Federal ban? Not likely. State level changes? Highly likely. Of course those changes will take place in the states that already have the crazy "gun control" laws. I don't see Alabama enacting any new laws to restrict gun ownership. My Congressmen have already voiced their opinions on gun legislation and they are all for enforcing existing laws and tougher penalties for gun related crimes. I don't know what the % is but most gun crimes here are commited by people who have prior convictions.
New AWB or will it all just blow over?
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BTW, this is how desperate Las Vegas was to get some money up on Buster Douglas against Mike Tyson, probably the biggest upset in sports history.: 42 to 1.
I am confident that there will be no AWB in this Congress. But not that confident!
I always think of this when I think of the biggest upsets:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Stanford_vs._Southern_California_football_game
41 point spread, no vig moneyline was easily over 100-1
we are not amused
Member
This is a non-partisan issue hence why HSO is letting it go forward, I believe.
Seriously, there are MANY of us Democrats that were PO'ed by the statements inside the Firearms plank, the mention of an AWB in the 2nd debate (even after it was acknowledged that rifles were NOT the cause of violence in our major cities) and then the knee-jerk responses to the recent group of gunmen.
.... am doing what I can to get others to agree that whether or not they choose to own firearms they have no right to tell the rest of us we can not.
I applaud your statement, and wish other pro-gun Democrats would speak out to their Leadership.
There are many elected Democrats in State and Federal Office who believe in the 2nd Amendment, but few among the elected or appointed leadership who do so, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is the only one I know of.
As a bona fide Conservative Republican, I will freely acknowledge, that with out the support and votes of numerous Democrats in both the House and the Senate, that the amendment to the Credit Card Bill that allowed Concealed Carry in the National Parks would never have been passed.
Since President George H. W. Bush's resumption of the war on guns, conservative, pro-gun Republicans have been trying to weed anti-gun Republicans from elected office. It isn't easy, as some are very well camouflaged as the afore mentioned President, but we have had some success. Primary fights can be won, if one is organized and willing to work for it. The fight continues, and I urge all Democrats who believe in the 2nd Amendment to contact their representatives in Congress and let them know that they will support pro-gun primary challengers. Sometimes the mere threat is enough to change voting behavior.
As for the chance of anti-gun legislation passing, I don't think it will.
But it will be introduced, and depending upon the strength of the pro-gun lobby, (not just the NRA, but the other gun groups, and individuals calling their Congressmen) it has a chance to pass.
Get involved! Call your Representative. Call your Senators. Even if they are anti-gun, and let them know where you stand. Be respectful, but let them know you will remember their vote when it comes to the primaries and election time.
MudPuppy
Member
Every time you worry about it, send a twenty to the NRA or organization of choice.
Or, wring your hands I guess.
Seriously, we've seen this before and what can happen. And have no doubt, a mag or features ban would only be temporary...until they can do a complete ban of repeating arms and that would only be until they can whittle away to do a complete ban.
Or, wring your hands I guess.
Seriously, we've seen this before and what can happen. And have no doubt, a mag or features ban would only be temporary...until they can do a complete ban of repeating arms and that would only be until they can whittle away to do a complete ban.
garyhan
Member
I was around in 1968 and watched the outrage following the King and Kennedy assassinations quickly build to the passage of FGCA '68. The passions are running higher this time. In the heat of the moment, without due consideration, I believe some gun control legislation will pass in the next few months. Whether a mag ban, An AWB, or something even more heinous I don not know. I will fight any legislation, but I believe we should all be prepared for the consequences.
gary
gary
AlexanderA
Member
The consensus among "gun people," judging simply by the buying frenzy we're seeing, is that there will be a new AWB. I'll be a contrarian, though, and say that there won't be one, after all is said and done.
Tommygunn
Member
AlexanderA said:
Warp said:
I agree; the House of Representatives will reject one. The Senate may or may not uphold one, but without the House it won't get to the president's desk.
CharlieDeltaJuliet
Member
I have written every representative in my State. I have written the PresidenT,Vice-President, Senate Majority leader and Speaker of the house. I am also a Democrat. I am from a long line of "ole blue dogs" that are as strong on 2A rights as any. I will vote only for pro gun politicians. I even expressed my affiliation and explained that until the 1994 AWB my family had never considered switching affiliations. I advised them all to remember what happened to the politicians that helped pass the previous ban. While we know that all were not outed, I hope if it comes to be, this time will be different.
