How do you define SHTF? What does SHTF mean to you?
- Thread starter El Rojo
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Moondoggie
Member
I generally think of SHTF in terms of some sort of natural disaster at one end of the scale and something like a multi-day power outage akin to the last one in the NE/upper midwest at the other end. I'm not on the lookout for a brilliant flash followed by the shock wave and I don't lay awake at night worrying about an epidemic of some killer disease.
For me, in my location and lifestyle, terrorism isn't an immediate concern.
I don't expect to have to defend my possessions against bands of roaming thugs, and I expect that civil order would prevail in my community in any but the most extreme events. No bug out stuff in my repartiore. I do have 28 firearms (and counting) and plenty of ammo so I'm pretty confident that I could discourage most folks that might be interested in taking my stuff without asking. My beloved is very competent with firearms as well.
Funny how I didn't plan to be prepared for any of those events, but as I take stock around the house I realize that my wife and I could easily survive quite comfortably for up to 6 months. Must have been that time in the Boy Scouts.
That's a very realistic estimate, which includes consuming up to 3 gallons of water per day. 240+ days of electricty from the generator/APU on my semi tractor being run enough to keep 2 freezers + 2 fridges cold without needing to refuel. Plus 4 freezers at my Mother-in law's house, next door. I could stretch that considerably via alternators/batteries/inverter/bicycle (I have those) ala "Soylent Green".
Whatever form it may take, I think I'm creative and adaptive enough to deal with it.
For me, in my location and lifestyle, terrorism isn't an immediate concern.
I don't expect to have to defend my possessions against bands of roaming thugs, and I expect that civil order would prevail in my community in any but the most extreme events. No bug out stuff in my repartiore. I do have 28 firearms (and counting) and plenty of ammo so I'm pretty confident that I could discourage most folks that might be interested in taking my stuff without asking. My beloved is very competent with firearms as well.
Funny how I didn't plan to be prepared for any of those events, but as I take stock around the house I realize that my wife and I could easily survive quite comfortably for up to 6 months. Must have been that time in the Boy Scouts.
That's a very realistic estimate, which includes consuming up to 3 gallons of water per day. 240+ days of electricty from the generator/APU on my semi tractor being run enough to keep 2 freezers + 2 fridges cold without needing to refuel. Plus 4 freezers at my Mother-in law's house, next door. I could stretch that considerably via alternators/batteries/inverter/bicycle (I have those) ala "Soylent Green".Whatever form it may take, I think I'm creative and adaptive enough to deal with it.
itgoesboom
member
Way too many situations to list that can be called SHTF.
Like someone else said, it could be something like being in the wrong place while a robbery is going down, or it could be something more serious.
Certain scenerios are more likely than others: Race riots are possible, large natural dissasters, or a terror attack. These are things that happen somewhere in the world almost on a daily basis.
I don't consider certain scenerios likely. I don't believe that the UN is going to invade us anytime soon, I don't expect the military to turn against us, I don't expect zombies to rise and try to take over.
Doesn't mean that I am not prepared though.
But preparing for a SHTF scenerio isn't about stockpiling guns and ammo, although that, to a small degree can be helpfull. Its about knowing likely situations that can occur where you live, having enough food and water for 2-3 weeks for you and your family, having first aid equipment and the knowledge on how to use it.
I.G.B.
Like someone else said, it could be something like being in the wrong place while a robbery is going down, or it could be something more serious.
Certain scenerios are more likely than others: Race riots are possible, large natural dissasters, or a terror attack. These are things that happen somewhere in the world almost on a daily basis.
I don't consider certain scenerios likely. I don't believe that the UN is going to invade us anytime soon, I don't expect the military to turn against us, I don't expect zombies to rise and try to take over.
Doesn't mean that I am not prepared though.
But preparing for a SHTF scenerio isn't about stockpiling guns and ammo, although that, to a small degree can be helpfull. Its about knowing likely situations that can occur where you live, having enough food and water for 2-3 weeks for you and your family, having first aid equipment and the knowledge on how to use it.
I.G.B.
To me, SHTF means a Sudden Case of Things Going Very Bad where you have to a) Not Panic, and b) Do something ASAP. The immediate problem will be fairly short-term, but could have long-term consequences.
Being caught in a burning building is SHTF, although not a firearms-related case, where you have an immediate need to Get Out.
Being caught up in in a robbery / assault/ riot / etc is SHTF, where you have an imediate need to Run / Hide / Fight, depending on the circumstances.
A coup or foreign invasion is SHFT, but far less likely than the previous two.
TEOTWASKI to me means a major change to the whole of society, that will mean significant or drastic changes to lifestyle to cope. This could be caused by, or the cause of a SHFT situation.
E.g. asteroid hitting the earth is a SHTF (immediate need to get to shelter / get supplies / etc) that would lead to TEOTWASKI (or even TEOTW) as a devestated society sought to recover.
The Third Reich comming to power was TEOTWASKI - as it resulted in a a total change in society and (legal) rights - that could and did lead to SHTF (when the Gestapo came to drag you away).
Being caught in a burning building is SHTF, although not a firearms-related case, where you have an immediate need to Get Out.
Being caught up in in a robbery / assault/ riot / etc is SHTF, where you have an imediate need to Run / Hide / Fight, depending on the circumstances.
