Will the ammo shortage create a flood of used gun?

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kd7nqb

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So I was thinking today, ammo has been on SUPER short supply for a long time and guns have been flying off the shelf. What are the chances that this will lead to a lot of the guns that were bought during the rush end up on the used shelves in almost unfired condition?

Secondly I was thinking that more people would shift to a single caliber so you would see some of the less popular caliber guns end up on the shelves. Say 10mm and .357sig, for example.

Am I totally off base?
 
The sale of guns and the shortage of ammunition have nothing to do with each other. Not in my opinion. The reason for the rush of gun sales is because many people believe that the new administration was going to restrict or ban the purchase of guns. Either totally or in part. Well, guns need ammunition. As such; that is partially the reason for a run on and shortage of ammunition. Why in the world would anyone sell their gun that they bought because they thought the government was going to ban them. That would NEVER happen. If a person even thought this way, they never would have bought a gun in the first place. Totally not going to happen.

Now; will some people who already had guns; and probably numerous guns; possibly sell certain guns because that particular ammunition is hard to come across or too expensive? Yes, that's definitely a possibility. However; most of those people, if they've got a few guns, have had them for a while. As such, they know that the ammunition will return to supply and they'll be good to go again. So I don't expect to see too many of those sales. Here's the 3 things I expect to see.

1. All the Non-Regular-Shooters; who bought a gun out of fear of "Gun Bans" will have the ammunition they NEED/WANT. These aren't regular everyday shooters. As such; whatever amount they feel comfortable with, they will get. They will NOT be needing RECURRING supplies. Once this happens, as well as the paranoid gun owner who is stocking up thousands of rounds; then the ammunition supply will catch up with the demand once again, and ammunition will not be in such short supply. And the gougers will lower their prices back to normal because people will be able to go to Walmart, Academy, Dick's, etc... any time they want and get the ammo they want.

2. Many of the people who bought guns because of fear of bans, will realize that this administration doesn't have the Power or the Votes to put a ban on weapons. They will realize that this party tried this in the early 90's and the majority of the congress got voted out of office. The new gun owners will realize that they really have nothing "YET" to fear. (There's plenty of other possibilities, but this isn't the main problem). They will keep their 1 gun. They'll have their ammo for it. It will sit in the closet for many years to come.

3. The dealers and individuals who tried to play off the fears of the people; by buying up way too many guns and ammo and trying to crank up the prices; will have to lower the prices. If they were able to buy at NORMAL prices and were cranking the prices up; they'll be able to lower the prices to somewhat "Normal" and stay alive. If they got caught up in the fear and bought at high prices from their distributors; then they are going to take a loss, and possibly be put out of business. Either way, it's going to be good for those wanting to buy.

But the new/1st time gun buyers aren't going to sell their new gun because of ammo. These gun owners aren't out their shooting their guns. They simply have the gun IN CASE they need it and IN CASE they were told they could no longer buy them. They don't have thousands of rounds and aren't looking for thousands of rounds. They have their couple of boxes, and that's all they need or care about.
 
Christcorp;

Your logic is impeccable, but events don't seem to be listening to you. Considering that the current trend of buying firearms started in October 2008, it's now been almost 9 full months & we're only now starting to see demand level out for guns. The ammo situation shows no signs of returning to it's pre-2008 market status. I have seen reloading components, particularly bullets, come off the spike, but they're still high. Other components, such as primers, remain in a "demand buy" market enviroment. Therefore, prices remain stratospheric when compared to the 2007 market.

When shopping the local emporiums, the supply of firearms seems to be adequate, display cases have goods, even the black plastic tacti-cool ones. But the ammo shelves are another story, many blank spots with salesmen unable to tell you when the holes will be filled. One emporium very recently got a shipment in of 600 thousand primers. They put a two brick a day per person limit on sales also. However, in three days they sold out, at market price of over $30.00 per brick. In the classifieds of the local paper a true gouger was advertising primers for sale at $150.00 per brick, in bricks only. The ad ran for about two weeks, but haven't seen it lately, he probably (and more's the pity) sold out too.

In my opinion, we're going to have to redefine normal for the foreseeable future.