I grew up here in North Carolina. I have been all around the country and seen a few different countries. Never in my life have I ever been more disappointed with out elected officials. While I hope the backlash is null, I am afraid that it will be something. I am not willing to accept ANY new restrictions. Too many people in my state now have the view that semi-automatic rifles are too dangerous to be in the public's hands. I try to educate them, but it is the media that spins the evil view.
Do I think that new gun laws or bans will pass? It's possible, but tooth and nail need to be given to try to prevent any. Too bad you are gone Mr.Heston, the "cold dead hands" speech is needed now more than ever.....
I grew up here in North Carolina. I have been all around the country and seen a few different countries. Never in my life have I ever been more disappointed with out elected officials. While I hope the backlash is null, I am afraid that it will be something. I am not willing to accept ANY new restrictions. Too many people in my state now have the view that semi-automatic rifles are too dangerous to be in the public's hands. I try to educate them, but it is the media that spins the evil view.
Do I think that new gun laws or bans will pass? It's possible, but tooth and nail need to be given to try to prevent any. Too bad you are gone Mr.Heston, the "cold dead hands" speech is needed now more than ever.....
76shuvlinoff
Member
There may not be an AWB but I don't think avoiding it will be free.
meanmrmustard
Member
+1. No ban.
I really don't know.
And if they miss this chance, there's no guarantee we won't see another tragedy that's even worse in mid-January, and that could provide the needed emotional push to "finally get something done for the children."
I really don't know.
- The administration, most of the senate, and more of the house than will admit it are in favor of more restrictions on firearm ownership and use. I think if the NRA had come out in favor of limited restrictions the Republicans in the house would have gone along with it, perceiving no risk.
- There are no changes to firearm policies that will affect the likelihood of another tragedy like this one.
- The longer we wait, the less public outcry there will be, and the less chance we have of some horrendous emotionally driven piece of legislation getting passed.
- Obama doesn't need to face re-election, and I don't think he's particularly friendly to firearm ownership. I think that if the administration can find a way to get the ATF to just issue some rulings or change some guidance to restrict firearms, then he will.
And if they miss this chance, there's no guarantee we won't see another tragedy that's even worse in mid-January, and that could provide the needed emotional push to "finally get something done for the children."
I really don't know.
Most politicians will vote what their constituents want them to vote. That is how they get re-elected.
I gusss I would be considered a Tea Party guy because of my fiscal beliefs but I know there are a lot of Democrats where I live that are farmers, hunters,etc and definitely pro-gun. Even a lot of these people who own and use firearms are on the fence regarding "assault" weapons because they don't have them and can therefore justify a ban on an item they see as unnecessary. It is up to those of us who do own these guns and understand that the anti gun movement would love to see a ban on even the old pump 22 to educate other gun owners. Make sure the old guy down the street knows what is at stake. Every old time farmer I know is a Democrat and owns a lot of guns. They also have a lot of money/land and can get the attention of their elected representatives. If anyone is talking like they might support a ban of some sort on hi cap magazines that we really don't need then we have to convince them that there is no stopping the anti gun movement.
Let's face facts. Very few of us "need" an AR or an AK or an SKS so it is easier to convince people that banning these items is okay. I also don't "need" satellite TV with 450 channels. I don't "need" all of the land I own and I certainly don't "need" a smartphone. I wonder what would happen if Congress tried to ban Iphones? Mass protests and social upheaval would follow because people see the "need" for smartphones.
I have these things because I enjoy them and I want them- not because I need them. I can only use one gun at a time so why do I need 3 safes full? Why does my wife need 100 pair of shoes?
Make a call or send an email and expect an answer. Don't let your Congressman ignore you. If he disagrees with you or ignores you then point out that you are actively working within his constituency to make sure people know his stance on the issue. Have a few others send him an email and his staff will make sure he hears what is being said. Most House members will perk up if they get 10 or so messages about a certain subject from one area.
I gusss I would be considered a Tea Party guy because of my fiscal beliefs but I know there are a lot of Democrats where I live that are farmers, hunters,etc and definitely pro-gun. Even a lot of these people who own and use firearms are on the fence regarding "assault" weapons because they don't have them and can therefore justify a ban on an item they see as unnecessary. It is up to those of us who do own these guns and understand that the anti gun movement would love to see a ban on even the old pump 22 to educate other gun owners. Make sure the old guy down the street knows what is at stake. Every old time farmer I know is a Democrat and owns a lot of guns. They also have a lot of money/land and can get the attention of their elected representatives. If anyone is talking like they might support a ban of some sort on hi cap magazines that we really don't need then we have to convince them that there is no stopping the anti gun movement.
