Run on ammo free market?

[JRWhit]

I'm nearly beside myself that there are still people camping outside of stores waiting for deliveries. At this point I really don't understand it. The thing that really kicked this all off was the proposition of an Assault rifle ban, there words not mine. So why the run on 22lr? That's like proposing a ban on sports cars and suddenly everyone rushes to buy up all the pickup trucks they can find.

At any rate, to get to the point of this, I see people buying every box they see, watch the price go up, the shelves stay empty, and when someone like me makes mention of it, it gets called free market principals.
The standard principal of free market is supply vs demand.
So what do you call it when a select few create an artificial demand like this one. I would think it to be more of a manipulation of the market rather simple supply vs demand.
Manipulation of the market because; Look at the prices on line. When you have such a large number of consumers creating a retail shortage in order to profit on a private sale, I would think of that as manipulating a market.
The other driving force on this artificial shortage are the stockpile consumers that regardless of there inventory will continue to buy whatever they come across. Would that count as true demand or again an artificial one. The product is not being used it is being stockpiled. I would call the shortage artificial because the demand is being soaked up by a few based on a whim, and not from the true use of the product.
My point in this is that it is the shooting community that seems to be hurting the shooting community the most at this point in time based on an artificial demand leading to an artificial shortage.
Before it gets thrown out there, I'm not just sore because i can't find ammo for myself. I have what I shoot for every gun I shoot. But you have to admit, when you walk through the ammo isle in WM or other retailers and the shelves are still empty, it's starting to get a little embarrassing that the panics still going on.
Hoping this will stir a conversation, and not a hit and run. Thoughts, Opinions?

 

[JRWhit]

Just to try to keep it honest, I will admit that if i were to come across three bricks of 22lr sitting lonely on a shelf, I would have an incredibly hard time not buying all three.

 

[whughett]

For what price, pawn shop near me was asking $100+ for bulk Federal 550's.
Ft. Meyer gun show last May same ting, several dealers had 22's for those same prices.

 

[ID-shooting]

This is sure to start a debate, then shortly after, thread closure LOL

You have three groups causing the perceived "shortage." Horders, scalpers, thieves.

I am a horder, not sure when it started, but the fact I have ~6000 .22lr, ~2000 each 5.56, 9mm, 45acp, and .38/357 on hand denotes me as such. Heck, I bought more yesterday just because I saw some on the shelf. I have not once bought a single round at inflated prices. I just keep my eyes open and have a card with a pre-set balance just for ammo purchases to help limit what I do buy. My thoughts, or at least what I tell the wife, is that I want a base level of stock, then buy what I actually shoot and rotate inventory. I.E, base is 2000 rounds of 5.56. Plan going to the range? Go buy 200 rounds, swap new out with oldest then shoot just those 200 and so on.

Then you have the scalpers. These are the guys lined up at Wally World at 6am with their wives, friends, brothers, cousins to buy up the whole inventory with the purpose of reselling at profit. They could be small-time guys at the gunshow or online, or even brick-and-morter shops.

Lastly, you have the thieves. Many times these are the scalpers but worse. You usually see them with display signs that read "get it before it's banned" or the funny one I saw in a LGS the other day referring to his shelf of xm855 and PMC 62gr LAP ammo "Armor Priecing - THIS IS SURE TO BE BANNED!" selling them at a buck each. Some of them have even taking to holding back on their inventory to make the shelves look empty to drive the panic and support the grossly inflated prices.

Some will say it is just "free Market" and since I studied medicine in school instead of economics they could be right. I do believe we are our own worst enemy in supporting the later two groups and if/when this returns to normal, I plan to remember the dealers/resellers/opportunists and hope they get the flogging they so richly deserve.

 

[3212]

Due to increased population and increased crime in my neighborhood,I have taken home defense seriously.I shopped for 12 GA. 00 buckshot and found 1 box of 5 shells at a WM.

