22 LR Solution - RAISE PRICES THROUGH THE ROOF

[larryh1108]

Why would they raise the price in order to reduce their sales?

Why would they reduce their sales when they are selling 100% of what they produce. If they doubled the price and still sell 100% of what they produce, how are they losing sales and laying off people (in this specific instance)? The theory is they raise the prices until they sell 99% of what they produce. Then they slowly peel back the price until they hit 100% again.

Now with the retailer, they have x amount of stock at a higher cost, that they must ultimately take on the chin to get moved.

Not always true. The producer can offer rebates to customers and/or bill backs/credits to retailers for inventory in stock. This happens in the auto industry. The producers offer customers $500-$5000 rebates and also offer the dealers $500-$5000 for aging inventory at the end of a model year. No one gets hurt.

If the producers use this "false profit" to improve their machinery or buy new equipment where they can produce more, cheaper, then it's a win/win. If Billy Bob gets this false profit then the consumer does not benefit and those who can't find ammo at a decent price still pay the $50 per brick, if needed bad enough. Only Billy Bob gets the extra profit from this situation.

 

[WinThePennant]

Lets suppose for a second that prices were to increase. As of right now Ammo manufacturers are selling at a profitable margin, as are the retailers. All of the production is selling and they are humming along as a well oiled machine. Why would they raise the price in order to reduce their sales? That would be similar to throwing themselves down a steep ridge. An effort to raise prices on an emotional reaction type bubble, in order to get people to stop buying, would ultimately harm their company. An effort to due so would result in a sudden drop in demand, and also a sudden drop in income to the manufacturer and the retailer. Now with the retailer, they have x amount of stock at a higher cost, that they must ultimately take on the chin to get moved. The ammo manufacturer sees a reduction in orders and in turn income. Production is ramped down, including lay offs and reduced hours, all at their own hand. A reaction as such in response to a bubble will result in hitting a brick wall. There is nothing artificial about the current retail pricing. The only thing artificial is the demand, which is ultimately a bubble that will pop.
Same thing happened in 08 with the election of Obama. Like a light switch all 22 lr was gobbled up in an emotional reaction that resulted in a bubble. When that bubble popped, It was as though some one flipped the switch again, and suddenly overnight 22lr was back on the shelves.

They have big brain MBAs and finance geeks who can figure out (within reason since it is a moving target) the optimum price point that maximizes profits.

Presumably, the higher prices charged by the scalpers aren't causing demand to fall, so that argument quickly falls to the floor. Selling through Wal-Mart to scalpers to end consumer is actually creating a HIGHER price than what we'd have if Wal-Mart just raised prices. The scalper is an extra step in the process and does nothing but add another layer of transactional costs.

I don't have any experience with this, but a big brain finance geek could figure out the price of ammo that would maximize profits while simultaneously flushing out the scalpers by removing the margins they need to make their 'business' work.

 

[SleazyRider]

Just scored 3 boxes of 525-round .22LR for $19.00/each last night at Dick's, who saved them for Black Friday sales. The boxes were flying off the shelves, as the limit was one each; so people were bringing their cousins, spouses, and ailing grandmothers to each buy a box.

 

[cfullgraf]

22LR Solution

All the belly aching in the world is not going to affect anything with the price or availability of 22LR ammunition.

Between limited supplies, small gun shops trying to stay in business with less merchandise and the profiteers it is what it is.

The solution to the 22LR dilemma is to just whether out the shortages as best as one can. Spend less, shoot less, spend more time at other aspects of the fire arms hobby.

Prices and inventories will improve. When they do, begin a program of stocking up a bit at a time so that you do not get caught with pants down next time..

We can guarantee these shortages will happen again, maybe in 2015, for sure in 2017 assuming some clown does not go postal again in the mean time.

 

[docsleepy]

Several have pointed out the obvious. Price discovery is going on, at the level of the scalpers. Manufacturers could easily raise their prices, if retailers are still willing to purchase, and sell at a higher price.

The price control that is creating the shortage is at the level of big-box retailers, due to fear of public opinion. If more of us understood free markets, we would have higher prices, but available product, easing the panic, then lowering the prices. And the system would return to a new. equilibrium. Where that would be, no one knows until it occurs.

