Time to stock up on reloading components again

[LiveLife]

One of my hobbies other than reloading/shooting is technical swing trading and according to Elliott Wave Theory, the stock market goes through many different cycles that span months, years to decades.

Similarly, I have seen reloading component shortage/surplus cycles the past several decades. Discussion of why they occur is for another thread but the fact is they happen and also the inflated prices during the shortage never seem to go back down to where the prices used to be during surplus times (Now I wish I had bought more primers when they were $12/1000 ).

To me, we have entered the period of surplus again and popular reloading components are obtainable again with lower prices. I have a monthly budget I set aside for reloading/shooting and tax refund is split between wife and I for our hobbies. The money set aside is used when I see good sales come up on reloading components and shooting items.

If you have a spouse who disagree with money you spend on stock piling reloading components, try this - our rule is wife cannot complain what I buy but she gets to spend double what I spend - this rule has worked well for many decades (even in 2014 when I went on a buying spree spending over $7000 and when I got home, wife smiled and said, "Honey, I get to spend double, right?" and proceeded to spend over $15,000). Now, she happily greets me whenever UPS/Fedex/USPS drop off another reloading/shooting related box.

I am well stocked again and only powder I am still looking for is Promo but I still have plenty left over from my last restocking and have 8 lbs of Red Dot on reserve.

If you haven't, would you consider buying while reloading component prices are low/on sale for the future? In the past 35+ years of shooting, I have only seen reloading/shooting component prices go up over time - now everything is double and triple what I used to pay.

Are there other THR members doing the same?

 

[AnselHazen]

That's a no brainer but there has to be funding in the bank to pull it off.

Hopefully I am in a cycle where it will be more possible. I just changed employment and it should result in a more steady income again. I have for the last 4 years been struggling to get 40 hrs a week and that really hits the discretionary cash pool pretty hard. I have just moved to a solid 40hr week and even after only 3 weeks I'm feeling the love.

I can't decide, do I want a bag of Jakes bullets, some other reloading components, or a holster since my new night sights aren't playing well with the one I have been using.

At any rate, seeing the supply stream pretty well full of reloading components, my new 40 hr employment, gas staying just a bit over $2 it looks like things are on the mend for now. But yeah, I want to have enough on hand to not worry if the grid goes down.

 

[LiveLife]

If you got stuff you don't need around the garage/house, you could sell/trade/barter for other things to buy reloading components.

Could even consider working overtime/second job on temporary basis to generate money to buy reloading components.

We can control how much money we generate but we cannot control when the next component shortage will be. And I have a feeling I will see more shortages before I die.

 

[papaairbear]

I am doing the same. I'm stocking up as my available money allows. Like you, I'm in a pretty good position right now but still have a couple things to get before I feel comfortable.

 

[Vern Humphrey]

If you don't have at least a slip of primers in each size and 8 lb kegs of your favorite powders, you're liable to find yourself right back in the old ammo shortage.

I also have moulds and plenty of lead -- in fact, I have loads for the .22 Hornet that mimic the .22 LR and .22 Mag.

And I have gas check makers that work on strips cut from coke cans.

 

[LiveLife]

I used to stock up for 2-3 years which grew to 3-5 years. Now, I am working on 5-10+ years.

During the last shortage, it was the final straw for 22LR and I decided to shoot 9mm carbines instead which I can reload for same cost. I am finding shooting 9mm carbines is saving money from shooting .223 so I actually have a net savings which I can use for more 9mm components.

I am currently stocking up on lead so I can shoot powder coated .300 BLK to further save on .308 components. Using .223/5.56 brass which is cheapest bottle neck brass further saves money over .308 components to buy more .223/.300 BLK components.

 

[Gearhead Jim]

Amazing and annoying about the long drought of .22

I can reload .380/.38/.9mm for about 10 cents/rd, and since good 22's cost about 8 cents, I've stopped shooting .22 except for rifles and just shoot centerfire.
Whoodathunkit?

