Time to stock up on reloading components again

[ArchAngelCD]

While I like to "play with" many different powders, some for only one load in a specific cartridge, all this shortage stuff has also forced me back to basics.

My handgun powder trinity is W231/HP-38, W540/HS-6 and W296/H110. I can load anything and everything handgun with those 3 powders and do it very well.

Rifle loading on the other hand is a different matter. I seem to have a different powder for each and every cartridge I load, sometimes more than 1 powder too. For example, I use H335 for my AR .223 ammo and Varget for .223 ammo shot in a bolt action rifle.

I guess if I had to I could use H4895 for most of my rifle loading but I like trying different powders while looking for the best for each cartridge. (It's a sickness you know lol)

Right now I have partial jugs of 12 handgun powders and 11 rifle powder on my shelves. I too have to spread my reloading powder and primers across several different locations to comply with local fire safety regs. (and I do so willingly and without hesitation)

 

[anothernewb]

This thread reminds me that I need to take another inventory of my gear. I'm low on boolits but i "think' i'm sitting well on other components.

 

[LiveLife]

After waiting for many years, Promo finally came back in stock with two vendors at decent price ($113 / 8 lbs) - http://www.thehighroad.org/showthread.php?p=10274220#post10274220

With Promo, my powder restock is finally complete. Woohoo!

Now, I will focus on building up bullet stock. I am good with primers and most pistol/rifle bullets but since I am anticipating more 9mm carbine shooting loaded up to 1500 fps, will be adding more 100/115 gr RMR HM RN bullets rated to 1500 fps.

 

[anothernewb]

Along the lines of this thread, Went to a buddy's in ND this weekend. We rendered down range scrap and wheel weights. Ended up with slightly over 1000# of lead this weekend. Using a wood stove. Very hot work. But, also fond Varget at the GS, so a couple pounds of that come home too.

 

[ColoradoShooter77]

Being concerned about future availability of 7.62x39 ammo, I hit up Cabelas sale on Red Army Standard 122 grain HP, 10% off + free shipping, worked out to $4.50/box. I bought 500 rounds.....gets me to 1500 rounds total.

 

[ATLDave]

And this is how the next shortage gets started.

We are our own worst enemies.

 

[Walkalong]

I went hog wild and ordered 1K .22 HPs on sale for $79. Five years from now I'll wish I had bought 5K.

 

[kcofohio]

But my 5 years was less than 6 months. In the fall of '12, Gander Mountain had pallets of CCI Mini-mags and Stingers. Only bought 1600. 20/20 hindsight at its finest.

 

[Walkalong]

Heh, heh, yep. I only bought 3250. My usual case of ten boxes. Got lucky on that timing. Gave some away, shot some, still have some.

 

[P5 Guy]

If it won't go 'stale' properly stored, buy what you can afford and store.

 

[ColoradoShooter77]

Just before Newtown, I bought one of those CCI Mini-Mag's in an ammo can.....$1600 rounds for $99 at Walmart.

I should have bought three! A week after that, Newtown happened.

 

[LiveLife]

And this is how the next shortage gets started.

We are our own worst enemies.

No.

IMHO, shortages start due to external events us reloaders have little control of and fear/panic that follow sustain the shortage. I have been reloading over 20 years and have seen my share of shortages enough to recommend to other reloaders to stock up when components are plentiful and "lower" in price. I believe now is that time.

I stocked up when primers were $12/1000 and wish I had bought more. I stocked up when Promo was $87/8 lbs and wish I had bought more. Even not factoring in shortages, inflation alone will keep pushing prices of reloading components up over the years. Supply and demand dictates prices fall when supply increases and now's the time to buy.

I stocked up on primers at $18-$20/1000 and just stocked up again on Promo at $113/8 lbs. 5-10 years from now, more than likely, I may be wishing I had bought more.

 

[LiveLife]

Rocky Mountain Reloading offers incremental discount.

4000 115 gr RMR HM RN with 5% THR discount comes out to $72.20/1000 shipped - https://rmrbullets.com/shop/bullets...15-gr-rmr-hardcore-match-round-nose-plated-2/

4000 100 gr RMR HN RN with 5% THR discount comes out to $69.35/1000 shipped - https://rmrbullets.com/shop/bullets...00-gr-rmr-hardcore-match-round-nose-plated-2/

I am even considering 12000 quantity as it will bring the cost of 115 gr bullet to $70.30/1000 and 100 gr bullet to $68.40/1000 shipped! RMR must operate on very small margin as at these price points, they are cheaper than lead/coated lead bullets.

 

[ATLDave]

IMHO, shortages start due to external events us reloaders have little control of and fear/panic that follow sustain the shortage.

And yet, with the sole exception of the 1994-2004 federal AWB, none of the various national fears have come to fruition since 1968. There was never any realistic fear that .22lr would be banned, nor that powder would become forbidden... yet fear within the gun-owning community drove people to buy those at rates, and at prices, that could only be rationalized if prohibition was imminent.

Is there objectively some risk of being unable to buy magpul 30 rounders, or standard AR's, in the future? Maybe a little. Is there any reason, other than unreasoning fear and predictions of unreasoning fear on the part of others, to go stock up on primers? No. If a shortage happens, it will be pure bubble economics... as it was 4 years ago.

