MT GUNNY
Member
WASR's are about to Flood the market. Crates of them are being Compliantizsed as we speak!
The Gun Market is Bearish!
- Thread starter maskedman504
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Auburn1992
Member
AR's on gunbroker seem to be back at where they were; atleast the bushmasters I was looking at are. Most are in the 1k and under range now.
I just walked in from the local gunshop. I asked a friend who worked there how buisness was going. He told me that they have seen a huge drop in gun sales in the past month. They went from 30 to 50 a day to just one today. There might be a slowing down of gun sales. Either the frenzy is over or there is a lack of funds. Either way it hopefully we see some price decreases!
The_Shootist
Member
Ha!
I was seriously in the market for a G30 - but since I haven't seen any .45ACP in stock at prices that wouldn't bankrupt me, i've been holding off. No point in getting a pistol ya can't feed properly.
That wouldn't be humane
I was seriously in the market for a G30 - but since I haven't seen any .45ACP in stock at prices that wouldn't bankrupt me, i've been holding off. No point in getting a pistol ya can't feed properly.
That wouldn't be humane
The local dealers won't openly admit it but they are having serious decreases in sales in the last month. I talked to a couple friends that are afraid they've ordered too much inventory thinking the feeding frenzy would last a bit longer.
I also have become aware of alot of folks having hard times wanting to sell guns to meet expenses. People that know I am a collector have been trying to offload guns on me daily. There are good deals to be had out there folks.
If you keep your cash for another month or so I think they'll be better.
I also have become aware of alot of folks having hard times wanting to sell guns to meet expenses. People that know I am a collector have been trying to offload guns on me daily. There are good deals to be had out there folks.
If you keep your cash for another month or so I think they'll be better.
JustinL
Member
Plenty of weapons here, but at rather high prices.
Ammo, however, is much harder to come by.
Ammo, however, is much harder to come by.
DJW
Member
Went to the gunshow in Belton Tx.(just an hour north of Austin)last Saturday. Saw some Bushmaster ar's for $899. Better than the $1500 of a few months ago. Did see a guy with a M1A, scoped with a few mags for $4500! Didn't bother to speak to any of the dealers, just went to visit with my buddies on the ride up and back. No urgency to the interest I observed. Folks were just looking and hardly anything was selling. This last panic was the worst I have seen in decades.
The ammo situation is what I see as the real problem. Still no primers available. Seems the bamster has helped to dry up the ammo supply in about 120 days! Gun salesman of the year. My local wally world still has nothing but some shotshells on the shelves.
All the suppliers of components I have been buying from for years are OUT OF STOCK and not taking orders. Sure hope this situation lets up in the next while.
Have fun and favor center.
Dave
The ammo situation is what I see as the real problem. Still no primers available. Seems the bamster has helped to dry up the ammo supply in about 120 days! Gun salesman of the year. My local wally world still has nothing but some shotshells on the shelves.
All the suppliers of components I have been buying from for years are OUT OF STOCK and not taking orders. Sure hope this situation lets up in the next while.
Have fun and favor center.
Dave
RX-178
Member
I think it's primarily saturation of the market, and the price spikes caused by the rush.
I think our current rush of military pop culture will keep demand for tacticool products and EBRs quite healthy for a while to come, although everyone GOT EBRs during the panic, and most of them were looking for one single rifle, not a half dozen or more.
I think our current rush of military pop culture will keep demand for tacticool products and EBRs quite healthy for a while to come, although everyone GOT EBRs during the panic, and most of them were looking for one single rifle, not a half dozen or more.
jad0110
Member
Well, a lot of people (including many on this board) stated that they accelerated planned purchases due to the new administration. That alone would seem to indicate that not only are we seeing demand drop back down to normal levels, we may actually see demand fall through the floor for a time before returning upwards to a more normal level ... assuming no other events spark the panic again.
RX-178
Member
I'd personally wager that it's too big an assumption to make that nothing will spark another panic.