 

[JRWhit]

Raise prices by a multiple of 4 times (to reflect demand), and you'll see people who have a NEED actually buying the ammo. Instead, to keep good face, businesses sell it at "normal" retail rates and only the hoarders and scalpers get the product.

The proposal is to increase the price X4. I would assume $80 packs of 500 rds would reduce sales by more than 1%. At some point you would cross the threshold and there would be a sharp drop in sale rather than a gradual one.

They have big brain MBAs and finance geeks who can figure out (within reason since it is a moving target) the optimum price point that maximizes profits.

Presumably, the higher prices charged by the scalpers aren't causing demand to fall, so that argument quickly falls to the floor. Selling through Wal-Mart to scalpers to end consumer is actually creating a HIGHER price than what we'd have if Wal-Mart just raised prices. The scalper is an extra step in the process and does nothing but add another layer of transactional costs.

And those big brain MBAs have at this point decided that trying to follow that trend would be more damaging than gainful.
The higher prices of the scalpers are not necessarily selling out. There is no definite way to track that, given that they are sold ftf without transaction record. I nor anyone I know, have spent the legendary $60 per brick, and every gun show I attend, the $60 bricks do nothing more than take up table space and are not moving. Fact is that at some point, this bubble will pop, and just as though a switch was turn off, those value packs will seemingly just appear. If you raise the prices X4, you may stop the scalpers, but then you won't be moving product.

 

[WinThePennant]

Raising the price 4x was an off the top of my head number. I suppose I should have said, "raise the price to the new equilibrium point."

You are right that much of the product is not being sold by scalpers. Rather, it is being hoarded. Hoarding mostly occurs during periods of shortages, or perceived shortages. Right now, we definitely have a shortage. Fear of public reprisal is preventing retailers from moving prices higher, which only worsens the shortage.

 

[CatManDo]

Several have pointed out the obvious. Price discovery is going on, at the level of the scalpers. Manufacturers could easily raise their prices, if retailers are still willing to purchase, and sell at a higher price.

The price control that is creating the shortage is at the level of big-box retailers, due to fear of public opinion. If more of us understood free markets, we would have higher prices, but available product, easing the panic, then lowering the prices. And the system would return to a new. equilibrium. Where that would be, no one knows until it occurs.

Well Doc, I think I know where the "new" equilibrium would settle, bet it's somewhere around 25 - 35% of pre-scalping prices or $25 - $27. Isn't going to happen anytime soon, but in 2014, and that's if the closing of Lead smelting plants has no impact. If EPA has there way, maybe even up to $100/brick.

 

[CharlieDeltaJuliet]

I normally go through 500 rounds a month in the summer and a couple hundred in the winter. I normally keep a lot on hand. I have about 6500-7000 rounds left. This should do me until I can find them again. My rimfire shooting has really taken a hit.

 

[Queen_of_Thunder]

All of this is built on the assumption that the big retailers are getring the same supply as they did pre crises and therefore could impact market price by a decision to raise prices. Thing is the big retailers are not getting a supply anywhere near what they were receiving before this mess started.

The normal supply chain has been disrupted. Product has been showing up on sites created by dealers to profit while avoiding the backlash of their customers who are being told they can't get ammo but the dealer is selling it online for 5 times what they could in their shop.

People propagate the myth that its a few people buying everything up and thats simply not true. Those waiting in line more often than not are going home empty handed because either nothing came in or they had only a few boxes and they sold quickly even with the limits imposed by the retailers like Walmart or Academy. I can attest t this because I've ben waiting in line every Mon,Wed and Fri since January. There were many a day when there was no ammo and I went home emty handed. There were days I was able to buy the one box of ammo and when the limit was raised to 2 boxes I bought 2 if ammo was available.

So who got the ammo. Usually if you were one of the first 4 in line your chance of getting ammo was very good. Keep in mind this was with Academy's 1 box limit. On good days the first ten had a good chance at ammo but more often than not people left empty handed because nothing was coming in. Not a single box. The people making it were telling us they were running 24/7 but it wasn't showing up in the normal distribution chain. So where did it go. I can tell you one thing for sure. It wasn't showing up on the shelf at my local Academy because I was there every scheduled delivery day. Sometimes nothing showed up, sometimes a partial case would show up, sometimes a single case and on great days 3-4 cases would show up but those days were exceptions.

