22 LR Solution - RAISE PRICES THROUGH THE ROOF

[BSA1]

Manufacturers are probably increasing capacity, but not like they would if they could raise prices.

You fail to understand why investing 10's, 100's,dare say million of dollars in new manufacturing equipment and space along with the training new employees for what is correctly a short term bubble is a poor business decision. And a big problem is once the bubble bursts due to public demand being met what is going to be done with the now unneeded manufacturing capacity and employees along with unsold inventory.

Even "hoarders" as you label them will reach a point where they will no longer feel the need for additional firearms, ammo, etc. unless more folks realize that dependence on the Government is not to their best interests and chances of survival.

Say wouldn't that be a good thing?

Again, the gun community is very hostile to suppliers, manufacturers, and retailers that raise prices during periods of flashpoint strong demand. Because of that, they are reluctant to raise prices on ammo, magazines, etc. The backlash from the gun community is no fun.

Exactly as it should be and is happening.

 

[danez71]

Manufacturers are probably increasing capacity, but not like they would if they could raise prices.

.

But prices have risen. I don't see anyone here saying they haven't risen at all.

I think even yourself said Walmart hasn't risen their price enough. But the fact is, even Walmarts prices are higher.



"Probably" or "are" adding capacity beyond running 24/7?

Factual data or examples are needed if youre going to serve up the answer to all our 22lr ammo problems.

Personally, I "heard" one mfg was starting to add capacity. But that's hearsay and only one mfg.

 

[WinThePennant]

"You are right that much of the product is not being sold by scalpers. Rather, it is being hoarded. Hoarding mostly occurs during periods of shortages, or perceived shortages. Right now, we definitely have a shortage. Fear of public reprisal is preventing retailers from moving prices higher, which only worsens the shortage.”

At last a comment from you I agree with although once again I disagree with the use of term “hoarding.” It would be nice to read a post without your name calling.

“Hoarding” for me is a term used by folks that do not foresee or believe that a shortage of certain products may occur in the future. They live on a day to day basis with the assumption that the items they need will always be available at a moment’s notice.

Others, such as myself, through the way we were raised, life experiences, understanding of past events, recognition of real dangers in the area we life in and education purchase items that in past have proven or will be in short supply for storage in such an emergency. We consider ourselves to be self-reliant and believe it our responsibility to protect ourselves.

For example I have lived in tornado alley all my life. Although my house has not ever been hit by a tornado we have stood on our front porch watching tornados form in the sky and drop down to the ground a few miles away. I have also seen first hand the damage tornados cause when they hit a populated area (google Greensburg, Kansas, Hesston, Kansas). In fact a F4 tornado that hit Wichita and Haysville, Kansas in 1999 missed my house only by one mile and destroyed the neighborhood we use to live in. (Once again I watched it from the front door of my house).

But since a tornado has never hit my property why should I have extra food, water and emergency supplies in my basement? Worse yet I am taking advantage of the market by buying extra food at SALE PRICES and even buying vegetable seeds so I can plant a garden to reduce my dependence on others. If events turn out to be long term , think hurricane, what does that make me when I purchased more items to keep a certain level of inventory?

What I have experienced on many occasions are power failures that directly threatened our lives. The longest one lasted two weeks but it happened in warm spring time weather so it wasn't immediately life-threatening. The last one occurred as a result of mid winter ice storm that let us without power for three days and forced us to abandon our home and seek shelter in a hotel that had power. After that I purchased a generator. But a generator uses gasoline so am I “hoarding” gasoline since there is not a power failure foreseeable in the near future? After all a gas station is only three miles away.

For most of 2013 folks have experienced shortages in certain types of firearms, high capacity magazines and ammunition resulting in them being either unavailable or available at higher than normal prices. Yet 11 months later the market has corrected itself so much (without Government intervention) that stores are well stocked with firearms, so many that big box stores such as Cabelas are running on sale at discounted prices, and as are magazines. I was in Cabelas this past weekend and the shelves were well stocked at least at at pre-banic levels with all types of centerfire ammunition and lots of firearms especially black rifles such as the AR.

