Implications of Panic Buying

Helps the gun sellers, thats for sure.

I dunno, to me, it helped solidify a point I was making to my coworkers when the buying frenzy started. It's too late to do anything about keeping guns out of peoples hands.
Those who want them, already got them, and those who dont, are now trampling over each other to get one.
And now, with gun and ammo sales through the roof, can you imagine how much money would be lost if gun and ammo manufacturers would be restricted on sales especially since they were already enjoying steady sales before this craziness started?

I think if anything, it shows that a gun ban is really pointless unless you take EVERYBODY's guns away. And no government or politician wants to be part of that.

I disagree with the predictions of buyers remorse and used AR's flocking for sale in a few months.

Gun sales are a measure of citizens trust in government and confidence in the economy. If the Republicans cave in on taxes a depression in the next two years is all but unavoidable. Tangable items such as guns will be necessary in the resulting social upheaval.

Another observation last night. Was at a local pawn shop, browsing the gun cases and in walk some dude with a Yugo SKS. He told the pawn dude he wanted $600 for it and went on to say they were selling for $800 on Gun Broker.

He did not get the his 6 bills and walked out. But really, $600 for a Yugo SKS?

I think a lot of them are first time buyers.

I know I would be, but for the prices and lack of hardware.

Back in Oct., I decided I needed to get an AR-15 type rifle, (actually I was looking more for an AR-10). I dilly dallied around, Obama got re-elected and prices went up for a while, and put off the buy, I then had some unexpected expenses and decided that between Christmas and New Years I would buy and Ar-10 and maybe even splurge and get an AR-15 to go with my Ruger mini-14 after all.
I suppose my timing could have been worse, but it is hard to see how.

I still intend to get both guns, but will wait a while to see if the frenzy dies down first.

I was at the gun show in Wichita yesterday, hardly a scrap of .223/5.56 ammo to be found, and then only a a high premium. A couple of dealers had AR-15's for sale, but only at a very high premium. High enough that while people were looking, they weren't buying, still that was early, maybe by the end of the day.... I left after about 3 hours although I did see a gun I want. A Norwegian Krag-Jorgensen labeled as a Danish gun.

Lot of stories of people with shiny new FID cards here in NJ. These scares probably sell more guns than anything else.

I have a lot of folks asking me to take them shooting for the first time.

(Let's hope its just a scare.)

I know of four people at my work who bought an AR immediately after Conn. All four were of the traditional 'hunters', who suddenly saw the need to 'buy while we can'.

I think the panic eventually begins to subside. I'm sure manufacturers will ramp up production, and Obama has already stretched his timeline from immediately to "some time in 2013." The longer this plays out the less chance there is of anything passing. Not that we should get complacent, by any means.

If you look on the crazy prices paid on gunbroker,alot of the high bidders are new people who just registered with the site. It does bring alot more people who dont know what they are doing.i saw a couple at the range with an ar15, shooting it with no iron sights,nothing,just a total flat top.Another guy next to me was suckered into a remington 1187 with a scope,he paid about 900 for it. they mounted this crappy scope & the crosshairs were off center, like an x.I had to tell him he should point the gun downrange when loading it, not laying the gun down on the table pointed sideways at me. A range officer came in & told hom the same.These are the kind of brain surgeons that are buying up the guns......

Grandkids

I picked up a few more ARs just so grandkids can get one if they do ban. If they can strike while the emotions are still high we will lose what few dems that were progun and probably lose a few reps as well. At the very least I believe we will lose hi cap mags. A lot of progun politicians of course move with the tide. I hope I am wrong.

my wife gave me the go ahead to make a few purchases. i bought an AR about a year ago and enjoy shooting it every couple of months, but nothing too crazy. i did just pick up a Springfield XDm 5.25 in 9mm at a very reasonable price and just got a Remington 1187 camo'd out with the thumbhole grip for a reasonable price as well.

so far as i can see, ARs, AKs, and anything that is routinely in a movie is twice its usual price. other than that, I see a lot more handguns selling with 'high capacity' mags in response to the proposed ban. the thumbhole stock reference got me thinking too, but i don't think there's too much panic buying outside of the usual suspects.

just take a look at a store's inventory and if you've followed them closely, i'm willing to bet their entire inventory is getting smaller, but only the AK/AR stuff is priced in response to the panic.

interesting stuff.

Yeah, I think things are a bit crazy. I'm watching armslist local listings and if folks are getting what they are asking for, as they say around here, well, god bless 'em.

There is a very clear market psychology at work right now. People see crazy prices and they think - "If it is crazy now, then it will be insane tomorrow!". This is so ingrained in how people think that it is really hard to resist. The result is that people here, as in the stock market, do the opposite of what they should, they buy HIGH and sell LOW.

There is always uncertainty, but you can look at the landscape and at least make some, what I think, are reasonable guesses about the future. Full disclosure, I'm a lifelong staunch Democrat, but if it is well nigh impossible to get the GOP in the House to agree to raising taxes on income over $250k, then I don't see a huge opening for a grand 'assault weapons ban' that is being talked about.* I think there might be some folks that have thought about this, decided differently, and have still decided to rush out and stuff as much money in the pockets of sellers that they can. I for one, am just going to bide my time, ride things out.

*Sorry I don't mean to derail the discussion but I mean solely that both the tax issue and a ban on 'assault weapons' poll with quite high approval, although only the former really has a good amount of consistent support, the latter appears weaker in terms of support once you look at the crosstabs in the polls.

