Capacity ? Article

I concur with everything he says here. I switched from a single-stack .45 1911, to a double-stack .45 1911, to a double-stack 9mm 1911. (18+1.) I also believe that modern bullets have closed the gap in effectiveness of service cartridges, and I'm not losing anything in switching to 9mm.

Any good examples of concealed carrier John Q. Citizen, taking his wife out to dinner at Applebee's by way of a couple stops at the convenience store and Home Depot, actually needing a 15 round magazine or tactical reload in their defensive encounter? How about the negative, where caliber choice, lack of capacity or high-speed reload perpetuated defensive failure? There must be at least some valid examples if the reality justifies the perception? Bueller?

As a counterpoint the Active Self Protection guy has watched thousands of civilian shootings and he says he’s never seen one where the good guy needed a reload.

Ayoob is approaching this from the viewpoint of a cop who has to stick around until the bad guy is in custody. The ammunition needs of a civilian and a police officer are not the same, and a concealed carrier doesn’t enjoy immunity for dumping 18 rounds into a kindergarten teacher and half of her class passing by on a bus. As a concealed carrier your job is to break contact and get away.

Another area where some actual examples would be useful is where a group of multiple attackers have continued to accost John Q. Citizen AFTER John Q. Citizen has engaged one or more in defensive fire, versus just scattering like roaches.

Buckeye63 said:

I understand what you are saying…
But .. take heed to what Mr Ayoob is saying
Bad guys can run in packs ..
I live in a small town .. last week .. a two cars were found crashed .. a body in one of them . shot dead .. Still unsure what happened.. but I heard from a first responder .. seemed like car bumped.. wrecked and driver was shot .. and robbed .. the other car was stolen..
15 years ago .. big news .. now . Just front page news for a day ..
A friend of my mine .. his wife was followed through a Walmart parking lot by three men .. one right behind two flanking .. they didn’t know hubby was in the truck watching and approaching them with his Glock 45 ( 9mm) drawn .. they scattered .. a what if situation…
Different times .. desperate people do desperate things … no rhyme nor reason…
I admit.. sometimes I carry a snubbie… but less now than ever …
You just never know …

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Sounds like good examples of why "Carry Everywhere, Everyday" needs to be the mantra. I agree you never know when things will go pear-shaped, but not sure it justifies a certain elevated baseline of carry suitability. I wouldn't have lost any sleep if I would have been the hubby armed with a 3" Model 10 RB instead a G45.

Don't get me wrong, I generally like Ayoob. I have been reading his stuff for over 30 years, including some early articles in a couple 70's vintage Law Enforcement Handgun Digests. His Combat Handgunnery is a staple of the throne room reading rack. However, I think his statements here a bit hyperbolic for John Q. Citizen. Your mileage may vary.

.455_Hunter said:

Any good examples of concealed carrier John Q. Citizen, taking his wife out to dinner at Applebee's by way of a couple stops at the convenience store and Home Depot, actually needing a 15 round magazine or tactical reload in their defensive encounter?

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With respect, I reject that question as irrelevant. Even if it has never happened, it's completely irrelevant because A) it could happen and B) the issue is much more complex than your question or the answer it presupposes might suggest.

What's more, your question is kind of...deceptive in and of itself. You lament that there is a dearth of evidence to support the need for a high capacity magazine and, in the very same sentence, you wonder why there are no stories of self defense tactical reloads in self defense shootings. Perhaps there are very few self defense stories that involve tactical reloads because more and more self defenders have high capacity magazines and didn't need to reload.

And also, I do know of a police story that involved tactical reloads. In this particular incident, an officer, Timothy Gramins, discharged 33 rounds from his 13 round Glock 21. He hit the perp 14 times including 6 hits that were all deemed "lethal". Despite all this, the guy still managed to keep shooting at him. The gun fight lasted 56 seconds and in that time, the perp managed to fire off 21 rounds before Gramins managed to make a head shot.

This was one man that took 33 rounds of .45 ACP to stop. So what if you have 3 or 4 dudes coming at you? The one time I had to pull a gun, I had a 5 round j frame and there were 3 of them and, thankfully, they withdrew without incident but I'm on the same wavelength as Officer Gramins after that. I carry a high cap 9mm because I was woefully ill equipped for an actual gun fight with that j frame, especially if it involved multiple attackers.