 

[kcofohio]

Yep, about all I need now is rifle and handgun magnum powders. Maybe a few more bricks of primers. Bullets will be the last to work up on. I'm hoping to accomplish all of it by summers end.

bds, you bring up about bartering. I have more than plenty of handgun powder. That could be used to barter for anything I may lack later on.

 

[taliv]

I keep trying to stock up but the more I stock up the more I shoot.

 

[DudeRick]

I guessing the new "cycle" accelerates after the election.

 

[ArchAngelCD]

I keep trying to stock up but the more I stock up the more I shoot.

Yeah, that us my problem too. The more I have the safer I feel using some and shooting. Then I need to buy more but then I shoot more. It's a viscous circle I tell-ya!!!

Over the years I have found you can never have enough reloading components. Example? Who would have thought the last shortage could actually last 7 years and it's not completely over yet?

 

[LiveLife]

If you shoot a lot, then buying bulk on sales is the way to go. This way, being able to shoot more is my reward for extra work I am doing to reduce reloading cost.

bds, you bring up about bartering. I have more than plenty of handgun powder. That could be used to barter for anything I may lack later on.

During the last Great Component Shortage, I had plenty of popular powders and when these were unobtainable, people were almost willing to pay/trade anything for them when store shelves were empty of ammunition and reloading components.

At the height of the shortage, I made numerous "Reloader's care packages" full of unobtainium powders/primers/brass and bullets and paid them forward to family members/friends/coworkers/neighbors and even to many strangers on and off THR. As components began to come available, with the start of "Where are there reloading components" thread, they became my group buys and had them on speed dial so when components were available at good prices, HazMat/shipping essentially became non-issue.

When trade/bartering was done, I tried to make them fair and reasonable but believe me, when you have unobtainium, you definitely have the leverage in any trade/barter.

During the shortage, I have made many new friends and the PIF have returned many goodwill back to me.

You don't have to go crazy and stockpile - just be reasonable and buy extra when funds and sales come available then have a piece of mind knowing you are good to go for the next shortage.

 

[Duvel]

I started casting & coating so that I'd have the ability to make the bullets I needed, I perfected (at least in my mind ) it, and the process became an extension of the hobby. That said, there's only so many hours in the day!

My powder and primer stock is good, but bullets aren't anywhere near close, so I take advantage of sales / free shipping whenever I can.

For me there's a fine line between being well stocked, and being a contributing factor towards shortages (hording), and I do try to PIF when I can.

 

[LiveLife]

To me, hoarding during shortage by buying the entire shelf so no one else can is very bad.

I do not have any problem buying extra during surplus times when there are plenty of components at good prices for everyone and would not consider what I am doing as hoarding as during shortage times, I have simply walked past the shelves of limited components at twice the price I paid as I did not need them.

Be prepared and buy what you can afford now on a monthly basis so you won't have to feel bad when you read, "We told you so several years back ... why didn't you buy when things were plentiful and cheaper?"

It's simply a choice we all have and plenty of us have been through the shortages many times.

I think being prudent and prepared is "High Road" instead of cussing during shortage that no one has anything or ripping them off with high prices.

 

[taliv]

Yeah I agree. I never buy a store out of components even though I want more than they have.
If you do that you only contribute to prices going up. And obviously its inconsiderate

 

[LiveLife]

Good thing most reloading components do not have a shelf life (like bullets and brass) or have very long shelf life (like powders and primers).

If you want to look at it from a different perspectives, approach buying extra components as investment with discretionary income.

Buying more primers at $12/1000 (BTW, I am still using up those primers ) is like getting 150% return on my money. I am using Promo that I paid $87-$95/8 lbs and now 8 lbs of powder is costing me $160-$180/8 lbs so I got 80-100% return on my money.

How many investment pays 80-150% on your return? Not many with the exception of certain penny stocks timed very well and foreclosures bought and improved over several years.