Now all we have left is for some folks complaining about the shortage of 22 rimfire ammunition even though companies such as MidwayUSA last week are advertising it at near normal pre-banic prices.

The real question that remains is how many folks will take advantage (GASP!!! CHOKE!!! OMG HOARD) of the availability of firearms such as AR’s at discounted prices, ammunition especially 22 rimfire to avoid gun and ammunition shortages that have happen several times over the last 15 – 20 years and only 4 years ago.

I don't disagree much of what you said. We just disagree on what is a hoarder, and what is an intelligent person who plans ahead.

I know of people who are sitting on 20,000+ rounds of 22 LR. And, yet, they still buy all they can and add to their stockpile during this period of shortage (higher retail prices would discourage this activity, by the way). Is that a hoarder? Do you think anyone can ever be a "hoarder?" Based on your lengthy description, I'd say that no one can ever be a "hoarder."

 

[WinThePennant]

Manufacturers are probably increasing capacity, but not like they would if they could raise prices.

You fail to understand why investing 10's, 100's,dare say million of dollars in new manufacturing equipment and space along with the training new employees for what is correctly a short term bubble is a poor business decision. And a big problem is once the bubble bursts due to public demand being met what is going to be done with the now unneeded manufacturing capacity and employees along with unsold inventory.

Even "hoarders" as you label them will reach a point where they will no longer feel the need for additional firearms, ammo, etc. unless more folks realize that dependence on the Government is not to their best interests and chances of survival.

Say wouldn't that be a good thing?

Again, the gun community is very hostile to suppliers, manufacturers, and retailers that raise prices during periods of flashpoint strong demand. Because of that, they are reluctant to raise prices on ammo, magazines, etc. The backlash from the gun community is no fun.

Exactly as it should be and is happening.

It is a short term bubble (that would have been even shorter if prices rose as quickly as demand). But, you can add capacity without increasing your capital expenditures. Labor is a variable unit, and can be pressed into service to work additional and/or longer shifts.

One of my long running pet peeves is unadulterated ignorance of economics during periods of strong demand. One of the best things that can happen during a shortage of almost anything is high prices.

 

[David E]

Retail prices are NOT "artificially low." Artificially raising them is not the answer.

If you charge $50 for 100 Minimags that used to retail for $8.50, you're not going to sell any. Folks can shoot or reload other calibers for less money than that.

Unless you're talking about raising ALL ammo prices. A 20 rd box of .223 Tula that I bought yesterday for $5.67 at Walmart would sit there if it was marked $35.

But some would crow, "See? The shortage is over! Look at all those dusty boxes ammo sitting there!"

If component prices were similarly raised, people would stop buying them.

Those that could buy ammo or components wouldn't shoot it up anytime soon. Consider how your own shooting habits have changed this past year.

Oh, they'd put it on sale? Who, exactly? If Joe's Gunshop paid $39 for that 100 rd box of Minimags, how cheap do you think he'd sell it for? When CCI decided to charge their normal price (let's say it's $5) and Joe buys more at that price, he will eventually have to eat the artificially inflated price he paid during the bubble.

A far better solution right now is rationing.

Where is there any guarantee that raised prices would ever come down, much less return to the current retail prices? If CCI can sell that $8.50 box of ammo all day for $19, why would they lower the price later?

.

 

[larryh1108]

If you want to buy it, and can't find it, then you have a shortage.

If you can find it, it isn't a shortage. If you choose to not pay the going price, it's a choice. If you REALLY nead it, you can purchase it. Is it a shortage if you want to buy it and add it to your stash? If you want to buy your son a .22LR for Christmas and need ammo for it, you can find it and buy it. Now, whether you wish to pay the going price is another story and one which you addressed here. There is no shortage if the majority of sold ammo (reg prices) is being put away for a rainy day but can be found at higher prices every day.

In the last 2 years, the northeast was hit with 2 serious natural disasters. One was a hurricane and one was an early, huge blizzard. Both times power was lost to a large part of the population. I lost power for 3 weeks. Many lost it for over a month.