 

[docsleepy]

Interesting data, queen of thunder. Alternative dealer outlets makes quite a bit of sense, allowing the price to rise. But only if people can find them! Gun but.net did show me suppliers at four times the price I was willing to pay. I also have lots of reserve, giving small aliquots a way to new shooters. Hoping they learn from this shortage, and stock up also.

All of the complaints about Gougers remind me of the hurricanes in Florida. If prices were allowed to rise, anybody with a pick up truck put their generator in their truck and drove it to Florida and made a huge profit, bringing needed electrical power quickly to the state. Dealers who didn't raise their prices at least got a benefit in terms of goodwill. But throw in a couple of goody two shoes trying to make laws against gouging, and the supply shuts down. Free-market goes away, and the consumer is left with, wait for it, shortage!

 

[4season]

Lots of good points on this thread but some people are showing their ignorance also. Simple economics = when demand is high and supply is low prices go up. What is being called the black market is the real market where scalpers are selling what they payed $20 for 4 times the price and more. The real problem is at Walmart. Because they have such a huge buying power they bully manufacturers into producing a product for a price point. Every year Walmart calls the manufacture and tells them what they will pay for each item and how many they will buy. The manufacture is forced to cut their price or get stuck will the product they already have on hand. Rather than losing their biggest customer the manufacture figures out a way to cut cost and the customer get screwed over with a crappier product. I used to work for one of these manufacturers. At one point the company I worked for finally said "we can't make it that cheap" and Walmart stopped buying from them. They were left with warehouses full of product that they could not move and had to eliminate inventory to reduce storage fees as well as cutting employee pay and laying off workers just to stay afloat. Walmart uses the laws in this country against price fixing to get products for less. If the manufactures would band together and stop selling to Walmart at cutthroat prices the quality of products could increase, small business could start to thrive again and the pay rate of the American worker could also rise. Unfortunately the media in this country has rang this "price gouging" bell to a point that any increase in price as seen as a slap in the customers face and public outrage takes over forcing investigation. There is a much more complex problem at work here than the artificial 22lr shortage. This is just a symptom of a much larger problem. Until the consumer realizes that Walmart's low prices and consumer greed are the root of these problems we really are stuck in this downward spiral.

 

[danez71]

Originally Posted by ColtPythonElite

Raise the prices til the we quit buying and the stores flood with product and quit ordering to restock, then manufacturers can lay off employees and eventually shut the doors....sounds like a marvelous game plan.

Originally Posted by WinThePenant

When supply is high, price will drop, and there will again be harmony with price and supply. No one will be thrown out of work. Quite frankly, if we left this to the free market, this problem would be resolved in a very short time.

That may sound right in fantasy land but lets talk REAL world.

The housing market, with their "free market" wisdom raised their prices to meet the unprecedented demand (largely due to banks lending money so easily and thus helping to create the unprecedented demand) to the point that people stopped buying houses.

That created a flood of houses on the market. 10's of thousands of construction workers WERE thrown out of work. Builders DID go out of business and/or file bankruptcy.

That then caused the banking/financial markets revenue stream to dry up and then the near financial collapse of the USA started.

And keep in mind that housing market didn't increase "4X" as you indicate is the amount ammo prices should be raised.


Also, keep in mind that the general population then blamed said housing industry and banking industry.


Yep... your fantasy armchair quarterback economic plan has already proven to fail in recent times.

Here's a video agreeing with your statements and asserting there is no such thing as gouging:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9QEkw6_O6w

Hopefully, most people should be able to apply a tinsy bit of logic and realize that the video falsely equates "need" with "ability to pay"

For those that didn't watch the video...

So in the video, the person that has the "ability" to pay $1300 for the generator is determined by the author to have to greater "need" than the person that doesn't pay the $1300.

In REAL life, the person that didn't pay the $1300 could be a person that has a greater need (maybe needs the generator to run his ventilator) but doesn't have $1300 for the generator than the person that just happens to have more disposal income and has the ability to pay the $1300 for the need of (possibly) running his TV.

In simple raw reality, if "need" was determined by "ability to pay" we would not have starving children who NEED food but don't have the ability to pay.


When you try to simplify the complexities of supply/demand/market/economics to a 5 minute cartoon sketch video on youtube, the fact is, its going to fail miserably but still attract a certain following of people that want simple explanations to complex issues so that they don't have to think much.