Let's face facts. Very few of us "need" an AR or an AK or an SKS so it is easier to convince people that banning these items is okay. I also don't "need" satellite TV with 450 channels. I don't "need" all of the land I own and I certainly don't "need" a smartphone. I wonder what would happen if Congress tried to ban Iphones? Mass protests and social upheaval would follow because people see the "need" for smartphones.
I have these things because I enjoy them and I want them- not because I need them. I can only use one gun at a time so why do I need 3 safes full? Why does my wife need 100 pair of shoes?
Make a call or send an email and expect an answer. Don't let your Congressman ignore you. If he disagrees with you or ignores you then point out that you are actively working within his constituency to make sure people know his stance on the issue. Have a few others send him an email and his staff will make sure he hears what is being said. Most House members will perk up if they get 10 or so messages about a certain subject from one area.
This is not the Congress that passed the 1994 AWB and the Democrats passed the ban, only to lose 54 seats in the November election that year.
The Republicans in this Congress were elected from more gerrymandered and more strongly Republican districts than ever, the earliest that redistricting will change is the 2022 election. I don't see Boehner's House passing Feinstein's bill or another 1994 AWB. That said, I think they will feel the need to do something, possibly focusing on the mental health and criminal justice system flaws. The House bill will get sent to the Senate to die, and the Senate bill will get sent to the House to die. I'm not sure what Obama can do with an executive order that won't be overturned buy the courts. Meanwhile, the MSM and Obama will continue to beat the Republicans over the head with this.
What happens in the 2014 elections will IMO depend on how the economy is doing at that point, and who gets the blame. I don't expect unemployment to be any better than it is now, and possibly it will be worse. If the Republicans lose the House, the resulting AWB legislation will be much worse than 1994.
The Republicans in this Congress were elected from more gerrymandered and more strongly Republican districts than ever, the earliest that redistricting will change is the 2022 election. I don't see Boehner's House passing Feinstein's bill or another 1994 AWB. That said, I think they will feel the need to do something, possibly focusing on the mental health and criminal justice system flaws. The House bill will get sent to the Senate to die, and the Senate bill will get sent to the House to die. I'm not sure what Obama can do with an executive order that won't be overturned buy the courts. Meanwhile, the MSM and Obama will continue to beat the Republicans over the head with this.
What happens in the 2014 elections will IMO depend on how the economy is doing at that point, and who gets the blame. I don't expect unemployment to be any better than it is now, and possibly it will be worse. If the Republicans lose the House, the resulting AWB legislation will be much worse than 1994.
In Cali they tried to pass a law that made bullet buttons illegal. That would make the common workaround to the current CA AWB illegal, thus making any AW with a removable magazine illegal.
That bill was pushed by Mr. Leland Yee. Mr. Yee received an enormous number of letters and phone calls opposing this. He also received death threats and accusations of being a communist. While the threats and name calling were horrible tactics, it shows that even in a liberal state like CA the opposition to gun control is significant. The bill did not get voted upon (I think).
CA has a new state congress with a supermajority. We'll see what happens in CA. I'm a bit more worried about that now that a previous poster mentioned it.
Federally... I don't know Johnny. Would you give 1:3 odds that there won't be a mag capacity reduction on the federal level? I may take those odds. I'm not a professional gambler but I think I might have the best of it on that.
Oh, and I'm also a dem. But I feel horrified by the media and politicians when they vilify "semi autos" as inherently bad when I think most people don't even know what that means. Like a revolver is less deadly than a 1911? I think they believe semi-auto is a full auto. Morons. And they talk about how "crazy" NRA members are. While I don't agree with everything the NRA pushes, I wonder if a single mass killing with a gun has been perpetrated by a NRA member. I think not. They're law abiding and responsible.
That bill was pushed by Mr. Leland Yee. Mr. Yee received an enormous number of letters and phone calls opposing this. He also received death threats and accusations of being a communist. While the threats and name calling were horrible tactics, it shows that even in a liberal state like CA the opposition to gun control is significant. The bill did not get voted upon (I think).
CA has a new state congress with a supermajority. We'll see what happens in CA. I'm a bit more worried about that now that a previous poster mentioned it.
Federally... I don't know Johnny. Would you give 1:3 odds that there won't be a mag capacity reduction on the federal level? I may take those odds. I'm not a professional gambler but I think I might have the best of it on that.
