(Ok, I edited this many times as I thought through my reasoning. And I'm glad you asked, because I filled in my theoretical model quite a bit.)
In my estimation, which is worth at least twice what you are paying for it, I figure the expander ought to be about 1 ten thousandth of an inch smaller than the bullet at the case mouth. And then starting about 2 tenths of an inch from where the base of the bullet seats, it should start to taper to 3 ten thousandths of an inch smaller than the bullet and should reach at least as deep as your bullet will seat by the time it adds just a little flare. And the flare should be about 3 thousandths of an inch larger than bullet diameter. And that would be the same answer, no matter what you are shooting, although with jacketed bullets you are probably just as good going up to a couple mils smaller.
Note that this answer does not depend on measuring the brass, at all. That doesn't matter in my book, whatsoever. As long as your size die gets your brass undersized, a bit. Or maybe at least enough to see a bulge with your bullets, anyway. That is all you need to know. These expander dimensions are what I find will work with such a tight sizing die. If your sizing die is a little loose, already, then these dimensions may be too big; my theory is that this is due to the larger die not getting the case small enough, and that the plug will only be cycling the "spring" of the case an extra time, increasing the "set" that a new spring takes, weakening what was already less than full neck tension to begin with. In this case, it appears like you might retain more of that tension by using an undersize plug (or just a flare die, because this case doesn't need to be expanded at all). In a tight enough case, this plug is making a new "spring" by redefining the inelastic boundary of the metal. And because it's pushing the brass in the opposite direction from the sizer, it's ok to get up to full bullet diameter. The springback is going to make the case smaller by the exact amount it needs to get full neck tension, and no more. And any set that the new spring is going to take is going to act only in the direction that makes the neck tension tighter. So it's kinda like either you need an expander at all, in which case these dimensions will work. Or you don't need an expander, at all, in which case this will probably hurt neck tension. But I contend that in no case do you benefit from an expander that is 2 mils smaller than the bullet over the one or the other: a flare-only die or this monster oversize expander. It's a kinda-sorta compromise that just might sorta even out a case that might be too big at the casemouth, but too small at the bullet base, due to increasing thickness of the brass, but it can't open up the base enough to be optimal for soft bullets.
Footnote: you WILL notice that the bullets are easier to seat, but if you compare the neck tension of the bullet by whatever method you use to test that, I predict you will find the neck tension is essentially unaltered. Again, provided that your size die is tight enough to begin with.