 

[larryh1108]

Yep... your fantasy armchair quarterback economic plan has already proven to fail in recent times.

You're comparing the housing market to the .22LR market? Seriously?

How many people are employed in the housing market, including the construction workers, suppliers to the construction industry as well as the real estate sellers and bank personnel needed to close a deal? Hundreds of thousands?

How many people need housing versus how many need .22LR ammo?

How many people are employed in the production of .22LR ammo? 100? 500? 5000? Hundreds of thousands if not millions?

And you make your smug statement,

Yep... your fantasy armchair quarterback economic plan has already proven to fail in recent times.

where it is not even comparing apples to apples but apples to the GNP of a small country.
Geez man, I think your armchair analysis is totally skeweded and out of line.

 

[danez71]

....
....
....

........ Usually if you were one of the first 4 in line your chance of getting ammo was very good. Keep in mind this was with Academy's 1 box limit. On good days the first ten had a good chance at ammo but more often than not people left empty handed because nothing was coming in. Not a single box. The people making it were telling us they were running 24/7 but it wasn't showing up in the normal distribution chain. So where did it go. I can tell you one thing for sure. It wasn't showing up on the shelf at my local Academy because I was there every scheduled delivery day. Sometimes nothing showed up, sometimes a partial case would show up, sometimes a single case and on great days 3-4 cases would show up but those days were exceptions.

And this is what I have found too. The places I go to (that I can talk to) are all saying they aren't getting nearly as much. Not even 1/2 as much.

The one time I was there when one place was actually opening up their shipment from corporate, they got 3000 rounds of CCI minimags. That was their TOTAL 22lr allocation for the WEEK. And the previous week they got ZERO 22lr.

I said before recently...... there seems to be a supply issue as much or more as a hoarder issue.

 

[WinThePennant]

The housing market is an interesting study, but the real failure there was that investors/speculators, with the help of a duplicitous financial system, used "long-term money" for short term investments (flipping houses). It was inevitable that it was going to crash.

Ammo is not similar in that there is no financial wizardry going on here. It's combination of hoarding and scalping that is creating the shortage.

The point of the video is that price "gouging" is not immoral, unethical, or bad economics. In fact, it should be legal and encouraged when situations warrant it. During periods of great need, we all benefit from higher prices (in the long term). Higher prices encourage manufacturers to produce more. Higher prices also encourage end users to be more thrifty with their use of resources and future purchases. All this leads to more availability and lower prices at a later date.

The great thing about price movements is that you don't have to regulate any thing. You don't have to limit purchases to two box limit because price will automatically drive consumption lower. All the two box limit does is encourage people to show up in coordinated packs and purchase more at the lower price, which causes shortages for the rest of us.

 

[larryh1108]

I don't think many realize how big box stores order product, especially high volume product.

If Big Box store XX sold (actual figures) 365 cases of Brand Y .22LR ammo in 2011, they would place their future order for 365 cases for their projected 2012 sales + or - their projected sales increase/decrease of the new year. Large buyers need to let their suppliers know how much product they plan on ordering so they can align their labor and raw product orders to fill these orders.

So, Big Box store pre-orders 365 cases (1 case a day) from supplier X and then we get a large, unforseen spike in demand. Big Box store may get their allotted 365 cases by July and still have 5 months left to sell so they are now at the mercy of production like the other retailers. There was no "shortage" but an unprecedented demand. The real shortage is buyers are buying more than the producers are making. If you look at the YTD sales of all .22LR ammo I'd bet that we've produced and sold more than ever before in our history. So tell me, how is this a shortage?

 

[danez71]

You're comparing the housing market to the .22LR market? Seriously?

How many people are employed in the housing market, including the construction workers, suppliers to the construction industry as well as the real estate sellers and bank personnel needed to close a deal? Hundreds of thousands?

How many people need housing versus how many need .22LR ammo?

How many people are employed in the production of .22LR ammo? 100? 500? 5000? Hundreds of thousands if not millions?

And none of that is relevant. Whether on a small scale or large scale, the principles are the same.
Sure, if ammo mfgs went out of business we wont see the HUGE financial impact as we did with the housing market.

But the fact is that if any of the ammo mfgs saw a huge decrease in demand, they would lay people off which is something WinThePanant dismisses.

