The future of guns & our RKBA in the next 50 years

[John Q. Pirate]

I'm interested in the general consensus, if there is any, among our esteemed THR members of where the future of our RKBA might be heading. Idle speculation aside, we've seen some recent positive developments (AWB sunset, the Heller and McDonald opinions, the defeat of major gun control proposals last year, as well as ousting CO state senators Morse and Giron over their gun control votes), but we've also experienced some setbacks (new restrictive laws enacted in NY, CT, MD & CO, former mayor Mike Bloomberg entering the fray with his billions to burn, and a hostile media campaign which aims to sensationalize every news story involving a shooting of any description). Based on the foregoing, as well as your own observations, in what direction do you see the future of gun rights in our country going in the next 50 years?

Complete ban/Draconian UK-style gun control: Either no firearms permitted to civilians whatsoever, or side-by-side shotguns/bolt-action .22 rifles are all that's left. Mandatory registration in all 50 states, confiscation of AW's, magazines, pistols. Harsh penalties/prison time for violations.

Increasing Regulations: Pretty much what we saw tried earlier this year becomes law - Federal UBC's, maybe a permanent AWB/mag limits, but current owners grandfathered. Pistols/CCW laws essentially unchanged.

Things will stay pretty much the same: Self-explanatory. Or in the alternative, gun-friendly states further loosen restrictions and get better, while gun-hating states get worse; overall, it's a wash.

Lifting of Restrictions: Holdout states like NY, CT & CA repeal their AWBs, and adopt a shall-issue CCW law in line with most states. Federally, things like NFA '34 and GCA '68 remain intact, but perhaps the Hughes Amendment is overturned.

Complete Freedom: Not likely to happen IMHO, barring some type of cataclysmic social upheaval following TEOTWAWKI or something, but "gun laws" cease to exist. No restrictions on number or types of gun a person can own, nor where or how they may be carried.

 

[crazyjennyblack]

THR hasn't been real friendly in the past when it comes to "speculation." This thread may get locked or something, but here it goes....

I think it depends on what area of the country. In the Midwest and South, it will stay the same or maybe lighten up. In other areas, probably an increase. Federally, they will keep trying their same old tricks and maybe get something through, or maybe not. It's a toss-up but overall I don't see things getting much better, and I think draconian stuff is only in the minds of the same folks who believed in 2012/SHTF/etc...

 

[xxjumbojimboxx]

Just voted for what I hope for.

 

[TennJed]

The big thing at play (that we don't know yet) is how will technology advance. If gun technology stays the same (probably won't) I doubt we will see any major changes. But if we have major advancements (like "heat seeking bullets" or Laser technology) then yes I can see "new" regulations to stop "new" technology.

For the record I have no idea if lasers and heat seeking bullets could be possible, I just use that as a frame of reference. We are in a fast moving age

 

[Justin]

As odd as it sounds, right now gun rights are in about the best shape they've been in decades.

Even though there have been state-level setbacks (CO, NY, CT), of all of the gun-related laws passed in the wake of the New Town shooting, most of them have actually been neutral or favorable to gun rights.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...s-enacted-in-the-year-since-newtown.html?_r=0

On top of that, NRA memberships are at an all-time high (over 5 million last time I looked) and record numbers of guns have been sold to first-time gun owners who, whether they know it or not, are now stake holders in the fight for 2nd Amendment rights.

That said, it's not all roses. Gun rights advocates have our work cut out for us, especially at the state level and in some of the more politically left-leaning states.

Anti-gun politicians are making noise about pushing through more legislation, and Michael Bloomberg has what amounts to unlimited funding to throw behind MAIG and into various political campaigns at every level.

If we are to maintain our rights, or even make advances, it's going to take vigilance, activism, and money.

 

[Red Wind]

Voted. Lifting of restrictions.

 

[HexHead]

I voted stay the same. As was mentioned above, the socialist anti-gun states will get worse, and the Free America states will get better.

If anything, I hope within the next 50 years we split into separate countries.

 

[Nom de Forum]

I agree with Justin. We are actually winning the fight as a nation but losing at the state level in some places. The battles to be won are at the state level. Do that and few politicians at the federal level will support bans. In addition to the vigilance, activism, and money Justin mentions, we need more women to think of firearms as enjoyable and impowering. Women cast more votes than men. Women are also more likely to vote antigun. So without being pushy, convince your non-shooting female acquaintances to give shooting a try. Make the experience safe but low key and confidence inspiring. Among many other positive comments from first time women shooters; many times I have been rewarded with remarks expressing how they never realized the amount of concentration it takes to do well and how much the fun it is to see the results, and how it is both challenging and relaxing. What really gets them hooked on shooting is realizing gender is no hinder to ability. Take a gal to shoot guys.

