Is There Much Appreciation Left?

[Speedo66]

A neighbor, bright guy, went on a buying streak this week. He bought a Swiss K31, a Swedish Mauser, a Mosin rifle, and a Mosin short rifle. He's also open to buying a Swede M38 short rifle.

His take is that these guns are still appreciating and he bought them as investments, in addition to shooting enjoyment.

I haven't closely watched recent pricing and was a little shocked at the current levels.

So what say you, is there still enough appreciation left in these guns to make them good investments, or will the high costs make the prices stagnant in the future?

 

[bearcreek]

I'm not a "collector" by any stretch of the imagination. My guns are tools. That said I sure wish I'd have kept the M44 Mosin I had 15 years ago. Think I bought it for $85 or so.

 

[Mike OTDP]

The time to buy any C&R is while they are being imported. The instant the supply runs out, the price doubles...but will not increase much from there.

 

[entropy]

Most of those are at or near their peak. They will still go up slightly over the years as attrition takes it's toll, (Especially Mosins) but when a 91/30 averages $250, good deals are becoming further and further apart. The best deals now will be on guns that are themselves unaltered, but in cut-off stocks. The stocks won't be $10 on ebay like 15 years ago, but they can still be found.

 

[KansasSasquatch]

Hard to tell. They all used to be undesirable rifles but in the last 10-15 years a lot of people have jumped into collecting mil-surps. Back when Mosins were about $100 at local gun shows my local Cabelas was asking for about $160. I haven't paid much attention to Mosin prices the last year or 2 but I was in that same Cabelas 3 days ago and the 4-5 Mosins on the rack were tagged at $329.99 if I remember correctly. So apparently the prices have gone up. Cabelas has always been a little high but not THAT dang high.

I honestly can't see the prices/value going up that much more, for Mosins at least. Cheap mil-surp ammo has helped Mosin popularity but it's not so cheap anymore. When they have it in stock sgammo.com is pricing a 440 round spam can at $175. That's about 40 cents per round. I can find .308/7.62x51 Wolf ammo for 30 cents or less per round, without it being on sale. I personally wouldn't buy a $300 Mosin when I can get an AR-10 from PSA for $500.

But I could be wrong. I just can't see too many sub $2000 guns being collectible. At least not to the point that you'll see major gains. Is it really worth holding onto for 5 years or more to make $50 or $100? Swiss rifles or Garands are a different story, at lesst in my opinion. I can remember excellent condition numbers matching Garands going for about $800. Now its hard to find a beat-to-hell pieced together Garand for that.

 

[SamT1]

If a guy has money laying around I think the K31 has potential to go up, you don’t see many and never have.
I can’t imagine any increase in mosin value from here over inflation. Buying a mosin now is like buying stocks at record high and hoping we set a new record.
Mauser market has been pretty steady plateaued for a good while probably not even gaining inflation. It would be going up if building on the actions was popular still.

A simple $450 AR15 has more potential to go up in value than anything currently. Remember these are between ban serial numbers!

 

[cheygriz]

All quality guns appreciate over time. Sometimes slowly, sometimes rapidly. Always worthy investing in.

 

[<*(((><]

Another big problem with a lot of those, is the surplus ammo drying up. Not that one cannot reload for them, but its nice if one gets into the surplus military game on a rifle that shoots a proprietary cartridge, that one stacks deep some surplus ammunition to go with it. I would be more inclined to invest in the Swedish guns rather than the Mosins but a lot of that is personal preference. Not to say I wouldn't own a Mosin as I do, but for investment purposes the fact there are so many Mosins out there puts downward pressure on their value potential.

 

[AlexanderA]

The time to buy any C&R is while they are being imported. The instant the supply runs out, the price doubles...but will not increase much from there.

I would agree with this, with one caveat: if there is a new AWB, the price of all bolt action rifles will increase, since they would remain unrestricted (for the time being). A good hedging strategy, regarding gun investments, would be to buy a mix of AR-15's (assuming they would be grandfathered in some way), milsurps, and even reproduction and original muzzleloaders. You would have all the bases covered. Look for items that you believe are currently underpriced.