A coup or foreign invasion is SHFT, but far less likely than the previous two.
TEOTWASKI to me means a major change to the whole of society, that will mean significant or drastic changes to lifestyle to cope. This could be caused by, or the cause of a SHFT situation.
E.g. asteroid hitting the earth is a SHTF (immediate need to get to shelter / get supplies / etc) that would lead to TEOTWASKI (or even TEOTW) as a devestated society sought to recover.
The Third Reich comming to power was TEOTWASKI - as it resulted in a a total change in society and (legal) rights - that could and did lead to SHTF (when the Gestapo came to drag you away).
Chuck Jennings
Member
To me, SHTF means that social order has collapsed. Being prepared for it means being prepared to be self sufficient.
Of course, I am currently in Seoul. Some of the SHTF scenarios here are close to unsurvivable.
Of course, I am currently in Seoul. Some of the SHTF scenarios here are close to unsurvivable.
TallPine
Member
I would have to say when the toliet backs up and organic material is geysering up out of the bowl onto the ceiling fan ...
SHTF is the breakdown of social order, combined with large-scale predation.
Having been through both the Loma Prieta quake in the SF bay area (no power for 3 days) and Hurricane Andrew is Florida (no power for 2 days), I was surprised at how little the social order was affected by fairly large scale disasters.
I suppose the reason was that reflief and resupply was no more than a short car-drive away. No one ever got desperate.
In both cases, there was no looting or predation (at least not where I was--I heard there was some with Andrew.) Just neighbor helping neighbor and all watching out for each other, the way it ought to be.
The LA/Watts riots and the more recent riots in Cleveland(?) were small-scale SHTF scenarios. So it can happen. But IMHO it would take a MUCH larger disaster than a hurricane or earthquake to trigger an SHTF scenario.
So I worry about it a lot less.
Now SHTF is more of a good excuse to buy another gun or some more camping gear.
Having been through both the Loma Prieta quake in the SF bay area (no power for 3 days) and Hurricane Andrew is Florida (no power for 2 days), I was surprised at how little the social order was affected by fairly large scale disasters.
I suppose the reason was that reflief and resupply was no more than a short car-drive away. No one ever got desperate.
In both cases, there was no looting or predation (at least not where I was--I heard there was some with Andrew.) Just neighbor helping neighbor and all watching out for each other, the way it ought to be.
The LA/Watts riots and the more recent riots in Cleveland(?) were small-scale SHTF scenarios. So it can happen. But IMHO it would take a MUCH larger disaster than a hurricane or earthquake to trigger an SHTF scenario.
So I worry about it a lot less.
Now SHTF is more of a good excuse to buy another gun or some more camping gear.
jefnvk
Member
Amend that to say 'When at least one are shooting at you or people in your general vicinity', and that's pretty much my view
Scenarios where you are solely responsible for your continued existance. Could be short term, hours, days, months. Could be long term, years, decades.
The short term scenarios are easy to prepare for, everyone should be able to live without electricity, gasoline, running water, and supermarkets for a little while.
The long term ones are very difficult to survive on your own, you need other people, some sort of community.
It is not the blue helmeted zombie bears I worry about but the sorts of things that have happened to societies throughout history which concern me.
The short term scenarios are easy to prepare for, everyone should be able to live without electricity, gasoline, running water, and supermarkets for a little while.
The long term ones are very difficult to survive on your own, you need other people, some sort of community.
It is not the blue helmeted zombie bears I worry about
but the sorts of things that have happened to societies throughout history which concern me.
jamz
Member
SHTF=when I accidentally let it slip that I got a bonus last year and didn't tell my wife about it so I could spend it on guns. 
Shalako
Member
The SHTF scenario that really make me nervous is civil unrest. You just play the hand you've got with an earthquake, storm, or flood, but crazy people bent on destruction seems way too dicey. When folks take on the mob mentality or are fueled by panic, the danger could be way too sporadic and volatile to predict a safe exit plan. Potential triggers for civil unrest could consist of controversial court decisions, sports victories or defeats, police brutality, sports hero mishaps, economic collapse affecting SSI checks, any old natural disaster, or a terrorist event. If the national guard or police is busy elsewhere, you would be on your own. That's SHTF to me. Fending off attacks from looters and arsonists could end up taking way more time than one person has. Working with the neighbors to maintain a safe perimeter would probably be the only way to insure your safety. You need to make sure someone is making food, filtering water, manning communications, maintaing defenses, etc as well as just duking it out with badguys. It really sounds like a suckfest.
Ol' Badger
Member
Maybe
The LA type riots. Yea baby, a license to go ape ship on the scumbag, no accounts in low ride’n vehicle with the music way to high! I wonder how many Toyotas a .50 will go through?
The LA type riots. Yea baby, a license to go ape ship on the scumbag, no accounts in low ride’n vehicle with the music way to high! I wonder how many Toyotas a .50 will go through?
geekWithA.45
Moderator Emeritus
My Definition of SHTF:
Any occassion when I've decided it to be necessary and prudent to publicly sling an EBR over my shoulder, and the neighbors are glad of it.
Any occassion when I've decided it to be necessary and prudent to publicly sling an EBR over my shoulder, and the neighbors are glad of it.
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