What exactly is a SHTF scenario?

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Government out of control declares something more strict and permanent than martial law and it becomes time to "feed the tree of liberty".

How exactly do you get more strict than martial law?

One thing I have also learned from history is that the majority of tyrannical regimes only enacted "temporary" measures. A very small minority ever called anything they did or any new powers "permanent".

To keep with a more well known example for the sake of time, Hitler only was given 4 years of "temporary" powers due to an "emergency" crisis.
The "emergency crisis" was an "act of terrorism"
in the burning of the Reichstag, thier parliament building, similar to our Congress. Supposedly set by communists to start a communist revolution.

So for comparison (as we do not have a parliamentary system): essentialy the Capitol building was attacked in an act of terrorism, and the president or powerful individual in government asked for Patriot Act like powers to deal with the crisis.Those powers were granted, and with those powers they slowly insured they gained increasing levels of power while limiting opposition.
The population was drummed up into patriotic support to resist "terrorists".
The Third Reich was born.
Anyone who questioned what was happening was considered unpatriotic, or a "terrorist sympathizer".
Similar to the Dixie Chicks (not a fan) in early 2003 when they questioned Bush going to war with Iraq.
Washington Times 2003:
"They're still all riled up: A well-heeled audience booed the Dixie Chicks plenty during the country music's biggest night of the year Wednesday proof that patriotism continues to run deep through America."
And lines like: "It's yet another scene from an ongoing national morality play with a looming moral: Even celebrities can't mess with respect for country and national unity."

The entire group posed nude on the April 28 cover of Entertainment Weekly magazine, their limbs printed with mottos such as "Saddam's angels," "traitors" and "proud Americans."



So you see, the road to tyranny is not something the average person would recognize even if it was happening. They can be drummed up into support for whatever is going on, and anyone that speaks out can be blackslisted. Considered unpatriotic traitors.
Tyranny usualy comes with applause and many "temporary" measures to deal with a current crisis as history shows.
Fortunately the fervor died down, most of the Patriot Act was repealed, and Bush or someone else didn't take things too much further to "protect us in the War on Terror".
In many other situations in history things were not so fortunate.


The masses can be made to follow or allow anything. They just need to be scared, hungry, or desperate.

Top Nazi, Hermann Goering:
"Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship. ...voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is to tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."
 
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/applause
Well put, zoogster.
The burning of the Reichstag turned out to be a fraud carried out by people within the Nazi movement to claim that they were under attack by communists, and people needed to give up their freedoms for security.
 
So it's still a bit of an nebulous concept. Seems to be one of those things were "i'll know it when I see it".
I mean, I have my abstract idea of what SHTF looks like - but it seems like people's definitions vary from "bump in the night" to all out overthrow of government to natural disasters, and everything in between.


Part of the reason why i'm kinda trying to get to the bottom of this, is again - you see all these "best SHTF rifle" threads and such. It seems to be kind of hard to nail down the best tool for the job, when even describing what the job is/will be seems to be a little bit of an exercise in it's own right..
 
A SHTF scenario that appears to be becoming more common in the Atlanta area is the SWAT team bursting through your door and shooting at you.
 
What is it exactly to you, and what is the likelihood of this actually being a reality?
Anything that is grounds for automatic thread lock in the strategies and tactics forum. It seems to happen quite frequently. :cool:

Sometimes it refers to things like hurricanes, and sometimes it refers to zombie invasions, or anything in between. It usually depends on who started the thread, but I guess that's not MY personal definition.
 
Personal perspective has 100% to do with what's considered SHTF. It sounds
like for some people here running out of chocolate would be SHTF. For some
of us seeing a pile of dead mangled bodies outside the ER would at least be
kind of close. At that point we might ask "How close is the fat man to farting
near the fan?"
 
I'd start a new thread about what I'm about to ask, but it's not gun related. Zoogster explained the Reichstag fire in a way that brought clarity to a modern comparison.

What are some situations similar to Reichstag that preceded Reichstag? As we know, history repeats itself. So, I'm wondering if anybody can give me some examples of precedents to Reichstag.
 
Here in SLC, the most likely SHTF would be a massive earthquake. The Wasatch fault has been poised to break for quite some time now, and when it does, the western bedrock/silt plate will be forced under the eastern granite plate and will send rolling seismic shock waves of biblical proportions throughout the soft ancient lake bed of the Salt Lake Valley floor.

Seismologists have said that we have been due for a big one (7.0 or bigger) for many decades now. I assume that it is only a matter of time.

That is why I have a SHTF gun/ammo stash. It could take weeks/months to get the city back in order after such an event. However, I also have many other SHTF stashes... like food/water/medical/shelter procurement. Guns are only one little piece of surviving a SHTF scenario.