Don't really like the ar platform and don't shoot them very often or at all, prefer .22s and shotguns. That being said, from the last ammo shortage, I saw the writing on the wall and bought a few black rifles to hold. I'm not in front of the curve very often, but I was this time. Never thought I'd see panic buying like this. I don't expect a AWB, but just the talk of one will keep the market price high.

The December NICS numbers should be out in a couple of days. I would guess the December total will be 2 or 3 times larger than the previous record month.

Politicians have a lot of respect for the NRA's 4 million members. And I think politicians would realize the implication of several million voters dropping +/-$1,000 each on guns in a single month.

My liberal yet anti- gun control wife asked me "Did you panic buy anything?"

I told her "I got one stripped lower."

Her response: "Cool."

Did I mention she LOVES my 16" HBAR A1?

IMO it's a lot of first-timers who don't know any better.

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Based on what I am reading on gun forums, this isn't the case. Yes, there are first-timers, but there are also a lot of old timers who are wanting to get one more. The difference is that a lot of them were purchased because Obama got re-elected, first, the CT happened and the second and larger panic started.

I disagree with the predictions of buyers remorse and used AR's flocking for sale in a few months.

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There was a good bit of buyer's remorse after Obama was first elected. I don't see where paying 20-100% over msrp will not cause remorse when the prices go back down.

Gun sales are a measure of citizens trust in government and confidence in the economy. If the Republicans cave in on taxes a depression in the next two years is all but unavoidable. Tangable items such as guns will be necessary in the resulting social upheaval.

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Except for when they are reflective of panic buying because of a fear they will be banned. This panic isn't about the fiscal cliff.

And I think politicians would realize the implication of several million voters dropping +/-$1,000 each on guns in a single month.

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What is the implication? What was it back in 1994 and 2008/9?

I've seen mostly new buyers. I have several Ar's but jumped on a decent AK. It was probably $100 more than 2 weeks ago, but I consider it insurance. After all this administration jammed through the biggest bungling health care bill, why should I not think they can jam an awb through again?

How I wish I would have been able to buy a full auto M16 years ago before the ban.

I don't own a AR and most likely never will. I see too many people trying to get them to run right. I'll just stick with the AK's since they are fool proof.

FWIW, I went to the D.C. gun show in Chantilly. Was there on the first day an hour before opening. The line of TICKET holders waiting for the doors to open not only wrapped around the building, but then did the Disney zig zag back and forth 3 times.

I think a new record for attendance was set. While in line, I chatted with the folks around me and found that quite a few were first time buyers, wanting to get something before the Jack booted Feinstien police make their rounds to confiscate weapons.

KKKKFL

Double Naught,

Given the lack of understanding of many posters of how laws are enacted and the limits on the real power of the President you can certainly make a strong case. But I don’t how you can ignore the worst recession since the 1930’s, the hugh job losses, lack of good paying full time jobs, a massive new Federal health care program and the lack of support of Conservative principles by the Republican party as major reasons also. Maybe this is just a time bomb waiting on a spark?

Double Naught Spy said:

What is the implication? What was it back in 1994 and 2008/9?

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Calls, letters and emails to members of Congress reflect voter opinions. Organizations like the NRA -and their membership size- reflect voter opinions. And voters opinions are particularly powerful when they speak with their wallets, as the December NICS numbers will probably show a record number of gun sales. Talk may be cheap, but ARs are not and any smart politician will recognize the difference that people buying guns now have strong feelings about the issue of gun control.

NICS did not exist in 1994 and there were no other sources of immediately available hard data to reflect the reaction of gun owners ... until voters went to the polls.

There was no immediate threat of legislation in 2008/9. Nevertheless, a 30% increase in NICS checks in the month of the 2008 election may have sent a message; Obama certainly avoided gun control during his first term.

aka108 said:

I don't own a AR and most likely never will. I see too many people trying to get them to run right. I'll just stick with the AK's since they are fool proof.

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Your loss.

I'd been saving up for a SCAR 17 for a bit....but with the tragic events that have transpired over the past few months, the prices jumped to over $4000 and mags going for upward of $150 a piece. It's hard to justify spending that much for a single 16" rifle.

I ended up going with a Noveske 300blk upper + Noveske genII lower + vltor emod + geissele sd3g. I was fortunate enough to get most of the parts from Midway for standard retail prices. (I assumed that the most expensive retail parts would be the last parts to sell out) The lower I bought on gunbroker, and definitely overpaid by a couple hundred dollars; but, I figured that it would be offset my the money I save building the AR myself.

I don't blame any newbies for panicking.....IMHO, the more 'pro small-government' people that are armed the better.

I'd like to see stats on new buyers v. accumulators. New buyers are good for us, and the country. I'd read that many of the NICS statistics didn't new buyers as much as people that are stockpiling guns. IMHO, the more new buyers, especially paying $1,000+ for their guns, the less likely they are to tolerate a new ban, or a prohibition on selling your own guns.

I'm hoping we get tons of new owners, then tons of bargain guns on the market next year.

I wonder if after the ban is voted on (and assuming it fails) if the current ramped-up production models will oversaturate the market and prices will drop until the supply is used up?

Here is what I am seeing locally in colorado. The normal priced ar's started to disapear in the first two days then most everything doubled in price. At the show this weekend the decent priced ones where sold and at the end of the show there were alot of ar's left on the tables. saw alot of them walking around and most of them still had them when they left.
Hi cap mags like pmags went very fast the week before and were the ones everyone wanted. I was able to buy window ones for $25 by the end of the show.

The problem I see about now is you will really see the drop off in handguns being on the market as dealers stocks are being depleated with no way to get more. The only high caps I can really find from the big makers are a few high cap glocks and they are getting harder to find.