Generators were at a premium. The dealers sold out their supply in a single day. The dealers without a conscience doubled their prices plus. If you needed a generator, you were out of luck. (I work in the generator industry). Emergency shipments were routed to the northeast but it only scratched the surface. However, 300 miles west and there was no damage or demand. Dealers sent semis to stores to buy their generators at retail and then sell them to the population at sick prices. They paid retail and the cost for the semis, labor, etc to get them there. People got upset at the higher prices. Some paid, some didn't and got angry. Who was at fault? The people who didn't already have one or the store that was scrambling to get them for whoever had the money? People bought them in FL and other southern states and ran them up and sold them out of their pickups for triple retail. Some people paid and they made their money. There was no shortage of generators in the country, just in the northeast. 85% of the gas stations were closed because there was no power. People could not drive if they had less than half a tank of gas because it was widespread. If you lived on the edge, you were lucky. I was lucky as I was out of town on business for the disaster for work but the point remains that the people who were not prepared paid dearly.

Well, guess what? 2 months later we get whacked with a huge blizzard on Halloween. The trees had all their leaves so the huge snow pulled down the branches and downed thousands of power lines. I was also out of town for business but there was a LOT of people who did not learn from the previous disaster and needed a generator for this outage. Did they pick one up when it returned to normal in October? No. So, now the same thing happened again and the supply for the northeast was still low from the previous disaster and those people either got no generator or paid more than the previous people did. Live and learn is a smart thing. Some people just don't get it and then they cry because they don't have power and can't find a generator.

 

[WinThePennant]

Retail prices are NOT "artificially low." Artificially raising them is not the answer.

If you charge $50 for 100 Minimags that used to retail for $8.50, you're not going to sell any. Folks can shoot or reload other calibers for less money than that.

Unless you're talking about raising ALL ammo prices. A 20 rd box of .223 Tula that I bought yesterday for $5.67 at Walmart would sit there if it was marked $35.

But some would crow, "See? The shortage is over! Look at all those dusty boxes ammo sitting there!"

If component prices were similarly raised, people would stop buying them.

Those that could buy ammo or components wouldn't shoot it up anytime soon. Consider how your own shooting habits have changed this past year.

Oh, they'd put it on sale? Who, exactly? If Joe's Gunshop paid $39 for that 100 rd box of Minimags, how cheap do you think he'd sell it for? When CCI decided to charge their normal price (let's say it's $5) and Joe buys more at that price, he will eventually have to eat the artificially inflated price he paid during the bubble.

A far better solution right now is rationing.

People who need 22 LR would gladly pay those prices. And, by "need," I am saying people who are pretty much fresh out or nearly dry. Ammo, in this day and age, isn't a "need" for most of the people buying it these days.

Price would wind down, eventually, and find its equilibrium (probably at pre-panic prices). But, the high prices would prevent shortages for those who need to buy it.

At this point in time, rationing is an unacceptable mechanism in that it is highly inefficient.

 

[WinThePennant]

If you can find it, it isn't a shortage. If you choose to not pay the going price, it's a choice. If you REALLY nead it, you can purchase it. Is it a shortage if you want to buy it and add it to your stash? If you want to buy your son a .22LR for Christmas and need ammo for it, you can find it and buy it. Now, whether you wish to pay the going price is another story and one which you addressed here. There is no shortage if the majority of sold ammo (reg prices) is being put away for a rainy day but can be found at higher prices every day.

It is practically the textbook definition of shortage when you can only find a product in the alternative markets (scalper's market, black market, etc.).

 

[danez71]

It is a short term bubble (that would have been even shorter if prices rose as quickly as demand). But, you can add capacity without increasing your capital expenditures. Labor is a variable unit, and can be pressed into service to work additional and/or longer shifts.

One of my long running pet peeves is unadulterated ignorance of economics during periods of strong demand. One of the best things that can happen during a shortage of almost anything is high prices.

But all the mfgs are saying they running 24/7. There's many posts here that say it.

Whats worse is the blindness of recent real world examples that raising prices exorbitantly leads to unintended consequences that hurt all.