900F
 
I beleive christcorp pretty well nailed it. I beleive a lot of people bought guns out of fear of a ban, not to shoot on a regular basis. They bought a gun and a box of ammo, took them home, loaded them, and put them in a night stand or in the closet, and they will stay there. I have no basis for this beleif but I haven't noticed an increase in shooters at the public and commercial ranges I use.
 
They bought a gun and a box of ammo, took them home, loaded them, and put them in a night stand or in the closet, and they will stay there.
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This is a common pattern for people buying guns for self defense, only maybe they shoot a box of ammo through the gun to prove to themselves that they can shoot the gun well enough to defend themselves and then they put it in a drawer/closet. Many gun owners never shooter more than a few hundred rounds their entire lives.

I have seen folks and CHL renewal classes here in Texas that will come in and unload their carry ammo from their guns, the same carry ammo they loaded up with when they last qualified and they haven't shot since the last time they qualified. They pass the test, reload the carry ammo, and are set for the next 5 years.

So I was thinking today, ammo has been on SUPER short supply for a long time and guns have been flying off the shelf. What are the chances that this will lead to a lot of the guns that were bought during the rush end up on the used shelves in almost unfired condition?
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Well, ammo isn't super short anymore. The last two gun shows I have been to have had plenty of ammo (except .380, but some vendors had it). So that part of the equation doesn't hold up. With that said, I have seen prices on some types of guns like AR15s coming down as well. Along with that, I have started to see folks started to sell off their Obama guns, only many definitely aren't used.
 
Real life,15 years later-bought a mini-14 because of Clinton. Shot it maybe 40x,accuracy poor,been unfired since. Still have 1000 rounds .223. Won't know if they quit making it. And by the way,I have 20-30 guns.
 
I'd say half of all handguns are not shot more than a few boxes of shells before they are sold off, and that may take 20-30 years. That has always been the case, Obama or no Obama. The larger the caliber, the less they are shot.

Rifles are a little different. But places to shoot are declining and the hassle factor has increased a lot. So, shooting is down.

There are a lot of people who bought their first AR/Black Rifle in the last 12 months. Most won't be shot much. They were not purchased with the intention of shooting them much. It is too expensive to shoot 500 rounds of most centerfire in a day for the fun of it for many. That has not changed and will likely not change.

One person feeds his family and the other feeds his Black Rifles. Tis the difference between having a family and not.

Ammo inventories are better than I have seen them since January. Gun inventories are increasing which means that average people are not spending their money for guns. The focus has begun to shift back to normalcy.
 
I shocked myself the other day at Walmart. The store had maybe a case of Blaser Brass 40 S&W at their current regular price (12 something) and I didn't buy a single box. That would not have happened in January 2009.
 
I considered ammo availability a long time ago, years ago in fact....
I concluded it was best to outfit myself with weapons
that I felt the ammo would be supplied by any force attempting to
screw with the free people of this country.

Just think NATO type rounds and you may get a clearer picture.
 
CB900F; I actually believe that the AMMO situation IS leveling out. As many others have said, they are starting to see ammo again. I have a couple places in our town that is selling 380. The prices are still up there; and it may still be a little while before the prices start to slow down, but I believe the availability is starting to be there.

By the way; love your screen name. I have a 1983 CB1000 Custom.
 
I am seeing this. Broke people selling the guns they have bought in the last 12 months because they need money. Many dealers sales levels are dropping back to normal but they went out and overstocked during the panic. I know at least one that is worried about this and I doubt he's alone. Prices are normalizing and guns are setting on the shelves longer. Ammo will stabilize soon and the craziness will end.

The guys that maxed out their credit cards to buy every EBR they saw and all the ammo they could get their hands on will be paying on those cards and in some cases selling at a loss to make ends meet.
 
There were over 3 million guns sold between Jan and Apr 2009 and 3 billion rounds of ammo with sales still going strong. IMO shortage of ammo has nothing to do with gun sales. One box (20 rnds of JHP) of ammo is all the ammo required for a lifetime of SD/HD.:)

Many dealers sales levels are dropping back to normal but they went out and overstocked during the panic.
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Many dealers failed to capitalize on the panic buying because their gun prices were outrageous and deserve to fail. Not only did they not attract new cutomers they also ran their steady customers off because of their pricing.
 
