Outcome Bias

[Johnm1]

A common term we hear today is recency bias. You know, you hear of a disease that you have never heard of before and it has symptoms x, y, and z. And suddenly you notice those same symptoms. Not unusual and somewhat human nature. I'm certainly not an expert researcher but I do try to be objective and not jump to conclusions. But I find that I am subject to Outcome Bias.

I've got several threads on a Queen Anne pistol I bought a couple of years ago. I did a little research before I bought it but I really had no idea of what I was buying.

What I was hoping for was a flintlock that was made during the revolutionary war period. So far the research narrows the date of manufacture between 1776 and 1814. But the research isn't complete. It would be super cool to have a firearm that existed in the United States before it was the United States. Although I initially thought it was a trade gun made in England for sale to the colonies, I later learned it was made of the higher quality for sale to the domestic (British) market. It did have some pretty intacate engraving.

So that's neat, could it be a silver mounted pistol?

The pistol does have some pretty intricate silver inlay in the grip. I searched for photographs of similar pistols described as silver mounted and some appeared to have the barrel and receiver silver plated. So off I go on an almost microscopic search to see if after 230 years there might be a trace of silver plate deep in a protected area of the engraving. And lo and behold I found two miniscule places showing the slightest hint of silver in an engraved mark on the side of the hammer adjacent to where the hammer enters the top of the receiver. I thought wow this is turning out to be a better buy then I expected.

Since then I've learned two things. The pistol was made and marketed as silver mounted and the technique for silver plating wasn't invented until 15 years AFTER the company went out of business!

The lesson here is that I went looking for traces of silver and found it where it didn't exist because of my Outcome Bias.

 

[Monac]

It depends what kind of silver plating you mean. Electroplating could not, of course, be done until electricity was available. The earliest source of electricity was from chemical batteries, which pretty much agrees with your 15 years after 1814 for using it for regular commercial purposes. But things could be plated with gold or silver long before that, by physically attaching the plating to the item. I think something plated this way with gold came to be referred to as "gold filled", and it may survive to the present day, because it is a much thicker and more durable plating than electroplating.

So: I don't know if that helps you any, but there really is no time within the age of flintlocks when silver plating (of a sort) was not possible. You should Google it, because my knowledge of this is vague. But to me, you have a very nice gun.

 

[Johnm1]

Yeah, someone at work mentioned the same thing. Apparently even Sheffield Plating could have been done on a pistol. Here is an example of a very detailed button plated in Sheffield Plating




So, maybe my wife is right. The surefire way to tell if I’m wrong is if I’m talking! In this case, even when I’m admitting I’m wrong, I’m wrong.

 

[Johnm1]

but there really is no time within the age of flintlocks when silver plating (of a sort) was not possible. You should Google it, because my knowledge of this is vague.

Your knowledge might be vague but it certainly was on target. Although I'm still reading about it, apparently silver (and gold) were applied using an amalgam of Mercury and silver (or gold) applied to the piece and heated. Wikipedia describes it a 'Mercury Silvering or 'Fire Gilding'.

And the examples I previously found do appear to be silver plated in some fashion. This pair are almost a duplicate of the pistol I have. the only real differences are a slight difference in the engraving on the side opposite of the 'Ketland' and these both have an escutcheon on the grip.

A fine pair of silver mounted English Queen Anne style flintlock box-lock pistols by Ketland & Co (andrewbottomley.com)

I have gone over the entire pistol at very high magnification and what I found previously were reflections and not silver. At high magnification I see more grease/gunk than anything else.








So, the point of this thread was the idea of outcome bias. Although it turns out to not be true in this particular case, I still suffer from it.

 

[jmorris]

What I was hoping for was a flintlock that was made during the revolutionary war period. So far the research narrows the date of manufacture between 1776 and 1814. But the research isn't complete. It would be super cool to have a firearm that existed in the United States before it was the United States.

Stop doing research, after the buy.

The outcome bias is an error made in evaluating the quality of a decision when the outcome of that decision is already known.

 

[Johnm1]

Stop doing research, after the buy.

I see your point. But for me, the after purchase research is when the fun begins. I never question whether I still want a gun or not after I purchased it. I wouldn't purchase the gun unless it is something that I wanted based on the knowledge I have when I purchased it. Follow-up research sometimes reveals a diamond in the rough. Not often, but sometimes. Most of the research I do after the purchase can't really be done until you have the firearm in your hands. Sellers often don't know the answer to questions.

 

[Nature Boy]

Stop doing research, after the buy.

I have a bad habit of looking for the lowest prices on an item AFTER buying it, then finding it for less and kicking myself for not waiting