounting to less than a year's food supply for the population even in the United States.
Guns and ammo may help you steal someone else's which is why they also have guns and ammo. But for those really scared of such a situation, ammo quantity is not a huge concern, unless you are trying to supply a faction of the conflict. Whether you have hundreds of rounds not being fired while you starve in your home, or thousands of rounds, or tens of thousands of rounds, how long your food lasts will matter more than the ammo you are likely to fire very little of.

If you do have gunfights, they will generally be over with people dead or injured before you get through much ammo, and you won't get many of such conflicts before your time has come.
Whether you die with 10,000 rounds stored, or 9,500 left, is not going to matter much.
There is always government, government is people that band together with arms, and tax other people to pay for their existence, and turn those arms on them to kill or arrest them if they don't go with the system. Some governments are good some are bad, but they always exist.
This illusion that government ceases to exist like in some fantasy movie or game is not reality. There is never Mad Max times, some segment of the population will always form a new government even if you lose the last one. Government merely has periods where they may not be available, but eventually they will come around to deal with what they heard about when they were not around.
So there is always someone you will have to answer to for your use of firearms as well.
 
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So there is a lot of ammo out there. In an interruption though you won't be getting it. However if you stop using ammo recreationally you really don't need very much.
Criminals for example often use so little ammo they can find them with magazines of multiple types of ammo, topped off with what they had on hand at the time they last fired some rounds.
You only burn through large quantities of ammunition recreationally or providing suppressive fire. An hour supply at the range would last you a long time.
It would take a civil war to need the type of quantities many hoard.
Well if we look to foreign examples of such situations, let us just take some war torn places like Afghanistan or Iraq during conflict. Far more people died of hunger than violence.

I don't know about you, but I don't use ammo only for recreation or suppressive fire. I use it for practice and for training.

An hour supply at the range might last me a week of normal everyday living. Maybe less than a week. Maybe a month. But probably not more than that.

I'd rather not have to cease all practice/training.
 
I can attest to using more to make sure we get more. Right before my unit went overseas we had a battalion range qual for the M4/M16. We had about 160 soldiers in the BN which is rather small. Standard rifle qual uses 40 rounds. Assuming everyone passed first time around that's 6400 rounds of 5.56mm. Factor in a few people that won't pass the first time so to be safe we figured we would get about 9000 rounds. Nope. We got 17,000 rounds. On the first day. Second day was 10,000. Needless to say we spent plenty of time burning up ammo any way we (safety) could.
 
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