Venezuela’s Military Build-up: Who’s Watching the Guns?

Status
Not open for further replies.

loxety

Member
Joined
Dec 19, 2006
Messages
52
Location
Virginia
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2006/12/venezuelas_military_buildup_wh.php

"On November 29th, Venezuela received the final shipment of the 100,000 AK-103 assault rifles that it purchased from Russia last year. Despite the high-profile nature of this sale, little is known about Venezuela’s plans for safeguarding the rifles, which would be a hot commodity on the region’s vibrant black market. It’s time to start asking some tough questions about the rifles and President Chavez’s plan for protecting them.

The rifle deal is part of a multi-million dollar military build-up by the oil-rich country, which has also signed contracts for fighter jets and military helicopters, and is reportedly considering the purchase of Russian air defense systems, submarines, and infantry fighting vehicles. The sales have been a source of heated rhetoric, mostly from Chavez, and have strained relations with United States. Unhappy with the Venezuelan government’s lack of cooperation on terrorism and concerned about its military build-up, the Bush administration banned U.S. arms exports to Venezuela in May and pressured several countries to forego major weapons deals. Spain, Sweden and Brazil have obliged; Russia has not.

In each case, Chavez and his officials have responded with characteristic bombast and vitriol, calling the U.S. a “senseless, blind and dumb giant” and accusing it of attempting to “isolate Venezuela, destabilize its democratic government and prepare the political conditions for an attack."

While Chavez’s colorful insults steal the headlines, the issue of greatest importance—the influx of thousands of rifles and millions of rounds of ammunition into a region rife with black market arms trafficking—has received scant meaningful attention. The illicit arms trade stocks the arsenals of Colombian rebels and international narcotics traffickers, and the Venezuelan military has already inadvertently contributed dozens of its old FAL assault rifles to this trade. A 2003 study by the RAND Corporation found that weapons, some of which “are registered to the Venezuelan Armed Forces…routinely move from Venezuela into Colombia.” These findings are corroborated by a variety of sources, including Colombian government officials and defectors from the main rebel group, the FARC. In an interview that appeared in Jane’s Intelligence Review, a former member of the FARC’s ‘16th Front’ claimed that the rebels “…brought in rifles from Venezuela, such as used FALs in lots of 50...” from a supplier in Maracay, Venezuela’s main garrison town.

If the leaks in Venezuela’s arsenals aren’t plugged soon, many of the new rifles will undoubtedly follow the same path as the diverted FAL rifles. And if Chavez follows through on his commitment to arm a million or more Venezuelans, the trickle of weapons could become a torrent. Chavez is preparing for a “war of resistance” against a US invasion and is building a rifle factory to equip the huge reserve force, which will be tasked with “defend[ing] every street, every hill, every corner” from US invaders.

The Venezuelan government has revealed little about its plans for safeguarding the new rifles other than vague references to marking them with unique serial numbers. While marking weapons is important, serial numbers alone do not prevent the theft and diversion of small arms. Keeping weapons out of the wrong hands requires a variety of safeguards, including robust stockpile security, careful monitoring of local black markets, and a willingness on the part of other countries to hold governments accountable for failing to properly secure their arsenals.

The US government has repeatedly expressed concerns about the potential for diversion of the rifles and ammunition to terrorists and criminals. But anti-US sentiment is rampant in Venezuela, and America’s protestations have fallen on deaf ears. Nary a peep has come from the rest of the world; even those governments that champion the cause of small arms control have been conspicuously silent.

It is time for the international community to speak up. Pressure from foreign governments, and particularly Venezuela’s main trading partners, could help persuade Chavez to moderate his small arms build-up and to beef up controls on military stockpiles. To that end, these governments should take the follow steps: First, they should make it crystal clear to Chavez that he should not arm civilians. The threat posed by the distribution of military firearms to the civilian population is far greater – to Venezuelans and their neighbors – than the phantom US invasion force they ostensibly would be used to thwart. Second, these governments should ask the Venezuelan government to brief them on its plans for preventing the theft, loss or diversion of the rifles and ammunition. The plan should be thorough and detailed, and should include physical security and stockpile accounting practices that meet international standards. Finally, the Organization of American States and Venezuela’s neighbors should monitor the regional trade in illicit small arms and alert the international community if Venezuela’s rifles start appearing on the black market.

The region—and the world—deserve at least that."

