SHTF: Point/Counterpoint

[Squidward]

Out of curiousity I typed in "SHTF" in a search. It revealed 129 pages of threads on this topic. It appears many are concerned with a SHTF scenario. But what if you are someone who doesn't think it will happen in your lifetime?

What firearms do you have (and maybe why) if you aren't part of TEOTWAWKI/SHTF group.

I do expect some flames. Go ahead, it's OK!

 

[carpediem]

Probably the same ones you'd have if you were a SHTFanatic. Now with regards to quantities of ammo, on the other hand....

Criteria for a SHTF gun: cheap, commonplace and affordable ammo, reliable, rugged, stopping power. Oh, wait. Those are my criteria for a "normal" gun as well

There are a couple of firearms on my wish list that are less-than ideally suited for SHTF, however: mouseguns, bolt-action .22lr, NAA .32H&R. Why? Because civilization is built on the sublimation of firepower

 

[CleverNickname]

I depends on what you consider "SHTF" to be. SHTF does not necessarily mean "UN blue helmets are invading"/"rabid unicorns are on the loose".

For example, I'd consider the massive evacuation we had here in Houston for Hurricane Rita last year to be SHTF.

 

[RockyMtnTactical]

SHTF is inevitable and it comes in a variety of sizes... Katrina is a small/minor SHTF IMO.

Most of us have all the guns we need or SHTF, but most of us don't have the food, water, fuel, etc... for SHTF.

It's a reality though. Think if our oil supply got cut off somehow. You cannot go anywhere... the trucks can't take food to the grocery store... it would be total chaos. We become too dependant on the govt to make everything better... why do you think everyone involved in Katrina bitched about not getting help from the govt? Because that's where they were used to getting everything from...

If we truly wanted less govt and more freedoms, we'd start taking care of ourselves and stop depending on the govt to always make it better...

 

[normbal]

"But what if you are someone who doesn't think it will happen in your lifetime? "

At least be prepared to bend over, pass the KY and squeal like a pig.

No, really, anyone who isn't preparing for at least a one year siege/post-apocalyptic survival scenario (urban, suburban, rural) has their head up their ass or is ready to let the Democrats negotiate with al qaida (oh, they're already doing that? never mind).

They will be treated like zombies by the rest of us.

-nb

 

[Medusa]

True SHTF scenario here is open war against highly trained adversary, either Russia - worst case, but pretty unlikely - or terrorists, which makes the war a pretty limited one, but assymetrical and highly unpredictable.

SHTF in civilian world? If the mobsters open up on eachother and we're caught in the middle we're pretty canned anyway. I could take some with me, but survival would be iffy ("girl hates to travel alone, you know" if to parafrase).

Against an armed criminal(s) in my territories? This kinds of events are quite rare in this area, but if it ever is going to happen my primary mission is the survival of my family, other innocents are secondary and everybody else expendable. Mission is accomplished if the enemy is either dispatched or running away screaming like a girl. To grant it I'll make everything I can to get the point across - they chose the WRONG place to broke in.

I personally don't see the point of accumulating weapons and thousands of rounds of ammo for some fictional SHTF scenario. I think the weapon and ammo count should correspond to the typical threat expected. IF the neighbourhood is known for having the heavily armed and armoured gangs running rampant, nothing less than assault rifle or light MG would do, preferred would be heavy MG or IFV on the driveway; some rare lone intruder could be dispatched with sidearm/shottie. I prefer to keep as few weapons as possible, to be able to haul them out if nessessary, namely FN 57 with 100 rounds, AG36K with, say, 10 mags and 5 HEDPs, plus couple of smokes and occasional flashbang. I could run pretty far with them, yet be able to perform as expected and needed.

 

[Firehand]

If you mean a real 'end of the world', that's one thing; weather/terrorist attack/geological incident related, is another. And I think doubting the latter could happen is insane, there are too many cases every year of people being caught in one or the other. Doesn't mean you're preparing for EOTW, just preparing for dealing with the situation until it settles down/clears.

And as Carpedeim says, if not preparing for that, same guns you might otherwise; just with a different outlook for uses. And possibly different ammo needs/wants.

 

[springmom]

Oh, I don't know...a Ruger 10/22 for SHTF would be ok. For one thing, you could carry a WHOLE lot more rounds in a bug out bag than you could for my .223 or DH's .30 carbine. With a good scope on it....that could work.