 

[lilguy]

I can buy anything I want in the Chicago suburbs I live in. Cabelas is getting a bit better but the local shops sell cases now at reasonable prices. In the spring 9mm was 2 box limit only to range customers, now case lots no limit. 308 now in case lots for 60-70 cents a round instead of a buck 25-50 2 box limit. No one standing in line around me, seems the locals are getting better supplies than big box outlets. Online still hit and miss though.

 

[MattShlock]

This started in late July 2012 with the mass shooting in Aurora at a movie theater.

It was followed by the October declaration by President Obama that he'd initiate a new, expanded, AWB in the debates and act anyway if Congress didn't.

Then anti-gun legislators, remarkably including Obama himself, were reelected in November and this propelled the run on guns and ammo further.

Then in December the Sandy Hook shooting was exploited by the Left, with the Governor of New York and the President in a race for headlines to propose the most draconian anti-gun laws that would have had no effect on the shooting itself, but that's the "progressives." The new AWB legislation included another high cap mag ban and de facto national registration of all firearms.

Since then the President has signed two sets of gun-control Executive Orders, the first about the same time that they let resign or reassigned some BATFE administrators for illegally planting thousands of "assault rifles" traceable to American border-state gun shops into the hands of brutal Mexican drug cartels. And don't forget his injecting the entire nation with racism based on the local Florida shooting case whose name must not be mentioned.

The run on guns and ammo is not the result of anything (including hoarders, scalpers, thieves, dealers, sellers nor opportunists) but upon the recognition by Americans of the inexorable attack on our 2nd Amendment rights by a Left that is on the double-quick march. Too many dollars chasing too few goods is the result of this political environment which has institutionalized the effort to disarm We The People, plain and simple. And we're afraid.

Everything else (low supply, high demand and prices) follows from the constant politicization of tragic events by the Left. That and the incremental as well as shameless deprivation of our civil rights by them! All the buyers see it. Yet some obviously still blame the wrong crowd. Defensive reactions tells me they feel guilty of something, or should, but generally they are just angry folk who are so short sighted they can't (or won't) look beyond the person they are literally handing their cash to or those who planned better, or make a better effort than they do, to acquire what they want.

Understand this: the "blame-America-first" bureaucrats who cause all this still haven't relented. So why would the current run get much better unless supply has met or surpassed short term demand?

.22 particularly?

• It was already the most popular ammo in the country before 2008.
• You can buy alot of it comparatively cheaply.
• It doesn't take up much room relatively speaking.
• It's better than nothing.
• And who can afford to shoot centerfire much anymore even if you are lucky enough to be one of those still gainfully employed -- for now.

 

[Speedo66]

From what I read here on THR, the "shortage" differs geographically. Some report ammo out the wazoo, others report none.

Be interesting to map where the surpluses and shortages are, see if it's determinable what factors into it, i.e., local custom, north vs. south, city vs. rural, etc., or perhaps more intangible reasons.

 

[Midwest]

This is sure to start a debate, then shortly after, thread closure LOL

And before that happens (thread getting locked) let me add my two cents here.

I think the all gun owners in America need to pick a day to wait in line for the ammo before the scalpers get there. This could be organized through the local gun forums. Lets say 5 people from a PA gun forum all agree to wait in line at one Walmart, another 5 agree to wait in line at another Walmart early before the scalpers get there and do this from town to town and store by store and do this in every state throughout the country.

Call it "Take Back Ammo Day' ...if we do this enough, and are pretty diligent and organized ...the only thing that will be in short supply after awhile... are these threads...and not the ammo.

 

[Apuuli]

An interesting ramification of the shortage that seems to be rarely brought up is the limitation this puts on new firearm purchases. I imagine many people are going to hesitate before buying a gun of a new caliber simply because they don't have the stockpile of the ammunition at home and can't find it in the stores.

This .22lr shortage has hit me hard because I recently got my first .22lr gun (my first gun was a .22mag and subsequent guns went up in caliber), a .22 revolver, and I've only been able to use the .22mag cylinder because I can't find .22lr anywhere! I'd been looking forward to shooting cheap, plentiful, and quiet .22 ammo, but no such luck this year.