SHTF is actually when your wife finds out you bought a gun and didn't tell her.
No level of preparation can save you from that.
 
I'll take zombies thanks

OK, so which scenario is considered the worse SHTF situation:

Russian paratroopers landing in your backyard, with only Patrick Swayze and Lea Thompson on your side...

or

Being trapped at the Mall surrounded by Zombies?

Anything with Patrick Swayze would be the worst-- his hair would be visible to passing aircraft, thus attracting extra attention and/or gunfire...
 
I have recently asked this very question and I initiated a thread asking what rifle was good for such a situation - http://www.thehighroad.org/showthread.php?p=5158217#post5158217

As I mentioned in the thread, a friend made me realize that the "Rule of Law" has broken down on more than one occasion in recent history. California has, to some degree, crippled its residents with very unique laws, but the Govt. was unable to come to their aid during the LA Riots. That was a SHTF moment for sure.

New Orleans imposed a temporary law prohibiting gun possession during the Katrina aftermath. They collected guns from citizens that were trying to protect their homes and themselves. Meanwhile, the city is in shambles as many (not all) of the officers abandoned their posts and left the residents to fend for themselves in the midst of a temporary gun ban. That was a SHTF moment. - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-taU9d26wT4

I live in the Denver Metro area and in December 2006 we had one of the worst blizzards in recorded history. We were confined to our homes for about four days and the city shut down (that speaks to how much snow it was because Denver does not stress over snow). During that week, there was a group of teens in our neighborhood who took advantage of the situation by robbing some of the condos in my community while the residents were home!!! Imagine that; drudging through 4 feet of snow to violate someone’s home. It was nowhere near as extreme as L.A. or N.O. but it was a SHTF moment.

Frankly, anarchy is not likely in the United States, but the occasional societal breakdown has reared its head. You won’t catch me moving to the mountains to drink well water and “live free off the land” while I store up a basement full of potted meat.:D But I do believe in SHTF moments.
 
JakeMccoy

Tell the deadbeats in your family to read the parable of the Ant and the Grasshopper.

Sadly a true SHTF scenario means leaving the ones that would burden your family left behind to fend for themselves.

I just started planning for a long-term SHTF scenario where there would be a complete breakdown of law and order. For a short-term SHTF I would almost daresay one could wing it. Food - check. Ammo-check. Water, fuel, toilet paper -check, check, check. Other stuff too, but you get my drift. A situation where basic services may be lacking but law and order is still around and folks aren't doing stupid things. The situation should get back to normal within days or weeks at the most.

But planning for a situation where there may not be a natural disaster or nuclear war, but maybe a complete breakdown of the system with mobs roaming the streets, takes some serious planning. And is turning out to be much harder than I thought it would be.

However, the first things are in place: 4x4 vehicles, guns, ammo, land. I've already started talking to like-minded, close friends about expanding our shooting circle and bringing wives into it to learn to handle and shoot what is in our repertoire. Fortunately, several have been with us since the beginning. Others pooh-poohed the gun angle as a "guy thing" but have since relented and will join in.

I hope it never comes to pass. But I'd rather be ready than begging.
 
Tyranny usualy comes with applause and many "temporary" measures to deal with a current crisis as history shows.
Fortunately the fervor died down, most of the Patriot Act was repealed, and Bush or someone else didn't take things too much further to "protect us in the War on Terror".

And which onerous parts of the Patriot Act were actually repealed?
 
I live in a part of the country where winter storms are quite common, and being stuck or stranded for days isn't a rare thing. I've always felt and lived my life by the rule of "being willing to help anyone who is willing to help themselves" (but not to my property without permission to do so).

I was having a discussion at work many years ago, after a particularly bad storm, and the conversation turned to another nasty storm from the late 80's. That storm left everyone who lived where we did without power, in sub-freezing/near zero temps, and stuck on top of a hill with only two roads down in over 2 feet of snow, for almost a week. One of my coworkers commented on the fact that I had a gen-set, stocked up firewood, and was known to 'donate' large sums each payday at local coop stores, farmers markets, and Sam's club. He said that he could always just come to my house if the SHTF. I smiled, and said something very close to: "Oh really? What makes you think that? You guys laugh and make fun of me for my preparedness, where's yours? If you come to my house begging and wanting a handout after doing NOTHING to help yourself, I'll meet you the door with something you WON'T like, and I will use it." They seemed genuinely shocked, but also fairly certain I meant what I said. Funny thing, my 'freindship' with them cooled fairly quickly after that, and I never lost a wink of sleep over it.