The only thing that differentiates a non-SHTF gun, IMO, is it not being a semiauto. I can't see my SRH being a SHTF sort of gun. But I certainly would take either my BHP or Kimber for backup to my rifle and shotgun.

At any rate, the original question had to do with NOT being a SHTF sort of thinker. You get guns for whatever purpose you have in mind, including "just because". My hunting rifle is not the sort of gun I'd be likely to try to use against swarming hordes of whoever. My AR-15...is great fun at the range and will be fun for varminting and is a "just because Nancy Pelosi doesn't want me to have one" gun. And it would be good for SHTF too

But I own a SRH for hunting, as well as the Remington 700 in .243. The Beretta Urika is for hunting and trap/skeet. The handguns are for personal defense and target shooting.

Springmom

 

['Card]

I've said it before on this forum, and I'm sure I'll say it again.

I think most people spend way too much time worrying about SHTF equipment, and not nearly enough time thinking about SHTF knowledge. As far as I'm concerned if things ever do come apart at the seams, then knowing how to field dress, skin and butcher a game animal, or tend a garden, or harvest naturally-growing food sources, or finding safe drinking water will be much more important than owning exactly the right tacticool hardware.

But this is a gun forum, and talk about non-gun subjects doesn't really fit in here, so I stay out of most of the SHTF discussions.

 

[Deanimator]

But what if you are someone who doesn't think it will happen in your lifetime?

Anyone who doesn't think it will happen in their lifetime, is not just stupid, they're blind... unless Hurricane Katrina was a hoax.

It's happened. It just hasn't happened to YOU... yet.

 

[zinj]

If I may quote myself from another recent thread:

I think you make a good point. Some people seem to have this vision that when the SHTF Slayer's "South of Heaven" kicks on, the sky turns black, and people throw on torn leather jackets, tight pants and jackboots to start executing human wave attacks against the few pure of heart.

I think the guy in the article I linked to makes a good point. Somebody (sane) isn't going to be sitting on the roof of their house with a high powered rifle repelling invaders. There are so many other things to do, like secure water supplies and repair any damage to your residence. You still need to eat, sleep, and use the toilet.

Water is something I almost never see discussed. What happens if a water main breaks? For those on wells, what about when the power is out for an extended time? Where will they get drinking water, do they have any purification gear?

Of course I cannot really blame the focus on firearms, after all this is a firearms forum. But all too often I see or read about someone's preparations and I just shake my head, as at best they will find themselves struggling, over burdened yet poorly equipped; there is the distinct possibility they are going to end up on the wrong side of the grass due to their choices.

And here is a site from a guy who lives in Argentina and how he dealt with a long term SHTF situation in the form of an economic collapse:

http://baxter.redirectme.net:81/tmp/shtf_argentina.htm

I will write a much longer post with many of my musings on peoples theories and preparations for SHTF later, providing the mods don't tire of this thread.

 

[1911JMB]

"It's a reality though. Think if our oil supply got cut off somehow. You cannot go anywhere... the trucks can't take food to the grocery store... it would be total chaos."

There are 3 things you need to completely stop buying gasoline, probably a bigger fuel pump, new fuel injectors, and a moonshine still. All E85 is is whiskey with gas added so you can't drink it.

 

[RockyMtnTactical]

There are 3 things you need to completely stop buying gasoline, probably a bigger fuel pump, new fuel injectors, and a moonshine still. All E85 is is whiskey with gas added so you can't drink it.

Yes, and everybody has those...

Plus, if everyone starts doing that, you still have to come up with the resourses to create this fuel...

There is no easy fix.

 

[meef]

Anyone who doesn't think it will happen in their lifetime, is not just stupid, they're blind... unless Hurricane Katrina was a hoax.

Not only was it not a hoax, it was a planned event perpetrated by George Bush.

 

[Imaginos]

Murphy Is An SOB

I'm with 'Card on this one. Knowledge counts far more than stuff.

A weather event is the largest and most probably disaster scenario 99% of us face on a daily basis. Most of those are predicted pretty accurately and anyone who has a TV or radio should be conscious enough to be aware that the event is coming.

Seismic events are the next highest probability, and your best defense is not to live where they are common. If you are lucky enough to survive the initial event and you are close to ground zero, you are going to be stuck with what you have on your person as you evacuate.