 

[19-3Ben]

Perhaps it's just my bleak view being in CT but it seems like each time the gun issue comes up, legislation ends up hurting rather than helping us.
I voted "complete ban" but I have no way to really know, obviously, when we're looking a half-century down the road.
I have a kid on the way, and unfortunately he's going to come into a world where we will be fighting tooth and nail to defend his rights. But the political world is becoming increasingly "liberal" (using the modern common usage of the word), and it's tougher and tougher to fight back that wave.
The political pendulum has swung in one direction and then the other throughout history, but my guess is that it will take a major event to change the direction this time. I hope I am wrong. Of course, no government can survive forever.

Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide. The jaws of power are always open to devour, and her arm is always stretched out, if possible, to destroy the freedom of thinking, speaking, and writing. Liberty cannot be preserved without a general knowledge among the People, who have... a right, an indisputable, unalienable, indefeasible, divine right to that most dreaded and envied kind of knowledge, I mean the characters and conduct of their rulers. There is danger from all men. The only maxim of a free 'government' ought to be to trust no man living with power to endanger the public liberty. Liberty cannot be preserved without general knowledge among people. -John Adams

I think the real question is, how long can our democracy last before it commits suicide, and what will happen when it does. That discussion is waaayyyy beyond the scope of THR, but would be an interesting one nonetheless, as that will ultimately have an enormous impact on our gun rights.

Either way, we don't know what will happen, so we have to FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT and if they are going to take our rights, make them do it inch by inch, and see who can last in a war of attrition. I know I have and will continue to dedicate time and resources to this fight.

 

[scaatylobo]

I voted "lifting of restrictions" as I hope/pray that the American voter will see what has happened while waiting for "hope & change" and do the right thing and elect those that mirror what true American values are.

 

[Ryanxia]

I said pretty much stay the same. I do think there will be a wider gap in the difference of each state, some adding more restrictions and becoming more like CA/NY and others loosening restrictions and cementing the People's Rights.

As Justin said, it will require vigilance, money and contacting our reps. Our reps need to be constantly reminded that many of us are one issue voters, their position on gun rights will determine whether they get our votes/money/support or their opponents get it.

 

[Nom de Forum]

If anything, I hope within the next 50 years we split into separate countries.

I hope not. This is just what our enemies and competitors would like to happen. The creation of several weaker adversaries from one strong one.

I am not trying to derail the thread, just balance it. I hope no more will be posted concerning these sentiments.

 

[MErl]

What have we really won at the federal level? Beyond Heller it has been fighting back restrictions. Is the win really that we have not lost? Heller just means that a complete and total ban will have issues, not that we couldn't be buried in red tape.

There have been gains at state (and minimal federal, parks) level for CCW. This is somewhat palatable to all sides since it usually involves licensing & training, more regulations. These added regulations allow us to do more but they are more regulations. Beyond CC what has improved anywhere?

I see the incremental regulations chipping away at rights. Once the chip is made it is not repaired, they just keep building up.

 

[geekWithA.45]

I think we're looking at 10-20 years of legistlative and judicial knife fights that will clarify the thing in at least two dimensions: first, what is protected by 2A, and second, the scope of that protection.

This will mean various things, but the general shape will be federal and state fights that seek to restrict gunrights, and counterstrikes seeking to expand them.

The biggest fights will be around the states "right" to abuse, er, regulate their citizens, especially pertaining to putting conditions on possession and carriage. The second biggest fights will be around "form and function", such as large capacity mags and "assault weapons".

At the end of it all, I expect A) mag fed, military pattern semi automatic long and hand arms to mostly survive and B) Robust right of carry is normalized nationally, even in Dark and Fascist states.

The elephant in the room, however, is the increasing possibility that some sort of political and/or economic catastrophe will put us into All Bets Are Off territory.

 

[76shuvlinoff]

Over the next 20 years, increasing regulations.
As our population dumbs down and goes numb... by the end of the next 50, UK style ban.

 

[CharlieDeltaJuliet]

They keep chipping away after every shooting that makes the news. Eventually they will destroy our right or bear arms. We honestly cannot fight harder other than supporting pro2A groups. It will not be a civil war, but will go quietly into the night.