 

[boom boom]

Entropy has the right of it, I think. From what I've seen from restoration efforts, $400-600 seems to be the peak today of the average shooting grade foreign military surplus rifle (bolt action). The existence, or lack thereof, of cheaper ammunition to fire these firearms also affects the price that a shooter is willing to pay.

Ultimately, the part market determines some of these rifle's value as the parts warehouses go dry one by one. Quite a few people are now earning some kind of living breaking up old firearms into individual parts for resale which has set a price floor on even the firearms in poor condition.

German and U.S. firearms bring a pretty large premium in original shooting type condition. Rare and pristine versions go higher.

Un-used examples, like the THR discussion on the mummy wrapped Enfields, of course bring more as do rare variants such as genuine sniper rifles, etc. These will have some price appreciation but I suspect that it will flatten as the rifles get more and more expensive, their usefulness in actually shooting the darn things decreases.

Then, a particular firearm becomes chiefly a market for collectors. Those run by different rules including trends in collecting, inflation and interest rates, scarcity, alternative investment performance, portfolio hedging etc.

 

[GunnyUSMC]

Unless you can find very good deals surplus firearms are not a good investment right now.
How long do you think will go by before someone will be willing to pay $500 to $600 for a run of the mill Mosin? I just can’t see that happening in the next 10 years.

 

[NIGHTLORD40K]

Another big problem with a lot of those, is the surplus ammo drying up. Not that one cannot reload for them, but its nice if one gets into the surplus military game on a rifle that shoots a proprietary cartridge, that one stacks deep some surplus ammunition to go with it. I would be more inclined to invest in the Swedish guns rather than the Mosins but a lot of that is personal preference. Not to say I wouldn't own a Mosin as I do, but for investment purposes the fact there are so many Mosins out there puts downward pressure on their value potential.

Yep...this.

If relations with Moscow get any worse, kiss our supply of cheap Russian ammo goodbye.

 

[KansasSasquatch]

Unless you can find very good deals surplus firearms are not a good investment right now.
How long do you think will go by before someone will be willing to pay $500 to $600 for a run of the mill Mosin? I just can’t see that happening in the next 10 years.

Me neither. The stock market is somewhat volatile but good mutual funds average 10-13% interest per year over their lifetime. The risk/reward ratio is better there than with a couple crates of Mosins, in my opinion.

 

[bannockburn]

LUKE

Another big problem with a lot of those, is the surplus ammo drying up. Not that one cannot reload for them, but its nice if one gets into the surplus military game on a rifle that shoots a proprietary cartridge, that one stacks deep some surplus ammunition to go with it.

This, the availability of spare parts, and high prices would keep me from jumping in to the surplus market right now. I would think that prices will continue to rise on such guns as long as there's someone willing to pay the price of admission.

 

[<*(((><]

Everyone missed the boat on surplus guns, they should have paid attention to when Gunny bought his, that was the time to invest with the most upward mobility. I'm hazarding a guess here a little bit but the picture Gunny shows of his military surplus it looks like most of those were bought when they were sold propped up in 55 gallon drum. And judging by his ammo can closet he knew they were just long clubs with out adequate ammo.

Personally, I'm not out of the market of surplus guns, but it will be for both collecting and investment. And I will be sure to keep my eye out for some surplus ammo at gun shows, or internet sites.

 

[FL-NC]

I remember Garands for less than $300, carbines for $130, $70 SKS, $80 Yugo mausers, and rifles like Mosins, Enfields, and so on for less than $100. $150 Tokarex 33's, $200 Maks, and $250 systema 1911's . The prices are going up, and there is a finite supply of them.

 

[Slamfire]

I am glad I lived long enough to see the differences in surplus weapons prices from the 1960's, to the Reagan administration. Used to see $13.00 Lee Enfields in barrels at KMart, then by the time you get to the Reagan Presidency, Lee Enfields were rare. Once good President Reagan allowed importation of surplus, I went mad, I could not resist a $100 surplus rifle with a new barrel. Glad I got what I did.

These Swiss rifles are like jewels. The M1911 rifle was imported in the 1960's, but the K31's arrived in the 1990's. Unconventional rifles by American attitudes, but great shooters.