 

[Duvel]

To me, hoarding during shortage by buying the entire shelf so no one else can is very bad.

***snip***

I think being prudent and prepared is "High Road" instead of cussing during shortage that no one has anything or ripping them off with high prices.

Agree 100%.

At times I've just found I'm asking myself do I need it?

It's an internal thing, wanting enough stocked up to be able to continue doing what I love doing during uncertain times, but not being unreasonable about it.

There must be an emotional component to it, because math is pretty simple - how much do I shoot a year x yada yada.

And considering the inflation side of it is wise, because it ain't getting any cheaper!

 

[kcofohio]

Yeah I agree. I never buy a store out of components even though I want more than they have.
If you do that you only contribute to prices going up. And obviously its inconsiderate

When all the powder flew off the shelves by 2013. I stopped at the LGS to look for powder. None. When I went to the checkout, there was 3-1 lb. of Titegroup sitting to the side. I thought, wow, I was going to get one. A customer walked up and said they were his. I know, 3 lbs. aint much. But it seemed like alot then.

 

[vaalpens]

I don't reload as much as a lot of the reloaders on this forum, but this thread also made me realize that I need to stock up on some of my components.

My calculation shows that I average about 64.88gr of powder per day and 11.1 rounds per day. This means for a 5 year inventory I need about 17lb of powder and 21k of primers and bullets.

Looks like it is time to buy a few extras.

 

[cfullgraf]

I think being prudent and prepared is "High Road" instead of cussing during shortage that no one has anything or ripping them off with high prices.

Agreed.

But if you have not already started to inventory for the future, you may be too late already for 2017.

Let the whine and cheez parties begin.

 

[FROGO207]

I used to try and keep enough stuff stocked for my normal shooting habits on hand for 1.5 election cycles. Now I buy a full weight Has-Mat shipment as often as I have the spare cash---sometimes combining purchases (splitting the Has Mat) with other local reloaders that are not able to justify ordering on line due to lack of cash for large orders. This helps them to keep their overall costs lower. If we all take the time to help each other out when we are able while not shorting ourselves at the same time then ALL reloaders/shooters win. The bullets and brass are not such a big problem. IMHO it is the lack of primers first and secondly suitable propellants that will stop one from shooting during a shortage. Those are the hot items in most shortages. Also to put it in perspective that is the order they could use to prevent us from being able to reload and therefore shoot if those items were suddenly made illegal to purchase. For years I have saved range brass and purchased bullet molds when the opportunity to do so at a minimal cost presented itself. It has just been recently that I have figured out just how good this strategy has worked out to keep me shooting when I wanted to.

 

[Nature Boy]

I bought another 8# jug of Varget last week (20# in inventory now). I didn't buy it because I wanted it, I got it because I needed it.

I think I overheard my wife on the phone talking to the mental health hotline. Something to do with OCD behavior I think.

 

[fields]

Now is the time! I have started looking around and buying on sales. Told my brother to get some primers and powder.

 

[thomas15]

I'm in very good shape component wise but still, starting in September and ending in December I'm going to try to put (for pistol) 12K of 135g 9mm coated bullets, 5K of plated 147g 357 bullets, 8 pounds of TG, 8 pounds of HP-38 and hopefully 20k federal SP primers. Also some misc JHP bullets.

For Rifle I want 16 pounds of varget, 2000 30 cal FMJ 3K large rifle and 3K small rifle primers.

I'm probably not going to get all this but hope to put a dent in this shopping list.

 

[LiveLife]

I prefer to choose certainty of reloading components on hand over uncertainty of anything.

Who knows, ISIS/ISIL is trying like heck bombing all over Europe/Middle East and DHS/FBI/Border Patrol/US Marshalls added to PD/SD and military COULD order like 100 million rounds of ammo for war against ISIS/ISIL if any bombing occurs in the USA. That alone could trigger a retail shortage for a while.

I think while supplies are good and prices low, stocking up is a good idea.