Terrorism is going to occur where large groups of people congregate. This means the event will most likely occur during the work day in a major population center. Again, if you are lucky enough to survive the initial event and you are close to ground zero, you are going to be stuck with what you have on your person as you evacuate.

Knowledge and advance planning are going to be more valuable than a BOB stashed in the trunk of your vehicle that is buried under tons of concrete in a shattered parking garage, or the BattleMax Plasma gun in your safe back home.

 

[PirateJoe]

Yes, and everybody has those...

Plus, if everyone starts doing that, you still have to come up with the resourses to create this fuel...

expident stills really aren't that hard to make.

and of course, with any situation like this, you'll be counting on other people not doing the same thing as you.

 

[gbran]

Situational awarenss is paramount. I live in CA, but you can bet it ain't in LA or Frisco areas. I'd hate to be in those areas during an 8.0 earthquake or a major riot. I have plenty of SHTF equip/supplies/arms, etc.

I'm near agriculture, mountain hunting and fishing areas. I could survive in my environment. Couldn't say that for many areas.

 

[RockyMtnTactical]

and of course, with any situation like this, you'll be counting on other people not doing the same thing as you.

But that's a huge part of the problem. What good does it do you to be able to have a full tank of gas if nobody else has a full tank of gas (i.e. the truck drivers who carry the food supply to you).

My point is, if you take care of yourself by stocking food, water, etc... you won't have to make a still and try and store up enough fuel so you can drive to Mexico and see if the have gas and/or food...

 

[meef]

What good does it do you to be able to have a full tank of gas if nobody else has a full tank of gas (i.e. the truck drivers who carry the food supply to you).

Well.....

At the very least it could come in real handy for use in your Coleman multi-fuel burning campstove while you hunker down ro ride out the situation, if that's the route you take.

 

[pcosmar]

As much as I prefer some creature comforts, I did grow up in these woods and can live off the land. It would be harder than it is now, but do-able. I have all the stuff I need to survive.
Having a firearm would make it easier. But when the SHTF the rules change. I will aquire whatever presents itself.

 

[thexrayboy]

The SHTF and TEOTWAWKI all are subjective terms. Each is interpreted according to our current situation. I for one am not terribly worried about
Mutant Zombie Bikers invading the county forcing all out hand to hand combat for survival. I do worry about loss of utilities for long terms and am planning accordingly, i.e my well will have a storage tank with a solar powered pump etc. I also realize that modern society makes us dependant on the 'Just in time' theory used for ordering/delivering of goods. That is why
I built my house to allow storage of staple goods for long terms. All this applies to not only the comet strike, apocalyptic events but the mundane gas pipeline broken, no fuel no electricity no groceries indefinitely situations.

Be a boyscout, better yet, be like the farmers of a century ago who knew how to survive alone for weeks at at time. Times like that are but a few
major social upheavals away.

 

[Speer]

I'd hate to be in those areas during an 8.0 earthquake or a major riot.

Yep. I live in the PRK and have thought about this many times. Those big urban areas are going to be a nightmare if/when the Big One shakes, rattles and roles.

But it was Katrina that really woke me up. I mean, better safe than sorry.

 

[zinj]

Here are some of my thoughts on stereotypical preparations.

First, people have this preoccupation with making bug-out bags. First lets look at what goes into them.

The problem with critiquing what people pack for bugging out is that each individual component is logically useful. It is when all of the components are combined that the pack gets ridiculous. Let me give an illustration

A PTR-91 might be a good choice as a longarm. It has good power, is reliable, and would be very versatile. However, it is very heavy. Spare magazines for it are cheap, so it makes sense to bring a couple along.

MREs provide a nutritionally complete meal that requires no preparation. Energy bars are good way to sate hunger and boost endurance. Jerky is a tasty staple full of protein.

Cutlery is essential for even civilized life, and it only gets more important when SHTF. A Swiss Army knife has many functions, and folding knives are compact yet very robust. A large fix bladed knife can double as a chopping tool in a pinch, although a hatchet is more desirable.