 

[barnetmill]

On the .22 ammo foreign manufactures are now gearing up for the american market. Our club will see if we can do a big order via the CMP. .22 lr is more common than it was, but it is still hard find. I am running out for our 900 bullseye matches. .22 ammo will be in short supply for a long time since people like me for future shortages will stock up. I would like to have 10,000 on hand instead of 2-3,000 that I had prior to this idiocy where people that do not routinely shoot a lot are stocking up for Armageddon.
7.62x39 last time I checked was less than 30 cents a round delivered for russian steel case. This my is caliber for Zombies.

 

[goon]

I let the last couple boxes of .22 I saw on the rack a Walmart there... because there was a three box limit and I was buying something else. I'd have probably bought them just because if I could have. It would have only been another $7, and it's worth that much to me to be able to shoot more without dipping into the ammo I have set aside for shooting.
The LGS finally got some .22LR in the other day. They're pricing it at $44 a brick and they still have to hold most of it back and enforce a one brick limit to keep a hoarder or flipper from buying them out.

I'm not a contestant at that price. I still have over 1,500 rounds of .22 LR set aside for shooting and am only using a box at a time, so that will last me awhile. But as long as other people are contestants at that price, that's what it's going to cost to buy new .22LR. It won't drop until .22 ammo starts getting dusty on the shelves again.

Although I'm not really feeling the .22 panic right now, I do kick myself for not taking half a paycheck and buying a bunch of Federal Automatch or something with it before this started. Even if I'd thought to buy 5,000 rounds in regular bulk packs, I could have sold half of it and paid for the other half, basically giving myself 2,500 free rounds of .22 LR.
As it is though, mixing in some goofing off with some reloads and trying to make my shooting practice more quality than quantity is how I'm dealing with things.
Strangely enough, I have acquired a little bit of 9mm at reasonable prices. I'm not too worried about that because I can load for it, but it's good to have a couple hundred rounds of factory ammo and especially a couple boxes of defensive ammo on hand. But .22... that I can't load for. Kind of makes me wish I'd picked up that .32 H&R Magnum Marlin 1894 Cowboy II a few years back because with cast bullets, it almost would have been like a reloadable .22. I knew that leaving that rifle on the used rack was a freaking mistake as soon as I left the store!

 

[Vonderek]

I would call it a market bubble. Like Dutch tulips, 1990's tech stocks, or real estate in the 2000's. A lot of people buying it now at insane prices to stock up or resell will be gnashing their teeth when the market bubble bursts.

 

[22-rimfire]

Although I'm not really feeling the .22 panic right now, I do kick myself for not taking half a paycheck and buying a bunch of Federal Automatch or something with it before this started. Even if I'd thought to buy 5,000 rounds in regular bulk packs, I could have sold half of it and paid for the other half, basically giving myself 2,500 free rounds of .22 LR.

That's called scalping. It is also considered capitalism. Good? Bad?

If you shoot much 22LR at all and have tried without success to buy some at your local retailer a couple of times, it results a mind set of buying at least 2x as much as you normally would assuming the price is right the next time you find it. Do this with thousands of customers and you have shortage. After you have your 2x cache, you decide you want to make 4x simply because you don't want to go to a retailer and not be able to buy 22 ammunition at normal pricing when you feel like it.

So the person who typically keeps about 500 rounds or a bulk pack at their home for shooting all of a sudden has 2000 rounds at least. Let's go for 4K or 10K.... afterall, 5K is a case.

The lines at Walmart bother me. The Walmart manager told me there are people waiting every day at 7:00 AM for 22 ammo. He said they get it in and it's gone within a hour. Start the same process the next day..... with mostly the same group of people... every day.... It's like buying sudafed for meth cookers (smurfing).

JRWhit said...So what do you call it when a select few create an artificial demand like this one. I would think it to be more of a manipulation of the market rather simple supply vs demand.

Manipulation of the market because; Look at the prices on line. When you have such a large number of consumers creating a retail shortage in order to profit on a private sale, I would think of that as manipulating a market.

It is a manipulation of the market. If the morality and ethics police (govt) wanted to, they could stop it with license enforcement and tax collection. But it is small potatoes and takes a lot of manpower and effort.