People who need 22 LR would gladly pay those prices. And, by "need," I am saying people who are pretty much fresh out or nearly dry. Ammo, in this day and age, isn't a "need" for most of the people buying it these days.
.

And your proof, or even just evidence, is.... what?

What about the people that are actually relying on ammo for food?

What about the people that don't have the income to pay your self determined "4X" price?


Its mighty ironic that you're saying "allow the market to work" but you don't like how the market is working and therefore want to dictate how it should.

OMG :banghead:

It is practically the textbook definition of contradiction.

There, I fixed that for you.

 

[larryh1108]

Lol, I know what you are saying but I've seen it for sale in LGS, CTD and other retailers for the ridiculous prices. Also, on the online auctions, they are retailers selling it as well. This is not the true definition of black market or scalpers even though it seems that way.

For the record, I agree with your hypothesis. I don't have time to stand in line for 2 boxes at Big Box Store. (I don't need .22LR, btw). If I "needed" it and had to pay $50 for a brick, I'd rather have the increased profit go to the maker instead of Billy Bob or similar. If the maker used the extra profit to refurbish his equipment or to replace an aging unit then all the better. They produced it so they should be able to pocket the inflationary profit that is going to a scalper or other third party retailer now.

 

[Queen_of_Thunder]

I don't think many realize how big box stores order product, especially high volume product.

If Big Box store XX sold (actual figures) 365 cases of Brand Y .22LR ammo in 2011, they would place their future order for 365 cases for their projected 2012 sales + or - their projected sales increase/decrease of the new year. Large buyers need to let their suppliers know how much product they plan on ordering so they can align their labor and raw product orders to fill these orders.

So, Big Box store pre-orders 365 cases (1 case a day) from supplier X and then we get a large, unforseen spike in demand. Big Box store may get their allotted 365 cases by July and still have 5 months left to sell so they are now at the mercy of production like the other retailers. There was no "shortage" but an unprecedented demand. The real shortage is buyers are buying more than the producers are making. If you look at the YTD sales of all .22LR ammo I'd bet that we've produced and sold more than ever before in our history. So tell me, how is this a shortage?

As someone who has been in line at my local Academy every delivery day since January I can say your hypothesis is simply wrong in a number of ways.

First the ammo is not showing up regardless of the orders they may have had in place.

Second what manufacture is going to tell its big customers like Walmart Academy or Dicks they have no more ammo to sell them. Walmart has some 3,000 stores, Academy some 174+ stores and Dicks has about 527 stores. So you are saying that these customers cannot get additional product if they request it, that they have to wait in line behind a mom and pop shop.

Third. The manufacturers say they are running 3 shifts 24/7 every single day of the week. Yet the ammo is not making it to the shelves of stores like Walmart,Academy or Dicks. Where is it? Who got it? How did it get there?



Now lets talk prices. Prices on 22lr at my local Academy took a 20% jump across the board some months ago. This was on ammo whose prices that I thought was already to high to begin with. Of course if you want to pay more you can always go to gunbot and buy at the high prices being offered by the sites its listing. Hey maybe buy from some of the big online dealers on back order and end up with a broken order with shipping and handling charges applied twice. Nothing like buying a box of ammo(limit) for $23.99 then paying special handling charges and shipping bringing the cost to nearly twice the price of the listed item.



One thing to also keep in mind is there are many places without a large retailer of the likes of a Walmart,Academy or Dick's to shop at.

 

[itsa pain]

The price is already ridiculous.

I'm holding about 750 rnds. If I use it just for hunting it should take me to the grave.

I refuse to buy at the current prices, they can keep it.

Get a good 22 cal air rifle. I own a RWS M48, kills small game right up to Coon and Fox.
Pellets are still cheap too.

If people didn't buy at these prices the cost would come down.

Sssh don't let the word get out about pellet guns there will be a run on the guns and pellets lol

 

[larryh1108]

As someone who has been in line at my local Academy every delivery day since January I can say your hypothesis is simply wrong in a number of ways.