All of the items listed are completely logical additions to a BOB, yet many people don't realize that you can go overboard. I have a feeling that most BOB owners haven't even tried to take a stroll around the block with their kits on, as they would realize that they would be left panting and gasping. The typical loadout we see would be something like this:

1 PTR-91 Rifle
6 Loaded Magazines for PTR-91
1 Glock 21
4 Loaded Magazines for G21
1 Ruger Mark II
2 Magazines for Mk.II Plus Three Additional Boxes of Ammo
18 MRE's
10 Energy Bars
4 Packets of Jerky
1 Nalgene Bottle
2 Dozen Matches
1 Sleeping Bag
1 Tarp
1 Magnesium Firestarting Bar
1 Multitool
1 Folding Knife
1 Marine Combat Knife
1 Hatchet
1 Compass
1 Map of home state from Interstate Rest Stop
1 GPS
1 Flashlight
40 Feet of Paracord
1 Medikit
5 Road Flares
5 Signal Flares

Now I need to note that this isn't an extreme example of a BOB. In fact, I designed this load out in regards to moderation! I reduced alot of the heavy or unessecary stuff that people carry, and added essential stuff that I rarely see in such bags. If I may make a list of some of the silly things:

1. People carry way too may guns and too much ammo. A guy on another board I frequented asked for a way to carry a twelve gauge shotgun in addition to the AR-15 carbine and auto-pistol he had on him! There are people who try to pack fifteen 30 round AR mags into their kit.

2. Too much cutlery. If I were packing for the wilderness I would bring only three cutlery items with me, a Swiss Army Knife/Multitool, a good 3-5 inch blade fixed or folding knife, and a hatchet. I consider the hatchet expendable, as it is a pig for weight, although very useful. That combination will get just about everything you need done, and there is enough redundancy so you aren't up a creek if you break or lose something.

3. Limited Firestarting. I rarely see people with lighters. Yes, relying on the lighter alone is a bad plan, but as long as I have backups it I'd rather "Flick my Bic," as >95% of the time thats all you need. Better to spend my time improving my shelter over using some involved firestarting method.

4. Not enough liquids. As the slogan for Camelbak goes, "Hydrate or DIE!" Any experienced hiker has witnessed the effects of dehydration on either themselves or others. If you are exerting yourself expect to drink a gallon a day.

5. No Rain Gear. Never seen it in a BOB. At best you are miserable, and in many conditions you will get hypothermia.

6. Poor shelter and insulation. People don't seem to realize that a tent is a much more hospitable shelter than a lean to made of logs. Tend to skimp on warm clothing too. Try this for a test, in summer try to sleep on the ground in just your day clothes. I'd bet there isn't much beauty sleep going on. At least a blanket would help.

7. No cookware. People pack stuff like rice, beans or any number of foodstuffs that need preparation before consumption and neglect to bring something to cook it in. Kits are often lacking in utensils too.

8. No extra batteries for electronic devices. Hello!

9. Too much useless crap, or stuff so limited in application it is just dead weight. Gear like gas masks, heavier hand tools, and personal vanity stuff (read tacticool).

10. NO TP!

This is just a quick list of common flaws in BOBs, and I'm sure people could point out tons more. People overload these things and still find them wanting because a person can only carry so much.

Does the BOB even have a place? How useful really is it?

The concept behind a BOB is a set of supplies that will allow the user to survive a journey through areas torn by unrest to a relatively safe location. It should be self sufficient, and most users have the goal of being able to grab the thing and evacuate the area before routes of travel lock up in a panic.

The problem with this is that there seem to be two kinds of scenarios in SHTF situations. In the first there is reasonable advanced warning. Hurricanes fall into this category. There is a day or two to evacuate, and transportation doesn't heavily foul up until the disaster is immenent.

In such a situation you would have at least an hour or two to load up a much more comprehensive survival load that is offered in a simple BOB. I am not saying that you shouldn't be prepared, but having a list compiled beforehand of all of the items you are going to load into your vehicle before you hit the road will prepare you much better than the BOB.

The other SHTF scenario is the sudden incident. Things like earth quakes, most rioting, and terrorist actions fall into this category. There is no warning, so a basic BOB could be useful if you need to drop what you are doing and get moving. Still, many kits are too basic.

There should be a backpack with all of the stuff you need to survive on foot, but there should also be a couple of rubbermaids containing stuff that isn't critical to survival but will be needed at your destination. This stuff gets thrown in the vehicle, and you should only need the backpack unit if you are forced to ditch the car.

All to often people pack their BOB, yet have no destination. Yes, I know many people have friends or relatives they will travel to, or own a second residence they can relocate to, but many people just think they will be able to head to the hills when SHTF.

Ever notice how there are terms like Country Living, and Backwoods Living, yet there is Wilderness Survival? Thats because you aren't living in the wild, you are fighting every day to stay alive. Even living in a shed is quite a step up. At least you have a real shelter from the elements.