SHTF scene's don't neccesarilly have to be man made to bring out the worst in people, even your "friends"!!!!!! Consider the L.A. riots, both of them, blackouts on the east coast, earthquakes, hurricanes (Katrina being a PRIME example), and you get the idea. Being far removed from the scene helps, but it doesn't totally insulate you. Think "trickle down economics".
 
It seems the concensus is that a SHTF is more or less temporary, while TEOTWAWKI is a situation where things permanently change for the worse. I agree with this, although I do think that there could be a SHTF with permanent aftermath. In Argentina, they still talk about "pre crash" and "post crash" as two different time frames. They had a major economic SHTF in 2001. When it happened, it was fast, and people flipped out. A description of it, as well as some advice from a pretty smart guy who lived through it can be found here : http://members.cox.net/theprof/UrbanSurvival/Thoughts On Urban Survival.htm Things haven't been the same since, although some semblance of order has returned.
 
For us, SHTF is when you dial 911 and they wish you luck.

I have to say Katrina was a weird event in that I would not expect something like that to occur in the continental US (aftermath). 9/11 seemed orderly on TV (those NY'ers seemed to work together). LA riots was a mess but we did see people coming together to protect their properties (same for Katrina).

What I fear is a biological threat whether man made or natural like a SARs/ebola outbreak. People will be less likely to help each other because you don't know if those helping or asking for help are infected. You're going to be quarantined and on your own until the men in space suits show up, if they show up, and if they will help or merely mark your door as infected.
 
Honestly, criminal element aside, I don't know what the hell a SHTF scenario would entail. I just found out the acronym TEOTWAKI, not in the military dictionary, call me naive, from another poster on this thread. My guess would be, here in rural MS, it means another Katrina situation. Neighbors would get their butts out there to help other neighbors, we would all pull together to do our best, collectively. It may not be the answer to the diehards ( someone or something moves within MY gunscope's range, it dies), but to those individuals with the Rambo mentality, didn't John Rambo not try to be peaceable until pushed? Criminals aside, aren't the people you decide to draw down on American citizens? Just helpless civilians who could use medical attention or something to eat? As gun owners, wouldn't this situation make us more powerful than everybody else around us, until we run out of ammunition? Let's face it, none of the members here, no matter how prepared, is going to run to the Federal or Remington manufacturing plant and stake a claim. You'd probably get your head blown off by the workers who had the same idea as you. If you try to run to a food processing facility, any of them, same scenario. If you're smart, you'll learn how to barter and do it fast. If not, good luck with your high-powered firearms, they'll serve you well for the short-term. After that, what are you going to do?

Just observing,

C Jackson:what:
 
Zimbabwe just might qualify

In this country the people have the guns. This gives them the ultimate power. That isn't the case in some places:

Robert Mugabe gave warning yesterday that he would not cede power if he loses next week’s election to the Opposition in his most explicit statement yet of his refusal to respect the result.

State-controlled media reported his comments to supporters at an election rally, the latest in a series of increasingly menacing threats as Zimbabwe counts down to the June 27 presidential run-off poll. Mr Mugabe’s military-backed regime has been carrying out a campaign of violence aimed at wiping out the opposition vote.

“We fought for this country, and a lot of blood was shed,” Mr Mugabe told his supporters. “We are not going to give up our country because of a mere X. How can a ballpoint fight with a gun?”

Good question. Ask that the next time someone tells you that we don't need the Second Amendment because we have the First Amendment.
 
The vast majority of "which gun for" discussions entirely miss the point of survival in bad times. Nearly any common gun will suffice. Shotgun, rifle, handgun...any of these will work. A gun is just one of the tools and_I know this is heresy_it isn't even the most important tool.
Knowledge is the most important. Knowledge of what is most likely to occur where you live, knowledge of what to do if it happens.
Plans are more important than guns. A man with a plan but no gun is usually better off than a man with a gun but no plan.
Supplies of food and potable water are needed overwhelmingly more often than guns. People end up evacuating to government shelters because they have no food or water much more often than because they were unarmed.
I could go on at length about this. Suffice it to say that the average non-gun owning backpacking enthusiast is better prepared to survive TSHTF than the typical boob who is fixated on guns.
Only after we get past the masturbatory fantasies of surviving being all about who you have to shoot, can we have a discussion of survivalism that is worth reading.
 
When Bruce Willis doesn't stop the asteroid hit!

Katrina, riots, blizzards, quakes, nuclear war, economic disaster - all can lead to societal collapse.

The threads go awry when somebody starts to go ninja commando and spouts their plan to barricade their neighborhood from the UN or think the rioters are going to drive all the way to their small town in Montana.
 
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