First the ammo is not showing up regardless of the orders they may have had in place.

Unless you helped unload it from the trucks, how do you know the store mgr, dist mgr or dept mgr hasn't told someone to put aside X boxes for the "regular"(wink) customers? If you think this is not happening then you are pretty trusting.

Second what manufacture is going to tell its big customers like Walmart Academy or Dicks they have no more ammo to sell them. Walmart has some 3,000 stores, Academy some 174+ stores and Dicks has about 527 stores. So you are saying that these customers cannot get additional product if they request it, that they have to wait in line behind a mom and pop shop.

I'm sure Walmart calls and places an order for 1,000,000 boxes and the supplier says that as soon as they clear up their queue they are welcome to the next million. When they sell every round they produce and have back orders for 10x as much as they produce and believeing that Walmart, etc get a price break for their massive purchases, they are in no hurry to not sell 2000 separate orders to sell to Walmart cheaper. It's not like Walmart can tell them to screw off because they'll get it from their competitor. I've seen hundreds of invoices marked "back order" so to the retailer, it's another back order and may show up next shipment. Walmart may be able to bully small companies who depend on them to survive or Walmart will order the same product from elsewhere but that does not apply to .22LR ammo, does it?

 

[itsa pain]

If you can find it, it isn't a shortage. If you choose to not pay the going price, it's a choice. If you REALLY nead it, you can purchase it. Is it a shortage if you want to buy it and add it to your stash? If you want to buy your son a .22LR for Christmas and need ammo for it, you can find it and buy it. Now, whether you wish to pay the going price is another story and one which you addressed here. There is no shortage if the majority of sold ammo (reg prices) is being put away for a rainy day but can be found at higher prices every day.

In the last 2 years, the northeast was hit with 2 serious natural disasters. One was a hurricane and one was an early, huge blizzard. Both times power was lost to a large part of the population. I lost power for 3 weeks. Many lost it for over a month.

Generators were at a premium. The dealers sold out their supply in a single day. The dealers without a conscience doubled their prices plus. If you needed a generator, you were out of luck. (I work in the generator industry). Emergency shipments were routed to the northeast but it only scratched the surface. However, 300 miles west and there was no damage or demand. Dealers sent semis to stores to buy their generators at retail and then sell them to the population at sick prices. They paid retail and the cost for the semis, labor, etc to get them there. People got upset at the higher prices. Some paid, some didn't and got angry. Who was at fault? The people who didn't already have one or the store that was scrambling to get them for whoever had the money? People bought them in FL and other southern states and ran them up and sold them out of their pickups for triple retail. Some people paid and they made their money. There was no shortage of generators in the country, just in the northeast. 85% of the gas stations were closed because there was no power. People could not drive if they had less than half a tank of gas because it was widespread. If you lived on the edge, you were lucky. I was lucky as I was out of town on business for the disaster for work but the point remains that the people who were not prepared paid dearly.

Well, guess what? 2 months later we get whacked with a huge blizzard on Halloween. The trees had all their leaves so the huge snow pulled down the branches and downed thousands of power lines. I was also out of town for business but there was a LOT of people who did not learn from the previous disaster and needed a generator for this outage. Did they pick one up when it returned to normal in October? No. So, now the same thing happened again and the supply for the northeast was still low from the previous disaster and those people either got no generator or paid more than the previous people did. Live and learn is a smart thing. Some people just don't get it and then they cry because they don't have power and can't find a generator.

what good is a generator with no gas? only ones would be running on natural gas which are very few

 

[Mike1234567]

I bought plenty of ammo when it was aplenty and "relatively" cheap... even calibers for which I have no firearms... for times like these. I haven't sold a single round but given away a few boxes/bricks as gifts.

I've had my cash invested for several years. If ammo becomes so incredibly scarce that it's worth a small fortune then I'll sell the bulk of it except what I might need for the remainder of my life... plus a bit extra.

I don't like scalping/gouging either but I'm tired of being the one scalped/gouged. I won't be a heartless so-'n-so (I'm watching my language) but I'll no longer be a sap to take advantage of either.

