That was nuts and I remember those days ... the ebay magazine sales frenzy. High caps for everything were like gold. I had a ton of Mecgar M9 high caps, boxes of them, from my competition days ... good gosh I made a mint on those.
I must have missed that one. People bought ARs on credit when Obama was elected ... and are still paying for them? Wait, wut? He was elected in what, 2008? They're srill paying for ARs 13 years later? Are you sure? That had to be very few, a very small percentage. Never heard of that one before but you're talking about a ban type issue. You're kinda drifting off base there aren't you friend?
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There you go with the ban stuff again. You might as well have used the run on toilet paper when Covid hit or the run on Canadian banks when the truckers' money was locked down or the run on gas when OPEC cut us off in the 70s under Carter. Better yet, incandescent light bulbs, creosote preservatives, codine laced Jaegermeister and cocaine laced Coca-Cola. Panty hose. Zima. Prohibition, they took our dang liquor and spirits! ..... here's a better one for you Jim. When FDR effectively banned gold from private ownership in the U.S. in 1933 ... what happened? How did that turn out? Who won in the end and who benefitted when Ford brought it back in 1977?
Bans are different things than supply shortages.
There is a primer shortage right now because of demand ... supply cannot keep up. Three reasons.
1 - Biden cut off imports.
2 - Demand for loaded ammo has more than quadrupled.
3 - The number of reloaders in this country has tripled in a very short period of time. (Vista Outdoors says it has more than tripled based upon their numbers, some say it has more than quadrupled based upon reported industry gross sales.) Plus, we're doing it better and faster with more progressives and automatics in use today than ever before.
In order to keep-up, primer manufacturers added extra shifts, then there were staffing issues then material supply issues then .... well, you get the point. Never has there been a ban on primers. Your ban comparisons are not apropos imho. It's apples and oranges ... one is non pertinent to the other.
Primers, and ammo for that matter, are the new precious metals. Is it a speculative market? Absolutely and it rolls with the tide of commodity markets. Everything that it takes to produce ammo, on whatever scale, is more expensive. Price of copper and brass and tin and zinc? Cost of lead? Cost of the chemicals to make primers? Cost of labor? Etc., etc., etc. ....
Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.
Are any of us talking about doing it on an investor level? Treat primers like gold or silver? Use primers to pay our bills one day?
No. No. No. No.
Are some of us saying a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush?
YES! Ab-so-lootley. Darn right. Get it now while the gettin' is good during this little reprieve or, better yet, play it like the commodities market. Bet it sort or long. If you think prices will drop to $80 per 1000 then do it, wait a couple of years, lewrn to code or carve in the meantime (we call it whittlin' down here) ... $60 per 1000, go for it (good luck) ... or if you think prices are going up (they always do) then invest now for the future.
I did in 2008. Between 2008-2016 I bought more than 100k primers. I still literally had over 90k primers when the Covid scam hit and the Floyd tragedy happened and the riots began. It was a good investment when everyone told me I was nuts between 2008-2016. I'm down under 40k now. (Everyone has seen the pictures over the years - I may have to post some again in a timeline for the OP so he can relate.)
Inflation is over 10% right now ... more for reloading components obviously. Your money is worth less. That stands-to-reason that if you think you are still going-to-be handloading in 2025 (that year is significant for a reason btw) then the wise move, the prudent move, is to buy primers now at $100 a brick (sic: 1000 ct) versus waiting and hoping the price drops between now and then because, regardless of what the price of primers is three or four years from now, chances are with a devalued dollar and the rate of inflation it's a break-even proposition at best and .... why wait and hope and pray when we're talking a few hundred dollars here and there?
It doesn't make sense.
If this were a ban we'd be talking about astronomical prices for primers and we'd all be looking for homemade remedies. Some already are.
Also, there is supposed to be another primer manufacturer going-online in 2023 (somewhere in Texas) that is going to eventually be able to turn-out a half a million primers a day. We shall see.
If there is a major war in Europe ... primers will double or triple in price. That's not speculation. Therefore, in addition to everything affecting the supply mentioned above ... politics is also going to play a major role for the foreseeable future unfortunately.
Primers are such an interesting commodity to watch. Honestly, that we are still managing to get our hands on some at current prices is a good sign imho.