And, as my final point, I'll just add that the criminals aren't going to stop utilizing high capacity magazines because the politicians made them illegal so all you accomplish is making yourself weaker and them stronger. These guys already have the rest of us outgunned. Have you not seen the full auto "switches" that are so popular amongst the gangsters these days? They get freaking fully automatic machine pistols and we're relegated to 10 rounds or less? That doesn't seem like anything I want to see.

Better to have and not need, than to need and not have.

What if a large group of retired Navy SEALs gone bad who are carrying AK47's, wearing body armor, and on cocaine walk up to your table at Olive Garden and try to steal your breadsticks? These days, it is likely to happen anytime, anywhere, to anyone... even though it has never happened before. There are a lot of what if's in Ayoob's video (as usual). I now remember why I don't pay any attention to him.

One of the three components of risk is threat, defined here as the likelihood that the event will happen. The likelihood I will need my gun? Low. The likelihood I will have to use it? Much lower. The likelihood I will need 18 rounds and (3) spare 17 round magazines as a civilian? Almost non-existent.

If it is really that dangerous out there then you are better off to barricade in your house and have Amazon deliver the necessities. Of course, if the Amazon driver has 12 guys hiding in his van who are all former special forces, carrying AK47's, wearing body armor, and on cocaine planning a home invasion, you will need those 3 spare magazines. It could happen.

As an LEO I carried plenty of ammo. My job was to engage bad guys and take them into custody. Now I am a civilian and my mission is simply to force a break in contact and get away. Anyone who wants to carry lots of extra ammo is welcome to do so. I am quite content with the 9-15 rounds in my usual carry guns.

I also believe that modern bullets have closed the gap in effectiveness of service cartridges, and I'm not losing anything in switching to 9mm.

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The gap between 9mm and larger caliber rounds has always been small, or nonexistent. The difference today is that perceptions have changed, and people are more likely to accept the facts that were always there.

Modern ammo has made ALL cartridges more effective. Old school FMJ ammo gets the job done with one shot about 2/3 of the time, regardless of the cartridge. Modern HP loads will be in the upper 80's to mid 90's percentage, regardless of the cartridge.

To me, the biggest plus for non-LE to going to 9mm is the ability to carry a smaller gun, and still have 10-12 rounds available. For LE or those who can, and choose to open carry, a full-size pistol with 17-18 rounds makes sense.

Buckeye63 said:

Mr Ayoob is saying
Bad guys can run in packs ..

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As they have since well before the advent of firearms. It’s definitely not something new.

Years ago YT had a guy IIRC he was a sheriff, that did a demo on the differences between "high capacity" and "normal" mags. Anyone know how long it takes to change a mag? It ain't that long and if you practice it 3 times that time goes way down.

He also did revolvers with a speed loader, and again not that long.

Now I realize a second is a long time, I raced cars in another life, and a second is a real long time. But it really has little bearing on what a given gun can do.

jmr40 said:

The difference today is that perceptions have changed,

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yeah people forget the the same advances in bullets apply throughout a product line from 22lr- whatever

This is really very simple, but some people just seem to want to insist on making it soooo complicated.

The number of rounds you need to solve the problem, is exactly the number of rounds it takes to solve the problem.

You either have that, or you dont. You make the choice, and deal with what you get.

Personally, Id rather have 17 and only need 1, than to only have 5 and need 6.

And if you arent regularly keeping up on any kind of realistic shooting and handling skills, lack of capacity isnt your main problem, although, it will likely accelerate things in respect to your problems.


And on another note, Ayoob has to be making enough money by now to be able to get some decent artificial hair.

You can never have too much ammo, unless you're drowning or on fire.

If we are going to say; "The odds of needing a reload are so small it's not even worth it." then we could also say; "The odds of needing a gun at all are so small it's not even worth it."

It's easy to come up with examples where having a gun was beneficial. When asked about examples of where a civilian needed a reload, all you hear is hypotheticals and discussion about how violent crime is so much more worse today than it was back in the good old days.

The rate of violent crimes being committed fell by 49% from 1993 to 2019. Violent crime rates are lower than they were for most of the 1970's and 1980's. The biggest difference from now and then is that there is constant streaming of crazy stuff on the 24/7 news cycle that you didn't hear about 50 years ago.