Prone, no sling targets! I don't think these rifles were meant to be shot with a tight sling, so you have to practice how you hold them.



You do better. This is a standing target at 100 yards with a military surplus rifle.



I put a tall front sight on this rifle to get it to shoot to point of aim at 200 yards. I think the lowest setting on the rear sight is 400 yards.






Those were the days!

 

[SamT1]

Guys punch some of those old milsurp price into a time value of money calculator and you’ll soon find even those early 90’s sks rifles for $80 are a poor investment vs an actual investment.

If you want one buy it, if you think it’s an investment you better do some math. Even those pythons bought in the 70’s were a poor investment.

 

[WestKentucky]

Just my 2cents... the collector market sucks the “good deal” market dry. The only thing I see being a fair deal right now are 2nd and 3rd tier guns that are old but functional. If you start looking at the market on rifles, the AR kills the overall market simply because it is cheap, versatile, and unbelievably plentiful. Shotguns have never been super collectible in any predictable way. The only caveat to that is browning A5 and the “other” licensed copies of A5s (Remington 11, Savage, etc). In the handgun world, pocket 9s and 380s are the whole world. Autos in other varieties fall into 2nd tier, and anything below .380 falls into 3rd tier. People just don’t want them and they can be bought cheap enough to be good investments because nobody is really making a 32 or 25 worth a flip anymore, and there’s not a ton of interest in maks. Kick over to revolvers...if it says colt, Ruger, or S&W on the side then it is collected. Period. No matter the condition it is collected. Move to 2nd tier revolvers...Taurus, Charter, EAA , and milsurps of all varieties can still be bought cheap enough, but skip the J frames because Smiths are too cheap to let those others have room to gain unless it’s an oddball like my Taurus 327. Right now, I would skip 2nd tier revolvers, and focus on 3rd tier. H&R, NEF, Iver Johnson, Llama. If there is ever a ban, it will likely be aimed at either capacity or action type and revolvers would be what is left driving prices up. I recently bought 4 H&Rs for $150. That’s $220 after shipping and transfer. Only thing wrong is that the plastic grips suck. They can be reinforced on the back side and/or replaced easy enough. I could make money now, but I enjoy them so I will keep buying while they are cheap. Eventually they won’t be cheap.

 

[earlthegoat2]

The surplus Hi Powers that are available now are probably worth investing in. 500 bucks for a gun that routinely sells for 1000.

Those Ohio National Guard 870s were a good investment and everyone knew it. I saw a folding stock one on GB that had been bid up to $1600

You gotta get in on the ground floor for real investments to mature.

 

[<*(((><]

Yes, $125 in good growth stock mutual funds vs. a $125 python in 1955, its a night and day difference in which one one should invest in.

Colt Python (if kept in excellent condition and purchased at MSRP)
1955 = MSRP $125
2017 = $3,000

So at 10% compounding interest your money doubles every 7 years. So...

1955 = $125
1962 = $250
1969 = $500
1975 = $1000
1982 = $2000
1989 = $4000
1996 = $8000
2003 = $16000
2010 = $32000
2017 = $64000

But this is a gun forum so being able to handle, enjoy and feel the investment makes us see value that is not there.

So one has to apply the same to a $1,200 K31.
Is a $1,200 K31 bought in 2018 going to be worth $19,200 in year 2046?

 

[boom boom]

Me neither. The stock market is somewhat volatile but good mutual funds average 10-13% interest per year over their lifetime. The risk/reward ratio is better there than with a couple crates of Mosins, in my opinion.

No, the long term average rate of return of the stock market/mutual funds/etc. is about 6-7 percent in real terms (about 10 percent nominal with inflation). So, an invested dollar roughly doubles in value over 10-12 years (see the Rule of 72). Any time line shorter than ten years is not long term by definition. Hedge funds and some individuals engage in riskier things like derivatives (essentially bets), options, commodities, and sometimes assets that are speculative to achieve higher returns such as bonds from bankrupt companies, junk bonds, real estate, etc.