Wonder how long till we see some cheap FALs here?
 
If Hugo doesn't shut his moutho he will find out how blind and dumb he will be after a bullet rips through that fat head of his.IMHO if he doesn't shut his piehole and keeps on makin threats,somebody is going to shut him up.
 
If I were president of a country floating on oil, and I had recently toppled a corrupt US-backed government, I'd be a little nervous too. I would be arming the crap out of my citizenry Swiss-style, with severe penalties for losing the weapons. Selling them to someone else should be punishable by a prison term.

As long as the arming of civilians (with automatic weapons, no less) is being done such that it includes all law-abiding citizens, I have no problem with it.
 
If Hugo Chavez was trying to turn Venezuela into a well-armed neutral country like Switzerland, I wouldn't be worried, but that doesn't seem like what he is doing.

Chavez has a strong hold on power and is nationalizing almost all of the countries' resources. He is importing large numbers of arms and has increased the size and training of his army. At the same time he is also shutting down any major voices of opposition. There is a massive upswelling of nationalism among his people and he has been making a name for himself throughout S. America while condemning the USA and countries that support us. I don't know what that looks like to you, but to me it seems like Chavez is running down the check-list for a war of territorial expansion. I don't think that it is likely that he will attack the US, but I could definitely see him invading one of his neighbors in the near future.....

And chances are many of the invaded people might welcome him.
 
I agree that the nationalizing of resources is probably a bad thing - however, given that the oil companies were the ones propping up the previous regime, and given that they're now funneling money out of the country as fast as they can, I'd say that Chavez is between a rock and a hard place as far as making sure the resources of his country benefit his citizens.
 
How is this guy a threat militarily to us? Just another crazy we could bomb to oblivion in 48 hours...give or take.

What a great excuse for certain politicians to scare us again. Who cares what he does with his AKs? It isn't our country, so its not our business. I doubt he plans an invasion of our soil, and if the weapons make their way to other countries....well its not like Columbia doesn't already have plenty of AKs floating around.
 
stevelyn said:
Hopefully those AKs will find their way up here as parts kits.
It's more likely they'll end here as "gang kits" in the hands of MS-13 and/or various drug cartels fighting it out along the Mexican border. Which will then no doubt be blamed on American gun laws and followed by a broader push for a new AWB. :scrutiny:
 
I'm not saying that Chavez is a threat to us, but he could be a dangerous threat to the other countries of S. America. Right now his actions are very similar to what Hitler did in Germany in the 1930s (no, not the mass-murder). Hitler built up and nationalized much of the German economy and military, all the while making speeches about how great Germans were and how terrible the rest of the world was. Hugo has nationalized the economy and is building up his armed forces while making lots of speeches about how great his people are and how bad the USA and it's allies are. Now I could be totally off base and Chavez simply wants a strong and proud country, but until I see proof this guy needs to be watched closely.

Also: I strongly doubt that Chavez is stupid enough to attack the US directly, but with our forces stretched as thin as they are right now I don't thing Congress would be quick to intervene in a South American war. Venezuela is currently the US's larges oil supplier, he could hurt us indirectly by closing down the pumps. If Chavez legalized the production of cocaine, he would probably get a lot of money, guns, and soldiers from the various cartels and they can hit inside the US.
 
Well if he wants to take over South America, so be it. Let him try. Countries have to fend for themselves. But none of it should involve us.
 
...It’s time to start asking some tough questions about the rifles and President Chavez’s plan for protecting them. That time was a couple years ago, not now. Anyhoo, it is safe to assume that those rifles are destined to Colombian FARC units and radical left wing groups.

...The Venezuelan government has revealed little about its plans for safeguarding the new rifles other than vague references to marking them with unique serial numbers.The plan probably resembles this: Oh, we didn't make/buy that AK-103 that was found in Colombia on a dead FARC guerrilla. The serial number is not in our records.

...The US government has repeatedly expressed concerns about the potential for diversion of the rifles and ammunition to terrorists and criminals. But anti-US sentiment is rampant in Venezuela, and America’s protestations have fallen on deaf ears. Nary a peep has come from the rest of the world; even those governments that champion the cause of small arms control have been conspicuously silent.Well duh, he sells oil. Nobody wants to get on his bad side. At any rate, doing something about it would require something nobody is yet willing to use: force.