Ed Ames
Member
I'm still ambivalent about calling the last few months a panic at all.
Was the rush to buy Nintendo Wii when they first came out a panic? No. Market conditions changed (a new product was introduced) and a sizable number of people valued the Wii more highly than they valued the money it takes to buy a Wii. As a result stores sold out of Wii consoles, "1 per customer" signs went up, they went on eBay at several times MSRP, and so on. It may not have been classically rational (because the value placed on being an early adopter is not acknowledged in classical economics even though it clearly adds to social capital and can be an outright bargain compared to other ways of gaining social capital -- that's a hole in classical economics, not an indictment of the behavior) but it was not in any sense a panic.
Same with black rifles (and guns in general) -- they aren't actually on the radar of most people most of the time. However, when the conversation is shoved to the forefront (as national park carry, the election, well publicized survival incidents such as Katrina, and so on all did), people who had not previously considered firearms important start to value them. Value owning them in fact instead of having them available in theory, because they reasonably believe that their need may come when the gun stores are closed or out of stock.
When they can't get them -- when the gun stores are out of stock -- that's just additional proof that it is important to have them well before any need arises. It isn't a panic inducer, it is a proof that the theory of preparedness is correct.
Add uncertainty about jobs and continued income and it is far from panic to prioritize a firearms and ammo above some other wants.
Once people have what they think they need, the market stabilizes at a new level (which, because more firearms are owned by more people, is likely to be more significant than it was previously) and then gradually shifts with market forces from there.
It's a mischaracterization to call any of that "panic".
Was the rush to buy Nintendo Wii when they first came out a panic? No. Market conditions changed (a new product was introduced) and a sizable number of people valued the Wii more highly than they valued the money it takes to buy a Wii. As a result stores sold out of Wii consoles, "1 per customer" signs went up, they went on eBay at several times MSRP, and so on. It may not have been classically rational (because the value placed on being an early adopter is not acknowledged in classical economics even though it clearly adds to social capital and can be an outright bargain compared to other ways of gaining social capital -- that's a hole in classical economics, not an indictment of the behavior) but it was not in any sense a panic.
Same with black rifles (and guns in general) -- they aren't actually on the radar of most people most of the time. However, when the conversation is shoved to the forefront (as national park carry, the election, well publicized survival incidents such as Katrina, and so on all did), people who had not previously considered firearms important start to value them. Value owning them in fact instead of having them available in theory, because they reasonably believe that their need may come when the gun stores are closed or out of stock.
When they can't get them -- when the gun stores are out of stock -- that's just additional proof that it is important to have them well before any need arises. It isn't a panic inducer, it is a proof that the theory of preparedness is correct.
Add uncertainty about jobs and continued income and it is far from panic to prioritize a firearms and ammo above some other wants.
Once people have what they think they need, the market stabilizes at a new level (which, because more firearms are owned by more people, is likely to be more significant than it was previously) and then gradually shifts with market forces from there.
It's a mischaracterization to call any of that "panic".
MagnumDweeb
Member
Don't know, I know an FFL guy who only adds 10% to price of anything he ordres for my students(people who take my course I introduce to him and we do group buys with the FFL guy's consent, mind you i get $30 a student from the student because he won't deal with people he doesn't know unless I'm there), and last Saturday I brought 16 students and 12 of them bought ARs. Mind you at prices two to four hundred dollars less than what the retail guys are asking.
I think it's people running out of money and the demand being met with supply and the demand is running out. Still plenty of people wanting their concealed carry permits, so I'm luckily still getting plenty of students.
I think it's people running out of money and the demand being met with supply and the demand is running out. Still plenty of people wanting their concealed carry permits, so I'm luckily still getting plenty of students.
maskedman504
Member
The Turh:
*post deleted*
re: It was late and I shouldn't have been posting here.
*post deleted*
re: It was late and I shouldn't have been posting here.