And you make your smug statement,

where it is not even comparing apples to apples but apples to the GNP of a small country.
Geez man, I think your armchair analysis is totally skewed and out of line.

Again, the magnitude of the damage isn't relevant. The principles and model is.

The model I presented IS a direct comparison; just on a scale of exponential magnitude. And it failed.


The point is, we have armchair economists trying to simplify the complex realities of economics to a handful of sentences and a cartoon video and expecting it to be taken as the "end all be all" solution.


It amazes me that people don't see the ineptness of such overly simplified explanations of economics and overly simplified proposals to fix it.

You (generally speaking, not you specifically) might as well try to explain the theory of relativity (both types) and also provide examples of how it works and the differences between to two in a single text of 180 characters or less.

Its ludicrous.

Originally posted by WinThePenant

The point of the video is that price "gouging" is not immoral, unethical, or bad economics. In fact, it should be legal and encouraged when situations warrant it. During periods of great need, we all benefit from higher prices (in the long term). Higher prices encourage manufacturers to produce more. Higher prices also encourage end users to be more thrifty with their use of resources and future purchases. All this leads to more availability and lower prices at a later date.

.

And have the ammo makers added any capacity beside running 24/7?

No

 

[larryh1108]

It's only relevant because this discussion is about a single entity (.22LR supply/demand) versus the big picture of economics and the global economy. It's not meant to apply to all markets of all products in a deflated economy, just one. I do agree that time will bring the market back to a new normal but this is just a discussion of the panic-driven market of .22LR ammo of today and nothing more.

 

[danez71]

I don't think many realize how big box stores order product, especially high volume product.

If Big Box store XX sold (actual figures) 365 cases of Brand Y .22LR ammo in 2011, they would place their future order for 365 cases for their projected 2012 sales + or - their projected sales increase/decrease of the new year. Large buyers need to let their suppliers know how much product they plan on ordering so they can align their labor and raw product orders to fill these orders.

So, Big Box store pre-orders 365 cases (1 case a day) from supplier X and then we get a large, unforseen spike in demand. Big Box store may get their allotted 365 cases by July and still have 5 months left to sell so they are now at the mercy of production like the other retailers. There was no "shortage" but an unprecedented demand. The real shortage is buyers are buying more than the producers are making. If you look at the YTD sales of all .22LR ammo I'd bet that we've produced and sold more than ever before in our history. So tell me, how is this a shortage?

The fact that the lack of 22lr ammo has been going on for a year now kinda debunks your theory; at least in part.

But you're not taking into account that they are many saying that the stores are getting as much as they used to... let alone anything more.

 

[jmorris]

This supply/demand imbalance would be wiped out almost overnight if businesses would raise the price of 22 LR by 4 times the normal going rate.

Wouldn't work, there are a lot of stupid people out there. Just a few months back people were paying $2000 for the same AR you can get for under $700 today.

I remember seeing closed auctions for A P mag that sold for $130.

No, the solution is for more people to make the product and maybe raise the interest rates on credit cards for the people can't buy things they can't afford with money they don't have.

FWIW the last time I bought .22lr it cost $7.92/550 and there was still plenty left after I bought the 40,000 rounds that I did.

How much is the .22 bringing now that isn't on the shelf?

 

[larryh1108]

Obama was reelected in November 2012. Newtown occured in December of 2012. The pre-orders were already in place and I'm sure the raw materials were already ordered and partially shipped.

If employee Sam remembers getting in 5 cases of ammo every week on his regular delivery and this week there was none or maybe one case, he'll say that the regular orders are short. Sam doesn't realize that his store's allottment was reached in July and they are like every other retail store now. Sure, it's not shipping like it used to but I'd bet their YTD sales far exceeds last year's by quite a bit. Saying that there's a shortage because it's not being produced like in the past is not true. Saying there is a shortage because demand exceeds supply is another point but it's the true point. We've sold more .22LR ammo than any time in our histroy. How can that be a shortage? I'd like to know how many metric tons of .22LR ammo are sitting in storage across America by private users. Is there a shortage? I highly doubt it. I'd bet there is more ammo being stored by the end user today than any time in our history. That's not a shortage.

 

[WinThePennant]

Manufacturers are probably increasing capacity, but not like they would if they could raise prices.