Remington1911 said:

Years ago YT had a guy IIRC he was a sheriff, that did a demo on the differences between "high capacity" and "normal" mags. Anyone know how long it takes to change a mag? It ain't that long and if you practice it 3 times that time goes way down.

He also did revolvers with a speed loader, and again not that long.

Now I realize a second is a long time, I raced cars in another life, and a second is a real long time. But it really has little bearing on what a given gun can do.

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My wife would not be able to quickly and effectively execute a magazine reload under the best of circumstances let alone in a combat situation but she could definitely pull a Glock out of a holster and point it at a bad guy and pull the trigger until the bad guy stopped. She understands that much just fine. Could she train more? Should she train more? Yes and yes? Is she going to train more? No. Guns just aren't her thing. Purses and nail polish are her thing. Guns are my thing. So, if it became necessary, I just want her to be able to grab that Glock and use it and never have to worry about the magazine. And I think my wife is like a lot of wives in this regard.

I have interviewed lots of officers, deputies and civilians who fired guns in encounters with bad guys.

I have never once heard anyone telling me or my fellow investigators that they wished they had less ammo in their gun. I have heard a few people say they should have had more over the years, because they missed with some of their shots.

The caliber-capacity debate is as old as the second revolver Sam Colt sold to a customer. Like Arab-Israeli hostilities, it will probably never be put to bed for good.

You are all 100 % correct that the chances of being forced to draw a gun in self defense is very, very slim…and being involved in a shooting much slimmer still. You are also correct in saying actually having a gun when you need it is better than leaving it at home because it is uncomfortable, unnecessary, whatever. CCW is a balancing act, and today we have more choices than ever to find exactly what we want. But (God forbid) should it happen, is that really the time you want to start questioning your choice of CCW firearm, be it caliber, capacity or your level of competence with it?

Just food for thought, may we all never have to find out.

Stay safe.

mljdeckard said:

If we are going to say; "The odds of needing a reload are so small it's not even worth it." then we could also say; "The odds of needing a gun at all are so small it's not even worth it."

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Actually that is incorrect. There are innumerable examples of where carrying a firearm has been vital to a positive outcome in a citizen defensive encounter. On any given day, the probability is low, but absolutely non-zero. Bottom line- carry a defensive weapon.

However, the examples of a non-risk enhanced citizen needing a mid-event tactical reload, or overtly elevated number of rounds fired, are pretty much non-existent. Attempting to meet the above criteria as part of a baseline EDC regimen is pretty fanciful.

Do I carry a reload? Yes- I do. After an event has ended or paused, I want to be able to quickly return to armed status in case something kicks off again before the cavalry arrives. It's far more administrative than tactical in nature. Also, reload is available in case of malfunction, like a spontaneous mag baseplate failure.

Do you need a F350 Crew Cab for a basic Walmart run? Nope- A standard passenger vehicle will suffice to carry six bags of groceries and dogfood.

Is it wrong to use a F350 Crew Cab for a basic Walmart run? Nope- Do what you want.

Is it wrong to indicate you are not adequately prepared if you don't use a F350 Crew Cab for all basic Walmart runs? Yes- A statement not backed up by facts.

Should everybody drive a F350 Crew Cab in all situations because you might need it capabilities someday? Unrealistic.

Can you own a F350 Crew Can, NOT use it for basic Walmart runs, but use it for situations that better match it's capabilities? Absolutely.

Should it be illegal to use a F350 Crew Cab for a basic Walmart run? Absolutely not.

Should it be illegal for anybody to own a F350 Crew Cab because certain individuals have driven them in nasty multi-fatality drunk driving incidents or "rolled coal" on the local climate protesters? Absolutely not.

Where do I draw the line?
For me in areas where I find myself, the odds of needing a reload because of a situation involving multiple BGs is miniscule. I simply don't go to those areas. The odds of needed a firearm in general, are higher.

mljdeckard said:

If we are going to say; "The odds of needing a reload are so small it's not even worth it." then we could also say; "The odds of needing a gun at all are so small it's not even worth it."

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...especially as this is the case:

Elkins45 said:

As a concealed carrier your job is to break contact and get away.

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However, the odds of this happening is more legitamately worth consideration of carrying a reload.

.455_Hunter said:

in case of malfunction, like a mag baseplate failure.

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