I figure it's not hoarders we should be blaming. When I was in the military, we used it as training ammo in boot camp. We have heard that the Government is buying up all the centerfire ammo....why wouldn't they be buying .22, as well?
It very much is hoarders.
The Army has it's own centerfire ammo made at the Lake City plant, and they are reportedly so advanced after ten years of production they are cancelling the night shift, taking voluntary early retirements, etc. There's no longer a surge, we've been pulling out of SW Asia for over two years. It's more than a downsizing.
During that time, with flush budgets and a war ongoing, the Services don't piddle around with shooting .22 and all the hassle. They shoot issue ammunition, especially combat arms troops, and any unit going overseas. In my case, we shot and familiarized on every weapon we owned - M9, M16a2, M249, M60, Mk 17, M2, etc. MP's get a lot of firepower - more than the average infantry squad. We did all that back in 2002, and at the time, they already knew they were sending us to GTMO where we would rack our guns for 6 months and not even touch them.
As for Homeland or others buying up all the ammo, it's a convenient excuse, but untrue. It was based on the normal open ended contract and looked huge, break it down to what the average agent would get per service (it was a bulk order for DOD, too, ) it barely covered target practice twice a year. It was mostly for concealed carry pistol ammo.
Nope, what we have is hoarders. Right now there's plenty of ammo, but the guys lining up at WalMart to snag three boxes aren't the big players anyway. That is about the worst place to get ammo in any quantity - it's at the end of a long chain of distribution that doesn't sell much, it just gets a few boxes out at the neighborhood level. Locally, a lot of that ammo is getting snapped up and used as collateral for other trades by the flippers - gun guys who make deals daily as a matter of their income. They are supplying the guys who throw up their hands at having to line up a 7AM at Walmart.
The heavy users went to reloading years ago after the last scare, and that is where they saw shortages. They hoard primers, sales on them went up exponentially when they thought a shortage was coming. Last February, you couldn't buy a Lee turret press kit, much less any, all the new guys wanting to reload had the wait time out past 6 weeks or more, just like trying to buy a new AR.
It's definitely hoarders - what we experienced was a larger than normal number of folks getting into shooting, and the Just In Time supply system the Internal Revenue is punitively enforcing means we can't stockpile goods in the retail system anymore. Take a look at the natural disasters we've had - there wasn't even enough sheetrock in Florida to fix up houses after the last major hurricane, they imported Chinese sheetrock by the boatloads, and it was defective. All because Congress taxes inventory and nobody keeps any in stock now.
Goes to Walmart - the cases of ammo usually get broken down at a distribution center, and they ship boxes of each caliber to the stores - not pallets. No place to put it anyway, and the bean counters don't like excess inventory because it doesn't get flipped in stores. If you have two years supply, you lose money on it sitting in the back warehouse. Better to ship a quarter of it and use the money for something else this season to make more profit. Money sitting in the warehouse can't make money on the sales floor this quarter.
That's what is really going on with ammo now - there's no retail bulk purchases, people are buying ten times what they did because they are in a panic. Lot's of things are getting back on the shelf as they finally realize it was just exactly that.
And reloading supplies are still selling briskly. You can't reload .22, therefore it's still in demand and it's not going to get better.