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Yes, like I said in another post, I kind of have made a hobby since grad of following trends - economic, societal, political... anything that trends is interesting to observe and try to predict. Even lotto numbers, which are theoretically random, will tend to trend in the long run. Don't take that to mean I dabble in predictive analytics, it isn't and I don't, a trend isn't typically predictive.
I've been looking at the opposing reaction in the shortages. Typically, when one commodity is experiencing a glut, the opposing complimentary commodity is experiencing a drought. Think about the trend a few decades back towards small pocket autos in sub-calibers - the Seecamp Craze. That trend resulted in bargain prices for large-frame autos (1911's and Hi-Powers) as the market adjusted to a new consumer demand: sub-pocket .32 autos. At that time, prices for Model 10, 15, 19, 29 etc. Smiths and the few I/V-frame Colts still being produced weren't really effected - since no one ever considered a K/L/N-frame S&W or a Colt's Python/Anaconda a "pocket carry" revolver, they aren't an opposing complimentary commodity - but prices for J-frame/D-frame and equivalent copies did go up. Likewise, new competitors entered the .25/.32/.380 market and wiped out the high-dollar products that started the craze. Disappointed bargain shoppers bad-mouthed the trend generally and it peter'd out. Demand leads to price inflation leads to scarcity leads to bust; meanwhile, on the opposite side of the spectrum, lack of demand leads to inventory glut leads to price deflation leads to higher demand... you get the drift.
I have not seen a definitive commodity-based trend in this recent market turmoil. There is NO opposing complimentary commodity to ammunition. There "appears" to be NO preference or favored platform of firearm. As one LGS owner told me months ago, "...they're buying anything with a trigger..." speaking of the new gun-buyers flooding his shop. This market isn't trending anywhere but towards central control, lead by mandate of a ruling group, guerilla economics and planned management by a central authority of every resource of production, especially labor. That is the only identifiable trend, thus far.
[NB: edited because I really badly typoed most of that.
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