...First, they should make it crystal clear to Chavez that he should not arm civilians.Well, he did shut down the TV station with the best soap operas in the country. Perhaps that is advice we don't need to give him?

Chavez is running Venezuela in pretty much the same way Mugabe is running Zimbabwe: right into the ground. The difference is he's going to take all his neighbors with him.
 
As long as the arming of civilians (with automatic weapons, no less) is being done such that it includes all law-abiding citizens, I have no problem with it.
Not likely. Chavez will only arm those dedicated to him and his vision, Comittee for Public Safety style.
 
To bring this back on track.

Hugo has a license to manufacture AK-103s. Does anyone know where the factories are, and what their capacity is? Does he have any ammo manufacturing, or is it all imported?
 
I am unconcerned about how many AKs Chavez has. They are of dubious value against precision guided munitions which is what the US would employ against him if he was a serious threat to us. He no doubt wants them to further enslave his own people, and probably to acquire additional territory to add to his little empire.
 
ilbob, could you please post a link to support your contention that the Venezuelans are somehow "enslaved"?
 
ilbob, could you please post a link to support your contention that the Venezuelans are somehow "enslaved"?

Can you post a link to support a contention to the contrary?
 
He no doubt wants them to further enslave his own people, and probably to acquire additional territory to add to his little empire.

The onus falls on the fellow making the claim, that would be you in this case ilbob, to prove that his claim is true. Jlbraun is not required to prove your claim false. All this, of course, assumes that something resembling an actual debate is supposed to be happening. If the game is just to make unfounded assertions and holler "You can't prove me wrong!" then feel free to disregard the above.
 
I'm actually interested in what Chavez is really doing, with information from primary sources. Most of the stuff I'm reading indicates that he's actually spending less than the previous government on military hardware, he's just shifted the budget to different things. What the MSM doesn't like is that he's arming mere civilians.

I do, however, agree that appearing in military garb, nationalizing industries, and saying "socialism or death" does kind of start to move you up the tinpot dictator ladder. :rolleyes:

If he's being reasonably egalitarian in how he's arming his populace ("all male citizens 18-60 shall recieve a rifle and training") then I have no problem with it, as it will make it harder for some other guy to take over and start genociding. Additionally, arming the citizenry is a defensive move, not an offensive one.
 
Hugo has a license to manufacture AK-103s. Does anyone know where the factories are, and what their capacity is? Does he have any ammo manufacturing, or is it all imported?

According to this link here:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2003070518_venezarms19.html?syndication=rss

Gen. Alberto Muller, a Chávez adviser, said the Kalashnikov factory would be able to produce 20,000 to 30,000 rifles a year. Construction is expected to begin within four to five years, he said, but Chávez may want to build it sooner.

So apparently it is all imported at this time. I bet that's a lowball estimate; probably they will be able to produce 2-3 times as much if they want to. They also will have a factory to produce 7.62 ammo as well, if they don't have it already. This link has a table that shows Venezuelan arms deals with Russia:

http://mdb.cast.ru/mdb/1-2007/item4/article1/

No numbers as to ammunition production capacity, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was also way more than the Venezuelan armed forces need. So far he has quite a stockpile of imported 7.62x39 though. With his shopping list it is likely that war is in the forecast for South America.
 
With his shopping list it is likely that war is in the forecast for South America.

Maybe. However, given that he's arming civilians, that's a defensive posture he's taking, not a "let's go a-conquering" offensive posture.
 
Most of the wars in the past decade have not been fought by organized militaries. They have been fought by civilians (unlawful combatants) who primarily use small arms. Those armies are organized, trained, supplied, and operate in much the same way Chavez proposes to arm Venezuelans against "American invasion". The amount of low-intensity conflict in South America, especially Colombia, is about to spike big time. Chavez wants the aircraft and naval assets to discourage the Colombians from upping the ante from a low-intensity proxy conflict to a direct, high intensity state to state conflict.

So Chavez running around arming civilian militias with AK-103 assault rifles is not a "defensive" posture at all. Many of those rifles and ammo will find their way into the hands of violent leftist groups in South America.
 
For perspective, we US citizens, on our own initiative, imported 4 MILLION rifles before the AWB went into effect. 100k guns is what we import in a regular year.

Sure, Hugo's lining the 'ol bunker, a classic move for tinpot dictators since time immemorial. The FAS is just wringing their hands based on the on principle of hand wringing.

We live in interesting times.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top