Reading the Gun Market Tea Leaves

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This tells the story.

Earlier during covid, we saw the highest new gun sales per month in history every month. But now, the market is floundering. S&W is kicking sales and rebates on their highest selling products to stimulate market volume regrowth. This strategy makes the sale prices appear to be incentives, temporary and fleeting, in an economic market where most consumers are simply accepting that “prices are high,” and buying trends have slowed down significantly. We had a run on investment Banks this week - consumer confidence is low, buying is slow. The 686 isn’t S&W’s target and likely isn’t the sales which will turn their stock around, so it’s not being debated. For their bottom line, the pistol lines and the M&P15 are their staple sales, the biggest hammer they have to swing to break through revenue walls. Over 3,000 Americans which WILL buy a firearm turn legal age to buy a S&W product every day, and those people typically buy pistols and AR’s, so offering sales on their market leaders is what draws more and more of those 3,000/day gunbuyers to buy S&W products, AND which may entice more of the 10,000+ Americans per day turning of legal age to become part of the 3,000+1. From the perspective of their 686 market strategy, the pistols are loss leaders, in a manner of speaking, as most folks buying a revolver already own another firearm. I’d equally assume, knowing what I know of the demography of these markets, revolver sales don’t slow as much as pistol sales when prices increase, and sales don’t increase as much - either or both proportionately or in volume - when prices decrease. So if S&W wants to make money, they do it with model lines which make them the most money, the easiest.
 
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Googling "US gun sales trend" brings up sources that indicate gun sales are currently decreasing and increasing in the US.:confused:

And is there any wonder why I am confused? You don’t need to answer that!

A Google of NICS background checks showed a steady decline from 2020 levels but 2022 was still higher than 2019. Clear downward trend that I predict will level off at 2019 levels, since they looked somewhat flat from 2019 going back about 5 or 6 years.
 
No rhyme or reason for the increase in prices on 686s except for supply and demand. I bought one of those M&P 2.0 10MM to try it cause it fit my hand better and the rebate was a plus. Just a guess but I'm gonna say those low priced Tisas will creep up if they are truly a well made pistol. Introduce them at a low price to get your foot in the door and then creep those prices up to the norm. YMMV...

I think the value of the dollar to the lira gives the importers of Tisas a huge advantage. Split the difference to comparable US made pistols will be downward pressure on those US pistols and a relative large profit for Tisas. I don’t see the price of Tisas coming down, either, anytime soon, because if the value is there, why wouldn’t they sell for what they are asking?

I passed on the deals with the intent to buy a 686.

As I posted earlier, and as Varminterror alluded to, I think I am an example of what many are doing. Lots of people probably bought cheap plastic fantastics for HD then SD, learned a little more that they like guns, and now are looking to expand if finances allow. That points to something different - revolvers - not more of the same.

So, I think the price of Tisas and 686’s are not going to come down. That’s my reading of the tea leaves.
 
buy both.
Someday. That’s been my problem. I keep buying the less expensive things first and depleting my gun fund, thereby never get to the 686.

In hindsight, I should have bought the 686 first instead of my M&P Shield, 15-22, and 22 compact since prices on those have come back and 686’s have kept going up.
 
A quick check just now on GB there are over 2,000 Tisas starting at as low as $349.00!

I was looking at the 1911 Carry SS45R. They were selling for $439 a few months ago. Cheapest I see right now is about $525. Anyway, still not a bad deal - stainless 1911 with a rail and "enhanced" features. I think the entire THR membership will breathe a sigh of relief and say “about $@# time!” when I finally get a 686 and post it in the "what is the last gun that you bought" thread.
 
Um, the recent Turkish Earthquake caused $34 billion dollars in damage and killed more than 57,000 people.
I wouldn't count on anything from Turkish firearms to be stable with supply chain, prices, quality or any other
factor. The country was dealt a severe blow. It will recover but the effect that will have on firearm exports seems
to be pretty unknown at this point.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/06/midd...se and Business,working days at $2.91 billion.
 
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