What exactly is a SHTF scenario?

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To be picky.....

I think it also needs to include some sort of group action / reaction, bigger event than just you.....

The example of the riots is good.
 
What is a SHTF scenario? It can't really be tacked down very easily, but the best broad definition would be any situation where you are required to get along or survive by your own devices for a abnormal or prolonged period of time. As mentioned above, an Ice Storm or Blizzard where you're snowed in. Yeah, big deal, right? A couple days of food, no big deal.... but what if the utilities go out? Do you have heat? Water? You can't live long without either. You may be able to collect snow for water, during the day. What if days w/o utilities turns into weeks? Some outlying areas may experience this. Just something to think about.
Katrina in LA really exemplifies what can happen domestically (CONUS). Of course, we saw how the local LEAs chose to treat locals that were armed...
So, anything from riots to economic collapse to prolonged unemployment to Natural disasters, floods, blizzards, hurricanes, up to Lucifer's Hammer Meteor Strikes and Surprise Ice Ages.

Oh, & global Zombie plagues, too. Must not forget the friggin' Zombies.

DoubleTapDrew said:
SHTF is when Russian paratroopers jump into a sleepy Colorado town, forcing a small group of high school students to hide out in the woods eventually fighting back and teaming up with a downed air force colonel.
Sorry, I re-watched Red Dawn recently.

Yeah, me too. I watch it at least once a month. Love that ol' movie, total classic.
 
OK, so which scenario is considered the worse SHTF situation:

Russian paratroopers landing in your backyard, with only Patrick Swayze and Lea Thompson on your side...

or

Being trapped at the Mall surrounded by Zombies?
 
A few years ago Hawaii experienced a major earthquake that caused some power outages and limited travelling. If more of the infrastructure was damaged we would have been in a world of hurt. That's when I really started working on stocking up on basic survival necessities like food, water, equipment, and *firearms*. I would hate to stay at a shelter if my own home was still intact. I rather bug in than retreat to a place that may be even worst off.
 
SHTF when the socialist start nationalizing everything from your homes and jobs to your pension, then tell you to turn in your guns. Just after they ruin the dollar of course.

jj
 
If the situation is a situation where you would need to use a gun, then I would say a total disappearance of society. Nobody other than you to provide food.
 
I think a good working definition would be anytime I'm faced with an emergency that I am required to handle W/out any outside resources. In Colorado that might be a blizzard or a home invasion or a woman having a heart attack in the pew in front of me at church (although we were less than 6 blocks from a fire station) It probably wouldn't include a hurricane. :D
 
After the Russians invading [although i think it'll be the Chinese invading first] their could be anything from as stated simple [okay not simple] home invasion, to oh god the sky is falling.

I personally define it as when something right goes completely awry and all of a sudden, you have very little time to keep from getting nailed to the proverbial wall.
 
Situation where there is no reasonable expectation of outside assistance, while simultaneously there is an increased risk of threat of physical violence and/or intimidation against your person and/or property. Correct?

Is there EVER a reasonable expectation for outside assistance?

As stated earlier, anybody trying to kick down my front door creates a SHTF situation. If I need the cops, chances are I needed the cops two-three minutes ago. I don't see response times being that good for a long, long time. ;)

I think of it as "any situation which may call for self-defense" with some sort of established "base" as necessary, although this may be simply because "SHTF" means "rifle" to me and I haven't figured out how to carry a proper rifle concealed. :)
 
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Here in my neck of the woods it's a cat 4 or 5 hurricane.
Loss of all utilities, complete breakdown of law enforcement, shortage of food, little if no water.

In other words "you're on your own bunky".

You know those signs you see on the TV after a hurricane that says "you loot we shoot"?
Those are not a joke.

AFS
 
I'm surprised that so many here don't really have a grasp of these two common terms.
SHTF is an intense but more or less,limited disruption in the status quo. i.e. Katrina, earthquake,etc.
TEOTWAWKI is exactly that ,"the end of the world as we know it", i.e. Red Dawn, Jericho, Omega Man,Mad Max, January 20, etc.:D
 
A SHTF scenario to me is anytime that a gun would come in handy...


I have to disagree with this defination. There are plenty of times when you are in serious trouble and a firearm isn't going to be the primary tool that will get you through it.


As I see it the GENERAL term SHTF refers to anytime that your life is threatened and/or conditions exist where the basic needs of human existence are unobtainable through normal channels.

This, however, does not include minor inconvienences such as getting a flat on the interstate. It may, however, include losing your job-- if you include financial disasters in the mix.


