It's early but not looking to good

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Exit polls in 2000 were waaaay off. Nothing to see here. Move on. .org.

- Gabe
 
I've found this site interesting in the run-up to the election.

www.realclearpolitics.com

They aren't "statistically pure", but I've enjoyed watching the ebbs and flows...you can get some sense from poll-over-poll trends...but their internals change so even that isn't completely reliable.

Bottom line, I'm sensing that sentiment coming into the election under-reports Bush support in the preliminary polls...what folks actually do in the ballot box...if they show up...I'm not convinced we'll know a winner before midnight...Hawaii of all places is turning into a "swing state".

Let's hope it's decided in the ballot booths and not from the bench this time...

Stay safe,

CZ52'
 
There ought to be a moratorium on exit polls. I really do think that the network coverage has a deleterious effect on elections, and it just pisses me off. These sanctimonious media SOBs never stop trying to manipulate the public -- if you don't think they do, then you've never seen how they operate close-up. The few times I had firsthand knowledge of something they reported on, what they reported bore NO resemblance to the reality, up to and including gross out-of-context quoting and cherry-picking quotes to back their particular slant.

The media are whores. If anyone doubts that, they haven't a clue (look, journalism was one of my majors -- trust me, they're whores).

edit: let me correct myself. They are not whores. Whores have more integrity -- at least they are honest about the services they provide and the cost.
 
This is too nerve wracking. I'm gonna go grab a cold one, and I'll be in Strategies and Tactics if anyone needs me.
 
if florida blows it again don't blame the whole state. the majority(not all) of the people in south fla. can't read english much less vote correctly. i know, i lived in miami for 36 years before moving up here to the old fla.
 
The exit polls are tightening. At this point in 2000 Gore had a 4 pt lead in Florida. Kerry now has a 1 point lead. Similar trends in other states. Remember, Repubs draw better in the evening when the working folks get home. Dems make their best numbers early, for reasons I won't voice, and this time Kerry didn't make the numbers one would think needed.

I stick by what I've said: Bush handily in the popular vote. The EC is anybodies guess.
 
Does anybody know the methodology of the exit polls? The sample size? The demographics? Without this info, those polls are meaningless.

Go vote regardless of what the exit polls say, especially those of you with critical Senate and Congressional races (Coors in Colorado!)
 
Posted by craig: ... if florida blows it again don't blame the whole state. the majority(not all) of the people in south fla. can't read english much less vote correctly. i know, i lived in miami for 36 years before moving up here to the old fla ...
My in-laws are from Spain so they communicate with a lot of hispanics and they were shocked to learn that a lot of hispanics are voting for Kerry because "Demoncrates" sounds like they are "for democracy" and the Republicans are represented by the color red which in their eyes stands for communism.
 
I've always wondered who came up with the red\blue nonsense. Most military maps I've seen in books or TV shows and movies show the good guys in blue and the bad guys in red. Maybe I'm just paranoid but it seems to me to say Repubs = Bad guys.
 
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