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Ed Ames
Member
The realities of a tangible product (production capacity, time to market, cost of warehousing, cost of production, transit time, etc) make a huge difference to the straightness of all those lines. That in turn means a small shift one way or another can have a huge impact on the equilibrium point.
Other than that, yup.
Agree 1000% Ed.
Like the housing market, no boom can go on forever. I chose to ride it out and not buy anything I didn't NEED for the time being. It looks likes now it might be ok to start looking, now that things are definitely straightening out.
Gonna have to wait a little longer for ammo though. That market is still leaning to the bullish side a little.
Like the housing market, no boom can go on forever. I chose to ride it out and not buy anything I didn't NEED for the time being. It looks likes now it might be ok to start looking, now that things are definitely straightening out.
Gonna have to wait a little longer for ammo though. That market is still leaning to the bullish side a little.
I'm just waiting for some better deals...or the next semi-local gunshow which isn't until mid-July.
Right now my want is far greater than my need, so I'll try to be patient rather than just buy at the exorbitant prices the local shops are selling guns for.
Right now my want is far greater than my need, so I'll try to be patient rather than just buy at the exorbitant prices the local shops are selling guns for.
AlaskaErik
Member
Ammo is still sold out everywhere I look. .380 is virtually impossible to find. Other popular calibers can be found sporadically, but sells out almost immediately.
Ed Ames
Member
Standard gun stores seem to have stock.
The last few walmarts I've been in had .223 (100 packs of FMJ for just under $40) and all the common hunting ammo (shot shells, any rifle ammo they normally stock, etc) but the handgun ammo was only .44mag of all things. That was several stores.
The last few walmarts I've been in had .223 (100 packs of FMJ for just under $40) and all the common hunting ammo (shot shells, any rifle ammo they normally stock, etc) but the handgun ammo was only .44mag of all things. That was several stores.
Sapper771
Member
They can jack their prices up as high as they want. When we dont buy them , they will be forced to lower prices or have a "going out of business sale".
I have seen some high prices online, but I have seen most at some local gunshows. I will be looking at a used pistol, then I will ask what they want for it, and the seller with reply with such pride "$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$".
Kind of silly , but that is capitolism.
I say we keep doing what we have been doing and wait it out.
I have seen some high prices online, but I have seen most at some local gunshows. I will be looking at a used pistol, then I will ask what they want for it, and the seller with reply with such pride "$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$".
Kind of silly , but that is capitolism.
I say we keep doing what we have been doing and wait it out.
The local gunstore is full of consignment sales, the county also has one of the higher unemployment rates in the state.
Been seeing a lot more of collector type firearms, and of course the overpriced semi autos, they were scarce but now they are overstocked.
Been seeing a lot more of collector type firearms, and of course the overpriced semi autos, they were scarce but now they are overstocked.
Ed Ames
Member
I suspect the extremest of the extreme stocked their caches long ago.
Titan6
member
They are kind of peaked out right now.
I am thinking by October the market will be bearish and by November in absolute free fall as people sell off in anticipation of Christmas toy buying. It would take some real "fire starting" by the NRA or the antis to get the market worked up again.
The ammo problem is a little different. Since there is still technically a shortage and people that have big stockpiles can't sell it off as easily as the gun you might see some great gun/ammo deals by late fall. Once production gets fixed and demand dies off the stocks will have to normalize a bit for prices to drop. I am thinking Jan-Feb 2010.
I am thinking by October the market will be bearish and by November in absolute free fall as people sell off in anticipation of Christmas toy buying. It would take some real "fire starting" by the NRA or the antis to get the market worked up again.
The ammo problem is a little different. Since there is still technically a shortage and people that have big stockpiles can't sell it off as easily as the gun you might see some great gun/ammo deals by late fall. Once production gets fixed and demand dies off the stocks will have to normalize a bit for prices to drop. I am thinking Jan-Feb 2010.
DJW
Member
I have no idea what you mean by a "technichal" ammo shortage. The shortage of ammo is REAL. Have not seen any .22 rimfire in months. Have not been able to reload .22 yet.
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