Yes, you should buy components while they are available. No, we should NOT condition ourselves to create and maintain market bubbles (bubbles that are barriers to new shooters and therefore politically harmful) every time the general political climate is anything other than pure rosiness.

 

[dragon813gt]

No.



IMHO, shortages start due to external events us reloaders have little control of and fear/panic that follow sustain the shortage.

Reloaders 100% create it. If no one was buying then there would be no shortage. Yes, external forces cause people to change their priorities. But that doesn't change the fact that people have to be buying in large quantities to cause a shortage. The supply chain is on a razors edge and if doesn't take much to upset it.

 

[LiveLife]

Keep in mind that due to events of recent years, HISTORICAL RECORD BREAKING number of firearms were bought (many by new shooters) and the demand for ammunition simply outpaced the supply manufacturers were able to provide. And some of the new shooters started to reload as well.

This was one of many reasons why the "Great Component Shortage" occurred. Simply supply and demand where demand outpaced supply.

But this thread is NOT about what CAUSES component shortages but that IT'S A GOOD TIME TO STOCK UP on popular components as they are finally becoming plentiful and prices are lower again.

Will another component shortage occur?

Not sure but I am certain component prices will be higher 5-10 years from now. And this is the reason why I am stocking up now as I have gone through several component shortages and price increases the past 20+ years.

And no, I am not panicking. I am buying now with the anticipation that component prices will go up in the future.

If THR members and guests start stocking up on components, will it cause another shortage? I doubt it.

 

[LiveLife]

If no one was buying then there would be no shortage.

But reality is that a certain number of reloaders will always be buying components on a monthly basis because they prefer to reload than buy factory ammunition (like us).

So there will always be some demand for components.

I have a feeling many reloaders may be using up the stock they have on hand but when they run out, THEY WILL be buying more components. When that happens (and it will), demand will go up and likely prices too as supply may not go up.

I am simply recommending that THR members and guests stock up now.

If you don't want to stock up now, that's your choice.

We can revisit this thread 5 years from now and see where we are but my bet is that component prices will be higher even if another shortage did not occur.

 

[Reefinmike]

fun fact: you can fit 14lbs of HP-38 in one of hodgdons oversized kegs. that should get me a few boxes of pistol rounds loaded up . One unopened 8lb keg of 296 left, I intend to get another here in the next month or so, just need to sell a couple things to fund it. Buying powder is fun, but make sure you have all the primers you will need to burn it up! I don't want any kind of shortage to hit this fall but if it does, I will be able to ride it out no problem. I got started loading back in april of 2012. back then, I thought having 3-4 pounds of pistol powder and 7k primers was being "stocked up". Well, here we are, four years later and powder still isnt as available as it was when I started loading.


No harm in stocking up. Properly stored, powder is good for 50-75 years easily. I dont think primers can ever go bad on you. Heck, people have a difficult enough time trying to destroy primers. I have some 45 acp from 1942 that was properly stored and boy that stuff looks new and it shoots just the same. 74 years old.

 

[kcofohio]

People have to remember that many commodities are on a JIT supply. Companies don't like products to sit in warehouses or on stores shelves for a period of time.
If a majority of Americans decided to increase their normal pantry supplies by 25% (if that were possible) in the same week. I believe the stores would be emptied and there would be no warehouse with enough stock to refill them.

I can only imagine it runs the same with reloading supplies. JMO.

 

[JO JO]

^^^ good point ^^^

 

[cfullgraf]

If a majority of Americans decided to increase their normal pantry supplies by 25% (if that were possible) in the same week. I believe the stores would be emptied and there would be no warehouse with enough stock to refill them.

You just have to look at the run on grocery stores during threats of severe in-climate weather.

I have increased my inventories on hand since 2008 and it has allowed me to not get wrapped up in the panics and purchase again when prices got back to sane levels.

Amateur road racing is another of my hobbies. Around 1980 gasoline got in short supply one summer and gas stations along the interstates would close at night. I increased the fuel capacity of my tow vehicle so that I could drive all night the 10 hours home without needing to stop for gas. Just good business to enjoy my past times.

 

[ColoradoShooter77]

Right now I have enough components on hand to shoot 9mm, 40 S&W, 308 and 223 for 2 years.

I'll still buy components when I come across a killer deal, but I'll be able to weather any potential storm that might come.

 

[USSR]

If a shortage happens, it will be pure bubble economics... as it was 4 years ago.

Bubble economics? Hardly. There is no fear involved in a bubble, only euphoria as money is easy and feeling that whatever you are buying can easily be resold at a profit. No, this is simply supply and demand with demand outstripping supply due to political considerations.

Don

 

[Vern Humphrey]

You just have to look at the run on grocery stores during threats of severe in-climate weather.

I have read we only have about a 3-day supply of food in super markets, and about that much more at home. A rush on markets can easily dry up the food supply.

Thank God for Wal Mart, that anticipates rushes and re-supplies rapidly!

 

[Walkalong]

this is simply supply and demand with demand outstripping supply

That's it. Old shooters stocking up, folks buying more than usual concerned about supply, tons of new shooters added to the demand, etc, etc..

due to political considerations.

Obviously the catalyst this time around, right, wrong, or indifferent, but we don't do that part here, because it just causes trouble.