Recidivism rates...
Armoredman,
I need to thank you for getting me off of my kiester to do some of my own research instead of taking other people's words for things. You were making the case that recidivism (re-offending) rates for murderers and sex offenders were the highest. It was worth digging up since the RKBA should be restored to persons on the basis of their likelihood of ever committing a new crime. So I'm doing some digging and throwing what I'm finding here since it seems germaine to the discussion and a good way to keep the debate centered in reality and not flights of fancy. Actually, it's been really easy since almost every time I check on a link to recidivism they're talking about sex offenders. Funny how little people are worried if someone's going to go back to selling 8 year olds crack.
The best summary I've come across so far is from Canada:
The reconviction rate for the first fiscal year release cohort was 44.0%, 42.8% for the second release cohort and 40.6% for the third cohort. These reconviction rates were comparable to other rates reported internationally and from other Canadian studies using a similar methodology. Nonviolent reconvictions accounted for the majority of the reconvictions. The violent reconviction rate was much lower; approximately 13% for all three release cohorts and the sexual offence reconviction rate was very low (0.7% to 1.7%).
(From the executive summary of a report on the recidivism rates of federal offenders given by the office of the soliciter general.
http://www.psepc-sppcc.gc.ca/publications/corrections/200302_e.asp )
The Oklahoma Department of Corrections has an excellent breakdown of recividism of offenders released over a 15 year period between 1985 and 2000. I can't copy and paste it here although I wish I could. PLEASE if you're reading this post take the time and check out the chart at the bottom, it's a real eye-opener:
http://www.doc.state.ok.us/CHARTS/recidivi.htm#by crime type
To summarize for those just skimming through this post (you're missing out... check out this page! oh well... I tried....)
The overall recividism rates up to a 10 year period were around 40%. Recividism was divided up by crime, and the results are staggering.
Out of 27 felonies listed, sex offences other than rape had the second lowest recidivism rates overall at 16.9% in 15 years covered. Rape came in only 7th lowest out of 27th at 20.7%, nearly 50% lower than the general average. Murder II scored 3rd lowest out of 27 at 18.8%, followed by kidnapping (only 19.1%) and then manslaughter (19.7%).
I did run into some higher numbers, but also found interesting things linked with those numbers, such as what constitutes recidivism. The statistics I'm using are for new convictions. I don't have a link to a word for word quote, but the testimony of one of the ISR (Intensely Supervised Release) teams in nothern MN to Governor Pawlenty's commission on sex offending was summed up to me like this: "50% of the guys we get out of prison go back. Most of those are for violating no-drink orders, seeing their families, or doing drugs. Only 1% of them go back for committing a new sex offense."
To look at nationwide statistics, I found an interesting quote on the website of the American Psychological Association. Needless to say they probably have access to a lot of data on the topic.
"In the 1980s, American states made the decision that sex offenders were not sick; they were bad," LaFond says. "Some states decided to offer treatment, but there wasn't much hope that it would work. Now, however, there's an emerging optimism that psychologists can deal with these people and offer alternatives to continued incarceration."
Some of that optimism comes from a meta-analysis on the effectiveness of treatment for sex offenders published in Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment (Vol. 14, No. 2) in 2002. That analysis showed for the first time a significant difference between recidivism rates for sex offenders who were treated and those who were not, says psychologist R. Karl Hanson, PhD, lead author of the study and senior researcher for the Solicitor General Canada--the government agency that manages Canadian courts and corrections.
The study revealed, among the most recent research samples, sexual recidivism rates of 17.3 percent for untreated offenders, compared with 9.9 percent for treated offenders. Though that's not a large reduction, the large sample size and widely agreed-upon research methods make it statistically reliable and of practical significance, Hanson says.
That's from their journal online.
http://www.apa.org/monitor/julaug03/newhope.html
I'm not saying this to undermine the validity of your personal experience. I can only imagine how much recidivism you see in the SO block. Then again, here in MN, the DOC reports that about 70% of sex offenders recieve jail sentences and probation, and are not imprisoned (amazing what one finds when he spends 3 hours digging through the internet for the sake of THR). So, you'd be dealing with the worst third of the lot! For my part, I want to thank you and all the other corrections officers willing to do such a low paying, dangerous, and often thankless job.
But... I've done my digging and the numbers I've found bear out what I've heard from my PO and others about murderers and sex offenders. How ironic is it that if we're talking about the felons most likely to be safer in the future, the people we here demonized all the time are the ones who are statistically far less likely to cause future problems.
Copernicus here I come....