More and more anti gun(not even gonna say liberal) are made everyday. They drink the koolaid. I honestly believe they will remove the right to bear arms. It will be legal under certain circumstances but very limited and the gun type will be heavily restricted.

 

[Fremmer]

The rights will be in a state of decline, just as the United States will be in a state of decline.

 

[MtnCreek]

Eventually it will be a complete ban, but I think it will take a little longer than 50 years for them to breed us out.

 

[Frank Ettin]

The question posed by the OP is pretty much useless speculation.

The question each of us should be asking him/herself now, as we approach the first hours of 2014, is:

What can I do to more effectively win friends and support for the RKBA?

The future of our guns and our RKBA will depend a great deal on how well each of us answers that question.

 

[SC Shooter]

The beauty of our country is that we have a free press and most of us get our information and knowledge from this source. With this comes a responsibility of the citizenry to analyze and weed out fact from fiction. This debate & discussion will continue on and on, but the balance will come back close to where it is now and has been in the past. I continue to remain hopeful that in this as in all things "Cooler heads will prevail."

 

[Twiki357]

I voted #3 (Stay about the same), but I think that would probably be an average among states. Some states like NY and CA are moving toward total (or almost total) control while other states like AZ, TX and others are lifting restrictions.
Complete freedom will never happen short of a revolution and that would probably only be temporary.

 

[larryh1108]

We have to ask what "the future" means.

I feel that the present generation, now in grade school, will change our gun laws when they get old enough to run for office. This is due to the brainwashing occuring in our schools right now,,,, today. With suspensions and expulsions for anything gun related, our kids are being taught that anything to do with guns is bad. This will carry on to their adult lives. Whatever changes we need to do has to start right now to prevent this from happening.

If Obama can get a few more seats in the Supreme Court, they will ram anti-gun legislation thru the courts. Then we'll have precedence.

If Obama gets control of the House and Senate, he'll push thru the UN bill that was recently signed which will, basically, ban all small arms.

Many states have become more gun friendly. Many states have stepped backward. As long as we get fools trying to be the baddest mass murderer known to man, we'll be under fire.

We can stop it by making sure we get as many gun friendly people in elected offices and to make those who are not gun friendly know their jobs are in jeopardy. We need to get on school boards to reverse the brain washing of our kids that guns are evil. If we sit on our hands now, in 25 years we may be the next GB or AU. It's up to us now, today. Tomorrow is too late. It will start with the 2014 elections this November. If we don't make a statement then, it may be too late.

 

[theotherwaldo]

I think that gun rights are dependent on outside factors. If the cities continue to decentralize, people will have more opportunities to experience rural living and are more likely to consider shooting and hunting as a sport. If the economy continues to tank, folks are more likely to consider hunting and fishing as a source of necessary food. If gang-related violence continues to invade the "better parts" of the cities, the right to self-protection will be demanded by those that have been denied this right, especially when the residents of other areas retain this right.

You get the idea.

 

[Dr. Sandman]

I voted for pretty much the same, but as Frank and others have said, a (large) portion of what eventually happens will depend on us. Support gun rights, get new people and children into shooting sports, don't be a jerk (you know who you are!) when it comes to guns. Be nice, informative, encouraging and fun loving when it comes to guns. VOTE! Support pro gun candidates! The future is in our hands.

 

[itsa pain]

As odd as it sounds, right now gun rights are in about the best shape they've been in decades.

Even though there have been state-level setbacks (CO, NY, CT), of all of the gun-related laws passed in the wake of the New Town shooting, most of them have actually been neutral or favorable to gun rights.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...s-enacted-in-the-year-since-newtown.html?_r=0

On top of that, NRA memberships are at an all-time high (over 5 million last time I looked) and record numbers of guns have been sold to first-time gun owners who, whether they know it or not, are now stake holders in the fight for 2nd Amendment rights.

That said, it's not all roses. Gun rights advocates have our work cut out for us, especially at the state level and in some of the more politically left-leaning states.

Anti-gun politicians are making noise about pushing through more legislation, and Michael Bloomberg has what amounts to unlimited funding to throw behind MAIG and into various political campaigns at every level.

If we are to maintain our rights, or even make advances, it's going to take vigilance, activism, and money.

I think the more people join the NRA the worse it is. The NRA never goes on the offense because there is no money in it. They wait until the antis propose a law then scare people into joining. The more people join the NRA the worse it is. If there was 10 people in the NRA that would be an indicator that we have total freedom and are not under attack