Is There Much Appreciation Left?

[BlueHeelerFl]

Collectable guns will go up in value only if people in the future will be willing to pay more. My take is that fewer and fewer young people have any interest is such items, so the value of many collectable guns may have already peaked. Really, how many of today's twenty-somethings do you think will ever care about WW2 era firearms?

I agree with you. Guns being evil are ingrained into the young at school. The only possibility would be if they sparked an interest from the WW2 Video games.

 

[GunnyUSMC]

Everyone missed the boat on surplus guns, they should have paid attention to when Gunny bought his, that was the time to invest with the most upward mobility. I'm hazarding a guess here a little bit but the picture Gunny shows of his military surplus it looks like most of those were bought when they were sold propped up in 55 gallon drum. And judging by his ammo can closet he knew they were just long clubs with out adequate ammo.

Personally, I'm not out of the market of surplus guns, but it will be for both collecting and investment. And I will be sure to keep my eye out for some surplus ammo at gun shows, or internet sites.

I'm not that old. I started buying in the 80's, but only a few. Most of the surplus guns I have , I bought in the last 25 years.
I missed the boat on the four for $100 plus free bayonets on Turkish Mausers. I started buying them when they were selling for $40, most of the 39 Turkish rifles I have I bought around the $100 to $150 range.
But I have always been a hunter for a deal. A few years ago I stopped in at Dan's Ammo in PA. and picked up a crate of Hex Mosins for $1700. I also picked up five K31's for $500. Over the years I have gotten some pretty good deals, like the time I picked up a none import marked 1940 Tula Russian TT33 for $250 out the door. At the time it was worth $800. Today they go for $1500 plus.
The key to buying surplus guns is to know what you are buying and never over pay. Also I never buy surplus guns as an investment. They are items I enjoy and increase in value the longer I keep them.

 

[<*(((><]

I'm not that old. I started buying in the 80's, but only a few. Most of the surplus guns I have , I bought in the last 25 years.
I missed the boat on the four for $100 plus free bayonets on Turkish Mausers. I started buying them when they were selling for $40, most of the 39 Turkish rifles I have I bought around the $100 to $150 range.
But I have always been a hunter for a deal. A few years ago I stopped in at Dan's Ammo in PA. and picked up a crate of Hex Mosins for $1700. I also picked up five K31's for $500. Over the years I have gotten some pretty good deals, like the time I picked up a none import marked 1940 Tula Russian TT33 for $250 out the door. At the time it was worth $800. Today they go for $1500 plus.
The key to buying surplus guns is to know what you are buying and never over pay. Also I never buy surplus guns as an investment. They are items I enjoy and increase in value the longer I keep them.

It's nice to see them in the hands of someone who appreciates them for what they are. I remember your thread talking on your crate of Hex Mosins, that was a good deal for sure. And the K31's have more than doubled in value.

 

[AlexanderA]

I would suggest picking a collecting theme and then buying what you like within that theme. Do not buy with "investment" as the prime consideration. A high-quality collection will always go up in value, but a random hodgepodge accumulation probably will not. The discipline of a themed collection has the side benefit of making you an expert in that field, and you are more likely to pick iconic, high-quality items that will appreciate.

 

[GunnyUSMC]

I just agreed to buy a Turkish Brno Mauser for $200. Good deals are still out there.

 

[luzyfuerza]

I bought an M44 for $75 and a case of surplus ammo. Shot it, realized that Mosin accuracy really was lousy, and dumped it.

Bought a Yugo SKS unfired new in the cosmoline for $100. Bought a case or two of cheap surplus ammo, cleaned it up, refinished the new but almost unsanded stock, shot it, played with the funky grenade cutoff and sights, but realized it was too heavy and too inaccurate. Dumped it.

Bought 3 k31s for $125 each. These, of course, shot well! The fine design and cachet of knowing the soldier to whom they were issued was cool. I bought a bunch of GP-11 and loaded for them, and had fun initially. Interest waned, and in a fit of caliber consolidation I sold them all.