 

[jim243]

Much as they can be unpleasant, a free market beats most other alternatives.

This is not a free market situation, it is a false market situation, where the prices are controlled by a few trying to make it a black market profit situation. Raising the prices will have no effect on availability of product or substitute products, for which there are none.

As to the mfg's producing more product, it will not happen. The equipment for making 22LR is few and far between and no new machines have been made in many many years. There is no profit in making more of a product that is in such high demand, if anything if you want to increase your margin on a product, you make less of it and boost the price.

They can run 24/7 but that is about it. If you want to blame anyone then blame Remington, Winchester, Federal and CCI. It is not in their best interest to make MORE. So yell at them if you have to or can. Tell them what slime buckets they are. And if you believe anything else you really are a dope.

Jim

 

[plmitch]

A lot of whining over nothing here.

 

[Jlr2267]

I bought plenty of ammo when it was aplenty and "relatively" cheap... even calibers for which I have no firearms... for times like these. I haven't sold a single round but given away a few boxes/bricks as gifts.

I've had my cash invested for several years. If ammo becomes so incredibly scarce that it's worth a small fortune then I'll sell the bulk of it except what I might need for the remainder of my life... plus a bit extra.

I don't like scalping/gouging either but I'm tired of being the one scalped/gouged. I won't be a heartless so-'n-so (I'm watching my language) but I'll no longer be a sap to take advantage of either.

Not a thing wrong with selling your own ammo at whatever price you deem necessary. No one is being forced to buy, and your are not forced to sell. This is how adults carry on with the economics in a free market.

 

[Jlr2267]

There is no profit in making more of a product that is in such high demand

I can't even.....

 

[Gun Master]

High Priced .22 Ammo

OK, boys and girls, the price of .22 is too high ! The manufacturer, retailer, etc., all along the supply and demand line, have the right to sell at the price they want . At the end of that line is you, the ultimate buyer . You also have the right to pay (or not pay) the price you want . If enough buyers do not buy, for a long enough time, prices will drop . After all the hoarders have spent all their money, we buyers can buy again, at the right price . Any questions ? No ? Case closed !

 

[David E]

People who need 22 LR would gladly pay those prices. And, by "need," I am saying people who are pretty much fresh out or nearly dry.

Says who?

Why pay $50 for 100 .22's if you can buy something else for less? Many wouldn't buy anything, which the antis would love.

Price would wind down, eventually, and find its equilibrium (probably at pre-panic prices). But, the high prices would prevent shortages

That's mighty optimistic. If they sell 100% at twice (or more) than current retail, WHY would they lower the price?

At this point in time, rationing is an unacceptable mechanism in that it is highly inefficient.

The fact that rationing IS inefficient makes it unprofitable for the flippers to keep buying all that's available.

 

[Mike1234567]

Not a thing wrong with selling your own ammo at whatever price you deem necessary. No one is being forced to buy, and your are not forced to sell. This is how adults carry on with the economics in a free market.

RE My post you're referring to: Yes, it's ammo I bought over a period of several months at pre-panic prices. FWIW, I would never buy during a shortage just to make a profit. I will probably sell most of what I already have if it becomes crazy valuable though.

 

[jcwit]

Not a thing wrong with selling your own ammo at whatever price you deem necessary. No one is being forced to buy, and your are not forced to sell. This is how adults carry on with the economics in a free market.

There sure is if you are attempting to make it a continuing business and you are not reporting your profits and not collecting sales tax. You are in effect creating a black market.

I'm not referring to selling a box or 2, but the folks camping out at opening time every day and buying every box available to them then selling said items in the underground economy on a continuing basis, these are the scalpers.

 

[jcwit]

That's mighty optimistic. If they sell 100% at twice (or more) than current retail, WHY would they lower the price?

Simple! Sell more for a little less markup but in the end make more profit.

Wal-Mart has used this idea for years, now tell me it doesn't work for the largest retailer the world has ever seen.

 

[jcwit]

A lot of whining over nothing here.

No, just a long thread "100 posts now" of folks voicing their opinion.