Bugging Out with no where to go is nigh suicide. Even the most thorough kit won't help you alot when it is 29* out in freezing rain. Think about all the reports of lost hunters and backcpackers and all of the trials and tribulations they went through. Notice how they almost always would have succumbed if they had to stay out for another couple of weeks? Bugging out without a destination is like throwing oneself into such a situation with no route of escape.

Planning is everything. Maybe I will subject everyone to more of my ranting later.

 

[ocharry]

ya know i been readin all these SHTF threads,, reading the one this morning about buggin out and buggin in,,, and i don't know,, i get it,, we need to be ready to take care of our selves,,for extended periods,,, and if it really gets bad maybe some protection for self and family,,, maybe i take some of this stuff for granted,,, but hell staying here at the house for two weeks without going anywhere is nothing we do it all the time,,,i don't think i would ever leave if moma didn't want to go out and eat once in awhile,,, my biggest worry is that i'll be at work which is 56 miles from home and not be able to get here,,, to the fort,and that's what it is,, the guy that built this place was a brick mason by trade and let me tell ya he built it,,, 17" thick walls everything is brick,, block or concrete,,,we have water here,,, a garden,,,fruit trees,,, wildlife,, fish in the pond,,,horses,,,i try to keep the truck full of gass and candles and battries,,,, maybe i been doing it (getting ready) for so long i'm not thinking straight any more... one guy on the thread i was reading this morning was saying that everyone would be in the woods and killing all the game,, and that kinda spooked me,,,every butt head that has a gun will think he has turned into daniel boone and he can live off the land,,, now i don't have a lot of ammo stored up,, but i can make some for ya in short order,,,now i do have several thousand rounds of .22 if i need to leave where would i go,,,it's me and moma,,all the family is 7 hrs. form here,,,if we can stay here and it would really need to be bad before i am leaving,,, like has been said,,,, beens and bullets

ocharry

 

[zinj]

one guy on the thread i was reading this morning was saying that everyone would be in the woods and killing all the game,, and that kinda spooked me,,,every butt head that has a gun will think he has turned into daniel boone and he can live off the land,

He's right, unless you have quite a bit of distance from yourself and major cities (56 miles to work sounds like you might) you probably are going to have people bugging you if things go south. Stuff like poaching, breaking into out-buildings and stealing stuff when you aren't around, and just generally acting un-neighborly. You also made me realize a point that I neglected to mention above, which is unless it is a truely catastropic situation you are better off bugging in than bugging out.

Anyway, your mention of poaching brings me onto my next rant, which is some of the illusions SHTFer's have about hunting.

I have seen the statement "Bring a .22 rifle or pistol for hunting, it doesn't make much noise," many times. I have to agree that a .22 rifle is very quiet, especially with subsonic ammunition. The .22 Pistol is not. Subjectively, I would say that a .22 Pistol seems about as loud to me as a shotgun. Objectively the Decibel levels are pretty close too, so if you are worried about noise a .22 pistol is not the way to go.

Think about hunting on public land during the opening day of deer season in the more populous parts of the country. It is a madhouse, parties bumping into each other, irresponsible hunters shooting at movement or noise, and deer fleeing into private land. This is probably pretty close to what will be happening on any open area near a major city. As ocharry said, everyone with a gun is going to try to fill their freezer.

Hunting cannot be counted on to provide food, at least in the early period of a SHTF situation. Even if you are going to hunt firearms hunting is about the least efficient way to kill meat. Not to say that firearms aren't good to have around for targets of opportunity, but the real producer for a survivor is going to be snaring.

There is plenty of information on the web about snaring, so I will keep this brief. Snares are really simple to make, just some wire and a knot. Because of this there is no reason not to have any sort of snaring equipment in your gear. Placement is extremely important, however, so bone up on it, maybe do a few tests.

Snaring is so effective because it is a passive hunting strategy. Once the snares are in place you can do other things, stopping to check them occasionally. Most other forms of hunting require active participation, taking time that you could use for other things.

Fishing is also a great way to get protein. Just remember that passive fishing methods like baitlines are better than active fishing methods unless you need something to relieve boredom.

Again, hunting and fishing is not something you should be planning on doing if SHTF. However, it is a nice skill to have and might prove useful at some point (market hunting if the economy goes down the tubes comes to mind).