I still have my Garands and M1 Carbines. But the European stuff never really set my Jell-O.

I think that most Americans, unless they are dedicated collectors, don't really take to the stuff that was imported to the US in large quantities unless the guns are functional, useful for field or bench use, prices are really cheap, and surplus ammo is widely available. If those factors aren't there, then prices can't go up that much.

I doubt that Mosin, SKS, and K31 prices will go up much faster than general inflation in the future. Unless there's a ban of some kind, of course .

 

[lionking]

Well unless you bought a warehouse full of surplus guns you aren't going to get rich when they go up in price but for those that bought a crate of 5 Yugo SKS 10 years ago for $100 each it will pay for a new AC unit if yours takes a dive.

BTW though I just looked at Mosin on gunbroker last night, average price is $350 to $400 plus shipping plus transfer fees, which closes in at around $500 for a run of the mill mosin or maybe a hex.

The cool thing though is you can shoot and years latter still make a profit off it usually. Although the certified CMP collector grade Garands are commanding a lot more than when they were in the mid 2000's when all those Greek returns came in.

 

[SamT1]

The cool thing though is you can shoot and years latter still make a profit off it usually. Although the certified CMP collector grade Garands are commanding a lot more than when they were in the mid 2000's when all those Greek returns came in.

That’s an excellent point about milsurps in general. Take an old Winchester out and put a little ding on it and you may never get the value back up.

I have a bubbaed mosin and I could probably get my money back out of it still! Of course I bubbaed it Since it was a junker and now it hangs with modern hunting rifles.

 

[Shanghai McCoy]

Garands do seem pretty expensive based on what they are offered for on GB. I was looking to see what I should ask for the two I'm thinking of selling but dang, they sure went up from when I got them in the 90's ...

 

[Speedo66]

How many of the same gun turn you from a collector to an investor? When I see people say they have 20, 30, 40 I wonder.

 

[P5 Guy]

I bought a Soviet SKS for almost twice what the Chinese one were selling for.
Wondering if it is now worth twice as much as a Norinco? Certainly worth more than a Yugo.
This was in 1992.

 

[Shanghai McCoy]

Certainly worth more than a Yugo.

SKS or the car..?

 

[P5 Guy]

Either.

 

[WestKentucky]

SKS or the car..?

I would trade the average car for a rifle in good shape any day.

 

[bassjam]

Anyone that’s looking to invest in guns to fund their retirement is looking in the wrong place, as others have pointed out they are a horrible investment compared to the stock market. At best, even the Python has only increased in value at something like a 5% yearly rate, which isn’t that great when you figure 3% of that is taken up by inflation.

On the other hand, if you’re looking for a hobby where your equipment isn’t going to drastically depreciate, guns start to make more sense. Cars, boats, motorcycles, archery, fishing, music, video games, golf, basically all of the equipment you need to do those things depreciates rapidly and you are going to lose a lot of money. At least guns retain most of their value.

 

[boom boom]

I bought a Soviet SKS for almost twice what the Chinese one were selling for.
Wondering if it is now worth twice as much as a Norinco? Certainly worth more than a Yugo.

$450-600 for average condition ruski sks is the asking price on auction websites. A bit less for Chinese say 350-500 posted. Smaller SKS makers, whatever they can get from collectors.

 

[boom boom]

In a well managed portfolio, one is best served by a mix of investments unless you can accurately predict the future. People's risk profiles are different and some embrace the idea of maximization of returns and accept more risk to get it. Others are ultra conservative (money in a mattress for example) and stress wealth retention with low risk. Others are in the middle and risk profiles change as we get older as well with different purposes.

One way to manage risk is by having different asset classes-bonds, stocks including counter cyclical, cyclical, and growth, real property, assets that rise with inflation like collectables, stores of wealth like gold, silver, gems, (perhaps even food). You will not get the highest return in a given period but you won't be wiped out by market/societal changes either.