I sort of have classed SHTF into categories of severity. My categorization is not based upon the level of "danger," but rather the level of resources and preparedness would be required to deal with said SHTF:

SHTF Cat. 1: Something goes bump in the night, and it isn't the dog.
SHTF Cat. 2: A "stranded" situation.
SHTF Cat. 3: A Protracted and/or regional disruption of society (i.e. Katrina)
SHTF Cat. 4: A national/global societal meltdown. (TEOTWAWKI)


Misc. SHTF: A Financial SHTF. I break this out of the rest because a) it is often not life-threatening, but b) it CAN be a major disruption to your ability to meet basic needs, and c) it DOES require substantial planning.


-- John
 
I used to think I had it all figured out. There were 3 classifiers to deal with

Local or Widespread? If local (ice storm, tornado, hurricane, quake), then one might reasonably expect help from other parts of the country. We do that pretty well as a nation, the response to Katrina nothwithstanding. If it's very widespread (think: asteroid strike, war, etc.) then attitudes will change.

Short term or long term? If "everyone knows" the problem is going to be limited in duration, then there's a much more cooperative attitude among those at ground zero. During an unprecendented winter storm in Alabama, people were very quick to share resources like firewood, food, and other help. The anticipation was that he local utilities would be back on in a week or so, and that the grocery stores would be there when the roads were passable.

Where is the problem occuring? Is it a major metro area, where there is little or no natural societal cohesion, or is it in the proverbial "Amish countly", where voluntary cooperative effort is the norm?

All this analysis went right down the pooper when I saw the response of NYC to the 09/11 attacks. Crime fell to near zero. Compare that to Katrina, where it all went rodeo in the areas most affected. In both scenes, there were highly localized, short term disruptions in major metro areas. In NYC, people reacted well, on the whole. In the Big Easy, it was a time of Great Suckage.

Needless to say, I no longer thing I understand anything about this.
 
I think we are at the beginning stages of an economic SHTF. I would prepare for a spike in crime, possible job loss or pay cuts, while the price of everything goes up and up. Couple this with the government robbing more and more money(many places are increasing taxes, and taxing more things right now "due to budget problems"), and clamping down on more and more trivial things "for our own good and safety" of course.
 
1) Complete and utter breakdown of society - lord of the flies style savagery, mad max style survivalist skills required.

or

2) Government out of control declares something more strict and permanent than martial law and it becomes time to "feed the tree of liberty".

+1 :cool:
 
To me SHTF could range from Hurricane Katrina to Water World, with a happy medium of The Postman.

I know that's over-simplifying, but I think that puts my point into terms that most people can easily understand.
 
SHTF is the time when government has failed and you are on your own. The list of times that they fail grows every day to the point where their efforts won't mean much.

What creates a SHTF scenario is expecting someone else to take care of you. Katrina is a great example - you could choose to hole up in the stadium and wait for - what? Or, be armed and prepared with food and water to last out the surge. Those who simply drove north did a least exercise initiative.

Denial and a complete lack of preparation creates SHTF scenarios - and all the folks who've lived through serious ice storms, hurricanes, and earthquakes with preparedness didn't suffer much at all. And the government does very little in those situations - the power company is the biggest enabler. They bring in workcrews within 24 hours and fix it.

In a SHTF scenario, you either take care of it yourself, or the government will at least dispose of your remains. If you live outside the city limits, you know this. It's the urban residents who don't get it.
 
I think you've pretty much nailed it down...

At least for me.

Natural disasters stateside are in the minds of many. I don't live in hurricane or tornado belt, but volcano and earth quake are big possibilities. Still, in most natural disasters, most people you encounter are in the same boat so to speak. We need sustinance and shelter. I hope to have both. I may take in my neighbor in need, but I don't plan on just giving away what I've stocked up for a situation. Let the indigents loot the local appliance store for that big screen TV. I couldn't give a rip. (It's not my store) But land on my property to take my food and drink, You'll have a fight on your hands. SHTF is just that, Lawlessness, carelessness, disregard for human life, (mine) is when the gloves come off.

My 14 and 16 year old boys and I were watching the Patriot the other day. The part when the son is taken prisoner and dad and the boys ambush the Brits on the road to rescue him... I think right then, that was a SHTF situation.

Do I worry about a Billion Chinamen coming down drom B.C.? Naw... We joke about it. But naw. (Those of you in Arizona, New Mexico and Texas, might think otherwise of the thugs south of the border) Am I concerned that there could be a drug/turf war with some local gangs? I don't ignore the possibilities. Mix in any sort of major disaster and the gang threat becomes real. No, in my smallish community I don't envision riots of Detroit and L.A. memories.

But when there are people determined to take advantage of a situation, and do wrong to others, S has HTF.

We should be a bit prepared to handle that.

-Steve
 
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