Gilt edged Bonds, money market, etc. all give low rates because of perceived low risks. From memory, believe the long term on normal bonds is about 1-2 percent normal long term return (real) which is enough for wealth retention but not much room for growth. (rule of 72--72 to 36 years for doubling of investment).

https://www.thesimpledollar.com/where-does-7-come-from-when-it-comes-to-long-term-stock-returns/ and https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042415/what-average-annual-return-sp-500.asp

Collectibles are far more volatile in value as they tend to thrive in loose money--higher inflation and go down significantly during economic downturns with tight money and low inflation. They also represent, like gold and silver, ways to hedge your bets when the economy and government appears shaky in stability as they are easy to conceal, allow one to keep wealth off the books, are not taxed (unless you are in a jurisdiction with a personal property tax) typically until unloaded at market prices, etc. They also represent a chance, like art, to grab money from the nouveau riche when unloaded.

The people that usually suffer the most in investment markets are those that go all in for a particular investment (and that can include using resources to create a business as well) but that can give the highest gain as well. Thus, investment depends on your tolerance for risk and willingness to be a bankrupt pauper in return for the highest possible returns. Most of us are not that risk tolerant.

 

[reddog81]

They would have been good investments 10 years ago. I wouldn't be surprised if they are priced about the same as they are now 10 years down the road. When you can go to any milsurp store or website and find them, the sellers have to price them cheap in order to move them. Once the supply runs out the price will move towards a more realistic value and will stay there. Maybe he was just looking for an excuse to buy a couple of guns...

Like Luke mentions in post 8 the appeal is also limited due to ammo supply. It's nice when there's a plethora of cheap surplus ammo, but after that runs out you'll be paying a premium compared to more conventional cartridges.

 

[<*(((><]

No, the long term average rate of return of the stock market/mutual funds/etc. is about 6-7 percent in real terms (about 10 percent nominal with inflation). So, an invested dollar roughly doubles in value over 10-12 years (see the Rule of 72). Any time line shorter than ten years is not long term by definition. Hedge funds and some individuals engage in riskier things like derivatives (essentially bets), options, commodities, and sometimes assets that are speculative to achieve higher returns such as bonds from bankrupt companies, junk bonds, real estate, etc.

Gilt edged Bonds, money market, etc. all give low rates because of perceived low risks. From memory, believe the long term on normal bonds is about 1-2 percent normal long term return (real) which is enough for wealth retention but not much room for growth. (rule of 72--72 to 36 years for doubling of investment).

https://www.thesimpledollar.com/where-does-7-come-from-when-it-comes-to-long-term-stock-returns/ and https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042415/what-average-annual-return-sp-500.asp

Collectibles are far more volatile in value as they tend to thrive in loose money--higher inflation and go down significantly during economic downturns with tight money and low inflation. They also represent, like gold and silver, ways to hedge your bets when the economy and government appears shaky in stability as they are easy to conceal, allow one to keep wealth off the books, are not taxed (unless you are in a jurisdiction with a personal property tax) typically until unloaded at market prices, etc. They also represent a chance, like art, to grab money from the nouveau riche when unloaded.

The people that usually suffer the most in investment markets are those that go all in for a particular investment (and that can include using resources to create a business as well) but that can give the highest gain as well. Thus, investment depends on your tolerance for risk and willingness to be a bankrupt pauper in return for the highest possible returns. Most of us are not that risk tolerant.

All one has to do is look at growth stock mutual funds with long track records, many have inceptions in the mid 1970's that are achieving an average of 12-13% interest returns.

https://www.americanfunds.com/individual/investments/fund/agthx - Just one example with a simple search 13.34% averaged annual return since it's inception in 1973. And backing out 3% inflation one arrives at 10% average annual return which doubles your money every 7.2 years.

But I won't venture any farther down this rabbit hole as we are a firearms forum, just wanted to give some perspective of guns as an investment. And it's just not there when comparing to a good mutual fund with a long track record, but they sure are fun to invest in.

Where one can see a huge change in pricing is with legislation.

 

[cjwils]

Collectable guns will go up in value only if people in the future will be willing to pay more. My take is that fewer and fewer young people have any interest is such items, so the value of many collectable guns may have already peaked. Really, how many of today's twenty-somethings do you think will ever care about WW2 era firearms?