I don't support such a thing. It would become a 2A issue and freedom.

So we make do with grabbing a bit here and there and that affects how much you're willing to shoot and how much of a cache is acceptable to you.

 

[j1]

Hang onto those damned 22's till they turn green.

 

[medalguy]

Yep it's a bubble. Like all bubbles, it will eventually pop. When that happens, anyone who has a large quantity of ammo they are selling for greatly inflated prices will lose some money. How much depends on the quantity of ammo they have. I don't hoard, I reload. And I have enough .22 on hand thanks to the CMP target ammo they sold last year to hold me for probably ten years. That's not hoarding, that's just smart buying at the right time. And no, none of it is for sale, although I have probably given away a case or more to kids around here who can't find ammo. Time will let all this settle out. Be patient.

 

[AlexanderA]

A "free market" is one that operates without external constraints. People set prices based on supply and demand, with all the parties having full knowledge of the relevant facts, and no party being under duress to buy or sell. This is the theory. In reality, all markets (at least in the developed world) are regulated to a greater or lesser extent, and therefore are not "free." The gun/ammo market is regulated more than most. As soon as there's a rumor of further regulation, the market tends to panic. Naturally, some people jump in to take advantage of this situation. That may be "capitalism," but it's not a "free market." I can't say whether this is good or bad. There are actually many aspects of capitalism (such as the tendency toward monopolies) that are anti-free-market.

 

[leprechaun50]

Almost two years ago .22 was getting scarce around here. The store my wife managed at that time only sold small amounts of ammo as a conveniance for their customers. The store stocked shelves in the morning, and if the .22's or .22-250's, and .357's hadn't sold by closeing, she would buy them for me. (Got to love that woman!) I am well stocked with factory loads now, and I reload .45, .38spcl, and .357 and have components laid by, so I am fortunately well supplied.

 

[kwguy]

The run on guns and ammo is not the result of anything (including hoarders, scalpers, thieves, dealers, sellers nor opportunists) but upon the recognition by Americans of the inexorable attack on our 2nd Amendment rights by a Left that is on the double-quick march. Too many dollars chasing too few goods is the result of this political environment which has institutionalized the effort to disarm We The People, plain and simple. And we're afraid.

That pretty much gets right to the point. The root cause is this ^^^. Everything else is simply a symptom of the actual disease.

 

[goon]

That's called scalping. It is also considered capitalism. Good? Bad?

It would be scalping if I went to Walmart and bought a brick of Thunderbolts for $22.99 a brick, then got on this forum and offered to sell it to you for $44? Keep that $44 price in mind... because it will come up in my reply again.

If I have the foresight to buy at a low price and sell at a high price, that's just a good business decision.

When I started buying 7.62x51, I was buying Portuguese at $139/1000 rounds. It came in sealed vinyl battlepacks.
When I sold the last sealed 200 round pack of that stuff, I got $98 for it.
Had I not sold at the fair market value, I would have been the one getting taken advantage of. I could have logged on here and told you guys that I'd just sold $100 worth of shiny excellent Portuguese surplus ammo for $30... and you all would have thought I was an idiot. No one would have given me a prize or a cookie for my sacrifice.
FWIW, the guy who bought that ammo from me was very happy with his purchase, especially when we cut the vinyl pack open and found bright, clean ammunition inside.
And I hope he learned his lesson and bought some ammo and was able to ride this panic out.

My brother sold four bulk packs of .22LR to a guy a couple months ago when there was no ammo to be had at all. My brother almost doubled his money on the .22 he sold that guy, but the buyer was ecstatic to get some .22 ammo when he thought there was none available anywhere. He thanked my brother sincerely for the help. He also didn't feel he was being taken advantage of. He felt that my brother did him a favor and he did. The ammo that my brother sold that guy for $25 per 550 round pack was going for $60 online and would cost my brother much more than $25 to replace today. Who's the good guy in that scenario, and who is the bad guy?

In any case, when prices come down, we'll all have choices to make.
Do we build up our own mini-stockpiles of a few months worth of ammo or not? Will you buy a case of .22LR when it's more affordable?