These dealers for the most part did not run off their regular customers or new customers. The customer came in for a couple boxes of ammo and the shelves were empty or the price was seemingly high. You do that a couple times and you don't stop anymore and the dealer misses potential impulse gun and ammo sales. It is rare that I go into a gun shop and buy absolutely nothing. I don't think I'm unusual in this.
 
Secondly I was thinking that more people would shift to a single caliber so you would see some of the less popular caliber guns end up on the shelves. Say 10mm and .357sig, for example.
Click to expand...

I disagree. By having two or more calibers in your collection you're more likely to find a box of ammo on the shelf that will suit you. As far as the slightly less popular calibers, my local Wal-Mart has had 4 boxes of .357 SIG on the shelf for over a week now. Yes, less places carry those calibers, and you most likely can't get it at the hardware store, but there are less consumers competing for it, so it evens out.
 
No socialist country in the world has ever allowed its citizens to have unrestricted access to firearms. Why would the US be any different?

Buy what you can, when you can, and hold onto it. Obama will get to your guns eventually.

Federal power expanded at unprecedented levels under Bush, and is expanding logarithmically under Obama. The end draws near for freedom in the US.
 
If guns become illegal to own, what are you going to do with all the ammo,guns? Shoot them and be arrested, start our second civil war?? I am in the same boat and am just wondering.
 
I can accept the new gun owner/ non hardcore shooter who buys a box or 3 of ammo and puts it away theory

BUT -

I have more handguns and rifles than i will ever need, some in some calibers that are expensive / hard to find even in "normal times" but i have also bought 3 .357 revos and another colt 1911 this year becuase prices were too good to pass up.

I also think that the .gov will never really try to outright ban all guns. way too many dems from red states, but i do think they try to will make the regs and costs so onerous on obtaining and storing ammo that most people will just say F-it and not shoot. See this bill working it sway through the PRK assembly now limiting ammo to 50 rounds month and no internet sales, that is the why the run on ammo. i want my 1 year old son and 4 and 6 year old nephews to be able to shoot and enjoy this American right.

That is why i am actively buying the several calibers that are most prevalent in my collection. of course, teh 6 box a day limit at wally is annoying but if you REALLY shop around you can get deals on the internet. i have been buying in case quantity lately as opposed to a box or 2. prices are a bit better, i also have been shooting less frequently. also, it does see the mad crush is levelling out and inventories of ammo are backfilling.

to the OP - will it create a flood and prices come down ? I dunno about a flood but i really hope prices come down so i can buy even more at lower prices. I think that if the econonmy gets worse you will see more and more quality guns come on the market at firesale priecs. and if its the Glock 19 that Joe non-shoooter bought, shot once and now is facing a layoff, and has no sentimental value becuase its not the piece his great ganddaddy, grandaddy and father all hunted with, you dont think that his old lady will tell him to pawn that thing and if hes really hungry he wont sell it for the 1st $400 shown to him? hell probly throw in a half shot box of hollow points to sweeten then deal
 
If guns become illegal to own, what are you going to do with all the ammo,guns? Shoot them and be arrested, start our second civil war?? I am in the same boat and am just wondering.
Click to expand...

Very serious question, but exploring it will get this thread closed post-haste. Best saved for another venue.
 
I don't think there is going to be a bunch of used weapons available. People will just stick them in a drawer somewhere and forget about them. Personally, I'd like to be in the collection room of one of those big city gun buy backs to "get them off the street" and cherry pick to my hearts content. I wonder who is rescueing the few nice ones out of all the junk people bring in.
 
so when will it end? will it? i have some ammo, and im not out looking for more but it would be nice to at least see some on the shelves!
 
There is going to be a flood of used guns once everyone stops panic buying and then figure nothing is going to be banned and need the cash.
 
Earl-- i think you are right.

By the way the Dealer I was talking about in earlier posts was far from having outrageous prices. He just over ordered for the last month or so.
 
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