Firearms that are shooter grade, as bassjam notes and as he also notes do not rapidly depreciate in value like a lot of things do such as boats, vehicles, sporting goods equipment, etc. Instead, these act more like a store of value and a partial hedge for bad times like gold and silver. Unsettled times increase demand for these types of assets.

 

[Speedo66]

First tier collector cars seem to be doing well if auction prices are to be believed. Certain ones follow the life cycle of the age of the collector, i.e., guys who came of age in the 50's like '50's cars, but prices drop as the collector pool ages or dies off.

Other cars seemingly have no limit, i.e., certain Ferrari's and others of that ilk. Anyone here sitting on a 1962 Ferrari 250 GTO? $18K new in '62, one last sold in June of this year for $70 million.

 

[Legionnaire]

Is There Much Appreciation Left?
Well, I don't know about you, but I appreciate them!

 

[boom boom]

First tier collector cars seem to be doing well if auction prices are to be believed. Certain ones follow the life cycle of the age of the collector, i.e., guys who came of age in the 50's like '50's cars, but prices drop as the collector pool ages or dies off.

Other cars seemingly have no limit, i.e., certain Ferrari's and others of that ilk. Anyone here sitting on a 1962 Ferrari 250 GTO? $18K new in '62, one last sold in June of this year for $70 million.

A lot of folks with money to burn park their money short term in things like high end collectibles for tax reasons and some have money that they would rather not explain the source or it is money earned off the books and they also can buy collectibles via shell corps to disguise the source of the money. Then, when they sell the collectible, the cash has been cleansed.

 

[lionking]

Someone mentioned music actually I play guitar and desired guitars can hold and increase their value rather well especially Fender and Gibson depending on the model and run of a series. Guns and guitars are two things you can use and still sell later for what you paid for if not more depending you take care of them.

But for flipping to make money in shorter terms, better off in real estate or buying cars and fixing them yourself if you are a mechanic. I have a couple friends that are car techs, on their off time they buy cars, fix the repairs themselves and flip the car.

 

[theotherwaldo]

I tried collecting stamps but got bored.
I tried collecting cars but ran out of room
Now I collect guns.
If you buy them at or near the bottom of their inverse bell curve of valuation then they will appreciate a bit.
Most people won't live long enough to see a brand new gun appreciate noticeably.

 

[CapnMac]

"Guns" are not an investment.
A money market earning 8-10% is an investment.
A stock portfolio earning from 5-17% is an investment.

Guns are guns.

But, it's tricky. When we look at the ads from the 60s, even the 80s, we typically do not factor inflation into that comparison. We humans tend to be bad about that as a rule (and I'm no better, other than having learned the hard way one to many time).

About '85, I bought a very sweet, hardly used Python for $400. Probably saved $50-75 off a middle of the road price. For perspective, I was earning, back then, a decent sort of wage, about $290 a week gross. $400 was about a month's rent and bills. After 2008 happened, when I sold that Python in 2010, it netted me a very nice $1200. Or, about two weeks' wages, had I been employed. About two months' mortgage payments (but only because I bought really well; average rents were near $800/mo at the time). So, really, there was not much appreciation in value. Basically, it was worth a couple weeks' wages when I bought it, and nearly the same when I sold it.
My retirement fund (until 2008 ate it) had increased in value at nearly 19% in a similar span. That's appreciation.

Shoot because you love it and want to. Own interesting firearms because they interest you. Money--work that like a sharecropping stepchild.

 

[Llama Bob]

Most of the surplus pricing is hording. As the baby boomers die you can expect prices and interest to fall. There are hundreds of thousands if not millions of many models.

 

[P5 Guy]

$450-600 for average condition ruski sks is the asking price on auction websites. A bit less for Chinese say 350-500 posted. Smaller SKS makers, whatever they can get from collectors.

This was in 1992. When one local gun store had Chinese SKS $79.00 to two for $150.