Again, the gun community is very hostile to suppliers, manufacturers, and retailers that raise prices during periods of flashpoint strong demand. Because of that, they are reluctant to raise prices on ammo, magazines, etc. The backlash from the gun community is no fun.

 

[BSA1]

"You are right that much of the product is not being sold by scalpers. Rather, it is being hoarded. Hoarding mostly occurs during periods of shortages, or perceived shortages. Right now, we definitely have a shortage. Fear of public reprisal is preventing retailers from moving prices higher, which only worsens the shortage.”

At last a comment from you I agree with although once again I disagree with the use of term “hoarding.” It would be nice to read a post without your name calling.

“Hoarding” for me is a term used by folks that do not foresee or believe that a shortage of certain products may occur in the future. They live on a day to day basis with the assumption that the items they need will always be available at a moment’s notice.

Others, such as myself, through the way we were raised, life experiences, understanding of past events, recognition of real dangers in the area we life in and education purchase items that in past have proven or will be in short supply for storage in such an emergency. We consider ourselves to be self-reliant and believe it our responsibility to protect ourselves.

For example I have lived in tornado alley all my life. Although my house has not ever been hit by a tornado we have stood on our front porch watching tornados form in the sky and drop down to the ground a few miles away. I have also seen first hand the damage tornados cause when they hit a populated area (google Greensburg, Kansas, Hesston, Kansas). In fact a F4 tornado that hit Wichita and Haysville, Kansas in 1999 missed my house only by one mile and destroyed the neighborhood we use to live in. (Once again I watched it from the front door of my house).

But since a tornado has never hit my property why should I have extra food, water and emergency supplies in my basement? Worse yet I am taking advantage of the market by buying extra food at SALE PRICES and even buying vegetable seeds so I can plant a garden to reduce my dependence on others. If events turn out to be long term , think hurricane, what does that make me when I purchased more items to keep a certain level of inventory?

What I have experienced on many occasions are power failures that directly threatened our lives. The longest one lasted two weeks but it happened in warm spring time weather so it wasn't immediately life-threatening. The last one occurred as a result of mid winter ice storm that let us without power for three days and forced us to abandon our home and seek shelter in a hotel that had power. After that I purchased a generator. But a generator uses gasoline so am I “hoarding” gasoline since there is not a power failure foreseeable in the near future? After all a gas station is only three miles away.

For most of 2013 folks have experienced shortages in certain types of firearms, high capacity magazines and ammunition resulting in them being either unavailable or available at higher than normal prices. Yet 11 months later the market has corrected itself so much (without Government intervention) that stores are well stocked with firearms, so many that big box stores such as Cabelas are running on sale at discounted prices, and as are magazines. I was in Cabelas this past weekend and the shelves were well stocked at least at at pre-banic levels with all types of centerfire ammunition and lots of firearms especially black rifles such as the AR.

Now all we have left is for some folks complaining about the shortage of 22 rimfire ammunition even though companies such as MidwayUSA last week are advertising it at near normal pre-banic prices.

The real question that remains is how many folks will take advantage (GASP!!! CHOKE!!! OMG HOARD) of the availability of firearms such as AR’s at discounted prices, ammunition especially 22 rimfire to avoid gun and ammunition shortages that have happen several times over the last 15 – 20 years and only 4 years ago.

 

[WinThePennant]

Obama was reelected in November 2012. Newtown occured in December of 2012. The pre-orders were already in place and I'm sure the raw materials were already ordered and partially shipped.

If employee Sam remembers getting in 5 cases of ammo every week on his regular delivery and this week there was none or maybe one case, he'll say that the regular orders are short. Sam doesn't realize that his store's allottment was reached in July and they are like every other retail store now. Sure, it's not shipping like it used to but I'd bet their YTD sales far exceeds last year's by quite a bit. Saying that there's a shortage because it's not being produced like in the past is not true. Saying there is a shortage because demand exceeds supply is another point but it's the true point. We've sold more .22LR ammo than any time in our histroy. How can that be a shortage? I'd like to know how many metric tons of .22LR ammo are sitting in storage across America by private users. Is there a shortage? I highly doubt it. I'd bet there is more ammo being stored by the end user today than any time in our history. That's not a shortage.

If you want to buy it, and can't find it, then you have a shortage.

Whether or not you have a shortage is not determined by how much is being produced, or how much you produced this year as opposed to last year.