He should have said INTERPOLATE instead of extrapolate. But his principle stands.
It doesn't take 50yrs to prove a firearm design is as good as an M16. plenty of rifles in almost every possible combination imaginable have been tested and proven - whether it's different length barrel and gas lengths, or even other cartrisges. Most shooters are unfamiliar with the idea of "wearing out" a firearm in their lifetime, let alone within a year, so it seems to them like "proving" a platform takes generations - frankly, that's not the case. Arms designers have proven metrics based on longevity studies of past firearms, and testing protocols to prove out new firearms to meet or exceed minimal acceptable standards.
Most shooters won't even burn out ONE barrel in their life, where as some others wear out a few barrels a year. Couple with that fire control groups, extractor springs, gas rings, barrel bushings, recoil springs, ejectors, operating rods, etc etc... Arms manufacturers can proof test a design within months.
PRODUCTION lines tend to be where a design fails, but the product design in itself is easily tested.
I missed the post that thought it took 50 years to
prove a variation.
Let me see if I can distil my thoughts to the lowest possible denominator.
Until someone, anyone, does a statistically significant level of test, for example say the .mil takes 500 rifles, fires them 50,000 or more rounds each, with otherwise identical components and ammo, then concludes that X type gas system bolts last 20K rounds on average over the test sample, and Y type gas system bolts last 25K (or whatever), then the difference is theoretical, not "proven", even though the elements that comprise the difference can be shown to have differing components(such as port pressure). Using inferred info is not data, an actual test result with a large enough number of guns involved with exactly comparable components would be
data. So far, we don't have that. It keeps being brought up that there is some sort of data, but nobody has presented it. How many rounds between bolt failures are there with what test sample size that is a measureable improvement over carbine gas? "Data" would have real measurable numbers arrived at by test methods, theory and inference is guessing based on the different component factors. Commercial success isn't
data either, its marketing success. The unrelated mass of various commercial guns in use isn't relatable as data, it hasn't given us provable, hard numbers of what the parts life difference is with the different systems, because no such attempt to gather or develop such data has never been done. Theres no reason to when mids sell without the effort to build the data base.
Please note, that at
no time have I criticized or said I didn't believe that mid gas was a good idea or improvement, I do believe its a good idea, and I like them. What I have said is so far we don't have
solid data on exactly what the difference is in parts life. It makes sense that theres an improvement, but repeatedly going over all the component differences doesnt
prove exactly what the difference in parts life is. Its a given that if someone says anything challenging in any way to peoples beliefs, even if those beliefs don't have the rock solid foundations they believe they have, they take offense, even when the different viewpoint has made zero offensive remark. I don't need educated in mid theory or history, Ive probably read all that's been mentioned more than once in researching mid gas, I like the mid concept, it just hasn't had the level of actual testing under the same type circumstances carbine gas has because of the .mil use of that system for as long as its been around. Reading any more than that into my posts is making incorrect assumptions. Once somebody of note makes an actual, real life test of statistically significant numbers to compare the parts life and port life differences, then we'll be there. Someday someone probably will. Nobody has come up with such a test so far.
Edit: Much of what I was attempting to address was covered in V-T's post above. The real life difference in functional service lifetime of the various AR types is beyond the required service life of the guns, and is basically not very important. All work. All continue to work with pretty minimal parts replacement to continue service even farther.