I'm sorry you don't like lines at Walmart.
But people who had a few bricks of .22LR on hand haven't had to stand in line at Walmart to be able to keep some level of shooting proficiency.
Still, you could go in every day at 7 AM and buy your allotment of .22LR, then sell it on the open market for what you paid for it. By doing that, you'd ease some of the pressure on your local .22 market. Maybe if you did that every day for a month you could discourage scalpers and drive the price down.

Or if you'd care to make the drive to the LGS in my area of central PA tomorrow, you could buy a brick of CCI standard velocity for $44 a brick without standing in line. Let me know if you plan to do that. I'll get you the manager's contact info so you can call him and ask him to hold a brick for you. I suspect that it could be sold out soon if you don't do that (in spite of their efforts to keep some in stock).

 

[Queen_of_Thunder]

Politics caused this. With anti gun laws both propsed and passed plus statements of ultimate goals my guess is some 5 million new shooters joined us at the end of last year and the start of this year.

Add to that the ever increasing numbers going for their conceal carry license before this started and you have 1 of many reasons for this shortage. Another reason was the manufactures got caught like the rest of us with the result of having to recover from a deficit. Another reason was new businesses opening up to serve the demand and this caused the ammo supply pie to be cut into ever smaller slices. Then you have the 22lr AR's where one is dumping huge amounts of ammo downrange vs revolvers or other firearms that held fewer rounds. Another reason for the 22lr shortage is its cheaper to shootthan centerfire ammo.Example CCI 22lr @ 8 cents a round vs. WWB 45acp @ 50 cents a round. Even with poor math skills one can figure that one out.


Of course people like myself who got caught short swore it would never happen again to us so we hit the stores. We waited in line just for the chance to buy ammo knowing full well that when they let you in you may or may not get that one box of ammo you needed. A lot of harsh talking was posted on this forum directed at those who waited in line but if you didn't take those measures one thing was for sure, you would have zero chance at any ammo.

My last matches were in January and of those I stopped half way through to consvere ammo. Since then I haven't shot a single USPSA or IPSC match let alone any rifle matches. As for shotgun I've shot 3 since the first of the year. Really bad when you consider I was spending 4 days a week at the range. Lack of range time due to lack of ammo and high prices has had a severe impact on my skill level.

 

[351 WINCHESTER]

Yesterday my lgs had Fiocchi for $12. per 50. No thanks.

 

[coloradokevin]

I'm waiting for the bubble to burst, and as others have already said, it surely will eventually.

For me, I have a decent stock of .22lr ammo on hand (probably ten years worth or more in my case as well). But, I'm also not selling, and it's there just so I don't have to hunt for it when I need it in the future. I also passed on the last few boxes of .22lr ammo I saw on store shelves.

People who are buying for the resale market are probably going to get burned pretty soon. People who are buying for personal use (and are doing so at normal market prices) don't have anything to worry about in that regard. I have no more ammo on hand than I plan to use for myself and my family in the future! Occasionally I give a box to a friend in need, but I'm not reselling on the internet, tempting as that may be at times.

 

[Liberty1776]

I think the nice thing about all this is that most of us have more ammo than we can shoot up, so all we need to do is wait this out. I haven't bought .22 LR for almost a year, but I found a great price on Wolf .223 at a small shop and bought 10 boxes or so...because it was normal price.

 

[beatledog7]

Artificial demand?

Demand is often defined as a combination of the desire to have a thing and the ability to pay the asking price. Whether that demand is translated into a sale depends on whether the "buyer" feels less pain from surrendering the money than he feels from not having the item. If the money, representing something else he could buy, is worth more to him than the thing, he doesn't buy.

How can that be artificial? It can be influenced by many things--including politics--but it's determined in the end by people on the buying end. As long as they are buying ammo, which is for almost everyone a non-essentail, they have no basis for complaining that prices are too high. By definition, it is not--if it were, the ammo would remain unsold.

If people stop buying the prices eventually come down.

Artificial demand would consist only of a thing which people are coerced to buy even though they do not want the thing at any price. There are, thus far, few real examples of that.