Oh, and I'm also a dem. But I feel horrified by the media and politicians when they vilify "semi autos" as inherently bad when I think most people don't even know what that means. Like a revolver is less deadly than a 1911? I think they believe semi-auto is a full auto. Morons. And they talk about how "crazy" NRA members are. While I don't agree with everything the NRA pushes, I wonder if a single mass killing with a gun has been perpetrated by a NRA member. I think not. They're law abiding and responsible.
I'll chime in: With the strong control over the House, I am cautiously optimistic that nothing will get pushed through regarding a new AWB. Its too much of a third-rail, and the whole "Form a committee to study the issue and make recommendations" is also a good way to make sure something simmers on the back burner and gets forgotten.
Obama-care went through by the skin of its teeth in a Democrat controlled House and Senate. With the House firmly in the Republican zone, I am optimistic that any major regulation is going to see a lot of resistance/be watered down to the point where its nothing but a paper tiger. Eg Ban on the sale of 10+ round magazines, but nothing about banning the sale of components needed to manufacture 30+ round magazines with the definition of a mag as the completed item with body, spring, follower and base-plate. I'm personally OK snapping together new 30 round magazines from "parts kits" on my kitchen table.
Additionally, there are also a few pro-gun Democrats. As long as they are also getting sufficiently contacted by their constituents about no new regulations, I think it further boosts our cause.
Obama may not worry about getting re-elected, but I am betting his party bosses are very concerned about his fellow Dems in the House and Senate getting re-elected in 2014 and onward... Remember, its not all just about Obama.
Obama-care went through by the skin of its teeth in a Democrat controlled House and Senate. With the House firmly in the Republican zone, I am optimistic that any major regulation is going to see a lot of resistance/be watered down to the point where its nothing but a paper tiger. Eg Ban on the sale of 10+ round magazines, but nothing about banning the sale of components needed to manufacture 30+ round magazines with the definition of a mag as the completed item with body, spring, follower and base-plate. I'm personally OK snapping together new 30 round magazines from "parts kits" on my kitchen table.
Additionally, there are also a few pro-gun Democrats. As long as they are also getting sufficiently contacted by their constituents about no new regulations, I think it further boosts our cause.
Obama may not worry about getting re-elected, but I am betting his party bosses are very concerned about his fellow Dems in the House and Senate getting re-elected in 2014 and onward... Remember, its not all just about Obama.
I doubt it will pass and if it did it won't have "teeth " but here is why I doubt it will pass.....Job security for a whole bunch of them...This bill "as written" is political suicide for very many to support (we know the usual anti gun "players" who will support it, it appears they don't have the votes to defeat a filibuster in the Senate at this point though) I expect that tactic to be used and I seriously doubt it will get on the House floor much less anything there.
The 2014 United States elections will be held on Tuesday, November 4, 2014. During this midterm election year, all 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 33 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate will be contested in this election along with 38 state and territorial governorships, 46 state legislatures (except Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia), four territorial legislatures and numerous state and local races.
The 2014 United States elections will be held on Tuesday, November 4, 2014. During this midterm election year, all 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 33 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate will be contested in this election along with 38 state and territorial governorships, 46 state legislatures (except Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia), four territorial legislatures and numerous state and local races.
Ignition Override
Member
-v-:
I've also suggested that a new AWB could affect the Dems' Senate majority in the mid-term elections, but nobody on THR seems to view that as any real factor in present political calculations for a new gun bill. Even after mid-terms, it seems that the Dems might not want to spend what is left of their political capital on a gun issue (excluding another 'Newtown'), with taxes and the cost of Obamacare growing.
A concern that the public won't see, or care about is that with attention on Congress regarding our fiscal cliff and 'gun control', Obama might gradually use that media distraction to quietly allow the DOJ, ATF etc to incrementally create more obstacles to importing surplus guns and ammo from eastern Europe, Russia etc, even Gewehrpatronen (GP) from Switzerland.
I've also suggested that a new AWB could affect the Dems' Senate majority in the mid-term elections, but nobody on THR seems to view that as any real factor in present political calculations for a new gun bill. Even after mid-terms, it seems that the Dems might not want to spend what is left of their political capital on a gun issue (excluding another 'Newtown'), with taxes and the cost of Obamacare growing.
A concern that the public won't see, or care about is that with attention on Congress regarding our fiscal cliff and 'gun control', Obama might gradually use that media distraction to quietly allow the DOJ, ATF etc to incrementally create more obstacles to importing surplus guns and ammo from eastern Europe, Russia etc, even Gewehrpatronen (GP) from Switzerland.
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